Saturday, April 29, 2017

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (May 1 – May 5, 2017)

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (May 1 – May 5, 2017)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bullish
Last week, this pair opened with a massive gap-up, which also happened on other EUR pairs. Price managed to reach the resistance line at 1.0950, and then consolidated till the end of the week. The gap-up has forced a bullish bias to appear, but this may not last long because EURUSD are expected to become weak this week. While there are resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050, the support lines at 1.0900, 1.0850 and 1.0800 could be tested this week.    

Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF is in a short-term bearish mode, and price consolidated last week in the context of that short-term bearish mode. Within the last several days, price has not been able to move above the resistance level at 1.0000 or below the support level at 0.9900. A movement above the resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0100 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, while a movement below the support levels at 0.9900 and 0.9800 would reinforce the existing bearishness in the market.  

Dominant bias: Bullish   
Last week, price consolidated from April 24 to 26 and then resumed its upwards journey, which was started on April 10 (although the most significant bullish movement occurred on April 18). The distribution territory at 1.2950 was tested on Friday before the market closed. Since April 10, price has gone upwards by 570 pips, and this is just the beginning, because there is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and because the outlook on GBP pairs is also bullish for May. There may be some bearish attempts, but the bullish bias might survive till the end of May.     

Dominant bias: Bullish
USDJPY also opened with gap-ups at the beginning of last week, just as other JPY pairs did. The gap-up forced a bullish signal to form as price went further upwards, testing the supply level at 111.50. The bullish bias might hold for a few more days, (reaching the supply levels at 112.00, 112.50 and 113.00 at most), but the outlook on USDJPY is bearish for this week and this month. A major pullback would eventually happen.

Dominant bias: Bullish   
Last week, the market opened with an upward gaps, which was not filled because price even went further upwards on Tuesday, almost testing the supply zone at 122.00 and consolidating till the end of the week. This cross might go upward a bit further; though there is a high probability of strong selling pressures occurring this week and this month, which would override the current bullish signal. The outlook on JPY pairs is seriously bearish for May.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Today, I am a full-time active private trader and I am thankful that trading has eliminated the need for me to re-enter the corporate world. I’m also a full-time Mum to two fabulous kids who are benefiting from the time I’m now able to spend with them every single day… Really, this is a profession you can enter regardless of your educational background.” – Louise Bedford


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Friday, April 28, 2017

Focus on the trading process not the money

It may seem a contradiction to say that you don’t want to pay attention to the profit of a trade.  In fact, many of you might be saying that this guy must be smoking rope to say that profit is unimportant.  Well, to clarify, that is not what is being said.  Of course, profit is one of the main reasons why you are involved in trading in the financial markets.

However, when we discuss how you will garner your mental and emotional resources in order to become consistently successful, profit (in any one trade) is not where you want your focus to be. Profits come as a result of “probabilities” over a series of trades. In fact, profit can be a major distraction and the cause of erratic behaviors that beget unwanted results.  Let’s face it, results, consistent positive results, are what you want.Tweet: Let’s face it, results, consistent positive results, are what you want. Anything else is unacceptable.  So, your main trading trajectory must encompass this reality.  Consistently successful trading requires a laser focus on what-matters-most; alignment of body, mind and emotions; and an ability to be truly disciplined, for starters.

Honing your trading process and the focus of your trades.

The Distraction of Trading Profits
Let’s look at how focusing on profit can position you to attract the very undesirable results that you want to avoid.  Profit is transient which means that it is not only variable but it is random to the point of being capricious.  No matter how good your methodology, you cannot predict what price action will do.  The only thing that is certain about the markets is that they are unpredictable.   Due to this level of randomness, profit is an extremely inefficient data point to measure against results.

In fact, one of the worst things that can happen to you as a trader is to be profitable early in the game before you intimately know your strategy.  This type of profit is almost invariably luck.  Luck is totally unsustainable; and in your attempt to replicate these results you will reinforce bad rule violating behavior that is very hard to halt, creating many more losses as you attempt to extricate yourself from that abyss.  Furthermore, when you focus on profit alone, your attention is fragmented and your mental state is susceptible to distorting data due to a confirmation bias (the tendency to only perceive information that confirms your limiting beliefs about the current market and consequently denying information that is contrary but critically important).

Free Trading WorkshopActually, you want to approach the trading process with your eyes wide open and embracing the fact that any trade can lose, and some will.  No matter how strong your strategy, you must accept the randomness of the markets and therefore be very serious about protecting your capital; in other words, using and relying on your stops.  In this way, you will begin to manage your fear…a very important skill.

One of the facts about consistently successful traders is that many of them have blown up accounts; and they came back.  When this happened, they realized that the world didn’t come to an end and developed a deeper appreciation for the importance of their stops.  They created consistency in planning their trades, trading their plan, following all of their rules, and thereby developed the capacity for emotional strength and endurance in the trade.

Trading is a process oriented endeavor for those who are serious about becoming and remaining a consistently successful trader.  In any one trade, it is not about the outcome.  You must remain dispassionate about that and reserve all of your focus to be honed on what you are doing and how you are doing it.  This is what we teach in Mastering the Mental Game online and on-location courses.  Ask your Online Trading Academy representative for more information.  Also, get my book: From Pain to Profit: Secrets of the Peak Performance Trader.

Joyous Trading

Author: Dr. Woody Johnson

Article reproduced with kind permission of the author.

  The article is ended with more helpful quotes:

One of the biggest mistakes that newbie traders make is to give up on a trading strategy after a run of losing trades. The thinking behind doing this is understandable but very wrong. The thought is “If a strategy is losing trades, why keep doing it?” The point is that every trading strategy has losing trades!” – Jasper Lawler 

“Always keep in mind that trading is mainly a mind-game playing probabilities. Try to find a strategy that you understand and that fits to your personality and possibilities and then try to build the trade management together with the risk management around it. This will lead to much better results then searching for the best entry technique of all times.” – Andy Jordan

“Trading is not for anyone who has an unquenchable thirst for certainty. Uncertainty in trading is co-equal with insecurity.” – Joe Ross

“However, the truth is probably like most things somewhere in the middle and eventually with a level playing field (which there will probably never be) it comes down to the individual. In part this is why I like trading, it is a reflection of who you truly are, not what your circumstances have made. The market has no idea where you are from, what your social status is, your colour, your religion or your sex. It merely knows whether you have the attributes of a good trader or you don’t.” – Chris Tate wants you to make money from the markets

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Thursday, April 27, 2017

Annual Trading Forecast for AIG (2017)

AIG shares (NYSE:AIG) have been trending downwards in the past few months. There is a bearish bias on the market as shown by the analysis in the chart, although price may soon go upwards.

The ADX period 14 is not above the level 30, showing a current lack of momentum in the market. The DM+ also is intertwined with the DM- (another evidence of lack of momentum in the market). The MACD, default parameters, has its signal lines below the zero line, while its histogram is currently above the zero line. There are mixed signals in the market, and it may be OK to stay aside until there would be a directional movement.

AIG would soon begin trending seriously and coming months would show whether price would be going upwards or downwards.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

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Annual Trading Forecast for Nokia (2017)

Nokia stock (NYSE:NOK) is now a bull market. Price has currently gapped up, showing a serious bullishness in the market.

Price is above the EMA 21, and the Williams’ % Range period 20 has gone into the overbought territory. While there could be weak and transitory pullbacks along the way, the overall market movement would be bullish for this year.

Since December 2016, Nokia has been trending upwards (though there was some bearish correction in January 2017); and this is a trend that is expected to continue.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

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Monday, April 24, 2017

The Facts Of Luck

Sometimes, all your career needs is a little luck–even if you have to make it yourself. Here’s a realistic look at skill, luck, and what you can do to change your odds.

One of the greatest computer programmers of all time grew up near Seattle. He saw an upstart company, Intel, making computers on a chip and was among the first people to see the potential of these so-called microcomputers. He dedicated himself to writing software for the new device and, by one account, “wrote the software that set off the personal computer revolution.”

In the mid 1970s, he founded a company to sell software for micro-computers. In the early history of the company, “the atmosphere was zany,” and “people came to work barefoot, in shorts,” and “anyone in a suit was a visitor.” But the company was soon highly profitable, and by 1981 its operating system had a dominant share of the market for personal computers that used Intel microprocessors.

For all of its early triumphs, the company’s watershed moment came when IBM visited in the summer of 1980 to discuss an operating system for its new PC. After some negotiation, the two companies struck a deal. In August 1981, retailers offered the company’s software alongside the brand new IBM PC, and the company’s fate was sealed. The rest is history, as they say.

In case this story’s not familiar, here’s the ending. This pioneer of computer technology entered a biker bar in Monterey, California, on July 8, 1994, wearing motorcycle leathers and Harley-Davidson patches. What happened next is unclear, but he suffered a traumatic blow to the head from either a fight or a fall. He left under his own power but died three days later from the injury, complicated by his chronic alcoholism. He was fifty-two years old. He is buried in Seattle and has an etching of a floppy disk on his tombstone. His name is Gary Kildall.

You’d be excused for thinking that the first part of the story is about Bill Gates, the multibillionaire founder of Microsoft. And it is certainly tantalizing to ask whether Gary Kildall could have been Bill Gates, who at one point was the world’s richest man. But the fact is that Bill Gates made astute decisions that positioned Microsoft to prevail over Kildall’s company, Digital Research, at crucial moments in the development of the PC industry.

When IBM executives first approached Microsoft about supplying an operating system for the company’s new PC, Gates actually referred them to Digital Research. There are conflicting accounts of what happened at the meeting, but it’s fairly clear that Kildall didn’t see the significance of the IBM deal in the way that Gates did.

IBM struck a deal with Gates for a lookalike of Kildall’s product, CP/M-86, that Gates had acquired. Once it was tweaked for the IBM PC, Microsoft renamed it PC-DOS and shipped it. After some wrangling by Kildall, IBM did agree to ship CP/M-86 as an alternative operating system. IBM also set the prices for the products. No operating system was included with the IBM PC, and everyone who bought a PC had to purchase an operating system. PC-DOS cost $40. CP/M-86 cost $240. Guess which won.

But IBM wasn’t the direct source of Microsoft’s fortune. Gates did cut a deal with IBM. But he also kept the right to license PC-DOS to other companies. When the market for IBM PC clones took off, Microsoft rocketed away from the competition and ultimately enjoyed a huge competitive advantage.

When asked how much of his success he would attribute to luck, Gates allowed that it played “an immense role.” In particular, Microsoft was launched at an ideal time: “Our timing in setting up the first software company aimed at personal computers was essential to our success,” he noted. “The timing wasn’t entirely luck, but without great luck it wouldn’t have happened.”

Making Your Own Luck

Since luck is intimately intertwined in all of our lives, it comes as no surprise that there are plenty of aphorisms that address luck:

“You make your own luck.”
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
“I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.”
Preparation and hard work are essential elements of skill. They often lead to good outcomes. But the aphorisms don’t really address what’s happening. If you prepare and work hard, you are successful not because your luck improves. Luck doesn’t change at all. Only your skill improves. And you can work hard and prepare and build the best American diner on Route 66 just when the Interstate highway bypasses your town and puts you out of a job.

There’s another popular argument that says you can’t get lucky unless you get in luck’s way. For example, you can’t win the lottery unless you play. On one level, of course, this is true. But it glosses over two important points. Luck can be good or bad. While winning the lottery does seem like good luck, it’s hard to say that losing the lottery is bad luck. Losing the lottery is expected. Lotteries are designed to take in more money than they dole out, so they are a loser’s game in the aggregate. The main issue is that putting yourself in a position to enjoy good luck also puts you in a position to lose.

The other point is that the very effort that leads to luck is a skill. Say that you need to complete ten interviews with prospective employers to receive one job offer. Individuals who seek only five interviews may not get an offer, but those who go through all ten interviews will have an offer in hand by the end of the process. Getting an offer isn’t luck, it’s a matter of effort. Patience, persistence, and resilience are all elements of skill.

The best-known advocate for the idea that you can create your own luck is Richard Wiseman, a professor at the University of Hertfordshire who holds Britain’s Chair in the Public Understanding of Psychology. Wiseman’s investigations are offbeat and fun. For example, he conducted a “scientific search” for the world’s funniest joke. (The winner: Two hunters are out in the woods when one of them collapses. He doesn’t seem to be breathing and his eyes are glazed. The other guy whips out his phone and calls the emergency services. He gasps, “My friend is dead! What can I do?” The operator says, “Calm down. I can help. First, let’s make sure he’s dead.” There is a silence, then a shot is heard. Back on the phone, the guy says, “OK, now what?”) He also argues that he has found “a scientifically proven way to understand, control, and increase your luck.”

Wiseman collected a sample of hundreds of individuals and had them rate themselves on their beliefs about luck. He then sought to explain “the different ways in which lucky and unlucky people thought and behaved” and identified the “four principles of luck.” The principles include maximizing your chance opportunities, listening to your lucky hunches, expecting good fortune, and turning bad luck into good. Wiseman’s research is unfailingly lively and provocative and he comes across as an energetic and intellectually curious man. Unfortunately, good science this is not.

In one experiment, Wiseman asked people playing the U.K. National Lottery to submit a form that included information on how many tickets they intended to buy and whether they considered themselves lucky. Of the seven hundred–plus respondents, 34 percent considered themselves lucky, 26 percent unlucky, and 40 percent were neutral. Thirty-six of the respondents (about 5 percent) won money that night, split evenly between the lucky and unlucky people. Individuals lost £2.50 on average, just as you would expect according to the number of tickets purchased. Wiseman points out that this experiment shows that lucky people aren’t psychic (just in case you thought they were); he also rules out any relationship between intelligence and luck.

Suffice it to say that there is no way to improve your luck, because anything you do to improve a result can reasonably be considered skill.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 24, 2017

The EUR/USD went upwards last week, reaching the resistance line at 1.0750. The upwards movement was not significant enough to bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, unless the resistance line at 1.0800 is breached to the upside. The bearish correction that was experienced on Friday may bring good opportunities to go long at better prices, because the EUR/USD, as well as other EUR pairs, is expected to go further upwards this week.

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD went upwards last week, reaching the resistance line at 1.0750. The upwards movement was not significant enough to bring about a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, unless the resistance line at 1.0800 is breached to the upside. The bearish correction that was experienced on Friday may bring good opportunities to go long at better prices, because the EUR/USD, as well as other EUR pairs, is expected to go further upwards this week.

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument is neutral in the long term, and bearish in the short-term. This month, price has generally moved between the support level at 0.9900 and the resistance level at 1.0100. Movements above the psychological level at 1.0000 would cause short-term bullish signals, while movements below it would cause short-term bearish signals. For a directional bias to form in the long-term, there is a need for price to, either move above the resistance level at 1.0100 or below the support level at 0.9900.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD moved upwards by some 370 pips last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.2900, before price moved sideways till the end of last week. The sideways movement is merely a pause in the bullish journey; for momentum is expected to rise this week, pushing price towards the distribution territories at 1.2850, 1.2900 and 1.2950. The outlook on other GBP pairs are also bearish.

USD/JPY: This pair was caught in a short-term equilibrium phase, in the context of a downtrend. The equilibrium phase may end this week as price goes further southwards, reaching the demand levels at 108.50 and 108.00. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week.

EUR/JPY: In the context of a downtrend, this cross pair rose from the demand zone at 115.00, and reached the supply zone at 117.50 (a movement of 250 pips). Price got caught in some bearish retracement on Friday, and since the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish, what happened last week may bring nice opportunities to go short at better prices. This week, the cross could reach the demand zones at 116.00, 115.50 and 115.00.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

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