Daily analysis of major pairs for April 7, 2014

The USD/CHF tested the resistance level at 0.8950 last week. It would test that resistance level again this week.

EUR/USD:  In spite of the adamancy of the EUR, this pair remains a bear market. Yes, the outlook is bearish and the market is expected to continue going lower this week. The support line at 1.3700 has been challenged vigorously and it is almost giving way to the bears. The main target for this week is at the support line of 1.3600.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF tested the resistance level at 0.8950 last week. It would test that resistance level again this week. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and thus it is normal to expect that, with an increase in the buying pressure, the price would go further upwards.

GBP/USD:  Last week, the Cable was largely bearish. This constant inability to trend higher has already resulted in a bearish signal in the chart. One may want to seek short trades as the price is poised to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6550. Should that accumulation territory be breached to the downside, the next target would be the accumulation territory at 1.6500.

USD/JPY:  There has been a sharp reversal on the USD/JPY, though the long-term bias is bullish. From the supply level at 104.00, the price dropped by over 80 pips, closing at 103.24 on Friday (April 4, 2014). For the bullish bias to continue to make sense, the reversal must be contained at the demand level of 103.00.

EUR/JPY: The weakness of the EUR is affecting the movement on the cross – which is showing some sign of weakness. The price must stay above the demand zone at 141.00. Otherwise, the tide would turn southward.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,

Analytical expert

www.instaforex.com    

InstaForex Companies Group

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 7 - 11, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

The pair has remained bearish recently, going downwards slowly and steadily. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and with the continuation of the selling pressure, the price would easily test the support line at 1.3650. Should that support line be breached to the downside, the next target would be the support line at 1.3600. The resistance lines at 1.3750 and 1.3800 should act as good barriers to any possible rallies.

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish

Since March 20, 2014, there has been a bullish signal on this currency trading instrument, plus the price has moved upwards by over 150 pips. The confirmed bullish bias is expected to continue, especially with an increase in the stamina in the USD. The market may reach the resistance level at 0.8950. It should be noted that the resistance level has already been tested: the market would test it again and possibly breach it to the upside.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

It has been noted that the GBP has been weak against some major currencies, so it is not a surprise that it has assumed a bearish outlook against the USD. The previous flat movement in the price has resulted in a bearish run. The market is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.6600, which means that the price could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6500. This is our target for the week.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

Since March 21, a bullish run has been expected in the market. This market really went up and tested the supply level at 104.00 rigorously, but it failed to slash it to the upside and close above it. Historically, the bullish signal could go on till the April 10, 2014. Right now, there is a bearish correction in the chart. The correction would be seen as a good chance to buy long, provided it does not push the price below the demand level at 103.00.  

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish  

Just as the USDJPY and other JPY pairs are doing, this cross has generally been bullish. The possibility of corrections cannot be ruled out; for prices do not move in straight lines. However, the current southward correction in the market is strong enough to threaten the established bullish bias. The bullish bias is deemed to be valid as long as the price is able to stay above the demand zone at 141.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

                               

“Have you noticed that the hardest trades to take emotionally often turn out to be the best trades?” – Sam Seiden

Source: www.tallinex.com

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Premium Signals on the AUD Pairs (April 3 – 30, 2014)

“Given as few as 30 per cent winners, one can earn a fortune in the markets if only one knows how to handle winners and losers.” – Dirk Vandycke

Please let me introduce you to some premium signals that would be coming your way occasionally. The JPY Pairs Pullback signals are good and we’ll continue using them; plus the premium signals on other pairs and crosses would come your way occasionally. Historically, these premium signals are well above 70% accuracy, so with an RRR of 1:2 we should be happy. The 70% hit rate means that we’d win 7 years out of 10. The premium signals are used with the portfolio on which the JPY Pairs Pullback signals are traded.

Let’s take one example. Before the end of March 2014, it was expected that the JPY itself would become weak exponentially from March 21 to April 10: this is the reason behind the bullish outlook on all the JPY pairs. This shows that a serious strength or weakness in one currency would have proportional impact on every pair/cross that has the currency either as a base currency or a counter currency.

When the EUR becomes very weak, the EURUSD, the EURGBP, the EURCHF, the EURJPY, the EURAUD, the EURNZD and the EURCAD would be weak. A significant stamina in the NZD would push the NZDUSD upwards, but it would push the GBPNZD downwards. Can you now get the logic? The markets that are particularly difficult require approaches that are particularly creative, and with that we would be able to handle even volatile markets. Negativity and positivity have really shaped our success.

A market veteran understands that a positive expectancy strategy makes money only in the long run, yet she/he mayn’t know the outcome of the next orders being placed, and that’s why she/he employs risk control techniques in case something goes wrong. The risk control techniques are always used despite the level of confidence in the veteran.

We don’t win based on the amount of the trades we place, but on level of the sensibility behind the trades. We don’t want to enter the markets at random based on flimsy and shallow reasons. It’s thus more helpful to reduce the amount of trades one takes instead of opening too many trades that mayn’t improve one’s results over the time.

The piece is ended with the quote below:

“You must trade with your best when you are in the markets; nothing less will provide you with consistent winning results (where winning is defined as planning your trades, trading your plan and following all of your rules religiously).” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Now let’s go to the signals:

Instrument: AUDCAD

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.01675

Stop loss: 1.00669

Take profit: 1.03668

Instrument: AUDJPY

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 95.830

Stop loss: 94.814

Take profit: 97.819

Instrument: AUDUSD

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 0.92233

Stop loss: 0.91222

Take profit: 0.94222

Instrument: AUDNZD

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.07955

Stop loss: 1.06928

Take profit: 1.09928

Instrument: EURAUD

Order: Sell

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.49275

Stop loss: 1.50290

Take profit: 1.47290

Instrument: GBPAUD

Order: Sell

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.80508

Stop loss: 1.81532

Take profit: 1.78532

Instrument: AUDCHF

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 0.81770

Stop loss: 0.80750

Take profit: 0.81787

NB: 1% per trade is risked. All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired. A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

ADVFN may reach the low at 2.50 before bouncing upwards

ADVFN shares (LSE:AFN) are bearish: they may go further south until they reach the low at 2.50. Should that low (demand level) succeed in checking further bearish move, the shares may bounce upwards from there. Someone says bull markets are fun. I say bear markets are also fun, aren’t they? In bear market, short-sellers can earn a fortune.

In the chart, there are EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. As you can see, all the EMAs indicate the current weakness of the market. It is not wise to go long now… until the price becomes even cheaper. Meanwhile, the bears are enjoying the ride.

Conclusion: ADVFN shares have been falling since early February 2014, but they may reverse at the aforementioned demand level. Should market players judge the fundamentals of a company as satisfactory, certain bulls may intervene and purchase the shares at a lower price, and this could halt further bearish plunge as the shares gain some stamina.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“So often, traders and investors that simply follow the news and fundamentals think that the current trend can last forever, but we all know that is not true.” - Nicholas Santiago

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

BP Stock Breaks Out to the Upside

BP stock (NYSE:BP) has broken out to the upside and would continue going further north.

We want to buy when the trend is strong and stay aside when it is not strong. When the trend in the market is unclear, one would want to apply some filter so as to avoid bogus indications, which may cause fewer indications but higher accuracy. When the uptrend is clear, we would seek long trades only.

It can be seen that the price is making further northward attempts after it broke out upwards. Trading above the upper Trendline, the price has closed above the accumulation territory at 48.10. The RSI period 14 is also above the level 50, and therefore it is logical to go long.

Conclusion: BP could break the distribution territory at 50.00 to the upside, while going towards another distribution territories at 60.00 and 70.00. This, nevertheless, does not rule out the possibilities of bearish corrections along the way. Any southward corrections along the way may cause emotional reactions among market players which could result in panic smoothing and deeper corrections.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“Not trading in a methodical and tested system, but rather relying on emotion or a must-win attitude to create profits, indicates the person is gambling in the markets and unlikely to succeed over the course of many trades.” - Cory Mitchell

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha