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Friday, November 6, 2015

Louis Bacon: A Rare Trading Genius

 INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 16

“…Remember to view setbacks, losses and failures as learning opportunities. All great achievers have made innumerable mistakes and have failed, that is what provided the “experience” and the “education.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Name: Louis Bacon
Date of birth: July 25, 1953
Nationality: American
Occupation: Hedge Funds Manager

Career
Born in Raleigh, North Carolina, Louis attended Episcopal High School in Alexandria, Virginia. He went to Middlebury College in Vermont, earning a B.A in American literature. In 1981, he got an MBA degree in finance from Columbia Business School.

After getting his MBA, he worked in various capacities at various firms and companies like Bankers Trust, Walter N. Frank & Co, New York Cotton Exchange, and Shearson Lehman Brothers. He founded Remington Trading Partners in 1987 and began to forecast the market crashes and rallies. He traded according to his own forecasts (something that most analysts today don’t do) and made huge amount of money from that.

He founded Moore Capital Management LLC in 1989 with the $25,000 he inherited from his family. Needless to say, his ventures became hugely successful.  In 2006, Forbes referred to him as the 746th richest person on this planet. In the world’s rich list, he took the 736th position in the year 2011, and he was named the 238 richest American in 2010.

In the year 2010, Louis Bacon was worth $100,600,000,000.

He’d 4 children from his first marriage. He was remarried in 2007. In November 2007, he bought a $175,000,000-property in Costilla County, Colorado, from the Forbes family. He’s also supported political parties and causes.

Insights
  1. When did you start trading? Have you faced any challenges? Most trading masters faced losses in the past. Louis started trading with a low interest loan he collected while he was till at Columbia, he lost money during his first 3 semesters. He’d to take another loan from his dad in order to stay afloat. In the 4th semester, he recovered his losses and made profits. Too many people quit trading after the first or second series of losses without being aware that they might become very rich in future if they held out long enough. Someone we call a genius today refused to give up when things seemed hopeless. Louis didn’t quit and he’s a billionaire today. Do you know the value of a billion dollars in terms of USD?

  1. As a speculator you must embrace disorder and chaos. This is what Louis believes. The unpredictability and uncertainties of the trading environment must be embraced and mastered before we can become triumphant in spite of what the market throws at us. We can make money in spite of the fact that the market is uncertain and unpredictable.

  1. When you become rich, you will easily engage in other activities in which you’re interested. Just like Louis Bacon, you might want to engage in philanthropy. Louis founded the Moore Charitable Foundation (MCF) in 1992, to provide financial support to nonprofit organizations that work to preserve and protect wildlife habitat and improve water systems. He’s also contributed millions of dollars to other environmental and conservation organizations, and thus won well-deserved recognition for doing this. In order to emphasize his conservationist views, he says: “I am a conservationist. It is in my DNA… When a profit-seeking company proposes to take citizens' private land away for its own gain, people should stand up for their rights…We are too quickly losing important landscapes in this country to development - and I worry that if we do not act to protect them now, future generations will grow up in a profoundly different world.”

Conclusion: The best way to cut your learning curve and achieve a specific result is to find people who’ve already achieved what you want and then model their behavior. Louise Bedford says: Find a mentor, no matter what the cost. A mentor makes a huge difference in your development. Of course, if you have a spare 10 – 20 years up your sleeve to perfect your skills alone, then by all means do so. However, most people want more immediate results. I am where I am because I found good mentors and I followed their advice. Failure can take a great personal cost, and a mentor can help you avoid errors. I don’t know how people can begin a business without mentors to help them. (Source: Tradinggame.com.au). 

This piece is ended with a quote from Louis: 

“The ability to manage large assets well - it's like being Michael Jordan or winning the gold in the Olympics; it's what you aspire to.”




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Is the Current Bullish Trend on Bitcoin Sustainable?

It is interesting to see that Bitcoin is strengthening seriously against USD (BTCUSD). Now that certain pairs and crosses are choppy, consolidating, and reversing, it is a surprise that Bitcoin is rallying significantly against USD. The cryptocurrency formed a solid base in the month of September. From that base a strong rally has started, which is still valid right now. This kind of a strong trending mode is attractive because it is an ideal market in which investors, trend-follower, position traders and swing followers can make good profits. Since the beginning of October till now, price has moved upwards by roughly 23,000 pips, prior to the current bearish correction in the market.

Those who were long on Bitcoin since October should be very happy right now. Great profits come when price is trending fast – a joy to directional traders. One of the best ways to make profits from the market is to trade an instrument which sincerely breaks out of a solid base. There must be a strong buying or selling pressure for this king of breakout to be significant, and that is what is needed to get rid of a trendless situation in the market.

It is perceived that strong buying or selling pressures are what can force price to leave a strong base and go northward or southward, thereby disregarding any support and resistance levels on bigger timeframes. The higher the timeframe is, the more serious a trend is, when located in the chart. Whenever a market is in a serious trending mode, just like Bitcoin, then there is a big momentum behind it.  

Without mincing words, there is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the Bitcoin market. The bullish trend is vivid on the daily chart, the 4-hour chart and the hourly chart. Since price does not move in a straight line, the current bearish correction is normal, and the bullish trend is expected to resume soon, taking the price higher by several thousands of pips. There are accumulation territories at 304.00, 300.00 and 280.00; which would support the validity of the current bias as long as they are not breached to the downside. The months of November 2015 to April 2016 ought to favor highly predictable price movements on Bitcoin, even if things eventually turn bearish; the bearish movements ought to be directional.

However, the current bullish movement could hold out till the end of this year. In case the ongoing correction proves to be a pullback in the context of an uptrend, price would eventually reach the distribution territories at 485.00, 500.00 and 520.00.

NB: This article is for analytical purposes only. It is not meant to be a trading recommendation.   


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (November 2015)

Gulf keystone stock (LSE:GKP) is bearish in outlook and this is the trend that is supposed to continue holding out for the rest of this year. The hope of a bullish recovering has been dashed for the year.

In the chart, we can see that the price is currently below the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. This means the signal in the market is bearish. It means that the selling pressure could continue driving the price lower and lower and lower. It means long trades are never recommended.

The low of the year 2015, which was formed in August, could be tested again before the year runs out.  

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“We do not have control about price direction. We only can control our entry and exit levels, the size of the position and hence our potential profits/losses… Once I recognized that I had to accept uncertainty, I searched for a technique to implement this in my trading.” – Christiaan van der Meer

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Optibiotix H Is a Buyer’s Dream

Optibiotix H. shares (LSE:OPTI) are trending upwards nicely. This is a ray of light in the tunnel of bearish stocks: A silver lining in the dark clouds. The price is expected to continue trading north in the next several months (even years).

The ADX period 14 is at the level 30, showing a considerable momentum in the market. The ADX DM+ is above the DM-, meaning that the bulls dominate the bears in the market. The MACD (default parameters) have both its signal lines and histogram cleanly above the zero line. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the price should continue moving northward as said before.

It has been noticed that even some highly performing stock traders and hedge fund managers are invested in stocks like Optibiotix H. – and many other stocks in the healthcare, medical research and biotech sectors. They do this for a good reason.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Price pays – For it is the difference between prices when we buy and sell that makes (or costs) us money.” – Dirk Vandycke

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Sunday, November 1, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for November 2, 2015

After testing the accumulation territory at 1.5250, the Cable spiked upwards last week. However, the overall bias remains bearish and it cannot be rendered invalid unless the distribution territory at 1.5500 is overcome. Until that happens, any rallies could be taken as mere long squeezes (transitory rallies).      

EUR/USD:  This pair tested the support line at 1.0900, and later bounced upwards in the context of a downtrend. Nevertheless, the overall bias remains bearish and unless the price goes above the resistance line at 1.1150 (which would require a serious buying pressure), the bias would remain bearish. The support line at 1.0900 could thus be tested again in case the selling pressure resumes in earnest. The outlook on the USD is bullish for the month of November 2015.   
  

USD/CHF: This pair tested the resistance level at 0.9950, and later got corrected downwards in the context of an uptrend. Nevertheless, the overall bias remains bullish and unless the price goes below the support level at 0.9750 (which would require a serious selling pressure), the bias would remain bullish. The resistance level at 0.9950 could thus be tested again in case the buying pressure resumes in earnest.    

GBP/USD:  After testing the accumulation territory at 1.5250, the Cable spiked upwards last week. However, the overall bias remains bearish and it cannot be rendered invalid unless the distribution territory at 1.5500 is overcome. Until that happens, any rallies could be taken as mere long squeezes (transitory rallies).     

USD/JPY: Although the current outlook on this pair is bullish, the price has not made any serious directional movement so far. What can be seen in the chart is the alternating movements between the bulls and the bears: The price needs to continue moving upwards, otherwise, the market could enter another equilibrium phase.

EUR/JPY: This cross first went south last week and it then moved upwards in the context of a downtrend. Normally, the cross would be weak as long as the EUR is weak, but this can be reversed in case the JPY becomes weaker than the EUR. Except in certain cases, the JPY pairs could rally significantly this month.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html