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Monday, June 6, 2016

Monthly Forecasts for CFDs (June 2016)

AUS200

Dominant bias: Bullish
This market is in a precarious situation. While the bias on it is bullish, bears are very active in it the present, and this has made short-term bearish signals to be generated on smaller timeframes like hourly and 4-hour charts (whereas the long-term signal is bullish). Unless price goes below the support lines at 5200.0 and 5100.0, it would be safe to look for ways to buy pullbacks in this market.

SPX500
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since May 24, 2016, SPX500 has been trending upwards in a directional mode, though price has consolidated in the past few days. There is a “buy” signal in this market – it is expected that price would continue going upwards this month, reaching the resistance levels at 2120.0 and 2130.0. As long as price does not go below the support level at 2040.0, the “buy” signal would be rational.

US30
Dominant bias: Bullish
Although the dominant bias on this CFD is bullish, it is a very weak one. The market needs to go further upward in order to clear the ambiguity surrounding it, otherwise, things can turn neutral. A movement above the distribution territory at 18000.0 would reinforce the existing bullish outlook, while a movement below the accumulation territory at 17430.0 would render the bullish outlook invalid, leading to a more conspicuous bearish presence.

GER30
Dominant bias: Bullish
In the context of an uptrend, GER30 moved downwards last week, going below the supply levels at 10200.0 and 10160.0. Further southward movement, especially towards the demand levels at 9900.0 and 9850.0, would result on a bearish outlook. Right now, it is expected that price would make attempt to rally, for those demand levels ought to serve as checks to bears’ threats.

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bullish
Price has come down so far this month, but that is not yet significant enough to result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Bulls ought to push price north by at least, 1000 points this month. For a Bearish Confirmation Pattern not to form here, price needs to stop going south. Should price drop further by 500 points, long trades would no longer look logical here.



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


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Sunday, June 5, 2016

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 6, 2016

The USD/JPY dropped 450 pips last week, testing the demand level at 106.50. The next target to be reached is the demand level at 105.50, since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There is also a possibility of bullish reversal this week.

EUR/USD: This pair shot upwards on Friday, overturning the bearish outlook on the market. Since price has moved upwards by 220 pips, a bullish signal has been formed. However, EUR needs to continue to be stronger than USD for this pair to continue moving upwards; otherwise things could reverse on favor of bears. After all, the outlook on EUR is bearish for the month of June.



USD/CHF: The USD/CHF consolidated from Monday to Friday and then plummeted on Friday. The bearish movement was very serious – occurring opposite to the direction of the EUR/USD. Further bearish movement could cause price to reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650 this week.

GBP/USD: Cable went up towards the distribution territory at 1.4700, where further rally was halted as price declined towards the accumulation territory at 1.4400. That was a 300-pip movement. Despite determined efforts from bears, price was unable to go below the accumulation territory at 1.4400, and as such, there is a rally expectation on the GBP/USD. GBP pairs would move seriously this month – in bearish and bullish modes. 

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY dropped 450 pips last week, testing the demand level at 106.50. The next target to be reached is the demand level at 105.50, since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There is also a possibility of bullish reversal this week.

EUR/JPY: This cross tested the supply zone at 124.00, and then dropped by 300 pips last week. Price closed at 121.07 on Friday, just below the supply zone at 121.50. Further decline is possible, which might take price towards demand zones at 120.50 and 120.00. There is also a possibility of reversal this week.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html 


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Saturday, June 4, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 6 - 10, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
                                          
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair moved sideways from Monday to Friday, in the context of a downtrend. The downtrend was forcefully overturned as the pair shot skywards by 220 pips on Friday, closing at 1.1365 on the same day. The bias has turned bullish, but there is a great challenge for bulls this week. While the pair could go further north, there would be a serious bearish correction when USD gains stamina versus EUR. The outlook on EUR is bearish for this month. EUR could be become weak versus other currencies – and USD is no exception.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish  
USDCHF tested the resistance level at 0.9950 several times last week, but it could not stay above it (let alone reaching the resistance level at 1.0000, which is a parity area). Price consolidated till Friday and then broke downwards, almost reaching the support level at 0.9750. This significant bearish breakout has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price could reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, as long as bears gain upper hands here. Should EURUSD loses its strength, USDCHF would experience some buying pressure.      

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
GBPUSD first attempted to go up last week, tested the distribution territory at 1.4700, and then moved south 300 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4400, before price made a rally effort on Friday, June 3. Most pairs and crosses would experience low volatility in June, save GBP pairs and NZD pairs (for NZD also would become strong versus other currencies in June). Yes, GBP pairs would experience high volatility this month; which would be a series of bearish and bullish movements. This week, some buying pressure might be witnessed on GBPUSD, for the accumulation territory at 1.4400 has checked repeated bearish attacks.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and began to drop like a stone from Tuesday. The bearish movement on Friday was the strongest, bringing the market to at least, 420 pips towards the south last week. Although this bearish trend could reverse this week, it is possible for price to reach the demand levels 106.00 and 105.50 before the potential reversal.          
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross made some effort to go upwards last week, but this effort was rendered futile after price reached the supply zone at 124.00. Since price could not break above that supply zone, a clean decline was witnessed as price came down, closing below the supply zone at 121.50. Just like USDJPY, it is possible for price to reach the demand zones at 120.50 and 120.00; even if there would be a bullish reversal after that.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“My world is trading and markets. This is where I am very comfortable and extremely confident…” – Sam Seiden


 What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

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Thursday, June 2, 2016

Difficult Markets Produce Fine Results – Part 1

“Trading requires you to be wrong on a regular basis – in fact you are wrong more often than you are right. And this constant grind requires a certain degree of fortitude to endure.” – Chris Tate

There’s no way to become victorious easily.

You don’t become victorious by trying to be victorious. You become victorious be surmounting the challenges life puts in your way.

Trading success doesn’t come by accident. You’d attain it through hard work, humble acceptance of reality, faithful endurance under difficult challenges. What a remarkable example for many traders today! Never forget that your breakthrough is largely in your own hands.

Trading mastery isn’t beyond your ken, though you might emote that nothing good comes cheap.  Where you’re coming from doesn’t matter, but where you’re going. Your dismal trading experiences shouldn’t deter you from attaining your dreams as a victorious trader.

Difficult Markets Produce Fine Results
Unlike those who become envious and sad when they see their fellow human beings making solid achievements in life, I’m happy whenever someone becomes successful in life. I’m happy whenever I come across a successful trader, just because it strengthens my conviction that it’s possible to be a winning trader. This also serves as a powerful testimony to doubting Thomases in the public.

As a one-on-one trading coach (not via webinars or trading rooms), I’ve trained many people the art of trading and I’m happy whenever they go on to become successful market players.

Some people completed their training and then abandoned the markets. Some didn’t bother to finish their training. Some completed their training and then abandoned the Golden Rules given to them, doing something else. Every strategy under the sun must be accompanied by the Golden Rules; otherwise the joy of trading won’t last long.

I need to mention this fact: Trainees simply do themselves a favor when they get coached by successful traders who’re also talented teachers. It’s common for someone to think they’re doing you a favor by hiring you to coach them. Unless the coach isn’t a successful trader on her/his own (which is very common), it’s the coach who’s doing the trainees a favor by revealing their winning systems, which took them many years to perfect.

It’s a great joy for me to see that some of my former trainees are now successful – a good evidence that difficult markets produce fine results.

One of those successful traders who happened to be a past trainee is called Caleb by name. He got coached several years ago and undoubtedly, he was practicing with the markets.

Last year, some of his acquaintances told me that Mr. Caleb had been making money from the markets. That was no big deal, for the Golden Rules of trading work for everybody who applies them faithfully, but what made me surprise was the fact that year 2015 was a very difficult year for traders, and if anyone made money in the markets in that year, then it’d be much easier for the person to make money in years when the markets become favorable.

I began to plan an appointment with Mr. Caleb because his trading results in the year 2015 were 3 times better mine (who’s his former coach). Some days later, he sent me his full account history. I was amazed to see that he made decent profits in the most difficult months of that year. This guy wasn’t a lucky gambler who used high risk to make maximum profits in a short period of time. Instead, he’s a conservative trader who goes for very small but consistent profits.

I was also amazed by these facts I discovered in his trading habits:

  1. His was trading manually
  2. His trading took him only 5 hour per week, for he was then working full time for an employer
  3. His position sizing methods were safe and sensible
  4. He used stop loss and stuck to them religiously
  5. He’s one of the most disciplined traders I’ve ever seen. He sometimes cuts his negative positions before they hit his stops
  6. He sometimes used take profits, but not always (a method exposing him to unlimited gains which can wipe out his many small losses)
  7. He’s the fortitude and patience to endure days or weeks of losses, knowing that some big wins would soon wipe out those losses

The above list is part of his secrets. I think some of these things are what every trader should do, irrespective of their trading methodology.

One day, as I was walking beside a paved road on a campground, he pulled up his jeep and gave me a lift. We talked briefly and he gave me an appointment. I appreciated this because he was a very busy man.

That’s another point. He was able to trade his way to success despite his very tight schedule, contrary to the excuses certain people give for not trying trading (they wrongly think they’re too busy to trade). I was able to see Mr. Caleb where he lived. He told me that the trading method he used was similar to what I gave him several years ago, but with some modification.

What was this modification? That was what I wanted to know. Clearly a former trainee can become better than his coach. Mr. Caleb is a good example. He’s a bright trader indeed! 

I interviewed him about his entry criteria, risk control style and money management approach. What were his stop loss and take profit levels? What factors did he consider before making trades? What about his exit strategies? Mr. Caleb took out his laptop and explained everything to me in a generous and transparent way.

The interview was an eye-opener. It would be posted in the second part of these series, so that you can gather some points that might potentially help you in your own trading too.   

This piece is ended by the quote below:

“The fact that I trade my own strategy, in my own broker account, lets people know that I believe in my own work, and I'm willing to stand behind it with my own money.” - Jan Roozenburg



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What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (June 2016)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold dropped persistently in May 2016, reaching a high of 1303.53 and a low of 1199.79.  This has resulted in a clean bearish outlook on the market, and in spite of the present weak bullish attempt, price is expected to continuing moving downwards this month, reaching the demand levels at 1170.00 and 1150.00. It is possible that price goes beyond these demand levels. The bearish outlook would be valid as long as price does not go above the supply levels at 1280.00 and 1290.00.   


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish  
Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver also moved downwards seriously last month, going below the supply zones at 16.5600 and 16.2900. Price reached a low of 15.920 in that month, causing a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market is currently quiet – which is a pause in the downtrend. Further downward move would resume this month, and could potentially take price towards the demand zones at 15.4600 and 15.000. The supply zones at 16.5000 and 17.000 would try to halt possible rallies along the way. 

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Domiant Bias: Bullish
Bitcoin essentially consolidated in the months of March and April 2016 (though there was a vivid rally in the middle of April). In May, Bitcoin consolidated again, but broke out significantly in the last several days of the month. Needless to say, the breakout favored bulls: Price skyrocketed by over 10,000 pips within May 26 to 29, followed by the current shallow correction. The correction could continue, according to the behavior of this cryptocurrency, but it would not render the ongoing Bullish Confirmation Pattern ineffective. It is expected that price would go above the distribution territory at 600.00 this month.

Source: www.tallinex.com   

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html


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