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Tuesday, October 4, 2016

The Benefits of Being a Stupid Employee

The importance of sucking at a new job for a year or two

You suck.

Also: I suck.

I don’t know what it is that you suck at, but you suck at something very important. You suck at things you will someday not suck at. But for now, you are not good at these things. In fact, you suck at them.



This must be accepted.

It might take a while. So I’ll wait.

You know what? I’ll do it too.

While we’re both accepting that we suck, let’s talk about failure.

Failure is huge right now. It’s being studied. It’s being written about. It’s being blogged about. “Fail early and often,” we’re told. “Surrender to the pain of failure.” “Failure is fundamental.” The latest key to success is to fail but to fail in the right way.

But is there a right way to fail? Is there a right way to submit work you know is half-baked, like I did during my first few months at Esquire? Is there a right way to stumble through a presentation to the sales staff, like I did during my first few months at Esquire? Is there a right way to indiscreetly talk about another magazine at a party and then turn around and two editors from that magazine are right behind you, like I did during my first few months at Esquire? Is there a right way to have a story killed? Is there a right way to do shit work?

I don’t think actual failure is what’s being discussed. “Failure” is just the word that makes the books and articles seem more intriguing than they actually are. Actual failure is awful and expensive. It’s devastating. Failure teaches you nothing. You should not consider “failure” a positive outcome. Not early. Not often. Not ever, if you can help it. Really, what’s being discussed is: mistakes.

All of the studies that the books and blog posts cite basically boil down to two messages. 1. Humans hate to make mistakes. 2. A key determinant of success is both accepting that you will make mistakes and paying attention to the mistakes that you make.

One of the most cited experts on this topic is Stanford psychologist Carol Dweck, who pioneered the idea of “mind-sets.” People with “fixed mind-sets,” she says, believe their abilities are unchangeable—a belief that causes them to shy away from situations in which they might fail. By contrast, people with “growth mind-sets” embrace challenges because they believe they can become smarter and more capable even if they don’t succeed. They’re willing to get things wrong, but more important, they’re ready to listen to the feedback. Screwing up is not a defining thing. This is such a useful attitude to have. I’ve been at my current job for 10 years and I’ve only just recently adopted this mentality. It’s made my work better. It’s made the process more efficient. And I have a lot more time to spend with my family.

What people with a growth mind-set know is that mistakes are useful when you’re willing to have a conversation about them, when you’re willing to be corrected.

But actual failure? Humiliating, devastating failure?

Aside from teaching us that certain decisions are bad decisions and that we should not make them twice, failure totally blows. But mistakes are amazing.

The main failure of my first couple of years in New York was the shame I felt at making mistakes. If I have a regret, this is it. I was too caught up in the fear of making mistakes. I sometimes acted timidly. In the short term, I probably did “better” work, but in the long term I did worse work because I didn’t allow myself to get my mistakes over with early. I would stay at work until midnight working on a headline. I would refine a single joke over two or three days. There is nothing wrong with focusing on the details. But focusing on the details at the expense of your personal life is not a good idea.

Now that I’m a manager, if I see someone hanging on to something for what I think is too long, I will tell them to give it to me. As is. Just turn it over. Doing work too fast is a bad idea. But doing work too slow is a terrible idea. The last thing a boss wants is to be left without any options if the work isn’t good enough. Being fastidious is possibly the worst thing a young worker can do. The work is probably not going to get to where it needs to be no matter how long you hang on to it. So turn it in early and then make corrections. You’re supposed to do bad work.

Everyone wants you to do bad work.

Everyone.

Your boss wants you to get it out of your system and learn what not to do. He’s certainly expecting it.

And your peers want you to make mistakes too. Either they understand the value of a fearless colleague or they just want to feel superior...if they even notice. Loads of studies have shown that we tend to think people pay attention to us twice as much as they actually do. This is the spotlight effect. (Turns out my mom was right about this, which she repeated to me on a weekly basis during my adolescence.)

And you don’t realize it, but you want to do bad work too. Because in every bit of bad work, there is always a kernel of something good. Bad work is 2 to 13 percent good. Your job is to pick through the mess you create and find that good. Other people will help you find it. Let them.


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Monthly Forecasts for CFDs (October 2016)

AUS200

Dominant bias: Bullish
AUS200 started September on a bearish note, but ended it on a bullish note. From September 1 to 13, the market dipped by 2500 points from. Since then, the market has rallied by 3300 point till date.  There are Bullish Confirmation Patterns in the 4-hour and daily charts, which reveal that further northward movement is possible. Next targets are the resistance lines at 5550.0, 5650.00 and 5750.0 this month.



SPX500
Dominant bias: Neutral  
SPX500 moved sideways last month – and the bias on both the 4-hour and the daily charts is neutral. Price moved sideways in the first few days of September, and then dipped from September 9 – 11. After this, price became quite volatile and ended up consolidating till the end of the month. The neutrality of the bias is supposed to continue this month until “something’ pushes the market out of balance. The most probable direction is to the south, for the bullish trend has reached maturity.

US30
Dominant bias: Neutral  
The situation surrounding this market is quite similar to the situation surround the SPX500.  Price moved sideways in the first few days of September, and the dipped from September 9 – 11. After this, the market was riddled with high volatility and eventually moved sideways till the end of the month. This neutral outlook may continue this month until the market starts trending seriously, which would cause a directional bias to form. The most probable direction is towards the south.

GER30
Dominant bias: Bullish  
In spite of a serious volatility on this trading instrument, there remains a bullish indication on it. Bulls have succeeded in preventing large pullbacks in the market; plus there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the daily chart. The instrument may thus attain the supply levels at 10650.0, 10750.0 and 10850.0 in the month of October. The demand levels at 10180.0 and 10150.0 should resist any bearish attempts along the way. 

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bullish
FRA40 experienced extreme volatility in September 2016, which was characterized by large upswings and downswings. In spite of this, the bias on the market is bullish (though in a precarious situation). Price needs to move further upwards by at least, 1000 points, in order to showcase stronger bullishness. For this, bulls would be willing to target the supply zones at 4550.0, 4650.0 and 4750.0 this month.



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Monday, October 3, 2016

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (October 2016)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold is bearish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. In the 4-hour chart, price trended downwards last week, to end September 2016 on a bearish note. Further bearish movement is anticipated this month, which would make price reach the support levels at 1298.00 and 1280.00 and 1270.00. This would make the bias on the daily chart to turn from neutral to bearish. On the other side, a serious rally may enable price to go above the resistance levels at 1330.00, 1350.00 and 1400.00, which may cause a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.  




SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant: Bearish    
Just like Gold, Silver is bearish in the short-term and neutral in the long-term. Price is volatile and there would be further struggle between the bull and the bear before price starts trending seriously, which could most probably be in favor of the bear. The bear may target the demand levels at 18.7000, 18.2000 and 17.5000 in October, which would also result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the daily chart. This expectation would be rational as long as price does not go above the supply levels at 19.9000, 20.5000 and 21.0000. This month, Silver is expected to trend more strongly than it did in September.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Neutral
Bitcoin remained a flat market throughout September 2016, save the bearish breakout that occurred at the beginning of this month, which turned out to be a false breakout. This flat movement is expected to continue this month, and the only thing that could force the market to go out of balance is an unexpected or extremely strong fundament factor. The outcome would be simple, very bad news would result in massive sell-offs, while very good news would result in a serious rally. A strong movement to the south would be contained at the accumulation territory at 509.00 (the low of August 2016); and a movement to the north may not go above the distribution territory at 775.92 (the high of June 2016).

Source: www.tallinex.com  

Super Trading Strategies: Super Traders   
  

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Sunday, October 2, 2016

Daily analysis of major pairs for October 3, 2016

The EUR/USD has become neutral in the short and long terms. The market did nothing significant last week, save testing the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1150. A rise in momentum would force the market to go above that resistance line or below the support line, which may happen this week.

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD has become neutral in the short and long terms. The market did nothing significant last week, save testing the resistance line at 1.1250 and the support line at 1.1150. A rise in momentum would force the market to go above that resistance line or below the support line, which may happen this week.



USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument is bearish in the short-term, but bullish in the long-term. Further sideways movement is anticipated this week, which would culminate in the market moving seriously upwards or downwards in the week. A sharp fall of EUR/USD would result in a rally in the USD/CHF.

GBP/USD: In the 4-hour and daily charts, the outlook is bearish. The Cable is weak and in spite of the fact that price was caught in an equilibrium phase last week, price may breakout out lower, testing the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800 eventually. The accumulation territory at 1.2950 has been tested and it would need to be tested again before price goes further lower. That accumulation territory is adamant; but since the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this month of October 2016 (except in a few instances when some pairs would showcase some forms of bullishness), further bearish movement is possible on the Cable.

USD/JPY: This pair is bearish in the long-term and bearish in the short-term. Price moved between the supply level at 102.00 and the demand level at 100.00. There is a need for price to go above the supply level or the demand level so that there could be a directional bias. That is exactly what is anticipated this week.

EUR/JPY: The situation around this cross pair is similar to that of the USD/JPY. The outlook is bearish in the daily chart, but neutral in the 4-hour chart. This week, a movement to the downside would result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, while a movement to the upside would threaten it. Since the outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for this month, the EUR/JPY has a high probability of going further south.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


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Saturday, October 1, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 3 - 7, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
                                          
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral  
This pair did not do anything significantly last week, save moving briefly above the resistance line at 1.1250 and testing the support line at 1.1150. The bias has become neutral in the short and long terms, and this is supposed to continue until price goes out balance, which should happen before the end of the week or next. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for the month of October (except in a few cases), therefore, EURUSD could be seen going lower in the month.     



USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument is bearish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. Bulls made visible effort to push the instrument upwards but bears did not allow this to happen. Although the outlook is bearish in the short-term, price did nothing more than testing the resistance level at 0.9750 and support level at 0.9650. There should be a rise in momentum this week, and USDCHF would rally only when EURUSD falls sharply.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD is bearish in the long and short terms. Price simply moved sideways last week, although Bearish Confirmation Patterns are still visible in the 4-hour and daily charts. Further bearish movement is anticipated this week, which should drive price towards the accumulation territories at 1.2900, 1.2850 and 1.2800. Rallies in this market would invariably turn out to be traps for bulls; and of course, good short-selling opportunities. The accumulation territory at 1.2950 is currently doing a good job preventing further downside move: though it could give way very soon. In the month of October, the outlook on GBP pairs is strongly bearish, and large downside movements would be witnessed, except in a few cases.
 
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
USDJPY is neutral in the short-term. In fact, the overall condition on the market has been a kind of consolidation throughout September 2016. Further sideways movement would result in a neutral bias in the long-term as well, but there is a  high possibility that price may start trending seriously before the end of this week, which could result in a bearish or bullish signal forming in the 4-hour chart.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral  
The condition on EURJPY is quite similar to the condition surrounding USDJPY. Price consolidated between the demand zone at 112.50 and the supply zone at 114.00, throughout last week. This week, a rise in momentum is expected which would take price above the aforementioned supply zone, or below the demand zone, resulting in a bearish or bullish bearish in the short-term.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I am now doing things I have a passion for and am full time trading.” – Stefan Carling


  

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