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Thursday, April 6, 2017

Technical Forecasts for CFDs (April 2017)


AUS200
Dominant bias: Bullish
The market consolidated from March 3 to 27, and then moved upwards protractedly till the end of March. The bullishness in the market is still being preserved, though things are choppy and volatile at the present. In April, it is expected that price would continue going upward, and gradually. The resistance lines at 5900.00 and 5950.00 are the immediate targets for bulls. The ultimate target is the resistance line at 6000.00. As price journeys upwards, there would be occasional pullbacks along the way – and some can even be large.




SPX500
Dominant bias: Bullish
SPX500 underwent some bearish correction throughout March 2017, but that was not significant enough to pose any threat to the dominant bullish bias, let alone invalidating it. Right now, the bearish correction is still in place, and it might continue this month (until something fundamental forces price to change its course). A movement below the support level at 2300.0 would threaten the bullish bias; while a movement below the support level at 2200.0 would result in a clean bearish outlook on the market. Unless these support levels are broken, any bearish corrections would be viewed as transient.   

US30
Dominant bias: Bullish
As usual, the movement on SPX500 is essentially similar to the movement on US30, since the conditions surrounding both markets are the same. US30 consolidated throughout last month, as bears subtly pushed price gradually south. The downwards correction is still in place, and it might end becoming an opportunity to go long at better prices. The bullish bias would continue to hold as long as price does not go below the accumulation territory at 20000; though the accumulation territories at 20500 and 20300 could be tested temporarily.  

GER30
Dominant bias: Bullish
This market was able to continue its bullish movement last week. The bullish movement started in 2016, and there is still much room for further bullish movement. Last month, price reached a low of 11847.3 and a high of 12342.9. A movement below the low of last month would result in a bearish signal; while a movement above the high of last month would result in stronger Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Given the current price action, a movement to the upside is the most likely. Eyes are on the supply levels at 12300.0 and 12500.00.  

FRA40
Dominant bias: Bullish
FRA40 was able to avoid a major pullback in March, as it reached an equilibrium phase. Price broke to the upside on March 27, rallying till the end of the month. There is yet to be a directional movement so far in this month, but price is playing itself out in the context of an uptrend. It is expected that price would go out of balance again, and there is a probability that the breakout would be in favor of the existing bullish bias. While there also would be some corrections in the market, the supply zones at 5150.0, 5200.0 and 5250.0 could be reached before the end of this month.  


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Wednesday, April 5, 2017

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Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Monthly Technical Reviews for Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (April 2017)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish  
Gold is now a bull market, which is supposed to continue for some time. The bullish trend that has started on Gold since the beginning of this year came under attack from February 27 to March 14. Price reached a low of 1194.73 in March, and then moved upwards by roughly 6500, to help reinforce the existing bullish trend.  April has been started on a bullish note and price may continue going upward and upwards, reaching the resistance levels at 1270.00, 1290.00 and 1300.00. Price is about to break the high of March, which is 1260.83.




SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Just like Gold, Silver has been in a bullish trend since January 2017, and the bullish trend is supposed to continue going upwards and upwards. Within March 2 – March 14, the market came under heavy selling pressure, which almost brought the bullish trend to an end. However, price started going upwards on March 15, and price has gone upwards significantly since then, establishing bulls’ supremacy once again. Price is now close to the high of March, which is 18.462. After breaking the high to the upside, price would then go towards the supply levels at 18.5000, 19.0000 and 19.5000.

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
Bitcoin, which has been trending upwards for several months, was mostly bearish in March. Price was highly volatile and choppy that month, as it went steadily southwards. Nonetheless, the southward movement was not strong enough to completely override the extant bullishness in the market. Last week, price began making some effort to go upwards. The effort to go upwards is still in place and it is expected to continue as price goes towards the distribution territories at 1150.00, 1180.00 and 1200.00 within the next few weeks. The distribution territory may even be exceeded.





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Monday, April 3, 2017

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 3, 2017

 The EUR/JPY consolidated from March 22 to March 31, in the context of a downtrend. Price broke southwards on March 31, closing below the supply level at 119.00 that day. The expectation of any meaningful bullish movement is now invalid, as the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month April; plus the EUR/JPY would be going further and further south as EUR shows more weakness. 

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD tested the resistance line at 1.0900 last week, and then nosedived to almost test the support line at 1.0650. This has now resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and price could move further and further southwards, testing the support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550. The outlook on EUR pairs is bearish for April, and dips would be witnessed in most cases.



USD/CHF: This pair went upwards last week, after testing the support level at 0.9850. From that support level, price went upwards by 180 pips, closing above the support level at 1.0000, which is a significant psychological level. The next targets for this week are located at the resistance levels of 1.0050 and 1.0100, which would render the recent bearish outlook on the market invalid. The movement on the USD/CHF would largely be determined by whatever happens to the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD: In spite of what happened here last week, the Cable remains bullish. Price went slightly upwards in the beginning last week and then fell towards the accumulation territory at 1.2400 and then rose towards the distribution territory at 1.2550. Price would rise further upwards, testing the distribution territory at 1.2600 (which was also tested last week). GBP pairs would trend upwards and downwards strongly this month; though most movement would be downwards.

USD/JPY: This currency trading went upwards by 170 pips last week – in a bullish trend that was not as strong as it was expected. Price could go further upwards, but that would not be strong, because the hope of any significant rally on the USD/JPY is gone. In fact, the outlook on the market (as well as other JPY pairs), is bearish. Long-term long trades are not currently recommended.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY consolidated from March 22 to March 31, in the context of a downtrend. Price broke southwards on March 31, closing below the supply level at 119.00 that day. The expectation of any meaningful bullish movement is now invalid, as the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month April; plus the EUR/JPY would be going further and further south as EUR shows more weakness. 

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


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Saturday, April 1, 2017

Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 3 - 7, 2017)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:


EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair went upwards early last week, tested the resistance line at 1.0900 and then nosedived by almost 250 pips. Price is now very close to the support line at 1.0650, which would be breached to the downside as price goes towards another support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550. The outlook on EURUSD, as well as other EUR pairs, is mostly bearish for this week and for this month; though there would be some visible rally attempts in the market.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF went upwards last week. Price first moved briefly below the support level at 0.9850 and then rose upwards for the rest of the week, closing above the support level at 1.0000. A movement above the resistance level at 1.0050 would pose a threat to the recent bearish bias; while a movement above the resistance level at 1.0100 would result in a bullish bias. This week and this month, the movements on USDCHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD.




GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish  
GBPUSD first moved upwards last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.2600 and then went south, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.2400. Price made several futile attempts to breach that accumulation territory, and later rose up towards the distribution 1.2550. The distribution territories at 1.2600 and 1.2650 could be tested this week, as the market goes further upwards. There would be very strong bearish and bullish movements on GBPUSD this month (which is true of other GBP pairs).
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDJPY went upwards throughout last week, but that was not significant enough to override the current bearish bias. Price reached the supply level at 112.00 and later closed below the supply level at 111.50. There was an expectation of a very strong bullish movement last week: The market did move upwards but it was only a movement of roughly 170 pips. Price may move further upwards, but that movement would not be strong. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for April 2017.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
The market consolidated for most of last week, in the context of a downtrend. The consolidation started on March 22 and ended on March 31, when price broke southwards, closing below the supply zone at 119.00. There are immediate targets at the demand zones of 118.50 and 118.00, but the targets may be exceeded. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month of April, and as EUR becomes weaker in itself, the market would continue to journey southwards.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“A trading strategy is defined by a set of rules. It is following these rules that give the system it’s ‘edge’ over a period of time. This edge produces a result that is better than random, and most importantly produces a profit.” - Jasper Lawler




  


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