Premium Signals on the AUD Pairs (April 3 – 30, 2014)

“Given as few as 30 per cent winners, one can earn a fortune in the markets if only one knows how to handle winners and losers.” – Dirk Vandycke

Please let me introduce you to some premium signals that would be coming your way occasionally. The JPY Pairs Pullback signals are good and we’ll continue using them; plus the premium signals on other pairs and crosses would come your way occasionally. Historically, these premium signals are well above 70% accuracy, so with an RRR of 1:2 we should be happy. The 70% hit rate means that we’d win 7 years out of 10. The premium signals are used with the portfolio on which the JPY Pairs Pullback signals are traded.

Let’s take one example. Before the end of March 2014, it was expected that the JPY itself would become weak exponentially from March 21 to April 10: this is the reason behind the bullish outlook on all the JPY pairs. This shows that a serious strength or weakness in one currency would have proportional impact on every pair/cross that has the currency either as a base currency or a counter currency.

When the EUR becomes very weak, the EURUSD, the EURGBP, the EURCHF, the EURJPY, the EURAUD, the EURNZD and the EURCAD would be weak. A significant stamina in the NZD would push the NZDUSD upwards, but it would push the GBPNZD downwards. Can you now get the logic? The markets that are particularly difficult require approaches that are particularly creative, and with that we would be able to handle even volatile markets. Negativity and positivity have really shaped our success.

A market veteran understands that a positive expectancy strategy makes money only in the long run, yet she/he mayn’t know the outcome of the next orders being placed, and that’s why she/he employs risk control techniques in case something goes wrong. The risk control techniques are always used despite the level of confidence in the veteran.

We don’t win based on the amount of the trades we place, but on level of the sensibility behind the trades. We don’t want to enter the markets at random based on flimsy and shallow reasons. It’s thus more helpful to reduce the amount of trades one takes instead of opening too many trades that mayn’t improve one’s results over the time.

The piece is ended with the quote below:

“You must trade with your best when you are in the markets; nothing less will provide you with consistent winning results (where winning is defined as planning your trades, trading your plan and following all of your rules religiously).” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Now let’s go to the signals:

Instrument: AUDCAD

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.01675

Stop loss: 1.00669

Take profit: 1.03668

Instrument: AUDJPY

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 95.830

Stop loss: 94.814

Take profit: 97.819

Instrument: AUDUSD

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 0.92233

Stop loss: 0.91222

Take profit: 0.94222

Instrument: AUDNZD

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.07955

Stop loss: 1.06928

Take profit: 1.09928

Instrument: EURAUD

Order: Sell

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.49275

Stop loss: 1.50290

Take profit: 1.47290

Instrument: GBPAUD

Order: Sell

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 1.80508

Stop loss: 1.81532

Take profit: 1.78532

Instrument: AUDCHF

Order: Buy

Entry date: April 3, 2014

Entry price: 0.81770

Stop loss: 0.80750

Take profit: 0.81787

NB: 1% per trade is risked. All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired. A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

ADVFN may reach the low at 2.50 before bouncing upwards

ADVFN shares (LSE:AFN) are bearish: they may go further south until they reach the low at 2.50. Should that low (demand level) succeed in checking further bearish move, the shares may bounce upwards from there. Someone says bull markets are fun. I say bear markets are also fun, aren’t they? In bear market, short-sellers can earn a fortune.

In the chart, there are EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. As you can see, all the EMAs indicate the current weakness of the market. It is not wise to go long now… until the price becomes even cheaper. Meanwhile, the bears are enjoying the ride.

Conclusion: ADVFN shares have been falling since early February 2014, but they may reverse at the aforementioned demand level. Should market players judge the fundamentals of a company as satisfactory, certain bulls may intervene and purchase the shares at a lower price, and this could halt further bearish plunge as the shares gain some stamina.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“So often, traders and investors that simply follow the news and fundamentals think that the current trend can last forever, but we all know that is not true.” - Nicholas Santiago

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

BP Stock Breaks Out to the Upside

BP stock (NYSE:BP) has broken out to the upside and would continue going further north.

We want to buy when the trend is strong and stay aside when it is not strong. When the trend in the market is unclear, one would want to apply some filter so as to avoid bogus indications, which may cause fewer indications but higher accuracy. When the uptrend is clear, we would seek long trades only.

It can be seen that the price is making further northward attempts after it broke out upwards. Trading above the upper Trendline, the price has closed above the accumulation territory at 48.10. The RSI period 14 is also above the level 50, and therefore it is logical to go long.

Conclusion: BP could break the distribution territory at 50.00 to the upside, while going towards another distribution territories at 60.00 and 70.00. This, nevertheless, does not rule out the possibilities of bearish corrections along the way. Any southward corrections along the way may cause emotional reactions among market players which could result in panic smoothing and deeper corrections.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“Not trading in a methodical and tested system, but rather relying on emotion or a must-win attitude to create profits, indicates the person is gambling in the markets and unlikely to succeed over the course of many trades.” - Cory Mitchell

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Minor Changes to the JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method

“We have discovered that in most cases the systems used by the best are relatively

simple, based on a limited number of recurring setups that allow the trader to go with the flow of the market created by the “big players.” - Dr. Dariusz Swierk

I was thinking of postposing the announcement of the minors change to the JPY Pairs Pullbacks trading method until June 2014. However, I’ve decided that those who’re interested in the strategy ought to be advised of the changes as soon as possible. No matter the strategy one uses, there would be losing periods. The way one deals with those periods is what determines the end game. A useful trading method should be OK when used in most market conditions, but it can’t win always in most market conditions.

1.      The filter in the method is relaxed: The purpose of filters is to block some possible bogus signals, but it may also make the trader miss some winning signals as well. While a filter may result in fewer trader (and more accuracy in certain cases), it doesn’t prevent a strategy from undergoing alternative losing streaks.

2.      Putting stop on ourselves: There are times when everything we touch becomes gold, and there are times when everything we touch becomes something else. There are times when we make money and there are times when we lose it. Nevertheless, recovery is easy when the loss is controlled. The stop on our trade helps, but the stop on ourselves helps better. A winning period may last for weeks or a few months; but so is a losing period. During the losing period, stops would continue to get hit, and roll-downs would keep eating into the portfolio. Therefore, we’ll stop trading in a month in which our loss exceeds 7% of all the total equity, and never open the new sets of trade until the next month. This is like putting a stop on ourselves.

The most effective way to deal with losing periods is to stay out of the markets during those periods. We don’t know when that kind of period may start or end, but we can help in capital preservation (apart from other risk control methods) when we put the stop on ourselves temporarily. We also don’t know when a winning period may start or end.

A combination of two positive expectancy systems may help, but one may frustrate the performance of the other during the intermittent winning and losing periods. A combination of one negative expectancy system and one positive expectancy system can’t also improve the statistics so much – the negativity coming from one may affect the positivity coming from the other. A combination of two worse expectancy systems makes the trade looks pitiful indeed!

All experienced traders acknowledge that every good system has a series of losing streaks and winning streaks. While a losing streak may cause some drawdown, an ensuing winning streak would compensate for that.  We’re fortunate to be able to handle our negativity and positivity satisfactorily. When we limit our negativity by a certain amount, it won’t go beyond that amount.  

A bad market condition tends to result in flat performance or roll-downs for a considerable amount of the time. While that kind of condition lasts, the experienced trader would simply wait patiently, apply risk control methods and look forward to a winning streak, which would inevitably come.

We play the markets to harness gains in the long run, not to make correct predictions.

This article is ended with the quote below:

“I know instinctively that worrying about the money, looking at my trading balance is the worst thing I can do. It is important for a trader to trade the markets, not his or her capital balance. I mean you have to have capital to trade, but a focus on account balance and not the markets is a trap.”  - Peter Brandt

Source: www.tallinex.com

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Daily analysis of major pairs for March 31, 2014

Since last week, the Cable has been bullish, and the target for this week is at the distribution territory at 1.6700.   

EUR/USD:  This remains a bear market in spite of its attempt to rally. The rally is simply a good shorting opportunity; for the price would simply go down to test the support line at 1.3700, which could be breached to the downside as the price trends further lower. Only bearish trades are advised on this market.

USD/CHF: The bullish signal on the USD/CHF is intact. Our target at the resistance level at 0.8900 was nearly hit last week. Right now, there is a minor pullback in the market, but the price would still go upward to test that resistance level. Should the resistance level be breached to the upside, the next target would be the resistance level at 0.8950.

GBP/USD:  Since last week, the Cable has been bullish, and the target for this week is at the distribution territory at 1.6700. With continuation of the bullish pressure, the price could even go beyond our target: it could reach another distribution territory at 1.6750. Only long trades are advised for this week.

USD/JPY:  This market has been bullish and the bullish bias may extend from now on till the latter part of April 2014. This fact does not rule out the possibility of some bearish corrections, but the corrections would be short-lived as the market goes further upwards.

EUR/JPY: This cross first moved lower last week, then the market rallied significant, closing at 141.36. This rally is strong enough to make the cross recover the loss it sustained last week. Any movement above the supply zone at 142.00 means the bullish bias is over.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,

Analytical expert

www.instaforex.com    

InstaForex Companies Group

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders