Daily analysis of major pairs for June 2, 2014

There is a temporary pullback on the USD/CHF, which ought not to take the price below the support level at 0.8900, so that the bullish bias can remain valid. The price may go further upwards after the pullback has ended.  

EUR/USD:  The bearish bias on this pair is still present, although there is a shallow rally in the market. The rally in the context of a downtrend is not supposed to take the price above the resistance line at 1.3700 – a point at which it would be clear that the bearish bias is no longer valid and it would be logical to seek short trades.

USD/CHF: There is a temporary pullback on the USD/CHF, which ought not to take the price below the support level at 0.8900, so that the bullish bias can remain valid. The price may go further upwards after the pullback has ended.  On the other hand, a movement below the aforementioned support level would render the bullish outlook invalid.

GBP/USD:  On the Cable, there is now a serious rally in the context of a downtrend. From the accumulation territory at 1.6700, the price rallied and closed above the accumulation territory at 1.6750. Further rally should be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6800 and 1.6850. Otherwise, the long-term bearish bias would be in jeopardy.

USD/JPY: This market is a classical example in which false breakouts are no longer a curiosity. In addition, sustained trending moves are rather rare.  It would be OK to stay away from the market unless there is a protracted directional move.

EUR/JPY:  This market, which bounced upwards after testing the demand zone at 138.00, would have the upward bounce contained at the supply levels at 139.00 and 139.50. Further southward movement is expected from here.

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 2 - 6, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

This market has been moving downwards in a slow and tardy manner. Since early May 2014, the downward move that begun has taken the market down by over 380 pips. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is rational to expect that the downward move could continue, although the possibility of a transitory rally cannot be ruled out on the way. The support line at 1.3500 is our target for the next week.

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish  

This currency trading instrument has been caught in a slow and tardy mode also. After the ‘buy’ signal was generated earlier in the month of May 2014, the price has moved upwards by over 270 pips. Now, the possibility of the price moving higher cannot be ruled out, for the northward bias has been established. There could, nevertheless, be some pullbacks in the market along the way, but they ought not to take the price below the support levels at 0.8950 and 0.8900. Any movement below the support levels (especially the latter one) would mean the end of the northward bias. In the meantime, the price may trudge towards our target at the resistance level of 0.9000. It may even break it to the upside and move towards another resistance level at 0.9050.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish  

The Cable gave a spurious ‘buy’ signal last week. Because the price was unable to move higher and break the accumulation territory at 1.6900 to the upside, the Cable skydived and tested the accumulation territory at 1.6700. The ‘sell’ signal in the market has been confirmed: the price could continue trading lower, with the probability of reaching another accumulation territory at 1.6650.

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

This is a difficult market – a market in which false breakouts are no longer a curiosity. In addition, sustained trending moves are rather rare. Unless one is scalping or speculating on intraday basis, one may think of getting out of the market until a determined movement occurs. When it does occur, it is more probable that the price would go lower.

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bearish

Since early May 2014, the cross has gone down by close to 400 pips. The bearish outlook is still valid and may continue till next week, reaching a target at 137.00. It is rational to sell the cross on rallies.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The key word here is patience. If you're using the correct strategies, you can be sure that [a] bad run will end, it’s only a matter of time.” - Marcus de Maria

Source: www.tallinex.com

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Learn-Generals-Market-Azeez-Mustapha/dp/1908756314

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (June 2014)

Here’s the current outlook on Gold and Silver.

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Dominant Bias: Bearish

Gold was in an equilibrium phase for most of the month of May 2014, but price has now broken out in the direction of the bears. From a weekly high of 1301.28, the price has dived, reaching a low of 1255.77. This shows that the upwards move that occurred on May 26, 2014, was a classical example of a false breakout. With a Bearish Conformation Pattern in the market, the price is supposed to continue to move downwards, although there is a high possibility of a rally which is expected to be transitory in nature. The resistance level at 1277.00 ought to serve as a challenge to the expected rally, while the price may go further south and reach the support level at 1200.00 in June 2014. There is even a possibility that the support level might be breached to the downside.  

SILVER (XAGUSD)

Dominant Bias: Bearish

This is also a bear market – with an established bearish outlook on it. Although the extent of the southward journey is not as strong as that of Gold, it is expected that the price would go further south. The present price action was preceded by high volatility in the market (which lasted for more than two weeks).  In the month of June, the price could continue going further south, reaching the demand levels at 18.0000 and 17.5000 respectively.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Wal-Mart Stock Dives on Panic Selling

From February 2014 to the end of May 2014, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) was in a bullish bias. From the beginning of this month until now, the bias has become significantly bearish. This comes as a result of some panic selling, which has made the stock skydive.

Yes, the bears are pushing the price southwards and this may continue longer than is thought. The ADX period 14 has its line above the level 30, which shows a strong bias. The DM- is vividly above the DM+, which means the sellers have an upper hand. The MACD (default parameters) has both its histogram and signal lines below the zero line. This is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and therefore long trades are no longer sensible. Some biases are novel and some have been confirmed. This bias is relatively novel, and as well as confirmed.

It pays to trade only what you see, according to your trading methodology, and resist the feeling that you can predict tomorrow. This is a type of market in which the bear makes money – though a novice may only feel panicky. With the right guidance, you can learn the proper approach in this type of market. Some mentors out there can help. Truly, an instructor that could do everything to help you be a profitable trader is quite worth the effort.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“You have to accept that quality comes before quantity especially on the stock exchange – and many trades does not equal success.” – Dirk Stiller

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (June 2014)

Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP) is in a long-term bearish trend, though the trend last year was bullish. This reveals that it is only a matter of time before gains are given up – whether it takes months of years.

These shares are a good instance of choppy instrument. This is a kind of price action that favors those who look for objective demand and supply zones.  Right now, the price seems to have found a bottom at the support level of 80.00, which has posed a serious threat to the bearish trend.

In the chart, a price close above the EMA 21 would signify a possible uptrend (especially when the Williams’ % Range goes into the overbought region). Anything apart from this would mean the continuation of the extant bias.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“So you see, it's never too late to get started building your own fortune. Many people will sadly pass away with fortunes only in their mind, never to be shared with the rest of us. Whether their barriers were financial, emotional, or just a form of laziness, most people will not fulfill their true potential.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha