Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (October 2014)

Gulf Keystone stock (LSE:GKP) is still a bear market. The bearish outlook has been strengthened and buyers have often been deceived by false rallies which proved to be bogus signals. The futile bullish attempts have failed to make any significant impact on the market, for the bearish sentiment has overwhelmed the bulls. You cannot make a mark on a river by taking a bucket of water from it. You cannot make an impression on a lake by striking it with a sword.

It is indicators that make it easier for us to see a confirmation of a bias. In the chart, the ADX period 14 is around the level 30, showing a considerable strength in the market. The DM- is above the DM+, meaning that the sellers have upper hands. Also, the MACD (default parameters) has both its histogram and signal lines below the zero line. This fact depicts a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart; and the only sensible thing to do is to go short.

At times, the market moves slowly and steadily – the periods when the market is flat and trend followers are subjected to whipsaws. At times, the market moves in a determined mode. The determined mode on Gulf Keystone is bearish and the price would soon test the support level at 60.00.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

"If you watch the market all day long you get so much information that you lose your common sense." -- Old Trader

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Travelers Companies: Shares to rally for the rest of 2014

Traveler’s Companies shares (NYSE:TRV) are expected to rally again and become strong for the rest of the year 2014. This has been a strong market for most of this year, plus deep corrections have been followed by nice rallies.

For this analysis, the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 are used. The price is currently around the EMA 21 and when it goes above it, that would be the period the buyer would want to take action. The Williams’ % Range period 20 is currently in the oversold territory, and when it leaves the territory, the bullish signal of the upwards sloping EMA 21 would be confirmed.

The transitory pullback here is not a ‘sell’ signal. Rather, it is a ‘buy’ opportunity. Irrational speculators may quickly sell their shares because of a transitory pullback. It is advisable to follow the line of the least resistance, but this is best done when losers have been forced to accept their negativity. This would shield you from being forced to cover your positions as well. When irrational traders are forced out of the markets – nursing their wounds – some professionals may also be forced out with them.

Traveler’s Companies market price may reach the distribution territory at 100.00 before the end of this year.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Cynics aren't ready for the unexpected. They view setbacks as evidence that the world is corrupt. They secretly believe that it's impossible to make money in the markets and they are looking for evidence to throw in the towel.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Trading Signals on the AUD Pairs (September 29 - October 23, 2014)

Instrument: AUDJPY

Order: Buy

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 95.417

Stop loss: 94.406

Take profit: 97.407

Instrument: AUDUSD

Order: Buy

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 0.87171

Stop loss: 0.86163

Take profit: 0.89162

Instrument: EURAUD

Order: Sell

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 1.45547

Stop loss: 1.46559

Take profit: 1.43561

Instrument: AUDCAD

Order: Buy

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 0.97262

Stop loss: 0.99249

Take profit: 0.97254

Instrument: AUDCHF

Order: Buy

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 0.82937

Stop loss: 0.81918

Take profit: 0.84918

Instrument: GBPAUD

Order: Sell

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 1.86314

Stop loss: 1.87339

Take profit: 1.84339

Instrument: AUDNZD

Order: Buy

Entry date: September 29, 2014

Entry price: 1.12271

Stop loss: 1.11261

Take profit: 1.14261

NB: 1% per trade is risked. All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired. A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Source: www.tallinex.com

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 29, 2014

After some hesitation, the USD/CHF was able to go upwards, breaking the support level at 0.9500 to the upside. With further northward movement, the pair may reach the resistance level at 0.9550. That is the first target for the week.

EUR/USD:  This currency trading instrument closed at 1.2683 on Friday, September 26, 2014; on a bearish note. The price is now below the resistance line at 1.2700, making attempt to reach the support line at 1.2650. This trading instrument would continue its weakness as long as the USD is strong. That is the initial target for the week.

USD/CHF: After some hesitation, the USD/CHF was able to go upwards, breaking the support level at 0.9500 to the upside. It may be thought that the pair could experience a large pullback whenever the USD becomes weak suddenly; but the fact is that the market would continue going upwards as long as the EUR/USD is weak. With further northward movement, the pair may reach the resistance level at 0.9550. That is the first target for the week.

GBP/USD:  The perpetual weakness in the GBP, coupled with the perceived strength in the USD, has enabled this market to go bearish. This has led to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and it is no longer sensible to seek long trades at this time. More weakness may enable the price to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6150 this week.

USD/JPY:  This is a bull market – a result of the stamina in the Greenback. The Greenback is, in fact, one of the strongest currencies among the majors right now. The supply level at 109.50 has already been tested, and the price may later break it to the upside, closing above it. On the other hand, the risk of a pullback still exists.

EUR/JPY:  The reality in this market is that it is weak: the bearish bias has been confirmed and there is a possibility that the market may continue to be weak, reaching the demand zone at 138.00.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,

Analytical expert

www.instaforex.com    

InstaForex Companies Group

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Learn-Generals-Market-Azeez-Mustapha/dp/1908756314

Defense is Better than Attack in Trading

“Defensive strategic trading clearly is more successful in the long run than you might think! There will always be people who briefly achieve huge returns using daring maneuvers, but in the long term the strategist with an approach based on sound statistics will be successful…”

When an advancing army anticipates attack, they tend to prepare themselves so that they can fend off the attack successfully. When a state of war seems hopeless, an intelligent and experienced general would tell his army to wait and let the enemy attack first, while they prepare for the attack. Defense is better than attack. In football, when a team is too desperate to score goals at all costs, their defense may be unknowingly put in disarray and this may enable the opposing team to utilize the sudden weakness and score a goal, thereby frustrating the team’s effort.

The same is true of trading, because the most important goal is not to lose our money. When we achieve the goal, there would be times when profits would come normally. We not need to bury our heads in the sand, ignoring reality. We would need to come to grips with the fact that we may not survive the markets permanently until we learn how to deal with the uncertainty of the markets. The way risk is handled clearly differentiates between a market veteran and a novice. A market veteran does not react negatively during a loss; whereas a novice does.  A veteran waits for another trade after some negativity – she/he does not overreact when there is loss.

If we feel that all our trades will be profitable, we might later be surprised that we are not right. The market does not ask for our approval before it turns against us. The fly does not ask for our permission before it perches on us. Negativity happens in all ventures. The ultimate action we can take is to tame the risk and not gamble our funds away – as many traders do.

The quote above is from Rene Wolfram. The quote below is also from him, (Based on his interview in Tradersonline-mag.com, September 2014). The quote below ends this article: 

“Most traders think topics like mental coaching or risk management are boring, but that’s exactly where the problem is: These things are the most important ones in trading. And there’s another problem: Many traders know trading approaches that work but are simply incapable of implementing them on a regular basis.”

Source: www.tallinex.com

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals