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Sunday, April 26, 2020

WHY TRADING IS VERY HARD – Part 2


What Most Retail Traders Do
The sad fact, most people become traders after they have lost their jobs or sources of income and they’re now looking for a way out. When certain people still have other sources of income, they won’t want to do anything with Forex – until they lose those sources of income. That’s when they’ll begin to consider trading as a viable option. As a result of this, they put unnecessary pressure on themselves. Things are easier for traders who also have other means of survival.

The principles that guarantee lasting success in the markets are completely contrary to what many people want to hear or do. This is because we’re not naturally wired to trade normally.

Most retail traders blow their accounts, replenish and fund, blow the accounts again, and then replenish it, and then blow it again. This cycle goes on and on. Whenever they think they have a better trading idea or software or strategy, they fund the account and blow it again.

There are also retail traders who move from one broker to another. Clearly, traders deposit more money than they withdraw.

Like I said in my previous articles, NEVER believe anyone who shows you images/screenshots of winning trades. No matter how sweet-mouthed or “professional” they seem to be. The realities are far different than what they’re showing you, and even rookies can also make occasion profits by luck.

Unless they give you access to a demo account to monitor for 4 months, or register a trading account on MyFxbook.com to give you a link to see it, which shows the statistics and data of the trader’s speculative activities (hit rate, RRR, Sharpe Ratio, expectancy, maximum drawdowns, biggest win, biggest loss, consecutive wins, etc.), never believe them. Because they won’t post a screenshot of losing trades.



A Challenge
If there is anyone here who wants to prove me wrong. That person would need to give us access to an MT4 account that is at least 10 years old, and on which an annual profits have been made for 10 years while placing a minimum of 4 trades per month (with no margin calls, but only occasional withdrawals of profits).

Then I would tender my apology in this group, for saying that long-term success is not possible.

But I bet that no-one; I mean no-one, can show me this. Where are the gurus in the house?

BUT. You can say: PEOPLE ARE MANAGING MONEY FOR OTHERS AND THEY ARE GIVING INVESTORS 20% PER MONTH.

Yes, there are many people doing that, but that is not sustainable. Promising investors a certain amount per month is nonsense. How can you ever do that in what you cannot control? If you could control the market to your favor always, then you can tell investors that you will give them a fixed percentage per month.

The truth is that, most of those funds managers will come up with monthly drawdowns and they would spend a long time trying to recover the losses; whereas investors won’t know. The managers will be using deposits from new clients to pay old clients. And as long as they do this, new clients will keep coming.

This is a Ponzi scheme that is not sustainable.

Fact: Professional traders encounter occasional losing streaks and they would spend weeks or months, trying to recover those losses, with hope of moving ahead later.

If you’re the best trader in the world, you will have times when the market will not be favorable to your strategy. The period may be short or long, and it is recurrent. At times, you’ll find yourself spending weeks or months, trying to recover recent roll-downs. There is no way around this. You have to accept this fact or go do something else.

The only difference is that the best trader will eventually recover those losses, no matter how long it takes, and then move ahead and make more profits. Sooner, they encounter another roll-downs, and they stay on the defensive, as long as it takes them to recover. They ultimately recover and make more profits. The equity dips, grows higher, dips again, and makes another higher high, and so on. This is the reality many people won’t accept, and failure to accept that often results financial disaster.

Is There Any Hope?
Yes there is hope and a way out. All hope is not lost. My premise is that if only 1% or 2% or 5% of all retail traders make money consistently, then you should be one of them.

Yes, there is hope” The Ultimate Secrets to Consistent Profits” would be revealed in the next article.



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To fund and withdraw with Neteller, please visit: www.instantforex.com.ng

Friday, April 24, 2020

Comparing Binary Options to Forex


In Forex (FX), you trade only currencies, but in Binary Options (BO) you can trade commodities, stocks, indices, and of course, Forex. Binary trading is a vehicle that is different from Forex trading.

Trading BO gives you a reward that is less than your initial stake; whereas you can make far more than your initial risk in FX if you let your profit run. You can also lose far more than your initial risk in FX if you don’t use stop and there is a strong trend against you.

If I risk 10 USD in binary, I may not win 10 USD if I’m right…. But I can’t lose more than 10 USD, no matter how strong the movement against me is. That’s a great advantage in BO, because risking 10 USD in FX may lose more than that, even with stops. This is because of slippage and spreads.

If I target 10 USD with an FX trade, I cannot win that 10 USD if I’m correct, unless I factor in the spread. If the spread is 3 pips and I target 10 pips, then I need to set the final target to 13 pips (provided I win 1 USD per pip). If I don’t do this, I win only 7 USD. In this case, the higher the spread, the more the loss and the less the gain, as far as FX is concerned.



You cannot be a long-term winner in BO if you risk too much per trade and the same is true of FX. Exit strategies in FX are both manual and automated; but in BO, they’re automated only. I can leave a trade until my stop or target is hit or I close it for myself, with either profit or loss. I can’t do that in BO, as I need to wait for the expiry period to trigger itself, subject to the mercy of the markets.

If you let your profits run always and cut your losses in FX, 30% accuracy is enough to make your triumphant over the long-term. However, in BO, even 55% accuracy will guarantee eventual financial disaster.

You can lose money trading FX if you have 80% or 90% accuracy, but you don’t use stops. On the other hand, if you have such accuracy in BO, that means you’re already a permanently successful trader.

Based on many years of experience, I can conclude that BO is easier than FX.

NB: The next article would explain why many brokers don’t want to do BO.

Whether you want to acquire our Binary Options Strategy or you want us to manage funds for you, please contact us.



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HSBC Holdings stays weak as bulls stay aloof


HSBC Holdings stock (LSE:HSBA) has stayed weak because buyers seem not to be interested in getting seriously active. Following a largely consolidating movement that occurred between November 2019 and February 2020, there was a sustained downwards movement.

The downward movement appears to be losing steam in this month of April; but that would turn out to be a pause which would be temporary before the next leg of a downward trend is resumed.

ADX period 14 is above the level 30, which signifies a considerable amount of momentum. The DM- is above the DM+, meaning that bears hold sway.

The MACD default parameters, has its signal lines below the zero line, while the histogram is above the zero line. It is expected that the histogram will fall below the zero line soon, therefore enforcing the almost vivid Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

The outlook for HSBA is bearish and further weakness is expected.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Trading realities: Trading realities 
  


Microsoft price remains upbeat amid turbulence


Microsoft shares (NASDAQ:MSFT) has been able to hold out to the bullish signal on it, against the current turbulence the market is facing, from November 2019 to February 2020, price rose upwards sharply, reaching the supply level at 190.00.

Then the market fell to as low as the demand level of 130.00 before rallying again. The rally has been in place since then: price has been able to stay above the EMA 21. Likewise, the Williams’ % Range period 20 has recently fallen from the overbought territory. The fall was not much and the indicator has halted its fall as it prepares to go upwards again.


Once the Williams’ % Range reaches the overbought region, there would be a confirmed bullish bias on the market. MSFT is supposed to go upwards from here, reaching the supply levels at 180.00, 190.00 and eventually 200.00 this year. This target might even be exceeded.


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Trading realities: Trading realities 
  

Buy and sell Perfect Money/Payeer/BTC/AdvCash; get funded quickly: www.ituglobalfx.com.ng

Saturday, April 18, 2020

WHY TRADING IS VERY HARD – Part 1


 People don’t want to hear the truth. But it’s the truth that can bring a solution.  People are more attracted to lies than truths.

When a veteran trader says the truth, people ignore it. But when an impostor tells them what they want to hear, you see lots of responses. How many times have you been blessed by what you want to hear?

There are many rich brokers and many rich IBs (marketers), but there are not many rich traders.
Just like anything in life, they say trading is a zero (0) sum game (your lost funds go to winning traders, and versa).

But the reality is, trading is a minus (-) sum game: Commissions, negative swaps, spreads, uncertainties, efficient markets, small percentage of winners, and high percentage of losers. Trading is clearly expensive.

You think because you can open a brokerage account within minutes, deposit into it and start clicking or tapping, you’re going to be the next billionaire. No Sir or Madam.


Trading is the 2nd most difficult profession in the world: second only to the job of defusing nuclear weapons. Beating the market on an annual basis, and for the long-term, is one of the toughest jobs in the world. Beating the market seems easy in theory; but not in reality.

It’s almost impossible to beat the market on a long-term basis. Yes, anyone can make profits now, and tomorrow or in few weeks or few months or even a few years. However, to make profits on a long-term basis is almost impossible.

That’s why I always shake my head whenever I see charlatans posting a screenshot of a day’s or  a week’s results, trying to impress simpletons.

Longer-term Trading Success Is Elusive
What we’re talking about here is consistency… A situation in which you declare profits on annual basis. It doesn’t matter whether the profits are small or big; what matters is that you declare profits on annual basis. Nonetheless, almost 99% of traders cannot achieve this because of psychological problems.

There are billionaire hedge funds managers who made billions in the past… They may make that for some years but not for every year.

Those who can really make permanent, consistent profits on annual basis for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 years in a row are extremely rare and few. The rest will just achieve short-term success and blow up and then disappear.

Whether you like it or not, there is nobody and there is no instrument that can predict the next move of the market with 100% accuracy always. Gurus and wonderful strategies are ultimately correct less than half of the time.

There are times when predictions and anticipation will go according to plan, and that would bring a false sense of having found the Holy Grail. Eventually, things will go back to even.   

NB: These articles are not meant to discourage you from trading, but to make you realize that the reality is different from what most touts want you to believe. So if you seem to encounter roadblocks, performance ceiling (inability to make profits beyond certain levels) and frustration, it is not because there is curse on you, or there is a witch in your family, or your intelligence is low or you are unlucky or something is wrong with you. It is how the markets are structured to work.


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