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Sunday, September 29, 2013

Daily Trading Forecasts for September 30, 2013


After much consolidation, the markets ended the last week trending according to the dominant biases.



EURUSD: This pair closed at 1.3522, being in a bullish mode. The price trended upwards last week, and it is supposed to do so this week. Although this would not be without serious struggle between buyers and sellers, it is likely that the price would reach the resistance level at 1.3600.  

USDCHF: The USDCHF remains a bear market. The price spent a considerable amount of time in an equilibrium phase, before it broke the support level at 0.9100 to the downside. As it was mentioned in earlier forecasts about this special trading instrument, the ultimate destination for the price is the south area of the support level at 0.9000.

GBPUSD: After much consolidation, the markets ended the last week trending according to the dominant biases. With this in consideration, it is no wonder that the Cable itself was able to rise and trend upwards, challenging the distribution territory at 1.6150 (which was also tested two weeks ago). This distribution territory would eventually be overcome.

USDJPY: The USDJPY has already given a bearish signal – with the demand level of 98.00 in sight. This is an easy prey, and it is expected that that level would eventually be challenged and overcome. Therefore, the price may end up reaching the demand levels of 97.50 and 97.00 respectively.

EURJPY:  The situation on this currency trading instrument requires some tact right now. There is some uncertainty here: the RSI period 14 is below the level 50, while the price threatens to break the EMA 50 to the downside, and close below it. Should this happen and should the price close below the aforementioned EMA, short trades would be preferred.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Weekly Price Forecast on Gulf Keystone (September 25 – 30, 2013)


For the rest of this month, Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP) is expected to continue going in the direction of the bulls, just as it has been doing since the beginning of July 2013.  Prices are ushed by Smart Money. It is even more interesting that, usually, the stock that has trended northwards seriously would continue to be purchased by greedy speculators who are angry at the fact that they have missed the initial serious trend. 


As it can been since on the historical price journey, any bearish pulls have invariably resulted in new leases of bullish strength. The ADX period 14 is around the level 30, showing momentum in the market; plus it remains safe to say that the DM+ is above the DM- (which shows the buyers’ supremacy). The MACD (default parameters) has both its signal lines and histogram above the zero line. This is a bull market and the current retracement in the price is an opportunity to go long cheaper.

Conclusion: This market is supposed to resume its bullish journey and touch the distribution territory at 240 again. At times, the most sensible thing a trader can do is to wait for the best time to open her/his positions. You would often need to choose between the market action and the sensibility of a trading idea.


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders


Soco International: Investors Smile to Their Banks


Soco international (LSE:SIA) has long been a wonderful market – an investors’ dream. Therefore, anyone who has gone long in the market since July 2013 when a long signal is generated in the midst of the continuous turbulence in the market should be smiling to their bank right now. 


Based on the model used here, a long signal has been generated since July 2013. Since the latter part of September till now, the outlook on the price is a clean bullish one. The price is far above the EMA 21 while the Williams’ % Range has gone into the overbought region, depicting the bulls’ strength. Though there could be southward corrections, the price is expected to reach the resistance line at 450.00.

Conclusion: When a long signal was generated in this market around July 2013, bulls would look like fools then. But those who persevered are now enjoying the results of their effort. Speculators would do well to continue their effort until they attain their aims. Most real gurus have persevered with determination – irrespective of the challenges they encounter on the way – and they are now profitable. Going short in a bull market is suicidal. Do not forget that a suicide trading technique may sometimes pay off. It happens like that, for a bad trading style occasionally brings gains. Nonetheless, using a suicide trading technique would ruin your portfolio eventually. Lay down your trading rules and follow them. Laying down rules is common, whereas loyalty to them is rare.


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders




Sunday, September 22, 2013

Daily Trading Forecasts for September 23, 2013


Although currently ranging, the JPY pairs ended being bullish last week. The bullish outlook remains valid for this week.



EURUSD: The EURUSD moved upwards last week by around 200 pips, topping at the resistance line of 1.3550 before retracing downwards a little. The aforementioned resistance line would still be tested again, and would be overcome, especially because the bullish outlook for this week is valid.

USDCHF: This pair trended downwards in the past few trading days. The support level at 0.9100 is now being challenged, and it is highly probable that it would be overcome, as the price trends downwards towards the next support level of 0.9000. Meanwhile, there is a resistance level at 0.9200.

GBPUSD:  The Cable is a strong currency right now: creating new highs and retracing lower a little. At the present, the retracement is in place, but the Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart is still far from being violated. However, the price ought not to trade below the accumulation territory of 1.5900, for the bullish outlook not to be violated.

USDJPY:  Although currently ranging, the JPY pairs ended being bullish last week. The bullish outlook remains valid for this week. Therefore, the outlook for the USDJPY is bullish, unless the price goes below the EMA 56 and close below it. It is likely that the price would reach the great supply level at 100.00 very soon.

EURJPY:  This trading instrument closed at 134.34 on Friday, during a minor southward correction in the price. In the presence of the strong bullish outlook in the market, it is normal that the supply zone at 135.00 would be challenged very soon. There is a demand zone at 134.00.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Friday, September 20, 2013

Nicolas Darvas: His Timeless Trading Strategy


LEARN FROM GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 37

“I knew now that I had to keep rigidly to the system I had carved out for myself.” – Nicolas

Born in 1920, in Hungary, Nicolas Darvas was a popular dancer, self-educated trader and an accomplished author. He was a good economist at the University of Budapest. During the World War II, he didn’t want to stay in Hungary until the country was overrun by either the Nazi military or the Soviet military. He therefore improvised a travelling document in 1943 (at the age of 23) and fled the country. While in Turkey, he was able to avoid dying of hunger because he’d 50 GBP with him. Later he came across his half-sister Julia. Julia then became his dancing team member. His troupe later became renowned globally, with outstanding achievements in Europe and the United States.

During his leisure times, he read many trading and investment books, some of which are:
“ABC of Investing,” by R. C. Effinger, “Consistent Profits In The Stock Market,” by Curtis Dahl, “Profit In The Stock Market,” by H. M. Gartley, “The Battle for Investment Survival,” by Gerald M. Loeb (1935), and so on. When he invested in some over-extended bull markets, the markets continue to go northward and thus were able to give him nice profits. Thus he was able to create the strategy that made him famous. With the strategy, he turned $36,000 into more than $2.25 million in a 36-month period. While travelling with his troupe, he’d check Barron’s magazine, see what the markets were doing, and send cable/telegram messages to his broker in New York, so that new trades could be executed in his behalf. He made use of the latest technology of his days, for there was no internet.

Which strategy did Nicolas use to tackle the uncertainty of the markets? His strategy was based on the popular Box Theory. With this kind of theory, certain price actions were seen as a series of boxes. Whenever the price was in a box, he stayed out of the market. But once the price broke out northward from inside the box, he went long, setting a stop according to his rule. More information about the Box Theory would be found in some other articles. Nicolas himself explains in details how he used that strategy in his book titled: “How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market” (1960). His other books are:  “Wall Street: The Other Las Vegas” (1964), “The Anatomy of Success” (1965), “The Darvas System for Over-The-Counter Profits” (1971) and “You Can Still Make It in the Market” (1977).

He died in 1977, at the age of 57.

Lessons
What lessons can be learned from this famous dancer, author and trader? Here are some of them:

  1. A normal market must be a two-way market (a market in which you can either go long or short). Go long in a bull market and go short in a bear market and do it right. Nicolas Darvas was a permabull, for short-selling didn’t fit his mindset, but he acknowledged that his Box Theory could be used conversely for taking advantage of bear markets. Bear markets proffer fast profit-making opportunities and savvy speculators ought to consider this fact. Don’t buy in bear markets; otherwise, stay out of the markets.

  1. If you’re a successful trader, the psychological principles that enable you to trade successfully can also be used to achieve your goals in other business. There are market wizards who’re also successful academicians, businessmen, programmers, sportsmen, etc. There are people like James Simons and William O'Neil out there. Nicolas believed that the formula for success remains essentially the same.

  1. Nicolas invested in shares of companies that had good growth potential, like electronics and missile industries in his days. He called himself a techno-fundamental trader, which means that a combination of technical and fundamental analysis is good.

  1. You see, strategies that work will continue to work irrespective of how old they’re. Nicolas Box method still works perfectly in today’s markets. Whenever he saw a signal, he quickly sent orders for trades to be opened. Like many traders today, he didn’t hesitate, for he knew that the trend is the trader’s buddy. Many traders today would be reluctant to open trades because they know too much (often conflicting ideas). The problem most of us face right now is the availability of too much knowledge. Nicolas bought mainly because the he saw bullish signals on his chart, and in reality, whatever worked effectively in the past may also be effective in the future. The Box Theory was created tens of years ago, yet it still works. This is because the Theory showcases the speculators’ mindset and weaknesses. Yes, old legendary trading strategies can still work if they’re stuck to faithfully.

  1. There are exit and exit plans in every trading system. If studied very well, it’d be seen that the Box method has entry and exit plans. The best exit method in any system is the stop loss. Nicolas decided to let his stop loss decide when to exit in a bull market.

  1. Analysis is good, but it doesn’t predict the market. So there’s a big difference between analysis and market prediction. This must be borne in mind. Like technical analysis, all what fundamental analysis can let you know are the facts of yesterday and today, not what must happen tomorrow.

  1. Don’t be overconfident in the market, no matter how good your trading system is or how favorably the markets have treated you. Overconfidence is definitely not a good thing. Nicolas said that’s the most harmful mindset that can be developed by any trader.

Conclusion: Your trading career would bring out the best and the worst in you; therefore you’d do well to come to terms with your strong and weak points before you stake your neck. This would enable you to do things that could bring out the best in you and avoid things that could bring the worst in you. With this method, you’ll be able to render your weak points ineffectual, so that they don’t have any adverse effects on your trading.

This piece is ended with another quote from Nicolas:

“I was successful in taking larger profits than losses in proportion to the amounts invested.”

 

Azeez Mustapha 

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders



Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Naibu Global Stock May Drop Like a Stone


Naibu Global stock (LSE:NBU) may soon trend downwards significantly, especially if the distribution territory at 70.00 acts as a barrier to the current bullish attempt, which is expected to be short-term in nature. 


Looking at the chart, it can be seen that 4 EMAs are used – EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is indicated at the top left corner of the chart. The EMA 200 shows a long-term downtrend, coupled with the fact that it acted as a barrier to the bullish attempt which took place this month. The price has nosedived and other EMAs have supported a new lease of bearish run. The price may later drop like a stone, though pullbacks are normally expected.

Conclusion: Should Naibu Global stock drop further, short sellers would reap nice gains. It behooves us to do what makes us comfortable while trading. When using a positive expectancy strategy, things should favor us ultimately. Otherwise, something is wrong with our trading mindset. Normally, speculators thrive most where the markets are free from unfair manipulation and the trend is great. Unfair market interventions give advantages to some privileged few – really unfair.

This quote ends this forecast:

“You need to keep things simple. Price is always the most important thing. Nothing has a
higher priority for me.” - Ralph Acampora


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders




Goldstone Resources Price Would Soon Go Sky-high


On Goldstone Resources market (LSE:GRL) the southward breakout that occurred within the last two months proved to be a false one. The price then moved back inside the Trendlines, later breaking the upper Trendline to the upside, and trading further upwards in a turbulent manner. 



What happen in other businesses are not what happen in the trading world. The outlook on the market is bearish (though things are tumultuous). The price keeps trading atop the upper Trendline while the demand levels at 1.80 and 1.60 are supposed to do a good job in checking any southwards threats from the bears. The RSI period 14 is above the level 60, going towards the level 70. The outlook here is indeed bullish.

Conclusion: Goldstone Resources may go sky-high irrespective of what analysts say. Fundamental figures tend to favor the dominant bias, whether the figures themselves are positive or negative. Even a mean reversion effect caused by some fundamentals are invariably transient in nature. What some economic news reporters deem too insignificant to mention may have effect on the markets. Nowadays, decisions made by central banks even have more impact on the markets than decisions made by politicians.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“….Studying prices intensively enabled me to develop a better feel for the market.” – Ralph Acampora



Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders



Sunday, September 15, 2013

Daily Trading Forecasts for September 16, 2013



The Cable was bullish throughout last week; moving significantly upwards without much retracement. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is thus an easy target.




EURUSD: This pair is still caught in a bullish bias in spite of the turbulent consolidation that is presently going on. It is very much likely that when the momentum is gathered, things would be favorable to buyers. The near-term target is at the resistance line of 1.3350.

USDCHF: In a converse manner, the USDCHF is in a downtrend irrespective of the tumultuous equilibrium zone on it right now. Based on the price action cum the indicators positions, the possibility holds that the market would continue trending downwards when the trend becomes significant again.

GBPUSD:  The Cable was bullish throughout last week; moving significantly upwards without much retracement. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is thus an easy target. However, it may be possible that the price pull back in a shallow manner, not going below the accumulation territory of 1.5800.

USDJPY: The weakness in the Greenback is not helping matters here. The scenario on the pair is supposed to be bullish, but there is currently a ‘sell’ signal on the chart. This is the reality in the market, and the great psychological supply level at 100.00 is acting as a barrier to the bulls’ interest.

EURJPY:  This currency instrument has been able to retain its northward outlook despite all. However, it is advisable not to take a position until the signal becomes clearer. The RSI period 14 may cross back above the level 50 to support a northward outlook; or the price may cross the EMA 56 to the downside to jeopardize the northward outlook.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Friday, September 13, 2013

William O'Neil: Outperforming the Markets


William O'Neil: Outperforming the Markets

LEARN FROM GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 36

“If you want to improve your trading you have to control yourself.” – Norman Welz

William J. O'Neil was delivered as a bouncing baby boy in March 25, 1933, in Oklahoma City. He grew up in Texas. In Dallas, Texas, he attended Woodrow Wilson High School. After he got his first degree in business from Southern Methodist University, he joined the USAF (the United States Air Force). He later joined a brokerage firm and began to develop some trading methods. William has been influenced by many bright trading minds, including Gerald Loeb and Nicolas Darvas. In 1960, he attended Harvard Business School in order to study Management Development.

At the age of 30, he acquired a seat on the New York Stock Exchange (being the youngest person to do so at that time). In 1963, he started William O'Neil + Co. Incorporated. The company made some innovative contributions to the trading world – something that’s still relevant to more than 10,000 companies. He created Daily Graphs in 1972 and founded O'Neil Data Systems, Inc. in 1973. In 1984, he started Investor's Daily, which has proven to be a formidable rival to The Wall Street Journal. He launched MarketSmith, an online shares research tool, in 2010.  He wrote a number of books, some of which are “How To Make Money In Stocks (1988),” “24 Essential Lessons For Investment Success (1999),” and “The Successful Investor (2003).’’ He’s won certain awards in various fields. His official website is: Williamoneil.com.

Lessons
Here are some simple but weighty lessons that can be learned from William O'Neil:

  1. William invented the renowned CAN SLIM strategy; which has enabled him to become the best-performing trader in his company. This strategy incorporates fundamental and chart-based trading approaches, with the selection of the stocks that are the most promising. If you’re interested in CANSLIM and how it helps in trading, you’d need to study it. If you’ve a great strategy already, congrats! You’ll just need to stick to it.

  1. The markets have a knack for going against the expectation of the public, and because of this, what most analysts are saying can’t be relied on. Most analysts tend to mislead the public by trying to drive home their hypotheses, which aren’t always accurate. Expert and personal forecasts can’t enable you to outperform the markets constantly. What’ll eventually help you are the markets and the realities on them. 

  1. It’s common for some people to call long trades because they think a market is oversold, but in most cases the market would trend further southward. The same is true of a bull market: when people think it’s overbought and should experience a protracted pullback, then it would rally further. This means that one should trade what one sees, and doesn’t need to trade against the trend.

  1. It’s appalling that some traders tend to talk of how much they can make in a day or in a month (in terms of pips, points or base currency). They tend to ignore the fact that the only thing they can control is how much they lose. Just focus on losing as little as possible: that’s the secret to your outperforming the markets.

Conclusion: Blessed is he/she who considers risk and takes appropriate measures to curtail it. People risk too much because of overconfidence, which has brought many potential gurus’ dreams to an abrupt end. Then, it pays to be realistic when trading, so that one remains emotionless while speculating. Between 40% - 50% of one’s trades can end up in the negative territory, based on the price conditions. You’d do well to merely close your negative positions and look forward to other opportunities in the markets. Trading would proffer you with many great signals, and as such, your new trades may recover the losses you’ve sustained. You may refuse to be a failure in spite of the disappointment that come occasionally.

This piece is ended with a quote from William:

"The whole secret to winning and losing in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you're not right."


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders




Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Look! What’s Happening on Anglo Asian?


 What is happening on Anglo Asian Mining stock (LSE:AAZ)? The market has long been showing deadly struggle between bulls and bears; plus the bulls are currently gaining upper hands. Wouldn’t it look better if the bears accept reality and stop struggling? A blind man who is keeping malice with the housekeeper would suffer by wandering behind the walls, without assistance.


Here, the price has broken the EMA 21 upwards and would inevitable close above it, while possibly going further north. The Williams’ % Range period 20, which oscillates according to the ups and downs on the chart, is currently supporting the bulls’ victory. There is a good support level at 30.00.

Conclusion: The price on Anglo Asian would end up trending upwards. In spite of the turbulent conditions since the middle of this year, this market has been showing a tendency to keep up going north. Although large pullbacks can be expected sometimes, the price would go further upwards. With this in mind, one can sail the ocean of this market successfully. Rookies tend to be carried away by unrealistic promises, but you can become a better trader without having to make too many errors.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“Sometimes your worst experiences in life turn out to be the best in the end.” – Ralph Acampora


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons:  http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders



An Opportunity to Buy Red Rock Resources at a Better Price


The condition on Red Rock Resources (LSE:RRR) is currently perfect for long trades. After a prolonged bear market which ended at the end of July 2013, the price has been trending upwards till now. 

Chart readings that are focused on smaller timeframes would subject one to too much confusing noise, and that is why it is better to focus on a big timeframe in order to see the Big Picture. There has been a clear uptrend in the market since the beginning of August 2013.  On the chart, the ADX period 14 is almost above the level 60, signifying a strong uptrend, while the DM+ is also clearly above the DM-, signifying the bulls’ supremacy. The MACD histogram and signal lines are far above the zero line. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and therefore the current pullback in the price is a great opportunity to go long in the market. Certain speculators do not bother about uncertainty. Pullbacks and retracements in the context of bullish trends often result in the ability to go long at better prices.

This forecast is ended with this piece:

“Great traders care about making money more than any other thing. Proving they are right, showing off, or predicting the future is not as important as hearing the register ring.” – Steve Burns


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders



Monday, September 9, 2013

Daily Trading Forecasts for September 10, 2013


The JPY pairs started this week with upwards gaps, and since then, they have been making bullish attempts. 

EURUSD: This pair has rejected the recent bearish threat on it. The price moved upwards on Monday, breaching the resistance line at 1.3250 to the upside and trading above it. The Williams’ % Range has supported a bullish signal, but the EMAs are yet to do that, and therefore, it would be nice to wait for a confirmation of the new bias before opening orders.

USDCHF: The USDCHF suddenly experienced some weakness which dragged its price towards the support level of 0.9300. Should the support level be breached to the downside, and move towards the level at 0.925o, the bearish outlook would be over. Meanwhile, it would be better to wait for the EMAs to support what the Williams’ % Range is doing. Then, one could sensibly take a position.

GBPUSD:  The Cable – which has been maintaining its stamina when its EURUSD counterpart was weak – would now find it very much easier to trend northward. When the Greenback was strong, the pair did not go down; so when the Greenback is now weak, the pair would easily trend upwards. The initial target remains at 1.5700.

USDJPY: The JPY pairs started this week with upwards gaps, and since then, they have been making bullish attempts. Out of all the available JPYs, it was only the USDJPY that traded downwards following the gaps-up, but it is currently trying to bounce upwards.

EURJPY:  In spite of the recent momentous volatility on this market, it was able to check any bearish attempts on it. The price moved upwards by 115 pips on Monday, resulting in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern which portends a bullish bias.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders


Sunday, September 8, 2013

Daily Trading Forecasts for September 9, 2013


The fundamentals that were released on Friday, September 6, 2013 caused some corrections in the markets, but the dominant biases are still valid.


EURUSD: The dominant bias on this pair is bearish, and the bullish attempt that was brought about on Friday could encounter an immediate check at the resistance line of 1.3200. This week, it is more likely that support line of 1.3100 would end up being tested; even possibly breached to the downside.

USDCHF: The USDCHF went upwards last week. Getting to the resistance level of 0.9450 (which was tested a few times), it went downwards by 100 pips. Interestingly, the downward move was checked at the support level of 0.9350, from which the price bounced upwards. The support level is an immediate check to the current bearish attempt.

GBPUSD:  This recalcitrant currency instrument has been turbulent, though going upwards steadily. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart affirms the possibility of the price going upwards.  It is reasonable to continue to hold on to the possibility of the price reaching the distribution territory of 1.5700.

USDJPY: The fundamentals that were released on Friday, September 6, 2013 caused some corrections in this market, but the dominant bias is still valid. On the USDJPY, the price peaked at the demand level of 100.00 and went down spiraling, touching the demand level at 98.55. There could be a jeopardy to the bullish interest should the price go below that demand level.

EURJPY:  From the supply zone of 132.00, the cross has nosedived by almost 200 pips. This price action is a serious threat to the bullish outlook, which would be rendered invalid should the price go further south. 


Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders



Saturday, September 7, 2013

Do Technical Indicators Still Work?


“Trading rarely takes as much time as you think it will when you get started. Once you've nailed the concepts, the actual time it takes to trade is actually measured in minutes, rather than hours.” - Louise Bedford

This topic is now a bone of contention among traders. Some say that indicators only confirm what the price is doing and nothing more. Some say that lagging indicators (indicators that give signals after the market bias has been confirmed) can make one miss out on many trading opportunities. Some say that leading indicators (indicators that signal next price movements before they actually happen) can lead to bogus signals. Just as we have experiences that can help our trading career, we can also have experiences that can cause us to temporarily doubt the validity of this career.

Some negative thoughts trouble the trader’s mind regarding their ability to reach the level of permanent competence. The thoughts seek to convince the trader that she/he cannot be a good trader. The thoughts often come when we are facing losses, crises and vulnerability in our trading career; or when we are staggering under the weight of failures and disappointments in trading.

The truth is that, whether you use indicators or not, no trading methodology is perfect. Do you trade purely on price action? Do you use a highly sophisticated robot in trading? Do you use chart patterns? Or do you use some exotic method brought to you by an alien from another planet? I can tell you that the method is not perfect, as the indicators you berate are not perfect either. This reminds us that uncertainty and losses happen to market wizards as well. For inevitable drawdowns, some think that what once was normal may not be normal again. If you want to use any trading methodology whatsoever, you should remember that we tend to be flawless in our trading results (for we are an instant gratification culture). This kind of mindset does not pay in trading, for it would be like dwelling in a fool’s paradise, and that would not improve our real trading experiences.

Technical indicators still work and they will continue to work, though their uses ought to be coupled with stringent position sizing and conservative risk control, just like any other trading methodologies championed by haters of technical indicators. All such experiences illustrate that making changes that can safeguard our portfolios is possible; and doing so always brings benefits. Market speculators cannot talk about the future with utmost certainty, and would simply buy or sell whenever their strategies signify so. Those who follow the line of the least resistance would open long orders in an uptrend with the hope that the price could go more northwards, or they may open short orders with the hope that the price might go more southwards.

The article is ended by the quote below:

“Interestingly, beginning traders, as well as many experienced traders we have met, exhibit a strong tendency to believe that all of their short-term objectives must immediately be met. But in the long-run, it is actually better to hold a long-term perspective.” – Joe Ross (Source: Trade2win.com)

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders


Tuesday, September 3, 2013

AFC Energy Shares to Nosedive


AFC Energy shares (LSE:AFC) may go further south, based on the price action which is currently on the chart. The market was turbulent in July 2013 and it traded downwards in August 2013. This outlook is expected to continue. 



Further bullish attempts were rejected in July, and since then the price has broken the lower Trendline to the downside. At the same time, the RSI period 14 went below the level 50. The price could eventually reach the support level at 30.00. The power of accumulation has thinned out, and therefore, long positions cannot be sensible, and distribution may push the price lower. As the price nosedives, short trades become vivid as bulls smooth their orders… which may result in transitory bullish correction. The price would go down again, and there would be corrections along the way. The corrections would be effected by bulls’ desperation (they try to open long positions which result in corrections). These retracements would be short-term, but their traces would be visible on the chart.

The forecast is ended with the quote below:

“If you cannot come into the day ready to accept both winners and losers and then move on, then do not go to work that day or do not trade.” – Greg Harmon

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders



Quadrise Fuels International: Stock to Rise



Quadrise Fuels stock (LSE:QFI) is a bull market and it can continue to rise as  sellers stand in their own way due to overcautiuosness caused by repressed fear.



On the chart, the 4 EMAs used are EMA 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left hand of the chart. As you can see, all the EMAs are sloping upwards, and also acting as support to the price. This could be the beginning of a long-term bullish outlook.

Conclusion: On Quadrise, long positions are thereby recommended with safety measures in place. Risk control offers limitation that ensures the safety of your portfolio. Too many orders on a portfolio would over-exert it and may result in significant drawdowns. Even if one would speculate on the bearish side of the market, it should be a short-term order, so that what is supposed to be a day trading idea would not become a position trading idea.


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders



Sunday, September 1, 2013

Daily Trading Forecasts for September 2, 2013



The EURUSD fell by roughly 170 pips last week, closing at 1.3222. There would be some short-lived bullish attempts this week, but the general outlook remains bearish. 



EURUSD: The EURUSD fell by roughly 170 pips last week, closing at 1.3222. There would be some short-lived bullish attempts this week, but the general outlook remains bearish. There is a resistance line at 1.3300, and whereas the price may reach the support line of 1.3100.

USDCHF:  This pair is a bull market which has been able to reject any serious bearish attempts on it. Last week was closed in a range movement, and this week could see the price being pushed upwards towards the resistance levels at 0.9350 and 0.9400 respectively. Would this pair ever see parity again? 

GBPUSD: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable and this fact could continue serving as an aid to bears’ interest. The price action could rightly be called a ranging one, and when a breakout does occur, it is more likely to be towards the downside, going towards the accumulation territory of 1.5400.
   
USDJPY:  This currency instrument – though a difficult market – has now produced a kind of clear signal. It shows a northward possibility, perhaps towards the supply level at 99.00, before any serious retracement.  Long position could be opened with small sizes and tight stops.

EURJPY:  There is a bearish outlook here, and the price would probably keep on going downwards this week. The simple fact is that the EUR is weak and the USD is strong. Therefore the price could go further southward, reaching some demand zones of 129.00 and 128.50 successively.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



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