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Thursday, July 30, 2015

John Arnold: A Retired Natural Gas Trading King

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 10

“Negativity is real, but consistent loss is optional.” – A.M.

Name: John Arnold
Year of birth: 1974
Nationality: American
Profession: Retired funds manager, investor and currently a philanthropist

Career
Raised in an upper-class home, in Texas, USA, John’s dad was an attorney and his mom was an accountant. While John was still a teenager, he lost his precious dad.  In 1995, he earned a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Mathematics from Vanderbilt University.

He started a great career at Enron, enjoying rapid promotion, owing to his ability to make huge profits for the company. There was a year in which he made 0.75 billion USD for his company and as a result, he was given 8 million USD as a bonus in that year. Since then, some people have called him “king of natural gas trading.’

After Enron folded up in the year 2002, John started his own firm with his bonus money. The firm, named Centaurus Advisors, LLC, became rapidly successful. Its assets grew to over 3 billion USD and it attracted some of the best traders around. The firm was based in Houston and it specialized in trading energy products. That was John’s edge.

At the age of 38, John suddenly announced his retirement from active funds management. At least, he’s extremely rich, for he’s invested a lot. He’s now doing what he also enjoys – philanthropy – donating to various interesting causes. John has touched many lives through his generosity and many more lives would be touched. As of March 2013, he was worth 2.8 billion USD. He’s married to Laura Muñoz and they got 3 kids.

Insights:
    1. Some entered the trading world because they are in pitiful situations and they want to get out. There are also some people like John, who’re not from poor families. They entered the world of trading because the like the challenge and become richer than they ever thought could be possible.

    1. John started his trading career while young, and he became a billionaire while still young. He retired in his late 30s. This emphasizes the fact that it’s better to start trading while young. John retired at the age of 38, but he gets richer and richer, because of his investments. He’s now engaged in activities that he likes. Are you working to survive, or are you really engaged in what you like doing, and as a result become financially free? You can retire any time you like, either early like John Arnold, or late like Stanley Druckenmiller.

    1. You shall continue to make progress, irrespective of peoples’ criticisms. Some people now criticize John for what he currently does; yet he does what he thinks is right.

    1. One of John’s secrets is that he specialized in what he could do best. If he tried other things, he mightn’t be as successful as he’s. Some people lose money as stock traders, while making money with futures. Some people lose money with options but make money with Forex. Some people lose money trading popular majors but make money trading exotic pairs. Some people make money with discretionary approaches but lose money with mechanical approaches, and vice versa. Please find out what markets/trading instruments work for you and stick to it.

    1. It’s true that the market is risky, but continual losses are only a matter of choice. You can stop losing in the market if you want.

    1. Look at his quote below, John liked to buy at troughs and sell at peaks: with great success. Please think about that. 

This article is concluded with a quote from John:

"I try to buy things whenever they're trading below what [our] analysis shows to be fair value and sell things whenever our analysis shows that the forward curve is higher than our analysis of fair value."




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Buyers Of Pinnacle Technology Will Always Smile, Since The Stock Is Yet To Reach Its Pinnacle

Pinnacle Technology stock (LSE:PINN) is a promising stock that has a very bright future, and this is just the beginning. Everything you want is on the other side of fear, according to James Altucher; and this is a market in which the bulls need to cast away their fears, summon courage and go long.

Following some significant bullish attempt in February 2015, the price largely consolidated till July 2015, when it broke upwards significantly. The ADX period 14 is above the level 70 showing a high level of volatility in the market. The DM+ is far above the DM-, meaning that the bulls are currently thriving. The MACD (default parameters) has both its histogram and signal lines above the zero line. This is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price is yet to reach its pinnacle indeed!

On Pinnacle Technology, there would be some occasional pullbacks on the way north, but speculators need not panic. Panic and fear can paralyze the ability to think and act wisely. After all, feelings of discouragement or doubt are part of other areas of life too. Eventually, any bearish corrections or consolidations that could be experienced in this market will eventually give way to the dominant bullish bias.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“When my account increases by 50 per cent, I withdraw the excess in order to return it to the original level. This keeps my trade size fairly consistent, ensures I always risk a small proportion of my overall trading capital and that I also get paid from the markets too.” – Simon Clarke

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html


This Is The Major Reason Why You Should Not Hold Phorm Corporation Shares

Phorm Corporation shares (LSE:PHRM) are not supposed to be held if you are a buyer, because the outlook on the market is gloomy. This is a market is which sellers make money, not buyers.

In the chart, the price has shown a long-term downtrend. The price has trended seriously downwards this year and this is what is supposed to continue. The price has not gone clearly above the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is not in the overbought region. This is the type of market in which new sellers make more money when they sell new rallies (which are traps to stiff-necked buyers). The only thing that can stop this expectation is an event that makes the price go above the distribution territory at 8.00.

There is something called excessive training – training beyond the abnormal. You have to look for challenging markets like Phorm Corporation again and again, to the extent of being overstressed. This is what would keep you motivated and encourages huge profits and extraordinary returns on your portfolios. This is what you need to handle hopeless shares like the one being discussed here, and even make money from the downside.  As James Altucher puts it, sometimes a loss is the best thing that can happen. It teaches you what you should have done next time.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

Many traders are smart enough to know that they will win in the long run by taking only the best trades, but they become impatient due to the lack of anything happening right away. They forget that the long run can be “long.” – Andy Jordan

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Sunday, July 26, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 27, 2015

What is happening on the USD/JPY signifies a serious battle between bulls and bears. Although the recent bullish bias in the market remains intact, it is wise to stay away from this pair until there is a clean directional bias in the market. This clean directional bias should be seen this week.

EUR/USD: EUR/USD rose upwards last week and then consolidated till the end of the week. A movement above the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Whereas a movement below the support lines at 1.0900 and 1.0850 would simply reinforce the recent bearish bias in the market. Right now, long trades are not recommended here until there is a clean indication that the bears are leading.


USD/CHF: Surprisingly, the USD/CHF did not come down as seriously as the EUR/USD has gone upwards. Nevertheless, the inability of the USD/CHF to go above the resistance level at 0.9650 means that bulls should approach this market with caution. In case the price fails to rally meaningfully this week, there might be a further bearish correction.

GBP/USD: The Cable closed below the distribution territory at 1.5550 last week, generating a clean “sell” signal. With further bears’ power, the accumulation territories at 1.5450 and 1.5400 would be tested. In case the price moves above the distribution territories at 1.5550 and 1.5600, the current “sell” signal would be invalidated.

USD/JPY:  What is happening on this currency trading instrument signifies a serious battle between buyers and sellers. Although the recent bullish bias in the market remains intact, it is wise to stay away from this instrument until there is a clean directional bias in the market. This clean directional bias should be seen this week.

EUR/JPY:  This crossed closed on a bullish note last week, moving towards the supply zone at 136.00. This has resulted in a clean bullish outlook, which should continue to hold out unless the Yen gains a considerable amount of stamina. This is a situation that can halt further bullish movement in this market.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 27 - 31, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the dominant bias is bearish, this pair made some commendable bullish attempts last week. Price moved upwards by almost 200 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.1000. That resistance line is an important price area, since it must be broken to the upside for the current bullish effort to continue. Should that occur, a subsequent break of the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 would result in a clean bullish bias. On the other hand, any failure of price to break the resistance line at 1.1000 to the upside could result in a serious bearish movement.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Last week, USDCHF was able to maintain its bullish stance in spite of the fact that EURUSD was also making bullish effort. This is one of rare occasions in which EURUSD and USDCHF would be going in the same direction in the short-term. However, things will soon go out of balance and the pairs would go their separate ways. USDCHF might go further upwards, but this would be challenged by the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700. In fact, it is highly probable that CHF may gain serious stamina before the end of this month (this would also affect other CHF pairs), and thus cause USDCHF to fall smoothly.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This mercurial currency trading instrument experienced a southwards movement last week.  There is a bearish signal in the market: which would be valid as long as the distribution territories at 1.5650 and 1.5700 are not breached to the upside. In case those distribution territories are overcome, the current bearish signal would be rendered illogical.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This market traded sideways last week, though the bullish trend on it is not yet over. Should the market move sideways again throughout this week, it would enter a neutral territory. Nevertheless, price could soon go out of balance, resulting in a serious trending move. Yen can become very strong before the end of this month – causing other JPY pairs to tumble – and it can also cause USDJPY to go bearish.  
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
From the demand zone at 134.50, this cross moved upwards by over 150 pips, slamming into the supply zone at 136.00. This has caused a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but it is a confirmation pattern that might be short-lived, since Yen can become very strong before the end of the month, causing bears to dominant the market.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“… No system or set of trades is either winning or losing, they are only so with respect to the position sizing (or money management) that was applied… We have every tool we can long for to control risk while adding to our winners.” - Dirk Vandycke
                                                                                                  

  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html






Thursday, July 23, 2015

Forex Trading Versus Binary Options: Which One Is Better?

“Nobody can predict the future. A Harvard PhD and a high school dropout have equal skills at prophecy.” – James Altucher

It’s no longer a secret that Forex market is the biggest and the fastest-growing market in the world. It’s also not a secret that majority of Forex traders end up sustaining negativity, simply because they don’t know or they fail to do what can really make them profitable.

As a result of this, many people have been singing praises of binary options* as a wonderful alternative, casting aspersions on Forex. They think it’s easier to make money from binary options than from Forex. Is that correct? What are binary options? Investopedia defines it as a type of option in which the payoff is structured to be either a fixed amount of compensation if the option expires in the money, or nothing at all if the option expires out of the money. The success of a binary option is thus based on a yes/no proposition, hence “binary.”

“Binary” means “two parts,” since a speculator will only need to predict that an instrument would rise above (Call) or fall below (Put) a certain price level in a given day or week. Unlike Forex, in which you essentially trade currencies, binary options traders can trade indices, Forex, stocks, and commodities.

Sports, markets and businesses are all zero sum games. Then what about binary options?

Is it possible to make money trading binary option?  Is it possible to make money trading Forex?
The answer to both questions is yes…. If a binary options trader is much conversant with, say, oil market, he can make money predicting whether the price would rise or fall above certain price level in a day or a week.

However, contrary to popular opinion, Forex has certain advantages when compared to binary options. The seeming simplicity of binary options trading – only Call or Put – doesn’t mean it’s easy for enjoying long-term success.

Forex vs. Binary
I’m a living witness to this fact. A trader who uses a system that has only 50% accuracy can survive in Forex, but there is no way she/he can survive with 50% accuracy when trading binary options. A trader with only 25% accuracy can make money in Forex, but she/he will quickly crash when approaching binary options with a system that has a hit rate of only 25% accuracy.

I can risk $50 or $100 to target $200 in Forex, but that’s never possible with binary options. The risks are always higher than the rewards, and that’s a worse expectancy. In binary for example, you can risk $100 to gain $50 or $70 or $85 or even $90, but no broker will ever give you a risk-to-reward ratio of 1 to 1, let alone 1 to 2. Forex inherently gives you a risk-to reward ratio of 1 to 10 or 20 or 30, depending on how long you’re willing to let your profits run. We can enjoy everlasting success with positive expectancy only.

Let’s say a broker allows a reward of $80 for every $100 you risk for each binary prediction, you’ll then need to achieve at least 70% accuracy to survive in the long-term. Believe me, this is very hard because the future can’t be predicated.  With 70% hit rate, you’re likely to experience 4 or 5 losses in a row with 1000 trials, and with this, someone with a small account can deplete it before a winning prediction comes around. With rewards that are smaller than risks, chances of long-term survival using 70% accurate systems are slim indeed. Researchers have confirmed that people have trouble surviving with even 80% hit rate, owing to psychological factors.

In Forex, people have made fortunes with trading systems that have reliability of around 25% - 35%. They do so by following the timeless Golden Rule of trading: Cut your losses short and let your profits run. You can’t do that in binary options. You succeed when an average loss is smaller than an average gain, not the other way round.

We enjoy everlasting success as traders because there are many things we can control, save the market itself. We can control risks and manage our trades effectively. But in binary options, you can’t control anything, for you’re at the mercy of the market forces once a position is triggered.

If a market moves in my favor before going against me, I can eliminate the risk or negativity with a break-even stop, so that a movement against me won’t result in negativity. This is not possible with binary options, for you lose your entire stake irrespective of the fact that a selected instrument first moves in your favor before reversing against you. Though some may say that binary makes you win even if an instrument first moves against you and later moves in your favor, before the expiration. This is also true of Forex; a position that is in a negative territory can later turn positive.

I can decide to cut my loss before my stop is hit, so that my loss is even limited more effectively. If I gain, say about 200 pips in a trade, I can lock part of it and ride the move even further. I can even take part of the profit and ride the move further. These things aren’t possible with binary options. I’m happy when I see that my losses are smaller than my profits. I know if I traded binary, my stakes would be higher than my rewards. Trading binary options is inherently a negative expectancy game. If other financial markets are zero (0) sum games, the binary options is a minus (-) sum game. 

For those who don’t agree with the point raised here, only their personal experience after years will prove the point.

Conclusion: I’m not discouraging people from binary options. There are successful binary traders out there, but I’ve realized that Forex gives me far more freedom to choose my fate in the markets. When you trade a market that you’re very good at, you make fewer mistakes and improve your results. Investing in what you’re conversant with is essential to your financial well-being. Genuine wisdom is scarce, and therefore, success is attainable only when you do what you’re good at. That’s why I enjoy trading Forex: that’s my area of competence.

Please read the quotes above and below, and ponder them. The quotes below are from Markham Gross. They end this article:

“A good trader by contrast will be focused on running a repeatable system having positive
mathematical expectancy without need or regard for knowing or talking about the future.”

“It would be impossible to have gains without some loss along the way. My strategy actually results in more losing trades than winners, which is sometimes shocking to people. We win by keeping losses small.”


*Please note that there are differences between regular options and binary options. This article addresses Forex and binary options (not regular options, a good investment vehicle). In order to know the difference between binary options and regular options, please see this link: http://www.ibinarytrade.com/whats-the-difference-between-binary-and-regular-options/




Source: Super Traders

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Jubilee Platinum: Buyers Are Encouraged to Continue Holding the Stock

Buyers are encouraged to continue holding Jubilee Platinum stock (LSE:JLP) because it has a good potential to continue going further upwards, considering the recent short-term dip in the context of an uptrend and what price action is saying.

4 EMAs are used for this analysis and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. It can be seen that all the EMAs are basically trending upwards. A recent test of the EMA 50 has resulted in a new lease of bullish run. The price may move above the EMAs 20 and 10 occasionally as the bullish journey continues.

The market trends upward when speculators buy more and more. Whenever the market then enters an equilibrium phase, that will mean there is a temporary sideways movement in the market. This may then lead to a trend in a new direction or a continuation of the recent bias. Even the market may move more sideways – it all has to do with what most speculators are doing.

Buyers should hold Jubilee Platinum stock until there is a Death Cross in the market.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Breaking even happens very often to the best of traders - if they were not the best of traders these trades would often have resulted in a loss. Only if we accept the idea of breaking even are we able to focus on new trades without putting ourselves under additional pressure.” - Andy Jordan 

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Castle Street Has Long Been Ripe for the Current Northward Movement

In most of this year, the price on Castle Street (LSE:CSI)  has enjoyed a very sexy northward movement. Indeed, buyers should have held this stock several months ago and as a result of that get generously rewarded.  It is good to continue looking for opportunities to buy here, especially when the price enters into a temporary consolidation phase.

The price would rally, then consolidate, and then rally, and then consolidate, and then rally, and then consolidate. This is the visible pattern in the chart. In April, the price broke upwards, and in July, further upwards break was experienced as the price broke above the support level at 35.00. At the same time, the RSI period 14 also goes into the overbought territory. The price would therefore go further upwards, as the movement is punctuated by occasional pauses along the way. That does not mean the price will drop, but it means the buyers would sometimes have to contend against the sellers before being able to reaffirm their supremacy.

Some wrongly think Castle Street will soon plummet, but we would be wise to trade only what we see.  Always remember: Hope is rarely a good strategy

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“If something goes wrong, you will as a trader have to figure out the reasons for that, analyse and reflect them painstakingly and then just carry on in such a way that things will work better in the future.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Sunday, July 19, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 20, 2015

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD dropped by 280 pips last week, closing below the resistance line at 1.0850. The next targets for the bears are located around the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The recalcitrant resistance lines at 1.0950 and 1.0900 were successfully broken by the bears and thus, they might resist any rally attempts this week.


USD/CHF: As long as the EUR/USD goes down, this pair must go up. The pair moved upward by over 200 pips last week, closing above the support level at 0.9600. A break of the support level at 0.9500 (which was formerly a resistance level) was a major achievement for the bulls. Until the EUR or the CHF gains a lot of stamina, this pair would continue going up.

GBP/USD:  This currency trading instrument rallied last week, but further rally was halted at the distribution territory at 1.5650. For the bullish bias to continue to be valid, the distribution territory must be breached to the upside: otherwise there could be a risk of a strong bearish correction this week.

USD/JPY:  A few weeks ago, this market began to rally from the demand level at 120.50. It rallied by over 350 pips, going slightly above the demand level at 124.00. With further buying pressure, the supply level at 124.50 would be breached this week. 

EUR/JPY:  This cross first consolidated last week, but it then broke downwards on Thursday, trending lower and lower gradually. On Friday, the price closed below the supply zone at 134.50; and since there is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is assumed that the journey to the south would continue, especially as long as the EUR is weak.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, July 18, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 20 - 24, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
EURUSD dropped by 280 pips last week, going below the resistance lines at 1.0950 and 1.0900. The resistance line at 1.0900 (and of course the resistance line at 1.0900) was an adamant obstacle to bears’ interest. Now that the obstacle has been overcome, the next targets for the bears are the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750. The aforementioned resistance lines should server as obstacles to bullish attempts this week, for their breach would mean a threat to the current bearish outlook.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair went north by over 200 pips last week, going above the support levels at 0.9500, 0.9550 and 0.9600. The support level at 0.9500 (which was formerly a resistance level) really proved obstinate for the bulls because it opposed bullish effort for over 2 weeks while the bulls kept on besieging it.  Once the opposition was overcome, price was able to rally smoothly. Since price has closed above the support level at 0.9600, it is possible that the resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9700 will be aimed at. This bullish bias might go on till the end of the month, but things could change in the wake of a strong stamina in CHF, which is expected by the end of the month.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish  
Cable rose significantly last week, battering the distribution wall at 1.5650. Bears have been fighting back at that distribution wall, making it hitherto impossible for bulls to breach it. Nevertheless, the bulls have continued to struggle for supremacy, and that is the reason behind the current consolidation in the market. Price shall go out of balance this week, and it is most probable that the bulls would overcome.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Since testing the demand level at 120.50, this currency trading instrument has gone upwards by 350 pips. The persistent bullish movement has put an end to the recent neutral outlook in the market – for the outlook is now bullish. However, price needs to go towards the supply level at 124.50 and break upwards through it; otherwise there could be a massive bearish correction this week or next week.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross would continue to go south as EURUSD keeps going south. The only hope of a meaningful rally here is an event in which the Euro becomes very strong; otherwise price would continue to drop further and further (whether speedily and gradually). This bearish force is formidable here, coupled with the expectation of a massive gain in the Yen itself around the end of this month.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“What makes trading so fascinating and, at the same time, difficult to learn is that you really don’t need lots of skills; you just need a winning attitude.” – Mark Douglas
                                                                                                  

  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html



Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Larry Hite: What Can You Learn from Him?

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 9

“The best strategy loses its effectiveness when you trade from a place of fear.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen

Name: Lawrence D. Hite
Nationality: American
Profession: Funds manager, trading systems developer, philanthropist

Career:
Larry Hite is an award-winning funds manager who’s one of the forefathers of trading strategies. In 1981, he co-founded Mint Investments, and several years later, the firm became the most successful of its kind (at that time).

He was featured in Jack Schwager’s book titled Market Wizards. Larry also partnered with Man Group and started some ground-breaking trading concepts – which also proved successful. In the year 2000, Larry shifted gears and focused on other things that also mattered to him, including family, investing, funds management and philanthropy. For instance, he founded his own foundation, called The Hite Foundation, which he heads. One source says he also serves as chairman of the Development Committee for the Institute of International Education’s Scholar Rescue Fund, whose goal is to provide safe haven for academics and professionals who are at risk throughout the world.

Insights:
  1. No matter how great your trading method or analysis is, no matter how much information you’ve or how much knowledge you’ve, you can open a position and still experience negativity.  Always see a new trade as a potential loser. Don’t think of how much you can make, but think of how much you can actually lose. With that mindset, you’ll risk as low as possible and trade defensively, thus ensuring your safety. What you can determine is how much you’ll lose; you can’t determine how much you’ll gain.

  1. Protect your wealth. Protect your capital. You need capital to play the markets, and without playing the markets, you can’t make money. Without your capital, you can’t play the markets, and that’s why you need to protect your capital.

  1. When you’ve a good system, please be faithful to it. It can’t work always, but try to never deviate from it. Make this a hard-and-fast rule.

  1. Always respect the market; otherwise, you’ll suffer for your stubbornness. Go with the flow.

  1. Larry says this:I have a cousin who turned $5,000 into $100,000 in the option market. One day I asked him, "How did you do it?" He answered, "It is very easy. I buy an option and if it goes up, I stay in, but if it goes down, I don't get out until I am at least even." I told him, "Look, I trade for a living, and I can tell you that strategy is just not going to work in the long run." In his next trade he put his money in Merrill Lynch options, only this time, it goes down, and down, and down. It wiped him out.” Lesson: Simply cut your loss. Never allow it to run.

  1. What you call markets are really risks, rewards, money and means to financial freedom. When risks are controlled and the flow of the markets is respected, things will work for you as traders.

  1. Many speculators may have different kinds of stories to tell, but the truth is that we’re all speculators. We’re the same. We all have access to a level playing field.

Conclusion: All challenges we face in trading have their hidden blessings; but we’re often blind to the blessings and allow disappointment, ire and fear to take control of our lives when a position doesn’t do what we want it to do. One expert advises that trading should be treated as another splendid opportunity to learn something and improve our skill. We shouldn’t concentrate on money alone.

This article is ended with two quotes from Larry:

“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you. You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”

“I met the guy who wrote this best seller now called, Bringing Down the House, it's about these MIT guys who beat the blackjack tables. And part of the problem, if you're going to be a blackjack counter is that the casinos don't like you. They actively don't like you. And they come and tell you in rather strong things to take your business away. Well, the beautiful thing about the markets, they don't like you, they don't dislike you, they just don't care. They are there everyday. You want to play, you can play.”


Further reading: Advfnbooks.com


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html


Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Northcote – A Worthless Stock

Northcote stock  (LSE:NCT) is virtually worthless as it continues to lose value, going towards zero. Although some bulls see this stock as a wonderful opportunity to go long at very cheap prices, the bears would continue to fight for supremacy, and this may cause a considerable amount of volatility. Speed + magnitude = volatility.

Markets move randomly, and that is why they cannot be predicted, for they are chaotic.  For most part of this year 2015 (with the exception of April) the movement of the stock has been random, yet the loss of stamina in the price is clearly visible.

The ADX period 14 is at the level 20, showing a lack of momentum in the market. The DM+ and DM- are also intertwined since there is no directional movement for now. The MACD, default parameters, has both its signal lines and histogram almost below the zero line (though not conspicuously). The situation on Northcote is clearly dicey and it would be rational to abandon the market until there would be a clean directional bias. For now, more loss in value is anticipated.

There are times when things do not go in favor of the speculator, who can then experience a huge negativity. It is then prudent to lose as small as possible - for huge negativity must be avoided, if practicable.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“In professional trading, however, performance is not determined by psychological
factors. Otherwise, trading strategies that are implemented automatically by computers would be second to none.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Massive Sell-offs to Begin on San Leon Energy

There is a high possibility that massive sell-offs soon may begin on San Leon Energy shares (LSE:SLE), as indicated by the price action in the chart below. Chris Tate says there is a time to be in the market and there is time not to be in the market. Definitely for the bulls, this is not the time to be in this market.

In March 2015, the price made some attempt to go upwards but the upward attempt was halted in April 2015. Since then, the price has moved southward in a slow and consistent manner till now. The price has gone below the EMA 21 while the Williams’ % Range period 20 has moved into the oversold region. This emphasizes the weakness in the market, and as a result of this, the support level at 0.200 could still be attained.

The unpredictability of the market cannot be removed, for it is an inherent attribute. In reality, any speculator who would enjoy a long-term success would find ways to master the unpredictability. The outlook on San Leon Energy is bearish.  

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

Many years of experience are ultimately one of the keys to trading success. And it means that you need to stay the course for quite some time to be a good enough trader. Perhaps this is one reason why so few traders manage to survive the learning curve in trading.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders





Sunday, July 12, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 13, 2015

Last week, the EUR/JPY tested the demand zone at 133.50 several times, but it was unable to break it to the downside. From that demand zone, the price skyrocketed by 350 pips, closing around the supply zone at 137.00. Further bullish movement towards the supply zone at 138.00 would result in clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

EUR/USD: Last week, this pair first went down towards the support line at 1.0950, but further bearish movement was rejected around that support line. From there, the price went upwards by over 200 pips, closing at 1.1158. This bullish movement has put the recent bearish outlook in jeopardy, and in case the price crosses the resistance line at 1.1250 to the upside, it would no longer be logical to open short trades here. Moreover, the movement of the pair would continue to be determined by the events in the Eurozone and they would have impact on the movements of other EUR pairs as well. 


USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument did not go upward significantly last week, for the resistance level at 0.9500 prevented the price from experiencing further bullish movement. In order for the bullish bias to continue to be valid, that resistance level must be broken to the upside; otherwise a serious bearish correction could happen.

GBP/USD:  The Cable went downwards by 250 pips last week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5350. From that territory, the price rallied by 150 pips, but still in the context of a downtrend. Unless the distribution territory at 1.5600 is overcome, this could turn out to be an opportunity to sell short at a better price.    

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY went downward by 200 pips, reaching the demand level at 120.50. It also rallied by 200 pips last week. This week would determine the dominant bias in the market.  

EUR/JPY:  Last week, the EUR/JPY tested the demand zone at 133.50 several times, but it was unable to break it to the downside. From that demand zone, the price skyrocketed by 350 pips, closing around the supply zone at 137.00. Further bullish movement towards the supply zone at 138.00 would result in clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 13 - 17, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair trended downwards in the first few days of last week, challenging the support line at 1.0950. From that support line, price went upwards by 250 pips, reaching the resistance line at 1.1200. The upward movement has been a threat to the existing bearish outlook and a movement above the resistance line at 1.1250 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This week, further weakness in USD may enable this pair to trend further upwards.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Though the bias on USD/CHF is bullish, bulls were unable to take price above the resistance level at 0.9500. That resistance level was tested several times but it could not be broken to the upside, which made the market experience some bearish correction. Price closed below the resistance level at 0.9400 and further bearish correction could invalidate the extant bullish bias. Things would now be difficult for bulls because it is expected that USD would be weak this week, plus CHF may gain a lot of stamina by the end of this month.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is now trending movement on Cable, which dived by 250 pips last week. Price tested the accumulation territory at 1.5350, and then rallied by over 160 pips, closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5500. It is clear that a measure of volatility is now in this market, for it was in an equilibrium phase a few weeks ago. Certain other majors were also in equilibrium phases in some past weeks/months. This week, Cable might continue to make northward attempts, in case bears fail to push price below the accumulation territory at 1.5450.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral   
This trading instrument, which once vacillated between the demand level at 122.00 and the supply level at 124.50, trended strongly last week. Price went seriously south, testing the demand level at 120.50, and after that, price rose by over 230 pips, closing above the demand level at 122.50. The bias could have gone bearish, but the subsequent rise in price has neutralized that. Further northward journey may be deceptive here, for there is still a high possibility that this trading instrument would become weak again this week or before the end of this month. JPY may become very strong by the end of the month and this would send most JPY pairs tumbling.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week, EUR/JPY was unable to go below the demand zone at 133.50, in spite of commendable effort of bears. Price went out of balance around that demand zone and it rallied significantly by 350 pips, closing around the supply zone at 137.00. This strong rally has put the recent bearish bias in jeopardy – a further northward movement of 100 - 150 pips would simply result in a confirmed bullish bias. As a result of the ongoing events in the Eurozone, this cross and other JPY pairs might open with gaps this week (and of course with other EUR pairs).

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Money is made as a by-product of following a sound trading plan.” – Louise Bedford
                                                                                                  

  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html




Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Greek Debt Crisis and Its Effects on Your Investment Accounts

 “When I put on a trade, all I expect is that something will happen.” – Mark Douglas

With a great interest, I’ve been watching the events in the Eurozone. I didn’t write about Greek debt crisis because I wanted to see how things turned out. Many economists and financial journalists have written interesting articles about this issue, stating the causes, effects and possible consequences. I don’t think repetition is mandatory.

What’s happening to Greece is what a nation eventually suffers if their government can’t spend within their means. The US government is another good example of a government that can’t spend within their means, and wise people now ponder the dire/grim consequences that would result in future.

Greece has serious economic problems, and she’s now been given this week to submit a new reform plan. In spite of Eurogroup meetings from time to time, no solutions have been agreed upon. Eurozone leaders will meet on Sunday to try to reach a new deal.

Greek Withdrawal from the Eurozone
Experts are debating whether Greece would eventually quit or be forced to quit the Eurozone. It is possible that the Eurozone leaders and Greece would be able to agree on viable solutions; otherwise, the inevitable might occur. Anything is possible, and of course, with grave effects. 

It is expected that if Greece withdrew from the Eurozone, the withdrawal would cause a great impact on Greek economy, Eurozone economy and world economy. But no matter what happens, the sun will continue to rise in the east and set in the west. I don’t expect any serious effects in the currency markets.

Current and Future Effects of  Greek Debt Crisis on Forex
Since the media started shouting about the Greek debt crisis, there haven’t been any serious effects on the Forex market. The press will always try to find something to write about and whenever the market moves, analysts will try to pinpoint causes for the movement.

The market has a knack for going against people’s expectation. Events that people don’t anticipate are what cause surprise moves, not events that people anticipate.  People didn’t anticipate the unprecedented CHF pairs volatility and there were surprise consequences. Another instance of an event that caused surprise movements was the last major earthquake in Japan, which also caused nuclear fallout. 

There are years in which the markets move very strongly (like the year 2008) and there are years in which the markets don’t move very strongly (like the year 2014). Speculators, especially trend-followers, find it easier to harness decent gains when the markets trend strongly.

When the market goes into an equilibrium phase, then sooner or later, there would be an increase in volatility. Conversely, a strong trending movement would eventually lead to low volatility and more predictable outcome. Time indeed factors in economic events and resulting financial consequences.

Within May – June 2015, there was low volatility in the market, and as a result of that, trend-following strategies suffered. Nevertheless, a measure of volatility has returned to the Forex market since the end of June.

Someone who’s seen oceans and seas will definitely find a pool in the bathroom negligible. On June 29, 2015, the EUR pair and JYP pairs gapped downwards massively. They later bounced upwards and began to trend downwards the following day. They then consolidated till the end of the week. The same price action was repeated on EUR pair and JPY pairs this week, though the downwards gaps were less significant than the gaps of the last week.

What has happened in the market so far is nothing special and nothing special will happen in the weeks and months to come. Any movements or gaps we see won’t be more serious than what we’ve seen so far since the beginning of this year.

Many Will Survive the Markets Unpredictability, You Can Too
Some people want to stay away from EUR pairs, whereas there’s no movement on them that’s more serious than the movement on AUD pairs, NZD pairs, CAD pairs and JPY pairs. Don’t expect any surprises when the public are anticipating them. Surprises come when the public don’t anticipate them.

EUR pairs would continue to move up and down - as usual – but there’ll be no great deal about that. What happened to EUR pairs on June 29 had an adverse effect on me. I’d 3 long positions that were all stopped out at 0.75% loss (0.25% X 3 = 0.75%). Was there a big deal in that?

What happened on July 6 had positive effect on my short trades and I gained 2.0%. Again, there was no big deal in that. The market may move slowly against you or in your favor. The market may move fast against you or in your favor, but you’ll be fine as long as you truncate your negativity.

Please remain faithful to your positive expectancy trading method – in times of losses and in times of gains. Life isn’t a matter of holding good cards but of playing poor cards well. Nowadays, no trader has been dealt perfect market conditions. Often, the secret to gaining control is to both accept those circumstances and manage your trades within the limitations the markets impose on you.

As long as portfolios are concerned, many traders will survive the uncertainties of the future. May you survive as well.

So Greek debt crisis can’t have any adverse impact on your accounts, if you know how to control risk. Though I find articles about the Eurozone interesting, I don’t worry about how that can affect my accounts. That’s the beauty of trading.

Waiter, another bottle of Pepsi, please!

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“Traders who devote less time to trying to beat the markets and more to mastering their own behaviour and emotion will often outperform those who go in all guns blazing. Trading at the end of the day is a long-term educational process and understanding this and having the patience to develop your skills properly will prove more fruitful in the long run.” – Ryhun Rahman


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (July 7 – October 21, 2015)

USDJPY = Sell

AUDJPY = Sell

CADJPY = Sell

CHFJPY = Sell

EURJPY = Sell

GBPJPY = Sell

NZDJPY = Sell

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.


Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Monday, July 6, 2015

Atlas Development Moves Steadily South

There is nothing that cannot happen in the market in our favor or against us. Atlas Development shares (LSE:ADSS) are weak: they have been caught in a long-term, slow and steady downtrend. The market journeyed south from the beginning of this year, and things became really volatile on the months of March to June, forming a continuous chain of hammers in the chart.

In spite of the volatility, the price continued to move downwards, eventually breaking out below the lower Trendline in June 2015. This shows that the ‘sell’ signal has been renewed, for the RSI period 14 itself has gone far below the level 30. This is a formidable bearish signal indeed! The market might eventually reach the accumulation territories at 2.000 and 1.500.

Do not think that the market would simply rally because it is gone too far to the south. Majority think that an overextended market has gone too far in one direction. Nevertheless, the market would continue in the same direction after a short-term consolidation. Strong movements allow further strong movements, as long as the fundamentals behind a movement is valid, meaningful reversals would be few and far between. It takes time for the price to evolve.

Sellers may profit from this price action by renewing their short positions. Sometimes, the best way to protect yourself is to be aggressive.


This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Let us say this first: No trading habit, no advice, and no trading rule is universally valid at all times. More often than not, it all depends on the proper context in which any statement is made, and even in an ideal environment there will always be exceptions and counter-examples.” – Marko Graenitz

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Taders




Buyers Should Stay Away from Kibo Mining, to Avoid Regret

It is better for buyers to stay away from Kibo Mining stock (LSE:KIBO) now, so as to avoid regret. The stock has long been in a perpetual downtrend, for most past of this year. The gap-up that occurred in April 2015 was later filled and the downtrend was resumed.

In the chart, 4 EMAs are used, and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. The price is generally below the EMA 10, 20, and 50 – plus there is now a ‘Death Cross’ in the market. Further southward journey is therefore, expected. It is mandatory that the price move and do so strongly, for this is what is needed to favor trend following trading ideas. Without price movement, no profit can be made.

On Kibo Mining, recalcitrant bulls will almost certainly regret, while consistent bears would almost thrive. The demand levels at 2.00 and 1.00 might eventually be attained. However, it is OK to be realistic in our expectations. Newbies want to win home runs, but veterans know it is better to go for small and consistent profits.


This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Wealth gained by dishonesty will be diminished, but a Trader who gathers by labor will increase."- Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (July 2015)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold remains a bear market, with the price breaking more and more support levels gradually. In this market, occasional rallies should be seen as opportunities to sell short when the price is high in the context of the downtrend. This month, bears would try to target the support levels at 1150.00, 1140.00 and 1130.00 respectively. The expectation would be valid as long as the resistance level at 1190.00 is not overcome by bulls. Therefore, long trades are not recommended this month, unless the aforementioned resistance level is breached to the upside and price closes above it.   


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish   
Since May 2015, Silver has been in a perpetual downtrend; though slowly and gradually. Price would move sideways for some time, and then break out to the downside, and then move sideways for some time, and then break out to the downside again. Long trades are currently illogical in this market, unless the supply level at 17.0000 is overcome (and price trends further upwards from there). Without this condition being fulfilled, any upwards bounce this month could be a decoy for the unwary bulls, as this is the market in which bears thrive. The demand levels at 15.0000 and 14.0000 could be tested easily this month.


  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders
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