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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

What Is the Right Time to Trade?

“Trading success depends on your system, your relationship with yourself and your relationships with others. Your feelings drive all of these components. When I first started, I thought it was all about the system. How silly and na├»ve I was in those days.” – Mike Melissinos

What do you think is the answer to the questions that makes the topic above? There’s no general answer, for it depends on your trading style and approaches. Let’s take some examples.

A scalper looks for opportunity to enter the market in the short-term, and when the opportunity presents itself, the scalper enters the market immediately, taking advantage of short-term market movements. Some swing traders or positions traders have various entry criteria for opening and closing positions. Some enter immediately the entry criteria are met, while some would wait for the market to close or the following day before they enter.

Some traders use pending orders to take advantage of certain price actions and once a pending order is filled, trading begins. Some speculators use fundamental events to enter the market as soon as the entry requirements are met and some use fundamental events to project long-term movements.

As you can see, the right time to trade really depends on your trading style and approaches. Once you enter the market by whatever means or criteria you choose, just make sure that you stick to your trade management rules – plus entry and exit rules. Irrational emotions tempt speculators to go against their rules. While it is difficult to control one’s temper while driving on a busy road, some have learned to control their temper while driving. You can control your emotions while trading and therefore, avoid taking actions that you’ll later regret. 

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“Trading success comes from developing for yourself a good, well thought-out trading plan. That’s a plan which is based on your personal needs, strengths, interests, and all of that.” - John Forman


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Trading Signals for NZD Pairs (April 30 – May 20, 2015)

NZDUSD = Sell

NZDJPY = Sell

NZDCAD = Sell

NZDCHF = Sell

EURNZD = Buy

GBPNZD = Buy

AUDNZD = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

Recent performances
December 2013 – December 2014 = 12.0%
January 2015 = 0.7%
February 2015 = 2.6%
March 2015 = 2.1%

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Kefi Minerals Finds Support at 1.00

For several months in a row, Kefi Minerals stock (LSE:KEFI) has been unable to close below the great support level at 1.00, in spite of the cut-throat attempts from the bears. The bears are desperate to push the price below the support level, but the bulls are too stubborn to allow that (while they themselves have no upper hands).

The struggle between the bulls and the bears has left a rough trail in the market. Although the RSI period 14 is below the level 50, it cannot really be said that the bears have achieved their purpose unless the price closes below the support level at 1.00 and trends further south. This objective would, not doubt, be difficult for the bears to achieve. No matter the direction the price eventually goes, our risk control just got more satisfying. 

Should the bears eventually fail to push the price below the floor (which would likely not happen), the stock could break above the upper Trendline in the chart, going above the resistance level at 1.2 and continuing the upwards journey. The stock must essentially stay above the upper Trendline before it could be said that a bullish bias is confirmed.

Whatever happens, good trading principles can help us trade meaningfully and satisfactorily even now. Paradoxically, difficult experiences may help traders nourish and strengthen their commitment.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Today, compared to, let’s say 15 years ago, online trading has become much quicker, reliable and enjoyable. Now it is a truly different thing!” – Mario Fabbri

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Falkland Oil & Gas May Still Go Up

Falkland Oil & Gas shares (LSE:FOGL) have some signs of stamina in them, in spite of extremely turbulent market phases they experience. The price would skyrocket and then plummet. This is a challenging market for novices - but what is called challenges in trading are really opportunities for super traders.

However, the price might still go up, based on what the 4 EMAs in the chart are showing. The EMAs are 10, 20, 50, and 100. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. Unless the price crosses the EMA 200 to the downside, closing below it, it could still be hoped that the bullish effort in the market has not been invalidated totally.

The condition in the preceding paragraph is what is needed for a bull market on Falkland Oil & Gas; otherwise, we might be in for a long-term bearish ride. There is no trading approach that can make you triumphant unless you control your risk with it and condition your emotions. Just make sure that your losses are adroitly dealt with, for there is no need to sap your energy over numerous negative positions.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“When a chart is in confusion giving us mixed signals, we have learned to step aside. We are interested only in clear-cut trades.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Sunday, April 26, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 27, 2015

The EUR/JPY first consolidated last week, but it broke upwards on April 23, 2015. The upward break has enabled a Bullish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market, and the price might reach the supply levels at 130.50 and 131.00. This outlook would be valid as long as the EUR does not sustain exponential weakness.  

EUR/USD: This pair traded in a tight range until April 23, 2015, when it broke upwards, owing to the stamina in the Euro. The bullish outlook would be valid for this week – except the Euro becomes weak – an event that can cause a reversal of the bullish trend.


USD/CHF: This market first went upwards last week, testing the resistance level at 0.9700. The short-term bullish movement was due to a sudden weakness in the CHF, for all the CHF pairs were affected on the same day. As the CHF eased on the following day, the price dived, almost reaching the support line at 0.9500. The support line must be breached to the downside, for the bearish bias to continue to be in force. Failure to achieve this could cause another rally in the market.

GBP/USD: Because the Cable is strong, an upward movement of 300 pips was witnessed in this market last week. From just below the accumulation territory at 1.4900, the price went upwards, almost reaching the distribution territory at 1.5200. That distribution territory could be battered. Should price fail to close above it, we might witness a bearish correction.

USD/JPY: This is a type of market in which upswings and downswings are short-term in nature. However, a closer look reveals that the bears currently have upper hands, and as a result of this, we might see some selling pressure in force this week.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY first consolidated last week, but it broke upwards on April 23, 2015. The upward break has enabled a Bullish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market, and the price might reach the supply levels at 130.50 and 131.00. This outlook would be valid as long as the EUR does not sustain exponential weakness. 

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 27 – May 1, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Within the first few trading days of the last week, this pair moved in a tight range. On April 23, there was a breakout in favor of the bulls, enabling price to go above the support line at 1.0850. It is possible for the resistance lines at 1.0900 and 1.0950 to the tested. However, there is a good possibility that the pair may become weak again before the end of this week, thus causing price to reach for the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0750.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
Here, the market moved upward on April 22, 2015, owing to the weakness of CHF at that time. In order to confirm this, you can check what happened to all CHF pairs on that very day. The weakness in CHF caused USDCHF to go above the 0.9700, threatening the extant bearish bias. On the following day, CHF eased, and as a result, the pair dropped by 180 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9550. This week, the movement on USDCHF would be largely determined by what happens to EURUSD. A drop in the latter could cause a rise in the former.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a bull market – looking at the considerable stamina in GBP. The market went out of balance around the accumulation territory at 1.4900, trending upwards significantly. A movement of 300 pips has brought price to the distribution territory at 1.5200. The distribution territory itself may even be breached to the upside, as price targets another distribution territory at 1.5250. However, it should be noted that GBP may also ease this week, causing the market to start trending downwards. That could happen before the end of this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish    
This currency trading instrument has been behaving in a dicey manner, while it remains volatile. Upward and downwards movements are short-term in nature, but the overall bias is bearish. There is a probability that the instrument would continue trending lower, testing the stubborn demand level at 118.50. There is a need for strong selling pressure to breach that demand level to the downside.   

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Just like EURUSD, this cross first moved in an equilibrium zone for a few days of the last week, before it broke upwards. While there is a possibility of further northward push, this would be limited, for there is a possibility that Yen would become strong, which could halt the present bullish attempts.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I've changed how I think about money from something I must strive for to knowing that I will have enough by simply making useful decisions. The process of learning to trade is changing from an arduous task to a fun challenge.” - Becky Iannini



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html





Thursday, April 23, 2015

Michelle Williams: A Famous Daughter of a Famous Trader

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 3

“I was born with a fierce need for independence.” - Michelle Williams

Name: Michelle Williams
Date of birth: September 9, 1980
Nationality: American
Profession: Actress

Career
Michelle is a popular actress, just as her dad, Larry Williams is a popular trader. Although, she’s best known as an actress, she also has pedigree of trading proficiency in her.

Michelle proved to be a true daughter of a great trader when she participated in the Robbins World Cup Championship of Futures Trading in 1997 and won the Cup. She won the Cup by making 900 per cent returns – making her the 3rd highest winner of the Championship since its inception. Her dad achieved the highest profit ever realized in the Championship, with 10,900% returns in a 12-month period.

As you might be aware, in 1987, Larry Williams was the winner of World Cup Championship of Futures Trading from the Robbins Trading Company. He turned $0.01 Million to Over $1.1 Million in twelve months.

Insights:
    1. It’s possible to achieve nice returns from trading. It’s possible for women to achieve greatness as traders. It’s possible for a man to be a great trader, and then for his kids to be great traders, and then grandkids, and then great grandkids, etc. to be great traders. Trading excellence can become generational.

    1. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, politicians, lecturers, scientists, accountants, artistes, actors, clerics, technicians, drivers, etc. (the list is endless) can become great traders.  Michelle is a dedicated actress and a world trading champion.

    1. Michelle felt a need for freedom at an early age. Therefore, she decided what she could do with her life when she was young. The need for freedom is an inborn tendency for humans, and financial freedom is part of that. Based on the quotes from Michelle, it’s good to find your direction at an early age, so that you can become successful while still relatively young. I’ve always reiterated the fact that it’s good to start trading at an early age.

The quote at the top of the article is from Michelle and the quote below is also from her:

“I did find my direction at an early age.”




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Angle Stock to Go South

Yes, in what seems to be a recent bullish outlook, Angle shares (LSE:AGL) are tumbling. Towards the end of the last year, the market came down, going further downwards in January 2015. In the same month, there was a crazy rally in the market – it was truly a roller coaster ride.

Since February 2015, the market has been coming down gradually in spite of occasional bullish retracements. Now the market has closed below the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is already in the oversold region. This indicates that the price is currently weak, and it may reach the demand levels at 60.00 and 70.00 ultimately.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Bulls Regret Buying African Potash

Africa Potash stock (LSE:AFPO) is a bear market; and the bulls regret buying the stock. For the past 6 months, the price has been trending downwards slowly and gradually. This is a bias that is expected to continue for the next several weeks and months.

There are currently conflicting signals in the chart. Although the ADX period 14 is not above the level 20, the DM+ is clearly above the DM-, meaning that the bulls are making some effort to push up the price. The MACD default parameters, also has its histogram above the zero line, while its signal lines are below the zero line. All these show that the bulls are making desperate effort in the context of a downtrend.

Now, the bullish effort may work in the short-term, but the price would likely form new lower highs and lower lows (just check how the price deceived the emotional bulls in the past). By the time  the ADX period 14 goes above the level 30 and the DM- moves above the DM+; by the time the MACD has both its signal lines and histogram above the zero line, there would have been a continuation of a strong bearish bias. New buyers will also regret, just as old buyers currently regret.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Sunday, April 19, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 20, 2015

The Cable skyrocketed by 450 pips last week, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.4600 and testing the distribution territory at 1.5050. In spite of the shallow southward correction in the market, the outlook for the Cable this week is bright. The distribution territory at 1.5050 would be tested again and get breached to the upside, as the price reaches for another distribution territory at 1.5100.       

EUR/USD: There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in this market, as the market made commendable effort to go bullish last week (and with a measure of success). This week, it is possible that the price would reach the resistance lines at 1.0900 and 1.0950.


USD/CHF: Just as the EUR/USD went upwards, the USD/CHF has gone downwards. From the resistance level at 0.9850, the price plunged by around 300 pips, reaching the support level at 0.9500. With further selling pressure in the market, the support level at 0.9500 would even be breached, as the price reaches for another support level at 0.9500.

GBP/USD: The Cable skyrocketed by 450 pips last week, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.4600 and testing the distribution territory at 1.5050. In spite of the shallow southward correction in the market, the outlook for the Cable this week is bright. The distribution territory at 1.5050 would be tested again and get breached to the upside, as the price reaches for another distribution territory at 1.5100.      

USD/JPY: On Friday, April 17, 2015, this market closed at 118.89, on a bearish note. One achievement has been made by the bears – they have succeeded in breaking the supply level at 119.00 to the downside, who used to be a stubborn impediment to the bears. Another demand level at 118.00 could be reached.

EUR/JPY: This cross moved upwards by 200 pips last week; going from the demand zone at 126.50 and reaching the supply zone at 128.50. Nevertheless, the bearish bias is still extant, and the only thing that can render it invalid is a situation in which the price goes above supply zone at 129.50.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 20 - 24, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair moved upwards by over 260 pips last week. The bullish journey began at the support line of 1.0550, and price is now above the support line at 1.0800. The next targets for the bulls are located at the resistance lines of 1.0900 and 1.1000, but there must be an ongoing buying pressure for these targets to be reached. The current bullish outlook is delicate, because any weakness in the Euro could send the market tumbling, reaching the support lines at 1.0700 and 1.0600.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/CHF nosedived by 300 pips last week. Price reached a high of 0.9862 and a low of 0.9494. The support level at 0.9500 has already been tested and it could be tested again (even breached to the downside). Ultimately, the support levels at 0.9400 and 0.9350 can also be tested. On the upside, there are resistance levels at 0.9650 and 0.9750.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable is now strong – the bullish effort that started recently having paid off. There is now a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price moved upwards by over 400 pips, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.4600 and testing the distribution territory at 1.5050. In spite of the current shallow bearish retracement, Cable is normally expected to uphold its strength, attaining the distribution territories at 1.6000 and 1.0650.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish    
USDJPY has gone bearish, being able to go below the supply level at 119.00. Price has to maintain its position below that supply level for the bearish outlook to continue to make sense, for any movement above that supply level could put the bears in a defensive position. Should the market continue its weakness this week, the demand levels at 118.50 and 118.00 would be battered.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although this currency trading instrument rose by 200 pips last week (from the demand zone at 126.50 to the supply zone at 128.50), the bearish bias is still in place. Only a movement above the supply zone at 129.50 would render the current bearish bias invalid. Any journey below the current demand levels (127.50 and 127.00) would simply enforce the presence of the current bearish bias.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“KISS”, keep it simple, means you start learning what really works for you, what is “true” for you and then translate that information onto the charts.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html






Thursday, April 16, 2015

A Good Way to Trade My Signals

Some of those who’ve been following my signals might wonder how they can best trade those signals. It might be recommended that certain pairs, like EUR pairs or NZD pairs, be bought or sold on a particular day. Normally, you’re not expected to follow the signals blindly. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

I’d like to remind you of the principle behind the strategy I use to send the signals (although this has been explained in one of the past articles in the year 2014). I look for the strongest or the weakest currency among the majors, selling the weakest major against other majors; and buying the strongest major against other majors.  

Let us check what happened to EUR pairs within April 6 – 10, 2015. We can see that EUR was weak and therefore, most EUR pairs were weak. Some money could’ve been made if EUR was sold against most other popular currencies. Within April 6 – 10, 2015 as well, we can also see that AUD was strong. Some gains could’ve been harnessed by buying AUD against most other majors and selling other majors against it.

It also means that we take advantage of some correlated pairs like AUDJPY and NZDJPY (or EURUSD and GBPUSD), because correlated pairs sometimes move almost in unison. That doesn’t mean that correlated instruments move in the same direction always. The first one may trend in a direction before the other one does so. EURUSD may first trend upwards before GBPUSD does so. At times, the former may move south, while the latter remains trendless or move north.

You can check some of my past signals to see how they were sent. Now, when you’re advised to buy or sell a pair, you’d do well when you buy or sell it after the direction is confirmed by your trading methodology.  For example, a combination of the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in an hourly chart or a 4-hour chart would enable a trader to confirm a bullish or a bearish bias in the near-term. When the ADX 14 and the MACD give a bullish signal simultaneously in one of the recommended time horizons, the winning probability is increased if it’s used to trade my signals. Please check online resources to understand how these helpful indicators work.

Another trader may prefer to use a moving average crossover system, say, Exponential Moving Averages 11 and 56 (EMAs 11 and 56), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) period 14 level 50. When the EMA 11 crosses the EMA 56 to the downside and the RSI period 14 crosses the level 50 to the downside, that’s a “sell” signal. Reverse the logic for a “buy” signal. The EMAs 11 and 56 and the RSI period 14 level 50 are powerful, especially when they give the same signal simultaneously in an hourly chart and 4-hour chart.

When I say, “Buy USDCAD or sell NZDCHF,” the signal would be taken logically as soon as the forecasted direction matches your trading system. Otherwise, the signal might be ignored after 2 days or so. This doesn’t mean that you can’t win if you simply click “buy” or “sell” but it means your odds of winning are enhanced when you trade the signals using other entry conditions.

A speculator who believes in supply and demand levels (resistance and support levels) might want to buy USDCAD only after it’s bounced off an important demand level and started to rally. A fan of Fibonacci extensions and retracements might also want to sell NZDCHF only after the signal meets some Fibonacci conditions. What is your own favorite trading system? Whether you use Elliot Wave or Parabolic SAR, whether you use Bollinger Bands or Volumes or Trendlines or you combine other two indicators, you’ll find it more useful if you also employ them with my signals. Whether you use a discretionary or systematic trading system, you’ll find it helpful when it’s used with my signals in mind.

Please, remember that trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“Appreciate the process of trading. Don't focus on the prize. Don't worry about past mistakes, and avoid worrying about the future until it happens. By appreciating an ongoing trade moment by moment, you'll not only have more fun, you'll end up more profitable in the long run.” – Joe Ross


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Tuesday, April 14, 2015

What Is the Best Trading Approach to LGO Energy?

LGO stock (LSE:LGO) currently requires trading methods that work in bear markets, for the dominant bias is bearish. In spite of desperate effort from the bulls, the bias remains bearish.

In the chart, 4 EMAs are used and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown on the top left side of the chart. The EMAs are sloping downwards, and the price is generally under the EMA 200.

At the present, the price is slightly above the EMAs 10 and 20, going towards the EMA 50. Should any bearish candle form around this place, it would be an opportunity to sell short again. The bulls may make some attempts to test the EMA 20 and 50 again and again, but the overall bias will remain bearish as long as the price does not cross the EMA 200 to the upside.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Winning traders take responsibility for their actions. When you identify what you can control, and take responsibility for it, you feel empowered. You feel in control, and you are ready to act decisively. And when you feel in control, you are in a winning state of mind. You'll feel relaxed and alert, and ready to see opportunities and profit from them.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Monday, April 13, 2015

Bears Regret Selling UK Oil & Gas

UK Oil and Gas shares (LSE:UKOG) are now attractive to interested bulls, in spite of the current volatility in the market. In the last months of the year 2014 and zthe early months of the year 2015, the price consolidated.

Some consolidation to the downside in the month of February 2015 could have led some bears to believe that they would make some gains by going short. This is an action they should be regretting by now. In March, the price moved upwards and broke out in favor of the bulls – as you can see that the price crossed the upper Trendline to the upside and closed above it. In this month of April, the price skyrocketed…

Right now, the market is experiencing a serious volatility. The pullback we are looking at should be temporary, for the RSI period 14 went into the overbought region, and there was bound to be a short-term correction. The RSI is still above the level 80, showing a strong bullish trend. The best approach here is to go long. The next target is around the supply level at 6.0.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Sunday, April 12, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 13, 2015

The EUR/JPY plunged by roughly 350 pips last week, as forecasted. The price reached a high of 131.29 and a low of 127.20. The outlook for this week is also bearish, as long as the EUR is weak. The next targets for the bears are located at the demand levels at 127.00 and 126.50.

EUR/USD: This pair is very weak right now – owing to a deep weakness in the EUR and a deep strength in the USD. In fact, the EUR is one of the weakest currencies among the majors, and so are most EUR pairs. A rally of 400 pips is significant enough to result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern and therefore, further plunge is expected this week.

USD/CHF: This pair rose throughout last week, enabling a clean bullish bias in the market. There are support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, which should do a good job in arresting any bearish plunges along the way. There are also resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950, which should serve as next targets for the bulls.

GBP/USD: Just like its EUR/USD counterpart, the Cable journeyed a downwards movement last week. The downwards journey has enabled the end of the recent tight consolidation phase in the market, allowing the bears to reign. The price could thus reach the accumulation territories at 1.4600 and 1.4550 this week; although the possibility of a rally cannot be ruled out.

USD/JPY: On this currency trading instrument, the bulls have fought to keep the price upbeat. However, the situation of the bullish outlook is unstable. It is safe to assume that the bullish outlook will be valid as long as the price is above the demand level of 119.00.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY plunged by roughly 350 pips last week, as forecasted. The price reached a high of 131.29 and a low of 127.20. The outlook for this week is also bearish, as long as the EUR is weak. The next targets for the bears are located at the demand levels at 127.00 and 126.50.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html 



Saturday, April 11, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 13 - 17, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair plunged by 400 pips last week, owing to the very weak condition of EUR. In fact, most EUR pairs are weak – hence the justification of the ongoing bearish movement. The market is expected to keep going further downwards next week, reaching the support lines at 1.0500 and 1.0450. On the upside, there are resistance lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800, which should challenge any rallies in the course of this week, for only a break above the resistance line at 1.0800 could threaten the current bearish outlook.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish  
USD is strong and CHF is generally weak. The USD/CHF pair was able to trend higher last week, rising from the support level at 0.9500 and reaching the resistance level at 0.9800. The expectation for this week is bullish, which may see price reaching other resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950.  The bears would not keep their fingers crossed, looking at this pair as it makes further bullish journey. However, the bears’ attempt to push the pair downwards may be frustrated at the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent equilibrium phase on Cable came to an end as the market nosedived, testing the accumulation territory at 1.4600. Cable reached a high of 1.4980 and a low of 1.4586 last week. There is now a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is probable that further southwards movement could make price reach the accumulation territory at 1.4500. On the other hand, there is also a possibility that GBP itself could make visible effort to rally this week, so the distribution territories at 1.4850 and 1.4900 are being watched.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish    
The bias on this currency trading instrument is still bullish, though the bias is in a precarious position. The bulls are fighting desperately to sustain their hegemony, but price constantly threatens to break down. The only factor that keeps the bullish bias in place is the stamina in Greenback itself. Should Greenback experience any weakness, this trading instrument can tumble. The bulls might keep on struggling to maintain the bullish bias; which will not be truly over until the demand level at 119.00 is broken to the downside.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
A drop of more than 350 pips on this cross has been significant enough to bring about a confirmed bearish outlook on the cross. On Friday, April 10, 2015, price closed at 127.47, while the bias remains strongly bearish. This cross may continue going south this week, reaching the demand zones at 126.50 and 126.00. EUR is weak indeed.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money.” - Larry Hite



  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html



Thursday, April 9, 2015

Dirk Vandycke: Telling the Truth about Trading

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 2

“All predictions are about the future. And, a lot of stuff can happen between now and then.” – Dave Landry

Name: Dirk Vandycke
Country: Belgium
Profession: Trader, lecturer and software developer
Website: Chartmill.com

Career
Dirk Vandycke has been a trader and market researcher since the year 1995. He specializes on market dynamics, chart analysis and behavioral finance. He’s a prolific writer (having written numerous insightful and helpful articles about trading) and a software developer. He also teaches software development and statistics at a Belgian University. Some of his though-provoking articles about trading can be found at: http://chartmill.com/documentation.php?a=catPress&orderby=date&order=DESC

Insights:
  1. According to one writer, illusions are something very pleasant; the only disadvantage is that they tend to burst like a bubble. It’s only illusion that makes us think that the secret to our success lies in trading strategies. Lies don’t help people, otherwise the vast majority of traders wouldn’t be losing. The truth about trading is blatant, yet that’s what can help you. Many vendors tend to give you the impression that trading is easy. It isn’t easy: you’ll have to work hard before you reach a stage where you find it easier to make money.

  1. When you get hold of a good strategy that has proven to be effective in the past, don’t abandon it because of a losing streak. There’s nothing in this world that isn’t temporary – including losing streaks. Why would you abandon a great strategy when it’s about to experience a winning streak again? If you abandon a good system because of a losing streak, the newly found system will also experience a losing streak sooner or later (or right away). You can’t find lasting success by moving from one strategy to another. You can only find success by getting a positive expectancy system and sticking to it. You don’t have any control over the movement of price, but you’ve control over your risk. You should lose as little as possible during a losing streak and maximize your gains during a winning streak. By controlling your winners and losers, you’ll end up being victorious and getting rewarded.

  1. Software can really help in market analyses, thereby enabling us to make informed trading decisions. The software can help us scan the markets and filter out bogus setups, leaving us with great setups to choose from. This doesn’t guarantee that the market will move in our favor. Nevertheless the Golden Rule of trading will help us become triumphant. The Golden Rule has to do with cutting losses, running profits, managing money in a prudent way and rock-solid discipline.

  1. Surprisingly, easy trading systems can generate better results when compare to intricate systems. Intricate systems aren’t the Holy Grail, they just give more headaches when used to analyze the market.

Conclusion: There’s no certainty in life. Why should you expect such in the markets? If there were certainty, then there would be no market. There’s no guarantee that a person can’t be sick. There’s no guarantee that a person can still be alive by next month. There’s no guarantee that a marriage can last for the next ten years. There’s no guarantee that a person can retain her/his job for the next ten years. There’s no guarantee that a student will get a good job immediately upon graduation. There’s no guarantee that unforeseen times and events can’t befall anybody, though it is OK that we keep our chin in the air. Why should we look for guarantees in trading? The uncertainty and the unpredictability that bring headaches, frustration and losses to some are the same factors that bring peace of mind, emotional and financial freedom to us. The unpredictability and uncertainty in the markets have become our friend. They’re our ally, just as super traders have made them their ally.

This piece ends with a quote from Dirk:

“Don't focus on strategy, focus on the things we can control: cutting losses and riding (adding to) winners!”



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


A Violent Breakout Expected on Blinkx

Blinkx stock (LSE:BLNX) is currently a choppy market in which buyers and sellers go through rough times. Looking at the market closely, there is a kind of subtle consolidation. There is no serious confirmation pattern here, but when a breakout does occur, it would probably favor the bears.

In the chart, the ADX period 14 is used. Both the ADX line, +DM and –DM are closely in intertwined, all around the level 20. This shows that the market does not have any momentum, and there is no significant movement. A serious breakout will soon occur. The MACD default parameters has both its signal lines and histogram below the zero line. The means that if there is a group that is winning the battle right now, it is the bears, for the price is consolidating to the downside. There would soon be a breakout in the market, though this does not rule out a possibility of a breakout to the upside as well. 

A break above the resistance line at 34.00 would result on a confirmed bullish outlook, while a break below the support line at 28.00 would result in a confirmed bearish outlook.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Take the time to work on getting to know yourself intimately. After all said and done you are your greatest trading asset from which everything flows, so take the time to learn about yourself, and do so without judging yourself.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Buy Wincanton and Lose Your Shirt

Wincanton shares (LSE:WIN) are not favorable to buyers at the present. Although the price rallied in the past, until the end of March 2015, things have now turned bearish. What we even saw in March was largely a sideways movement, for there was a tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

In the chart, the price has closed below the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is around the oversold region, i.e. around the region below the level 70. Generally, the Williams’ Percentage Range is sloping downwards as the price remains below the EMA 21. This is a sell signal, and unless the price crosses the EMA 21 to the upside, closing above it, the signal is valid. 

It is likely that buyers will suffer in this market. The next targets for the bears are the support levels at 150.00 and 140.00.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Traders will be able to make lots of money while those who refuse to prepare themselves with education will have a horrible shock.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Trading Signals for AUD Pairs (April 8 - 30, 2015)

AUDJPY = Buy

AUDUSD = Buy

EURAUD = Sell

AUDCAD = Buy

AUDCHF = Buy

GBPAUD = Sell

AUDNZD = Buy


NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained.

Recent performances
December 2013 – December 2014 = 12.0%
January 2015 = 0.7%
February 2015 = 2.6%
March 2015 = 2.1%

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for April 6, 2015

The USD/CHF went upwards last week – just in opposite of what the EUR/USD was doing. The market first made some bullish attempt, reaching the resistance level at 0.9750. Further bullish journey was rejected at that resistance level and price plunged by  250 pips, testing the support level at 0.9500. The bearish movement this week may make the price go below that support level.

EUR/USD: This pair first went downwards last week, reaching the support line at 1.0750. The price could not close below the support level, and therefore, it rallied massively by more than 250 pips. The price could go upwards this week, reaching the resistance line at 1.1000. The price closed above the support line at 1.0950: the price might test the aforementioned resistance line again. It may even breach it to the upside.


USD/CHF:  The USD/CHF went upwards last week – just in opposite of what the EUR/USD was doing. The market first made some bullish attempt, reaching the resistance level at 0.9750. Further bullish journey was rejected at that resistance level and price plunged by 250 pips, testing the support level at 0.9500. The bearish movement this week may make the price go below that support level.

GBP/USD: The Cable has been consolidating for about 2 weeks, and the bullish breakout that occurred on Friday, April 3, 2015, did very little to change the dominant bias (which is neutral). In recent times, the price gallivanted between the distribution territory at 1.4850 and the accumulation territory at 1.4750. A break above the accumulation territory at 1.4900 looks promising, providing that the price also goes above the distribution territory at 1.5000. At the time, the bias would have turned bullish. Any movement downwards, by 100 to 200 pips would merely reinforce the existing neutral outlook.

USD/JPY: The currency trading instrument closed at 118.97, on a bearish note. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price is expected to break the stubborn demand level at 118.50 below, going further south.

EUR/JPY: This cross looks strong right now and the price may continue going upwards slowly and gradually, especially as long as the EUR is strong. Any weakness in the EUR would cause the cross to plummet, because the outlook for some JPY pairs this month is bearish.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (April 2015)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish
The dominant bias on Gold has turned bullish as bulls are making effort to push price north. This fact has proven to be true in the last few weeks. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is likely that bears effort will often be frustrated, enabling the resistance levels at 1215.00 and 1220.00 to be attained. So it is expected that Gold would continue its upwards journey against all odds, unless the support levels at 1175.00 and 1170.00 are breached to the downside. It is the only event that can put the existing bullish outlook in jeopardy.


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bullish   
The bias on Silver is bullish, but the present price action in the market has put the bias in a precarious position. It is rational to conclude that bulls could continue to put occasional selling pressure in check (especially as long as Gold is also able to maintain its near-term strength).  The targets to be attained are situated at the supply levels at 17.5000 and 18.0000. The bullish bias would be valid as long as the demand levels at 16.2000 and 16.0000 are not broken to the downside.  This mean that the demand level at 16.2000 should first be broken and later, another demand level at 16.0000 should be broken. Then the dominant bullish bias would be over.




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Saturday, April 4, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 6 - 10, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair first traded downwards last week, reaching the support line at 1.0750. Around that support line, further bearish movement was rejected and price rose by 250 pips. There is now a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart: there is a possibility that the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 could be challenged this week. The support lines at 1.0950 and 1.0800 should try to resist possible bearish plunges along the way.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish   
Greenback is weak and Swissie is strong – hence the current bearish outlook on USD/CHF market. Price tried to rally last week, reaching the resistance level at 0.9750, but further rally was rejected there and price nosedived. The bears are now testing the support level at 0.9500; they might push the price towards the support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400. With more intense bearish pressure, the price might even go beyond those support levels.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
Last week, price on GBPUSD moved between distribution territory at 1.4850 and the accumulation territory at 1.4750, before a breakout to the upside occurred.  In spite of the bullish breakout, which happened on April 3, 2015, the market is generally trendless. The market is now above the accumulation territory at 1.4900, and things would turn bullish as soon as the distribution territory at 1.5000 is overcome. Any movement below the accumulation territories at 1.4850 and 1.4800 will simply reinforce the existing neutral bias.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish    
All bullish effort on this currency trading instrument has been rendered useless. In fact, long trades are no longer sensible here, for the trend has turned bearish. Generally, the outlook on JPY pairs for the month of April is bearish and the weakness may start before the end of this week or next week. The next barrier the bears will have to overcome is the demand level at 118.50, which is currently an obstacle to the bearish outlook.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
One of the factors that account for the strength in this market is the fact that EUR is strong. It is probable that the strength will continue, which may make the market go further upwards. Therefore, the supply zones at 131.50 and 132.00 could be attained. One thing should be noted: the outlook on JPY pairs for this month is bearish and this cross would go up only as long as EUR is stronger than Yen. Whenever Yen becomes stronger than EUR, the cross would plummet.    

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“…Look at what the market is doing right now. When it’s going up, then buy. When it stops going up, then sell. And when it’s going down, go short or stay out. It’s that simple.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp



  
What Super Trader Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know

“Trading and investing are games of possibility. We know from quantum physics that the universe is a place of infinite possibility. Isn’t it time that you found your own individual self and expressed that in your trading and investing?”

The markets offer riches that can’t be accessed unless you become a trader or an investor. Despite your trading experience, you’re to stand your ground in determination, no matter the challenges and uncertainty in the markets. Refuse to give up or give in to the pressure to quit. Imagine if setting a goal for yourself, you planned to make a certain percentage within a month or a quarter, but you ended up reaching that goal only after six months or one year; don’t feel bad. Instead, say, “I’ll meet the goal sooner next time.” You don’t need to be discouraged simply because you fail to meet a goal for a period of the time.

We believe it’s possible to make profits in the markets, and that can be done consistently on annual basis. What you don’t believe, you don’t get empowered to become.  We don’t care what causes the beginning of a long-term bias in a market. What matters is that we profit from the bias, without knowing why the bull and the bear take their positions. Many people make money from long-term biases, and certain people lose; but a determined trader will not quit.  If a horse throws off a determined rider, she or he will mount it again.

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn’t do than by the ones you did,” said Mark Twain. Poverty has become widespread and it’s bound to continue increasing globally. Think about your loved ones and your future. Think about your children and your financial security when you become old. Do you want your child to be richer than you? Please think about teaching your kid the art of trading, for it doesn’t hurt if your kid becomes the wealthiest person in your family.

Trading is one of the greatest jobs and one of the highest paying jobs in the world, but it’s also one of the most challenging. When the challenges are overcome, honestly, things would become easier than thought. Our breakthrough begins in a new direction, for speculation is a fantastic lifestyle in which our brains help us make money and our self-control helps us remain permanently successful.

WHAT SUPER TRADERS DON’T WANT YOU TO KNOW. Super Traders: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Copyright: Advfnbooks.com

This piece is ended with a quote from Mercedes Oestermann van Essen. The quote at the beginning of the price is also from her:


“Becoming comfortable with who you are, and learning what motivates you in a positive and expansive way is the first step on the road to lasting trading success and financial freedom.” 

Annual Trading Forecast on ADVFN (2015)

ADVFN shares (LSE:AFN) look promising, showing a great deal of energy. The price consolidated last year and broke upwards significantly this year. The price topped at the supply level at 130 and then retraced lower towards the near-term demand level at 117. We know this is a bull market, but buyers should look for optimal entry price points. What you know is only useful when it is used rationally.

In addition to the breakout from the upper Trendline in the chart, the RSI period 14 is also staying above the level 50. There is clearly stamina in the market and while occasional southward retracements may be expected, they would simply end up forming lower highs as the price goes for higher highs.   

The ADVFN price may reach the supply levels at 160, 170 and 180 this year; as the price meanders its way further north. We should not see trading as being a tug of war between the bulls and the bears because these souls are the secret behind the movement in the market, which enables us to profit from the market movement. Without movement in the market, there cannot be profit.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Your trading journal is not meant to be a life diary. It is meant to assist you to focus on what matters. What matters is that you re-train your mind to think naturally in terms of opportunities, even in the face of adversity.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Annual Trading Forecast on Exxon Mobil (2015)

Exxon Mobil stock (NYSE:XOM) is very weak right now. The stock trended downwards towards the end of last year (2014), and it went further downwards this year. Things have been bearish so far.

In the chart, 4 EMAs are used and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown on the top left part of the chart. As it can be seen, all the EMAs are sloping downwards, signifying a serious weakness in the market. The weakness is supposed to continue as new sellers join the market, going short anytime the price tests the EMA 20 or 50.

The bull often tries to push up the price in the market, but this is countered by the bear, and therefore, any rally in this market is an opportunity to sell (unless there is a Golden Cross, which is a situation in which the price crosses the EMA 200 above and closes above it). The bull has proven to be ineffectual in this market.  A creature calls itself a hawk, but it is unable to carry a mouse or a lizard.

The accumulation territories at 60.00 and 50.00 may be tried this year.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Trading and investing are games of possibility. We know from quantum physics that the universe is a place of infinite possibility. Isn’t it time that you found your own individual self and expressed that in your trading and investing?”- Mercedes Oestermann van Essen

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals




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