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Sunday, March 29, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for March 30, 2015

The Cable moved only sideways throughout last week, with neither the bull nor the bear gaining an upper hand. As long as the bull and the bear seem to have equal stamina, the sideways movement can continue – until there is a rise in momentum which could cause an imbalance in the market. The imbalance will most probably favor the bull.

EUR/USD: On Friday, March 27, 2015, this pair closed at 1.0887, on a slight bullish note. The bias is still bullish while there are support lines at 1.0750 and 1.0700. Moreover, there are resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050. There must be a break above the resistance lines or below the support lines, for the trend to continue in favor or against the bull.


USD/CHF:  In spite of some visible effort by the bull, to push the price upwards. This is a bear market. The only thing that can render the bearish outlook useless is an event that causes the price to go above the resistance level at 0.9800 first, and then 0.9850 later. Should the current weakness in the USD continue, the price could retest the support line at 0.9500, which was tried last week.

GBP/USD: The Cable moved only sideways throughout last week, with neither the bull nor the bear gaining an upper hand. As long as the bull and the bear seem to have equal stamina, the sideways movement can continue – until there is a rise in momentum which could cause an imbalance in the market. The imbalance will most probably favor the bull.

USD/JPY: This is currently a weak currency trading instrument. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the demand level at 118.50 could be tested. On the other hand, some weakness in the Yen is expected this week or next week, which may cause this instrument to rally eventually.

EUR/JPY: The situation on this cross is dicey and on would need to wait to know the next price action before taking a position. The bullish gain that was realized last week has nearly been forfeited, but a possible rally might cause the recent bullish outlook to become more significant.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



Saturday, March 28, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 30 – April 3, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD, which has been making some bullish attempt since a few weeks ago, is now above the support line at 1.0850. On the downside, there are support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0700. On the upside, there are resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.2000. It is expected that price will oscillate between the resistance line at 1.2000 and the support line at 1.0700 in the week. Only a significant movement will make price go above that resistance line or below that support line.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish   
This pair remains bearish in spite of some faint attempts by the bulls, to halt the situation. There are support levels at 0.9450 and 0.9400. There are also resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800; plus price is supposed to move to and fro between the resistance level at 0.9800 and the support level at 0.9400. There must be a very strong momentum in the market before price can breach that resistance level to the upside or that support level to the downside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The movement on Cable for the last week was flat, and should the market remain flat for this week, the overall bias would turn neutral. The recent bias is bearish and the current price action shows a serious tug of war between the bull and the bear. For the price to move seriously (to go out of balance), either the bull or the bear must dominate, for price will remain flat as long as the bull and the bear appear to have equal strength. Whether this week or next week, there would be a rise in momentum, which may force the price below the accumulation territory at 1.4750 or above the distribution territory at 1.5050. However, it is more likely that Cable would rally, meaning that the expected increase in the momentum will likely favor buyers.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish    
USD/JPY is currently weak. Price tested the demand level at 118.50 last week and it could even test another demand level at 118.00. However, there is a possibility that there would be a bullish breakout this week or next week, especially on an occasion of a serious weakness in Yen.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on this cross is bullish and it may continue to be bullish on the condition that it does not go below the demand zone at 128.50. Any bullish continuation this week may enable this cross to reach the supply zones at 131.00 and 131.50. Generally, some weakness is expected in JPY (this week or next week), and this may allow some JPY pairs to rally. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The markets always offer opportunities, but to capture those opportunities, you MUST know what you are doing. If you want to trade these markets, you need to approach them as a trader, not a long-term investor.” – Dr. Ken Long



Thursday, March 26, 2015

Lan Turner: Turning a Simple Trading Idea Into Millions

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 1

“Many would-be traders are afraid to take the profession seriously. They dream of making huge riches, but they aren't willing to put in the time and effort to make their dreams come true.” – Joe Ross


Name: Lan Turner
Date of birth: February 5, 1964
Nationality: American 
Website: Lanturner.com

Career:
Lan Turner is a proficient public speaker, publisher, and an author. Being a professional stocks, futures and Forex trader, he’s had more than two decades of experience in financial indsutry. Lan is renowned for  his seminars and trading ideas, having presented them in the US and other countries. He’s the founder and CEO of Gecko. For many years, he taught finance at Utah State University. He designed Track ‘n Trade and Trade Miner in 1998. He’s also the president of PitNews Press and editor-in-chief of PitNews Magazine.

Insights:
  1. Success in other fields doesn’t automatically translate to success in trading. Lan was successful as a distributor of computer hardware, and when he first invested his money the markets, he made substantial gains. He thought he was good until he lost almost all the money. No matter you level of education or the kind of job you’re doing, you still need to learn the art of trading because it’s a different world entirely.

  1. Gamblers lose their money right away or first gain money before they lose it all. When gamblers make money, they think they’re good just before the markets prove them wrong. Good traders may also lose money before they make money (or make money before they lose money), but they make gains and losses based on their trusted trading methods. In addition, the losses have minimal effects on their portfolios while the profits make their account grows; though not be leaps and bounds, but slowly and gradually.

  1. When the going was tough, Lan didn’t quit because he discovered he loved trading. You can’t last long in the markets if you don’t love trading with passion.

  1. If you’ve become a success trader, how can you help others to become successful? How can you help other avoid the pitfalls that affected you badly in the past? Lan has found his secrets to success in the markets and he’s doing his best to help other become successful through his products and services. Honestly, his products and services are among the best in the trading industry. Please check his website in order to benefit from those products and services.

  1. There are trading concepts and principles that work. Some of them may already be known by you or some of them may come to you as a surprise. The knowledge you’ve is useless unless you use it to improve your life – hence your trading results. Lan Turner is an exponent of recurring trends and market cycles, which are genuine and powerful. For example, if you can know that USDJPY tends to rally within certain period of every year, with about 80%, 90%, 95% or even 100% accuracy, for the past 10, 12, 14, or more years, you can take advantage of that knowledge.  This is one simple idea that can be used to make millions/billions in the markets when used properly and applied to other trading instruments.

Conclusion: It’s sensible to take the right position in the right market, otherwise, things mayn’t go as expected. Doing that is like we’re aware that a farmland is infested with rodents, yet we plant peanuts in it. We need trading methods that ensure everlasting safety of our portfolios. We want to take trades based on the seasonal trends that have proven dependable in the past. Although past results aren’t indicative of future results, they can give us the best insight into the future. We wouldn’t want to speculate based on the things that have proven to be flops in the past.

This piece is ended with a quote from Lan:

“If I only knew then, what I know now! Stop trying to reinvent the wheel, just use what works!”



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Wednesday, March 25, 2015

A Break from the Norm

Breaking free from the usually dreary and cryptic anthology… welcoming entertaining, simple, easily-understood and provocative poetry…

See three samples below:



(65) VACANCIES

An applicant called today
Dressed well but looked hopeless
Credentials filled his bag,
But he left as he came.

Vacancies in newspapers,
Vacancies on posters,
Vacancies on the web,
Vacancies on the air.

Vacancies that do not exist,
Vacancies have been filled,
Vacancies from fraudsters
That hoodwink the helpless.

The use of long arms,
Or the use of connections,
Or the use of kickbacks
Is not always effective.

Passing exams is battle,
Going to college is war,
Getting good jobs is futile,
And some jobs need no degrees.

An applicant called today
But his objective failed.
He left only papers,
Will he go on like this?

Ben Alani (November 2007)




(105) SOLDIER ANTS

…We shall all enemies batter,
…we shall all obstacles scatter,
…we shall all do that matter,
…we shall make our ranks fatter
For our future gather
 The food-gathering for generation latter
There are many reasons to gather
 Tomorrow may be nothing but water,
And many humans madder
 So, to bite them, we are gladder –
With a million teeth harder.
 Explore for a safer haven
Meanwhile a myriad
 Insect and animals fall prey,
To our battalions and commandos –
…And we shall make our ranks fatter,
…we shall all do that matter,
…we shall all obstacles scatter,
…we shall all enemies batter,
…we shall all enemies batter,
…we shall all obstacles scatter,
…we shall all do that matter,
…And we shall make our ranks fatter.
For our future gather
  Till there’s nothing for human madder
Our ranks move forward
 Ruthless reckless restless
As we search the Promised Land,
 Ruthless reckless restless
As we act with one accord
 Ruthless reckless restless
As our youngs’ future counts
 Ruthless reckless restless
As our adversaries scramble –
…And we shall make our ranks fatter,
…we shall all do that matter,
…we shall all obstacles scatter,
…we shall all enemies batter.

(Ben Alani, 2009)




(107) A BUFFALO DIES IN A TOWN

A buffalo dies in a town
Where there’s no knife
To those who know not their values
Opportunities flash themselves

A buffalo dies in a town
Where there’s a need for meat
By they don’t recognize that
The dead buffalo is a bundle of meat –
Opportunities come as a curse
Peace often disguises as disappointments
Prevention from worst experiences comes as delays

A buffalo dies in a town
Where they prefer to look for meat in the desert
Acres of diamonds – acres of diamonds
What we have we never appreciate

A buffalo dies in a town
Where it’s left to rot and waste
We take no advantage of opportunities

A buffalo dies in a town
Where residents are complacent and sluggish
On the other side the grass is always greener
Conwell’s Acres of Diamonds! – There’s no pity
For the rich man’s child
Who’s overpampered and ungrateful
To create wealth is better
Than to inherit it

A buffalo dies in a town
Where things are taken for granted
But tough times make people
Tough, self-reliant and resilient
More than being garrulous and loquacious
Actions do matter
Strengthening those persevering
On the earth
The courage to face the odds
In the world
And prove themselves by their effort.

(Ben Alani, 2009)


The rest of the 108 poems can be seen here:





Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Annual Trading Forecast on Nokia (2015)

Nokia shares (NYSE:NOK) have formed what I can call a predictable channel in the market. Based on the price action for the past several months, one would need to use a swing trading approach for this market, selling at the peak and buying at the trough.

The indicators in the chart are currently nothing to go by. The ADX period 14 is below the level 20, while the DM+ is closely parallel with the DM- (there is no clear signal). The MACD default parameters, also gives a signal that is contrary to what the ADX is showing – both its histogram and signal lines are below the zero line.

It is better to stay away from this market, unless one is a short-term trader. This market is not currently favorable to position traders and investors. In future, a break below the support line at 7.00 would mean a great bearish continuation while a break above the resistance line at 9.0 will also mean a great bullish continuation. By then, there would have been a clean Bearish or Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

It is an exaggeration to say that something is unprecedented.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Feelings that come up during trading and life all have positive intentions. Successful people recognize these feelings, see their positive intention and address them proactively. Successful traders address frustrating losing positions by exiting them.” – Mike Melissinos

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Annual Trading Forecast on BP (2015)

BP stock (NYSE:BP) was generally bearish last year. The market made some commendable bullish attempts since the beginning of this year 2015. In early March 2015, the price dived seriously but this has been recovered. If I am thrown off by a horse, I will mount it again.

Now the price has crossed the EMA 21 to the upside, while the Williams’ % Range period 20 is also sloping upwards, going near the overbought region. The overbought region will soon be attained and by then, there would have been a stronger confirmation of a bullish outlook. The outlook this year is generally upbeat and the price may eventually reach the resistance levels at 44.00 and 46.00.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Am happy yet calm when positions go my way. I accept winners and winning streaks as part of the deal as much as losing is.” – Mike Melissinos

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Sunday, March 22, 2015

Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (March 23 – April 10, 2015)

USDJPY = Buy

AUDJPY = Buy

CADJPY = Buy

CHFJPY = Buy

EURJPY = Buy

GBPJPY = Buy

NZDJPY = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained.

Recent performances
December 2013 – December 2014 = 12.0%
January 2015 = 0.7%
February 2015 = 2.6%

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.





Daily analysis of major pairs for March 23, 2015

All eyes are on the EUR/USD, which has proven that the EUR is not ready to reach parity with the USD soon. On Wednesday, March 18, 2015, the market skyrocketed by over 450 pips, before being corrected lower. The perpetual bullish effort has already resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and thus, the resistance lines at 0.0900 and 0.1000 may be reached this week.  

EUR/USD: All eyes are on the EUR/USD, which has proven that the EUR is not ready to reach parity with the USD soon. On Wednesday, March 18, 2015, the market skyrocketed by over 450 pips, before being corrected lower. The perpetual bullish effort has already resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and thus, the resistance lines at 0.0900 and 0.1000 may be reached this week.  


USD/CHF:  Recently, and in the foreseeable future, what happens to the USD/CHF would be largely determined by the events affecting the EUR/USD, especially in a negatively correlated manner. The resistance levels at 0.9900 and 1.0000 are poised to frustrate the effort of the bulls, as the price mulls the attainment of the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600.

GBP/USD: The price actions on the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD are nearly similar, for both of them are positively correlated. The recent bearish outlook has been put in jeopardy and it is now in a precarious position. More buying pressure is expected on the Cable this week, and the distribution territories at 1.5050 and 1.5150 may eventually be overcome.

USD/JPY: This is now a bear market, but short trades should be sought with caution. While the demand levels at 119.50 and 119.00 could be tried, there is also a possibility that the price may go upwards towards the supply levels at 121.50 and 122.00.

EUR/JPY: There has been a perpetual bullish effort on this currency trading instrument, and this has posed a great threat to the extant bearish outlook. A movement above the supply zone at 140.00 would render the bearish outlook completely invalid. This trading instrument may rally this week.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 23 - 27, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Without events, there cannot be history. The even that happened last week shows that EUR may not reach parity with USD soon. In fact, it is no longer rational to seek short trades on this pair, for the outlook on it has already turned bullish. As it was mentioned in the past analyses, the great support line at 1.0500 did a good job in preventing further southward plunge in the market, and since then price has skyrocketed by more than 300 pips. The bullish spike on Wednesday, March 18, 2015, was the strongest – in which price shot upward by over 450 pips in a single day, and later got corrected downwards. The support lines at 1.0700 and 1.0600 should do a good job in frustrating the efforts of the bears while price could go further upwards gradually this week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish   
As it was expected, only a strong rally in EURUSD was able to bring about the reversal in USDCHF, and that is exactly what happened?   The former rallied, the latter dipped. The former got corrected lower, the latter bounced upward; and vice versa. There is now a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USDCHF, and price may reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600 this week.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
What happened here last week has posed a formidable challenge to the recent bearish bias. Cable was nearly replicating what EURUSD was doing; making price actions on the two markets look nearly similar. After all, both pairs are positively correlated. The expected movement on Cable this week should be favorable to the bulls, for the market would continue its upwards journey towards the distribution territories at 1.5050 and 1.5150. By then, the bias would have turned completely bullish.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish    
The incipient selling pressure on this currency trading instrument has made it become weak. Price can test the demand levels at 119.50 and 119.00, but it is unlikely that it would breach those demand levels to the downside because there is a high probability that this instrument may rally this week.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the bias on this cross is bearish, the bias has almost been rendered invalid. Last week, the general movement on this cross was bullish, enabling price to close above the demand zone at 129.50. The market can move upwards by more than 150 pips this week: an action that would be the final blow for the currently precarious bearish bias.    

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The search for low-risk trading ideas has always been the most important task for traders and investors. That hasn’t changed much. The main goal is to find situations where rewards exceed risks considerably.” – Gabriel Grammatidis







Thursday, March 19, 2015

The Travail of the Signals Provider

“No matter how great a setup looks, there’s always a chance you can still be wrong… Realize that knowing when not to trade is as important as knowing when to trade. I often
joke that we are more wait-ers than trade-ers.”

A signals provider is a trading professional who gives buy and sell recommendations to interested clients. This can be thru newsletters, email alerts, SMS, auto trading, social trading, etc. In most cases, stop loss levels, take profit  levels, exit dates, money management recommendations, and so on are included with the signals. While there are trading signals systems that lose money over time, there are also trading signals that win money over time. Unless doctored, historical performances of good signals systems have average winners that are bigger than average losers.

For a strategy to work, it must be followed as recommended. Unfortunately, many clients would either add irrelevant rules or do something else that is against the strategy, and they’ll still put blame on the signals provider. We tend to forget that signals providers aren’t gods.

One associate professor, who’s also a trading advisor, tells of his experience with clients. When the markets conditions are favorable, the clients will be happy and send him their good will. When the markets conditions aren’t favorable, they become sad and send him words of anxiety and hopelessness, plus questions. When the markets crash further, the clients call, email, and send in words of frustration, plus oaths.

Inexperienced traders that trade based on my recommendations hold me in high esteem whenever the strategy is making money. They may even become overconfident. They may add additional positions that are contrary to my recommendations and risk far too large portions of their portfolios, contrary to my suggestions. However, when the signals strategy is experiencing a losing streak – as it’s normal for all strategies under heaven – many people would think I’m stupid. They’d even wonder if I’m a professional as I claim. They unsubscribe from my services before the signals start making money again.

When new signals aren’t sent because the existing market situation precludes the entry criteria from being met, some clients initiate trades of their own. When they gains from such trades, they feel proud of themselves. When they lose money, they blame the signals provider who failed to send signals when they needed them. Such is the travail of the signals provider.

Good traders who follow positive expectancy religiously are sometimes referred to as wise fools. Good traders aren’t those who make money from the markets only; they’re those who can keep their hard-earned profits and survive terrible losing streaks.

This reminds me of when I was a private tutor (many years ago). Parents hired private tutors to teach their kids at home, with the hope that the teachers are magicians who can perform academic miracles on their kids. You see, there are many factors that contribute to academic failures of children. When a kid fails an exam in spite of the effort of a private tutor, the tutor would be the one to blame for the failure, even if she/he doesn’t deserve that. They don’t usually blame schools, school teachers, the kids, technology, environment, etc.

Something that sounds perfect in theory may fail in practice. A good strategy that sounds great when analyzed will experience occasional drawdowns. Our job is to lose as small as possible during losing streaks and move forwards during winning streaks.

Conclusion: For many years, I’ve been happily engaged in the markets. I’ve learned that the principles that lead to trading success are logical and simple, yet at the same time a priceless treasure. That’s why I appreciate sharing my convictions and wonderful secrets with others. Today I know that success in the market is attainable rather than elusive.

The quote at the beginning of this article is from Dave Landry. The quote below is also from him:

“With my methodology there will be extended periods where there is nothing to do. Trying to make something happen during these conditions because you need the money will create losses. Also, trends take time to develop.”



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Annual Trading Forecast on AIG (2015)

AIG – America International Group – shares (NYSE:AIG) is now ripe for bullish trend. All indication, including the price action, points to further northward journey. It is expected that the market would make higher lows and higher highs within the next several months.

For this analysis, we use 4 EMAs and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. All the EMAs are sloping upwards, while the price is above the EMA 10. Those who want to take new positions may want to do so when the price dips into the EMA 20 or the EMA 50.  The overall trend will remain bullish as long as the market stays above the EMA 200.

It would not be a surprise if AIG reaches the great resistance levels at 80.0 and 100.00 this year. To profit from this market, one would need patience to ride the trend for optimal returns. Like most good trading rules, they do not always bring rewards, but they will eventually bring rewards if you are faithful to them. But most people do not do this, and that is why some make money but find it difficult to keep it.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

 “Replace the fear of losing with a fear of not following the plan!” - Bob Robertson

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Annual Trading Forecast on Chevron (2015)

Chevron stock (NYSE:CVX) is currently a bear market and long trades are not recommended here. The dominant bias is bearish and rallies would offer nice opportunities to go short.

Last year, the market would go up – only to drop downwards steeply. While short-term bulls could harness some gains in this kind of market, some bulls are sometimes trapped on the wrong side. Looking at the chart, the price has broken down away from the Trendlines, going further south. At the same time, the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. The price can thus reach the demand levels at 100.00 and 99.00.

This cannot be emphasized enough: it is better to trade what you see in the charts and respect what the market is doing. By riding the trend, one can make huge profits from this price action. There are countless examples of few winning positions making up for many losing positions.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“No super indicator or crystal ball or occult powers decide whether your trading account is in the black or in the red at the end of the day. Over the medium and long term, it is your own discipline, a reliable broker, and above all risk and money management that determine success or failure in the markets.” – David Pieper

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals




Trading Signals for NZD Pairs (March 17 – April 10, 2015)

NZDUSD = Buy

NZDJPY = Buy

NZDCAD = Buy

NZDCHF = Buy

EURNZD = Sell

GBPNZD = Sell

AUDNZD = Sell

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained.

Recent performances
December 2013 – December 2014 = 12.0%
January 2015 = 0.7%
February 2015 = 2.6%

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Sunday, March 15, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for March 16, 2015

The Cable is a weak market right now. The market moved downwards by more than 300 pips last week, closing below the distribution territory 1.4750. The accumulation territories at 1.4700 and 1.4650 are now potential targets for the bears. While those accumulation territories may be tested, it is unlikely that the price would breach them to the downside this week.  

EUR/USD: This pair has been so weak to the point that long trades do not make sense at the moment. The possibility of the EUR reaching parity with the USD is now very high. If the CAD, the CHF and the AUD could reach parity with the USD, why can’t the EUR reach parity with it? The bulls and the bears are fighting a serious battle around the great support line at 1.0500, and should the support line be breached to the downside, we may see the price testing another support lines at 1.0400 and 1.0300. The outlook for the EUR/USD is bearish indeed.


USD/CHF: Since the EUR/USD is weak, the USD/CHF would continue its upward journey for as long as the EUR/USD is weak. The price is now between the support level at 1.0000 and the resistance level at 1.0100. A breach above the resistance level at 1.0100 is very likely.

GBP/USD:  The Cable is a weak market right now. The market moved downwards by more than 300 pips last week, closing below the distribution territory 1.4750. The accumulation territories at 1.4700 and 1.4650 are now potential targets for the bears. While those accumulation territories may be tested, it is unlikely that the price would breach them to the downside this week. 

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument is bullish in outlook – though there was no significant northward movement last week. On Friday, March 13, 2015, price closed at 121.39; on a bullish note. This week or next week, the probability of this instrument rallying is very high.

EUR/JPY: This is a bear market and it would continue to be weak as long as the EUR does not have any strength. Only an exponential stamina in the EUR could reverse the trend; or a strong weakness in the JPY itself.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group




Saturday, March 14, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 16 - 20, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market currently is one of the weakest among the majors, making lower highs and lower lows. The market proffers short opportunities with any short-term rallies that occur in it. The great support line at 1.0500 is being battered heavily by furious bears, and it may be breached to the downside, while price goes towards the support lines at 1.0400 and 1.0300. There is no big deal in EUR reaching parity with USD. If CAD, CHF and AUD could reach parity with USD, then why not EUR? Unless the resistance lines at 1.0700 and 1.0800 are overcome, the outlook this week is bearish.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish    
The outlook on this pair is bullish – as long as EURUSD is weak. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, since price stays above the psychological support level at 1.0000. There is another important support level at 0.9900, and as long as price stays above these two important support levels, short trades would be irrational. The targets for buyers this week are located at 1.0150 and 1.0200.   

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week, Cable dipped by over 300 pips, testing the accumulation territories at 1.4750 and 1.4700. Further bearish run is possible, which may make the market reach another accumulation territory at 1.4600. However, there could be a probable rally before the end of this week, which could be significant enough to jeopardize the existing bearish bias, especially in the near-term.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish    
In spite of insignificant movement on this currency instrument, especially in recent times, the trend is still bullish. It is expected that there could an increase momentum in the market before the end of this week or early next week, which would favor bulls. Most JPY pairs could also experience the same upward movement within the stipulated period. USDJPY could thus reach the supply levels at 122.00 and 123.00.   

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Owing to the great weakness in the EUR, this cross also dropped further downwards last week. On Friday, March 13, 2015, price closed at 127.43, in the context of a downtrend. While the demand zones at 127.00 and 126.00 could be tried, there is also a rational possibility that the cross would rally before the end of this week.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

I integrate trading as a part of my life. Trading doesn’t stress me out, so I don’t medicate the stress in any way. Trading actually promotes my health. It satisfies certain feelings in me that other activities do not.” – Mike Melissinos





Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Toby Crabel: A Famous Contrarian Trader

LEARN FROM THE GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 62

“When it comes to playing the markets. After all, it’s all about making money, not about being right.”  – J. C. Parets

Toby Crabel is an American trader who’s made himself successful by his own efforts. He studied finance at the University of Central Florida. He got his feet wet in the markets while still a student. He was even a professional tennis players for a few years.

Toby has written many articles about short-term patterns in trading. In 1992, he worked as a trader for Victor Niederhoffer in New York. After leaving Niederhoffer he continued other series of speculative activities. In 1998, he began to run his own funds from his residence, and he’s been making decent profits since then.  The Financial Times has referred to him as "the most well-known trader on the counter-trend side."

His firm, Crabel Capital Management, LLC, has been ranked among the big funds with nice profits.  His website is:  Crabel.com. According to the website, Crabel Capital Management is a global alternative investment firm specializing in futures and foreign currency trading. Pioneers of short-term, systematic trading, the firm has evolved over the last two decades to offer broadly diversified, unique products that are valuable complements to sophisticated portfolio design. Crabel Capital Management has delivered over 20 years of uncorrelated returns to its worldwide customer-base. For example, the firm made a profit of 16.7 per cent in the year 2005. The assets under management are about $3,200,000,000, and there are many employees working at the firm.

In the year 1990, he wrote a helpful book titled “Day Trading with Short-term Price Patterns.”

Lessons
These are some lessons that can be learned from Toby Crabel:

  1. Toby is referred to as a self-made millionaire, meaning that he didn’t inherit millions, but he made millions for himself. In fact, he’s a multi-millionaire. You can make yourself successful by your own efforts as a trader. You can work your own miracle of financial freedom, tapping from the riches the markets offer all of us.

  1. He’s a living testimony that it’s possible to make consistent profits from the markets. For many years, he’s made profits on annual basis. It’s cleanly possible not have a red year as a trader, and therefore it’s imperative that you find a way to achieve the goal of attaining green years successively. I admit that some years will have more profits than others, like making 35 per cent last year and only 11 per cent this year. Like making 5% last year and making 23% this year, but a red year can be avoided. If you haven’t achieved this goal, then you’ve a job to do. Toby Crabel is a human being like you.

  1. Please see the quote at the end of this article. Risk is best controlled by taking a large number of small trades versus making a few large bets on a small number of trades.”

  1. Trend following works, and so do contrarian trading systems (especially the ones with good expectancy). There are no everlasting trends in the markets, which means there’ll always be turning points. These turning points tend to surprise many people while bringing satisfactory rewards to those who correctly anticipate the turning points and capitalize on them. Some turning points may be temporary pullbacks which would be strong while they last and some pullbacks may portend the beginning of new protracted biases. The best mix is to know when to follow the trend and when to go against it.

Conclusion: It’s very interesting when one knows how to trade deceptive price movement. Since price sometimes moves very furiously against the majority and nets some contrarian traders huge gains. The reason for occasional contrarian moves is clear, for many who’ve gone long because of a transient rally have quickly smoothed their positions and they’re entering the market again as a result of a sharp dip in price. The recalcitrant bulls who stubbornly stick to their positions are either getting stopped out or are being forced to close their portfolios; otherwise they’d suffer more devastating damage. When a deceptive bullish movement becomes a snare to the unwary traders, the trader sells in a hurry and thus causes further dip in the market.

This piece is ended by a quote taken from Crabel website (Crabel.com):

“Our core trading philosophy is that strategies should capture enduring and explainable market participant behavior… We also think that risk is best controlled by taking a large number of small trades versus making a few large bets on a small number of trades.




Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Monday, March 9, 2015

Annual Trading Forecast on Alibaba (2015)

Ali Baba stock (NYSE:BABA) tried to go upwards in the year 2014, but it later broke downwards and assumed a long-term bearish bias. Up till now, the bias is bearish and this is supposed to continue.

In the chart, the ADX period 14 is at the level 40, showing the strength of the current bias. The DM- is above the DM+, meaning that the bears are in control. The MACD default parameters, has its signals line below the zero line (though its histogram is currently located above the zero line, due to some noticeable bullish effort). With further selling pressure, the histogram may later appear below the zero line and this would lead to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.

Those who think the stock could rise may be caught by surprise any moment from now. The public tend to favor the contrary side of the trend and therefore, are always caught on the contrary side. Being caught on the contrary side is common and that is what some called “surprise moves.” Proud speculators feel too wise to speculate logically and they sustain large negativity as a result of this.

Eventually, Ali Baba stock may test the support levels at 60.00 and 70.00 this year.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Cutting winners goes against nature. It doesn’t work for lions and it doesn’t work for traders. Lions track, kill and eat the entire prey. They don’t take a bite and leave. After they kill it, they protect it and stay with it until there is nothing left to eat. I do the same thing with trends – I follow them until the end.” - Mike Melissinos (Source: TRADERS’ February/March 2015; page 82)

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Annual Trading Forecast on Standard Chartered (2015)

Standard Chartered Bank shares (LSE:STAN) have the possibility of going upwards this year. The market was under pressure last year, consolidating towards the end of that year and in the beginning of this year.

Now, the market has broken upwards as it is ready to journey northward. The price is above the EMA 21 and the RSI period 14 is gallivanting around the overbought territory. Clearly it is not advisable to go short in this market, for this may be the beginning of a long-term bullish movement. The price may end up reaching the resistance levels at 1300 and 1500 this year.

However, some speculators may be reluctant to take advantage of this idea. As Jeff Bezos puts it, ideas are easy. It is execution that is hard.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

The hard part about trend-following, and success in general, I believe, is not creating a system but following the obvious one that works.” – Mike Melissinos

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Sunday, March 8, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for March 9, 2015

The EUR/JPY dropped by over 350 pips last week, resulting in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. One reason for this is the weakness in the EUR. Unless the EUR gains some stamina, this cross will continue to drop further south, reaching the demand zones at 130.00 and 129.50. 

EUR/USD: This pair has experienced one of its strongest weaknesses in several weeks. The market broke though one support line after another (the support lines then became the resistance lines). While further southward dip is expected, there is a strong support line at 1.0500, which could act as a check to the bears’ frenzy. Unless the EUR is fated to reach parity with the USD, this pair is not expected to drop below the aforementioned support line.


USD/CHF: Yes, this market would keep going up as long as the EURUSD is weak. The price is currently trading above the support level at 0.9850. The next targets for this week are located at the resistance levels at 0.9900 and 0.9950.

GBP/USD:  The Cable plummeted by over 350 pips, going below the distribution territory at 1.5050. The accumulation territories at 1.5000 and 1.4950 are now vulnerable to bearish attacks. The outlook on the Cable this week is bearish.

USD/JPY:  This currency trading instrument has succeeded in going upwards. The dominance bias on the market is bullish and there is a possibility that it would continue its upward journey. The potential targets for the bulls are now at the supply levels at 121.50 and 122.00.

EUR/JPY:  The EUR/JPY dropped by over 350 pips last week, resulting in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. One reason for this is the weakness in the EUR. Unless the EUR gains some stamina, this cross will continue to drop further south, reaching the demand zones at 130.00 and 129.50. 

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



Saturday, March 7, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 9 - 13, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The bullish expectation on EURUSD has not materialized, for price dropped by over 300 pips. Indeed, last week saw the weakest movement on EURUSD since February 2015. Price has closed below the resistance line at 1.0850 and it could even reach the support lines at 1.0800 and 1.0700. Unless EUR is fated to reach parity with USD, the worst case-scenario on this market should not take it below the great support line at 1.0500. This week, bulls may make some effort to halt or reverse the current bearish trend.          

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish    
This currency trading instrument moved upward by over 300 pips last week, owing to the weakness in CHF and the strength in USD. Price was able to move above the resistance level at 0.9850 and stays there, threatening to go towards the resistance level at 0.9900. Even the resistance level at 0.9950 is not safe from bullish attacks, because the bulls still have lots of energy left in them. The only thing that can change the course of the battle is an exponential stamina in EURUSD.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
GBPUSD, which is positively correlated with EURUSD, also fell southward last week, going below the distribution territory at 1.5050. A movement of 380 pips in one week is not something to be ignored, since this has resulted in a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. While the bearish movement is according to expectation, there may be some rally this week. The accumulation territories at 1.5000 and 1.4950 are being watched, and the distribution territories at 1.5100 and 1.5200 may be potential targets in case of a rally in this week.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish    
As it was forecasted, this pair broke upwards, following the recent consolidating movement in the market. The price moved upwards from the demand level at 119.50, slashing through the supply level at 121.00, but failing to close above it. As long as Greenback holds onto its bullishness, the bias on this pair is bullish. The current price action and candlestick formations on 4-hour chart all point to further northward journey.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, which moved strongly towards the price zone around 131.00. This movement is contrary to the expectation, and therefore, long trades are currently not considered here. We should no longer expect any meaningful rally on this cross unless EUR gains a considerable amount of stamina. Then, we would want some confirmation of a trend reversal before long positions are sought.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

 “I have found that when my primary goal is to trade well, I regularly experience moments of flow. I have also found that when my primary goal is to simply trade well, my results are better as a consequence.” – Dr. Ken Long





Thursday, March 5, 2015

Annual Trading Forecast on Amazon (2015)

Amazon shares (NASDAQ:AMZN) is currently racing north, and this is a bias that should continue this year. The bullish strength began in January and became particularly stronger at the end of January 2015. Since February, the price has gone further north and it is now consolidating.

The consolidation is a normal reduction in the momentum of the market and when momentum does increase again, the price is expected to continue going upwards. In the chart, 4 EMAs are used for this analysis and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart.

All the EMAs are sloping upwards, affirming the validity of the existing bullish trend. The price would continue its northward journey either in a slow and gradual manner or in a fast and furious manner. One may buy occasional bearish retracements into the EMAs 10 and/or 20. Until the EMA 200 is breached to the downside, this remains a bull market.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Annual Trading Forecast on Intrexon Corporation (2015)

Intrexon Corporation stock (NYSE:XON) is a strong market and the strength is expected to continue for most of this year. The price was bullish for most part of the last year – an action that has continued till now.

Intrexon Corp stock has broken out of the upper Trandline, showcasing a bullish determination. At the same time, the RSI period 14 is above the level 70. This is very strong bullish market; and though some transitory pullbacks should be expected along the way, the pullbacks would be nice opportunities to buy long. The price may eventually reach the supply levels at 60.00 and 70.00.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Wednesday, March 4, 2015

When a Good Strategy Is Losing Money - Part 2

“When I was 20 to 25 years younger, every move in the markets would make me excited. By the mid-90s, I got my emotions under control. I learned to focus on eliminating risk on the front end, so that I would have fewer problems on the back end.” – David J. Merkel

Mr. Liam* was attracted to a trading strategy software as it was being pitched. The 2-year historical results were amazing, as shown by the vendor of the software. The results showed a historical hit rate of 70%, but the software was very expensive. In order to purchase the software, Mr. Liam had to pay in 4 installments. After that, he was able to get the software.

However, Liam lost money with the strategy, and he got the vendor arrested.

Because Liam was a good reader – reading many trading article and magazines – he discovered that there were successful traders. Since he was inspired by testimonies from super traders, he continued working to improve his knowledge.

When he attained some level of competence, he put the strategy to test again and saw that the strategy was wonderful. He realized that he himself, not that strategy, was responsible for his loss. He felt sorry for the strategy vendor, and as a result of that, he visited the vendor and tendered his heartfelt apology. He even gave the vendor a cash gift of $1000.

A great strategy can’t work for a suicide trader.

The Power of Choice
Anyone who says she/he can never lose is an accomplished fabricator. Anyone who says their strategy doesn’t lose is also a distinguished fabricator. Losses are a blessing in disguise because they’re the secrets that help us become better traders. When you lose money with a good strategy, after being faithful to it, it’s up to you to decide whether to quit or continue. 

There was a legendary trader who made and lost fortunes in the markets. We got much to learn from such a great trader, so that we know what’s behind his success and imitate him. We also want to know the cause of his failure so that we can avoid that in our trading. The truth about trading is timeless and it will forever be. Humans drive the markets, and as such, various human emotions are reflected in price actions. When things go wrong, we want to make sure that the effects on our portfolios are minimal.

Successful traders lost in the past. Yet, they continued until they reached a stage where they start making money effortlessly. When they were losing, some people tried to discourage them, thinking they’d their best interest in heart. If you allowed yourself to be discouraged because of the current fleeting losing streak, in future, you’ll only be green with envy when you hear how much successful traders are being paid.

Super stars, celebrities, politicians, athletes, etc.; have always faced ignominious defeats now and then in their careers. Greatest role models accepted defeats in the past, but they moved on. Greatest role models accept defeats today, and they move on. Their transitory failures were the secrets of the enviable breakthroughs they enjoyed later.

Check the stories of very great people in various walks of life, past and present. You’ll understand what I’m talking about.

Super traders today refused to be discouraged when things were tough, when their friends and folks were asking them to try another “safe” ways to earn livelihood. The other “safe” alternatives that many members of the public prefer to trading are the major reason why more and more members of the public are getting poorer and poorer. Those who allowed themselves to be discouraged paid a heavy price for their short-sightedness.

The Inevitable Experiences
It’s easy to criticize others while we’re being blinded to our imperfection. Everyone thinks they’re right, until the markets prove them wrong. We’ll do ourselves great favor by focusing on our own weaknesses and working on them: instead of focusing on other people’s weaknesses.

All traders will experience negativity. You can continue to experience negativity, irrespective of what you do, until you start asking what’s really wrong with your life. At this stage, you’ll doubt your possibility of becoming a profitable market speculator. Yes, all traders experience negativity, and sadly, that’s the stage where most others quit. No wonder then that few people can share testimonies to the possibility of everlasting success in the markets.

Very few traders move beyond the stage where they lose, no matter what they do. Indeed, very few people will rise up and continuing struggling again, after they’ve been floored by the markets.  You must master yourself before you master the markets. Bad trading results are an evidence of personality flaws in you and good trading results are evidence that you’ve controlled those flaws.

The few people who rise up to struggle again will inevitably reach a stage when they start making money effortlessly and consistently. These are the people that the public call “market wizards,” “super traders,” “pros,” “expert speculators,” “gurus,” “witches,” “mad geniuses,” etc. The public think something is special about them, but these people know that there’s nothing special about them.  They’re consistently profitable because of their many years of experiences, plus their winning speculation principles have been practiced again and again until they become their second nature. You think they’re smarter, more brilliant, more fortunate, more intelligent, and more innovative. Nevertheless, they think they’re not better than you. What makes the difference is that they decided to continue fighting for success at the stage that most others quit.

We’re given the power of choice to use for future glory or future regret. Even if we’ve challenges in the markets, why can’t we seek help from professional traders and coaches? If you got a persistent toothache, you go to a dentist. Then why not seek help from a trading professional when you’ve a challenge?

The quote below ends this article:

“You also need to be able to trade a setup even when it is profitable. By that I mean that you need to stick to it throughout all the ups and downs. After all, it takes several tries with some setups for the trade to work. Until it does, you must be able to continue trading with confidence.” – Ruediger Born

*His name has been changed.




Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (March 4 - 23, 2015)

USDJPY = Buy

AUDJPY = Buy

CADJPY = Buy

CHFJPY = Buy

EURJPY = Buy

GBPJPY = Buy

NZDJPY = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained.

Recent performances
December 2013 – December 2014 = 12.0%
January 2015 = 0.7%

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals
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