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Saturday, October 31, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (November 2 - 6, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair first moved sideways in the first few days of last week, and then price broke down again on October 28, reaching the support line at 1.0900. From that support line, price has bounced upwards a bit, testing the resistance line at 1.1050. The bias on this pair remains bearish and further downwards movement is possible in the month of November, principally because the outlook on USD is bright for the month.     

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF went upwards smoothly last week, reaching the resistance level at 0.9950. However, bulls have been unable to push price above that resistance level, as price eased by almost 100 pips, testing the support level at 0.9850. USDCHF should continue its upwards journey this month, possibly reaching the great psychological level at 1.0000, which means USD could probably reach parity with CHF this month, given the bullish expectation on USD for this month.       

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
GBP shall undergo strong and fast movements this month as bulls and bears struggle for supremacy, which would also be visible on GBP pairs. Price tested the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and then spiked upwards on Friday. In spite of the upwards spike, the bias is bearish. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.5500 could end the current bearish bias, and until that happens, long trades are not recommended.      

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish    
USDJPY did not make any serious directional movement last week, since there were transitory upswings and downswings in the market. Should this kind of price action continue throughout this week, the market could enter another equilibrium phase. Nonetheless, the bullish bias is supposed to continue this month (certain JPY pairs would make attempts to rally in November, except AUDJPY and NZDJPY, because the outlook on AUD and NZD is strongly bearish for the month of November).
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument cannot make any significant bullish movement as long as Euro is very weak. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market: Long trades would be illogical unless the supply zone at 134.00 is overcome. Until that happens, rallies could be taken as short-selling opportunities. In case Yen becomes weaker than Euro, a meaningful reversal would be witnessed. Euro itself would make effort to rally against some currencies in this month, save Greenback.


This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Fortunately, the positive expectations of full time trading prove to be true. Every day is exciting and the world of trading never bores. There is always a lot going on in the financial markets and there is plenty to discover.” - Christiaan van der Meer




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html




Thursday, October 29, 2015

Forex Trading Versus Binary Options: Which One Is Better? (Part 2)

BINARY OPTIONS MYTHS VERSUS REALITIES

“To be successful, you must keep in mind that the only way you can continue to operate is
to protect your account from a major setback or, worse, devastation. Avoiding large losses is the single most important factor for winning big as a speculator. You cannot control how much a stock rises, but in most cases, whether you take a small loss or a big loss is entirely your choice. There is one thing we can guarantee: if you cannot learn to accept small losses, sooner or later you will take big losses. It is inevitable.” – Mark Minervini (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com)

This is just to debunk myths surrounding binary options (also called fixed odds), opening our eyes to facts. 


Arguments in Favor of Binary Options
Because of its plausible simplicity, many people are attracted to binary options, thinking that Forex requires a bit of getting used to. In fact, many so-called binary options experts have documented some logical arguments in favor of binary options, and to some extent they’re partially correct.

Did you think binary options (BO) have some advantages over Forex? OK, let’s examine a few advantages the experts claim BO has and see whether the advantages aren’t in Forex.

Myth 1
BO is based on time and FX is based on price. Most FX traders overlook time factor in their trading while BO traders are time-conscious.

Reality
The market doesn’t care whether you trade it based on price or time. You may enter with a specific timeframe or a specific price in mind, but that doesn’t guarantee anything. It’ll do what it’ll do without having you in mind, and this can be in your favor or against you, whether you trade BO or FX. You timing may be wrong immediately or later or never. You timing may be correct immediately or later or never. This has little role to play in your success.

Myth 2
BO traders are forced to exit a position in a given timeframe either with win or loss. Since they’re forced to do this, they’ve an advantage over FX traders who can refuse to exit a position with win or loss because of greed and fear.

Reality
Yes novice FX traders can hold onto losing positions and abort winners, which is a bad trading approach. But disciplined traders cut their losses and give their winners some leeway. Being forced to exit at a given time doesn’t make you the richest trader; otherwise, automated systems would be second to none. Being forced to exit always at predetermined levels can’t help if your trading approach is bad and the market has an inherent negative expectancy. The discipline you enforce on yourself is much more satisfying than the discipline someone imposes on you.

BO traders suffer the disadvantage of being forced out against their will, though the most important issue is profitability, which still eludes many in spite of being forced out at expiry periods. In FX, we’re comfortable exiting at our convenient time. We may continue running a profit in order to maximize it. From March 3 – 11, 2015, I’d have gained about 500 pips in case I went long on USDCHF and I let my profit run.

Myth 3
BO helps reduce emotions because risk and reward plus expiry are all fixed and predetermined.

Reality
All traders in all financial markets aren’t immune to emotions, so BO is no exception. Permanent success in trading includes a measure of managerial control of our positions. This isn’t possible in BO, for you remain helpless once a position is open, waiting for expiry.

Considering the myths and realities above, I’d like to chip in some fallacies some BO traders carry in their heads and the facts about the fallacies.


Higher Accuracy Fallacy
According to one source, BO by its nature requires a greater than win rate as each bet is factored 70% - 90% gain against 100% loss. So this means that you need to achieve as a BO trader a win rate above 50% on average 54% - 58% to just break even.

The fact is that in the long run no one can achieve more than 50% accuracy. 80%, 90%, 75% etc. hit rates are false in the end. They might be true in the hindsight, but not in live markets. Even scalpers who risk 500 USD to gain 2 USD per trade in FX trading would seem to have high hit rates, but this would drop significantly when the hit rates are reduced.

It is fallacious to think there are computer, automated, custom, alien, astronomical, spiritual, mental, discretionary, fundamental, manual, etc. strategies that enable us to get a hit rate which is higher than 50% in future. Marketers and novice traders would tell us so, but many people have lost money with systems that are promised to carry very high accuracy because the next moment (the future) can’t be predicted. Something that sounds great in theory can fail in practice and what looks like a perfect plan can be overturned by a factor beyond our control.

BO traders are often fooled into believing they can achieve a hit rate of 70% or more permanently. You might as well do that with a toss of a coin endlessly. No matter how good or how complicated your strategy or indicator is, you’re guaranteed only 50% hit rate or less in the long run. When tossing a coin endlessly, the share between heads and tails will balance off at 50/50.

Albeit, there can be times when heads will be hit more than tails within several weeks or months (or even years). You get heads 10 times, and tails 2 times. Then heads another 8 times and tails 3 times. Then heads 9 times and tails 4 times. This would give you a false impression that you’ve a trading approach with a high accuracy, without you being aware that it’s winning streaks that cause that.  On a long-term basis, things would turn the other way and you get leveled at 50% because tails would begin to be hit more than heads (like getting tails 9 times and heads 2 times).

The only way to survive is to make more money in winning periods than you lose in losing periods. Does BO allow this?
                                                  

Money Management Fallacy
Money management is very important in trading any financial markets, and so BO traders claim they can get ahead with good money management methods. The issue is this: can a good money management method help you in a game in which your risks will always be higher than your rewards? How can you survive in a game in which you’ll be paid only 70 or 80 USD for each 100 USD your risk?

If you win you gain 80 USD, but if you lose, you forfeit 100 USD. Does that appeal to you? What money management can you use?

It doesn’t matter whether you risk 1% or 0.5% or 2% per trade – you simply gain less than you stake no matter what you do. Money management makes sense only when your losses are smaller than your gains, not the other way round.

Let’s say you get paid 90 USD for each 100 USD (because this is the highest the most generous broker can give you) and you place 100 trades in a year. 

Let’s use 100 trials with 90% payout ratio (most brokers pay only 50% - 80% of the capital risked). Let’s say you’ve a capital of about 10,000; assuming the money management is 1% per trade. 100 x 100 = 10,000.

You win 50%
90 USD X 50 = 4,500 USD

You lose 50%
-100 USD X 50 = -5,000 USD

Is this ever logical or rational?

In FX, we can risk 50 USD per trade to gain 200 USD. With this, we can lose 75% of our trades and still make money.

-50 USD X 75 = -3,750 USD (loss)

200 USD X 25 = 5,000 USD (win)

Doesn’t this make sense to you?



The Gambler’s fallacy
The only way to enjoy longer term success in BO is to use Martingale position sizing methods, which make you double your next stake to cover the previous loss (and this doesn’t present any huge edge in itself). Please search for information on the Internet in order to know what Martingale is and how it works.

Martingale isn’t ideal for most traders because they don’t have enough money. This is a serious problem. Too many traders open accounts with too small funds, and under such circumstances, good money management can’t be practiced.

Unfortunately, those who’ve big accounts either don’t understand concepts of excellent position sizing or fail to respect the concepts.

This leads us to the Gambler’s fallacy. When you’re in a losing streak, you think your chances of winning improve with next positions, since your previous ones are losses. You think the winners are around the corner. Doubling your stakes with each loss increases your negativity and depletes your account quickly.

Maybe after 4 losing trades, which cost you 2,000 USD, you double your stake to 4,000 USD. You could have the 5th straight loss because you’re still in a losing streak.

Even if you wait for 4 losses in a row before risking 20% of your account to recover the recent losses, you still face a gambler’s problem because your next trade could be a loss, and this has nothing to do with what happened to you in the past.


The Grass Is Always Greener on the Other Side of the Fence
Some hate transport business and some love it. The risks in transport business (accidents, failures, low patronage, losses, problems with authorities, etc.) don’t deter some people from doing it because of its rewards. Some who fail at agriculture think sports is better. Some who fail at politics now want to try publishing, whereas publishing has its own challenges. Some who’ve been disillusioned with salaried jobs now want to try music industry; whereas it isn’t easy to be a celebrity or a promoter. Some who started their business has also seen that remaining profitable isn’t easy. Certain people don’t want to do anything with trading until they’re financially down, having exhausted all other alternatives. Is that the right time to become a trader?

Those who don’t make money with CFD believe spread betting is better. Those who hate shares markets consider futures markets. Those who have problems with FX think BO is better.

What do you want to do with your life? What do you want to do for a living? What can you do to put food on your table (or to feed your kids, if you’re a parent)? Life’s short: only 70 – 90 years, and some don’t even reach that age bracket. A short life is meaningful if one’s financially free and is fulfilled.


Caveat
I didn’t mean to anger BO traders. BO is good and it offers nice potentials, but people are also blinded to its pitfalls and inherent disadvantages.  A business that always makes profits that are bigger than expenses will sometimes go thru turbulent times, how much more a business that makes profits that are always smaller than expenses! 

If I made a business proposal to you, telling you that your income/profits from the business would be primarily, permanently less than your expenses and other costs of running the business, would you agree to the business proposal? Does that kind of business sound rational to you? Sadly, this is the permanent reality of BO.

It doesn’t make sense to run a business in which the costs will always be bigger than income.
I’ll trade BO only when brokers start giving us the possibility of getting reward that is bigger than risk per trade. However, I sense that this may put them at a demerit.

Conclusion: The most exciting thing about market is its unpredictability. The unpredictability of our trading career isn’t always thrilling, however. We devise and strategize. We make trading plans, projections and proposals about what we’d like to see happen to our portfolios, but often they’re little more than our best guesses. We’ve no idea what a day, a week, a month or even a year might bring.

“Why don’t you just play around with the idea that you can be wrong and still be successful. Being right or wrong is a meaningless invention of your mind. Instead, what if you just developed a good system and practiced following it? A loss has nothing to do with being wrong. Instead, a loss has everything to do with following your system and not making a mistake…. So what if you just accepted losses when you got them, allowing them to be small losses and let your profits run when you have a good trade? Don’t you think that might be a good idea?” – Dr. Van K. Tharp (Source: Vantharp.com) 



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Sirius Petroleum Would Spike Upwards Soon

Sirius Petroleum stock (LSE:SRSP) would soon spike upwards, though it cannot be said exactly when that would happen. The price would soon find a floor somewhere around the support levels at 0.20 and 0.25; and then spike upwards/rally massively.

The price has been testing the lower Trendline – it could even go below it. Likewise, the RSI period 14 is below the level 50, which means that the current bearish outlook is especially strong. The stock may go further downwards, but the more the price moves downwards, the more the possibility of an upwards spike.

Yes, a rally or a serious upwards spike, which might later lead to a strong rally, would happen on Sirius Petroleum very soon.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Don’t Buy Lonmin Shares!

Lonmin shares (LSE:LMI) are supposed to continue going further and further south, given the current price action and the dominant bias in the market. What is happening right now is a good opportunity to go short again.

4 EMAs are used for this analysis and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. It can be seen that all the EMAs are sloping downwards, with a clear Death Cross, denoting that the bearish outlook on the market is very strong. This is a type of the market in which adamant bulls are punished.

Recently, the price made a shallow rally attempt, trying to cross the EMAs 10, 20, and 50 to the upside. The rally attempt was halted, making the price to come down again. This is a bearish signal: The price could attain the demand levels at 20.00 and 15.00 within the next several months.

Unless the EMA 200 is breached to the upside, the bearish bias would be valid, plus long trades would not make any sense.


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Sunday, October 25, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for October 26, 2015

The USD/JPY trended upwards nicely last week, thus ending the recent protracted equilibrium phase in the market. Since October 15, 2015, the price has moved upwards by roughly 350 pips, almost reaching the supply level at 121.50. Further northward movement is anticipated this week, which may enable the price to reach the resistance levels at 122.00 and 122.50.   

EUR/USD:  The EUR/USD is now in a strong bearish mode – having fallen by 350 pips last week. The bias is now bearish and the price is supposed to go further south this week. But the price needs to break the psychological support line at 1.1000 to the downside. While this might look like a hard job for the bears, it is attainable.


USD/CHF: The movement on the USD/CHF is largely dictated by the movement on the EUR/USD; and therefore, the strength in the former was transferred indirectly by the weakness in the latter. From the support level at 0.9500, the price moved upwards by 300 pips, now very close to the resistance level at 0.9800. In case the price goes above that resistance level (which is very much likely), the next target for the bulls would be another resistance level at 0.9900. 

GBP/USD:  The Cable was unable to make any meaningful rally last week because the bulls met a stubborn impediment at the distribution territory at 1.5500. In fact, the price simply went down last week, leading to a “sell” signal in the market. The price needs to go further down so that the “sell” signal could be valid. The Cable might be under selling pressure as long as the EUR/USD itself is weak. They are both positively correlated.  

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY trended upwards nicely last week, thus ending the recent protracted equilibrium phase in the market. Since October 15, 2015, the price has moved upwards by roughly 350 pips, almost reaching the supply level at 121.50. Further northward movement is anticipated this week, which may enable the price to reach the resistance levels at 122.00 and 122.50.  

EUR/JPY: Due to the sudden weakness in the EUR, the EUR/JPY cross also fell rapidly in the last few days of last week. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would most probably continue as long as the EUR is weak. The only factor that can reverse this is a situation is which the YEN becomes weaker than the EUR.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html 


Saturday, October 24, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 26 - 30, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair traded in a tight range from Monday to Wednesday and then broke out southwards on Thursday. The southward break was strong enough to cause a new bearish outlook on EURUSD (plus most other EUR pairs), which would continue for the rest of this month.   Last week, price fell 350 pips, testing the support line at 1.1000. That support line is a psychological level – a breach of it to the downside would result in further southward movement.    

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
In most cases, the movement on USDCHF is largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. As long at the latter had stamina in it, the former was under bearish pressure. As soon as EURUSD broke down, USDCHF skyrocketed, rising from the support level at 0.9500; with price almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9800. This is a movement of roughly 300 pips, and it has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further upward journey is expected this week: The resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900 are potential targets.    

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish   
There is a bearish signal on GBPUSD, owing to its inability to trend upwards.  All previous northward attempts were foiled at the distribution territory of 1.5500, which is now a major barrier to the bulls. The bias on this market can never be bullish as long as price is under the distribution territory at 1.5500. In the last few trading days, price made a bearish move, now very close to the accumulation territory at 1.5300. Unless the distribution territory at 1.5500 is breached to the upside, short positions are recommended.     

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish    
As it was mentioned in the last week forecast, there has been an end to the recent equilibrium phase on USDJPY, which lasted for several weeks. One of the conditions for the end of the equilibrium phase has been met: A close above the demand level at 121.00. The current bullish journey began on October 15, but it was not counted as been significant until price closed above the demand level at 121.00, almost testing the supply level at 121.50. USDJPY now looks sexy (attractive) to swing and position traders. Price should continue its bullish journey for the rest of the month (even beyond October 2015).
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross initially made a faint bullish movement in the first few days of last week, as price moved above the supply zone at 136.00. However, the sudden loss of stamina in EUR caused the cross to tumble. The cross dived smoothly, reaching the demand zone at 133.50. The cross would find it difficult to rally when EUR remains very week, unless JPY itself becomes weaker than EUR. There is still some hope of JPY pairs strengthening before the end of this month.       

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Sit down, observe the markets and go trading!”  – Marko Graenitz


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html



Friday, October 23, 2015

Whitney Tilson: Making Profits Effortlessly

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 15

“If you like reading biographies on successful people like I do, you’ll notice that they all share one driving force. That force drove each of them forward to overcome the obstacles that threatened to stop them in their tracks.” – Louise Bedford

Name: Whitney Tilson
Year of birth: 1966
Nationality: American
Occupation: Value investor, author and philanthropist

Career
Whitney Tilson spent his childhood in Nicaragua, Tanzania; and finally Kenya, where his parents have retired. He went to Bing Nursery School, Northfield Mt. Hermon School, and Harvard College. In 1994, he also earned an MBA with excellence from Harvard Business School. He was among the top 5% of his class.

Since his parents were both great educators, it’s no wonder that their child did well at school.

In the year 2004, he started Value Investing Congress with John Schwartz. Being highly influenced by great investors, he’s co-authored some books like “The Art of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market (2013)” and “More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times (2009).” He’s been given copious recognition like one of 20 rising stars in the year 2007 by Institutional Investor, one of 5 investors in 2006 Power 30, by SmartMoney Magazine, etc.

Although he likes to buy very cheap, he sometimes sell short with a measure of conviction. Like every professional, Whitney isn’t always right. During Google IPO in 2004, he warned against the frenzied buying of the stock. Nevertheless, the stock made huge gains in the following years. 

Whitney is involved in various educational, philanthropic and political causes, activities and reforms. He lives in New York, USA.

Insights
  1. Great investors aren’t always right. Sometimes they do well and sometimes they don’t. However, when they aren’t right, they just make sure the losses aren’t too much. Whitney went through a tough time in the years 2011 and 2012, but he was able to rebuild gradually and the last few years were good.

  1. Because he’s familiar with extreme poverty conditions in Nicaragua, Tanzania, Kenya, Whitney is grateful for the fortune he enjoys. He’s a greater appreciation for the incredible good fortune he’s had in his life. What a good example from Whitney! Developed countries are full of ungrateful souls who complain about flimsy and ridiculous things You might deprecate your inability to get shoes until you see someone without legs. No matter your condition, there are others who’re worse off than you. You should be thankful for what you’ve, no matter what you don’t have.

  1. Sometimes, one can make money by following a reputable analyst’s recommendation. When a market is overextended in a bearish territory owing to dismal fundamental data, it may pose a tempting offer for speculators. The best stock or trading instrument may sometimes become hopelessly weak and that’s a great opportunity to buy.

  1. “The witches and wizards in my father’s household have succeeded in preventing me from succeeding in Forex,” one ignorant trader lamented. But the fact is that we make our decisions and are responsible for them. We needn’t blamed others for our bad trades.  Good trades aren’t a result of our wisdom, prescience, and skill; neither are bad trades a result of ill-luck. Just know the reason why your trades go bad, otherwise you learn very little. 

  1. The only source of knowledge is experience. Though it’s great to look for ways to improve one’s timing, it’s more rational to respond smartly when timing isn’t so perfect

  1. A good trader needs to cultivate independent thinking sometimes - that’s a necessity. For example, risk control would seem like fun because we’ll be able to sleep well, knowing full well that our risk is under control.

  1. According to Whitney, the learning process for investors can often be complicated by human nature. Your ability to learn from both successes and failures is a key determinant of how successful an investor you’ll be.

  1. When you’ve a trading stance that’s contrary to the expectation of the majority, you’ll need ongoing patience and conviction to stick to that.

  1. Never stop learning: otherwise you’ll get passed by.

Conclusion: James Altucher says you shouldn’t be sad when you fail and be happy when you succeed. Both are going to happen again and again at every new level.  When your excessive worrying goes out of control, then you need to adjust your viewpoint. You need to get help from fellow traders and/or mental trading professionals. When you master your mindset and change your outlook on trading, you’ll begin to feel you’re in control of your fate in the markets, not that the markets are in control of you. Although there’ll be times when you find it challenging to remain calm, you’ll have a better sense of why markets behave the way they do, and you know how to control the risk. Sometimes, the best way out of painful negativity is through it, not around it. That’s when you’re able to look at open trades rationally, not emotionally.

This article is concluded with a quote from Whitney:

"Investors see nothing but sunny skies as far as the eye can see and therefore do not care one iota about risk. They are pursuing returns regardless of risk, and therefore the most speculative companies and investment classes are doing very well."


Source: www.tallinex.com


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Wednesday, October 21, 2015

What Kind Of Price Action Is This On S&P 500?

The situation surrounding the S&P 500 stock (SP500) is interesting. Some experts believe the price would collapse further, but the current price action shows that the price would continue to rally till, at least, the first quarter of the year 2016.

The price performed a major bearish movement in August 2015, and therefore, the market became highly volatile with no clear directional movement in September. However, the price has now started a nice bullish effort, which might go on till the resistance levels at 2100, 2200 and 2300 are eventually attained.

What kind of price action is this on S&P 500? The current price action is in favor of the bulls. The price has gone far above the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is in the overbought territory.

The fact that the Williams’ % Range is in the overbought territory does not mean that the market is now due for a strong pullback (that thought is currently illogical). It means the bullish bias is strong, and while there could be occasional pauses and shallow corrections in the months to come, the price would generally go further north.  

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Learn to recognize that price is a fickle thing that can change its mind faster than Hollywood actors change relationships. The price moves like the people who move it.” - Gordon Philips

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Globo to Go Further South

Globo shares (LSE:GBO) are expected to go further south, owing to the current weakness in the market. The price has been going south since June 2015. Towards the end of September, the price made some bullish effort while the outlook remained bearish.

At the beginning of this month, the price consolidated and then broke down. The ADX period 14 is at the level 30, showing a considerable strength in the market, The DM- is above the DM+, meaning that the bears are now dominating. The MACD, default parameters, has it histogram below the zero line. The MACD signal lines are also almost crossing the zero line to the downside.

With time, the MACD signal lines would be completely below the zero line, given the current weakness of the shares. Globo price is thus supposed to go further south until the demand level at 20.00 is tested.  The price can go further south than this – bringing huge profits to sellers. Buyers who refuse to cut their losses are in for big pains.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“..Perhaps the greatest lesson of all, should you happen to leap before you look, never, ever trade on hope or stay in a trade based on hope. If you are wrong, GET OUT! If you don't have the discipline to do that, you shouldn't be trading.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Sunday, October 18, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for October 19, 2015

The Cable moved upwards last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.5500 a few times. The price was unable to break above the distribution territory – something that needs to be achieved this week so that the uptrend could continue. The uptrend would be rational as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5200 is not broken to the downside.

EUR/USD:  There is a bullish outlook on the pair, though it was corrected lower by the end of the last trading week. The bearish correction could end up being a wonderful opportunity to go long this week (unless the demand level at 1.1250 is broken to the downside). The resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500 could be reached this week.


USD/CHF: There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USD/CHF; plus the pair would remain under selling pressure as long as the EUR/USD is in a bullish mode. So it is logical to conclude that the movement on the USD/CHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD:  The Cable moved upwards last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.5500 a few times. The price was unable to break above the distribution territory – something that needs to be achieved this week so that the uptrend could continue. The uptrend would be rational as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5200 is not broken to the downside. This means that any noticed pullbacks in the market could be taken as opportunities to go long.         

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument has moved back into the neutral territory, owing to the upward bounce that we see after the bearish plunge that happened last week. The price fell by 200 pips and later rose by 150 pips. For a neutral bias to vanish, the price must either go above the supply level at 121.00 or go below the demand level at 118.00.

EUR/JPY: This cross, which traded sideways from Monday till Wednesday last week, broke towards the south on Thursday. The southwards break was strong, but it was not strong enough to jeopardize the existing bullish outlook. A movement below the demand zone at 134.50 would result in a bearish outlook (though it is expected that the demand zone would defend the extant bullish outlook). Any movement above the supply zone at 136.00 would reinforce the existing bullish outlook, which might mean that the pullback which happened on Thursday was a nice opportunity to go long.  

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html 



Saturday, October 17, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 19 - 23, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair initially moved upwards last week, but it could not reach the resistance line at 1.1500 before it got corrected downwards. On Friday, price closed at 1.1348, though the bias is bullish. The bullish bias will remain valid as long as the support line at 1.1250 is not broken to the downside. Any bearish attempts that are seen here should be interpreted as an opportunity to go long, unless the aforementioned support line is broken to the downside.      

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
As long as EURUSD makes visible bullish effort, USDCHF would not perform any meaningful rally. Price went south last week, testing the support level at 0.9500 many times without being able to close below it. On Friday, price closed below the resistance level at 0.9550. There is a need to breach the support level at 0.9500 to the downside so that the bearish trend could continue. There are resistance levels at 0.9600 and 0.9650, which should try to defend the current bearish bias.   

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish    
This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday. It went south on Tuesday, but rallied seriously on Wednesday in conformity to the existing bullish outlook. Price headed into the distribution territory at 1.5500; being unable to break above it. That distribution territory is now a challenge to bulls – they must overcome it so that the current bullish outlook could continue to make sense. The pair is supposed to continue moving upwards.      

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral    
USDJPY experienced a bearish breakout last week, and price went down 200 pips as a result of that. This would have led to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but the upwards bounce that happened after that has pushed back the price into the recent neutral territory. Price bounced upwards by 150 pips, just before the demand level at 118.00 could be tested. The condition for the end of the current neutral bias is this: Price must either close above the supply level at 121.00 or below the demand level at 118.00. That condition can still be fulfilled this month.   
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross moved sideways from Monday till Wednesday (October 12 - 14), and then performed a large pullback on Thursday, testing the demand zone at 135.00. Unless the demand zone at 134.50 is breached to the downside, EURJPY the uptrend would be rational. It is likely that EURJPY would go up this week or next week. Most JPY pairs could also go up before the end of the month.      

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Your best bet is to think like a four-year-old. When prices go up, I am bullish, and when
they go down, I am bearish.” – Dennis Gartman
                                                                                                  


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html



Thursday, October 15, 2015

MT4 Is No Longer Compatible With Windows XP

“It actually becomes imperative that you do the right thing habitually in order to get the right results habitually.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

About 7 months ago, while I was coaching one of my Forex trainees, we suddenly noticed that anytime we tried to open the MT4, the computer would be restarted. We first thought the antivirus software on the laptop was misbehaving, and we got it removed. After restarting the system, the same problem continued: the system continued to crash each time we tried to open the MT4, though the system didn’t crash when we opened another software on it.

I and my trainees were perplexed because I never experienced such a problem in my life. What could we do? I logged onto my broker’s website, thanks to their 24-hour live chart availability. After I complained about the same problem, the broker’s customer support agent told us that they never experienced such a problem before. If nothing was really wrong with our laptop, then it was a rare problem. The broker’s agent then referred us to one popular forum where some traders could be experiencing the same problem.

There was it! On that Forum we came across those who were having a similar experience like us. Then we saw that some people had detected the cause of the problem, plus a simple solution.

Meta Trader is no longer compatible with Windows XP.

My laptop uses Window 7 (and I don’t have this kind of problem), while some laptops used by my trainees had Windows XP in them. Without any issues, they were using MT4 with Windows XP until recently. The solution is simple: Get rid of Windows XP and have Widows 7 or Windows 8 installed in your PC. If your RAM is too low for Windows 7 or 8, then you got to have the RAM upgraded.

We removed Windows XP from my trainees’ PCs and installed Windows 7. Since then, we’ve been enjoying excellent trading experiences.

I wrote this article so that traders who have the same problem could find the only simple and effective solution – Use MT4 on Windows 7 or 8.

Windows XP is excellent software, extremely popular among professionals and other users of PCs. When Widows Vista was released, it got a cold reception, and as such, people still preferred XP. When Windows 7 came, most people liked it (and the same is true of Windows 8).

A long time ago, Microsoft announced that they would no longer support Windows XP. When a maker of software stops supporting that software, that means its days are numbered. I’ll always remember Windows XP with a fond memory, though times have changed. Unfortunately, XP will soon be in the museum.

When I started trading Forex, MT3 was just being phase out; thus I used MT4 right away. MT4 has been around for a long time and it’s getting more and more popular. It’s currently the most popular trading platform in the world of Forex trading. We thought MT5 would reduce the popularity of MT4, but we were wrong. When MT5 was released, it got a cold reception. Even now, MT5 isn’t being offered by most Forex brokers.

Because the popularity of the MT4 keeps increasing, the maker simply keeps on updating and improving it, rather than discouraging its use. At the time of writing this article, I was using the MT4 Build 840.

Conclusion: We should continue enjoying our Forex trading experiences on MT4, with Windows 7 or Windows 8. Yes, trading remains a fantastic way of life because it is an ultimate ladder to an everlasting financial freedom. There is one female Australian who took a break from full-time farming and began to study the markets with the aim of becoming a profitable trader. Her inspiring story shows how she tackles the market with great calm and gleans profits. She recently made a profit of about 32%. While she realized that there’s nothing like instant or overnight success in the markets, she continued to toil at trading mastery until she’s able to glean results. May you attain financial freedom through Forex trading and on the MT4 platform.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“Genius is based on mental strategies... Genius comes in when you incorporate states like optimism, resilience, self-efficacy, self-esteem, developing your personal power, the ability to find value and opportunity and take advance of it, etc.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Trading Recommendation on FTSE 100 (October 2015 – January 2016)

FTSE 100 (FTSE:UKX) has been trying to start a long-term bullish journey, which would hold out for the rest of this year (even beyond this year). This market has endearing attributes, one of which is the ability to assume a protracted trending mode when the fundamentals support it.

4 EMAs are used for the analysis and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. Within the last several months, the price has been swinging downwards, causing the EMAs to slope downwards.

Normally, the downwards movement is usually a harbinger for an upwards movement: the price has broken above the EMAs 10, 20, and 50; which is a threat to the extant bearish bias. It is more likely that the price would continue to make bullish effort until it crosses the EMA 200 to the upside, which would be an end of the bearish bias.

This means that a Golden Cross is anticipated here and once it happens, other EMAs would align with it. FTSE 100 would most probably continue making bullish effort from now on till the middle of January 2016.  

If you apply yourself to study and research the markets, you will never cease to learn new things about market and how it works.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Grant me courage to enter new positions, even when my trader’s heart is wounded, because my trading plan determines it should be so.” – Louise Bedford

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Castleton – A Trap For Reckless Buyers

Castleton stock (LSE:CTP) has been acting as a trap for reckless buyers. This is not a market in which you should go long because it is quite choppy as well as consolidating to the downside.

The price has gone below the lower Trendline and at the same time, the RSI period 14 has gone below the level 50. This shows a hidden weakness in the market, which would likely continue. When the price was between the upper and lower Trendlines, it simply zigzagged.

It would be nice to make our career easy for as long as attainable. We do not need to be swayed by irrelevant noises, as long as we stick to our trading plans. We simply need to do that repetitiously.

Casleton is currently not a market in which buyers can make money.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“There will always be the next drawdown – that is what you have to live with as a trader.” – Oliver Klemm

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Sunday, October 11, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for October 12, 2015

 The EUR/JPY performed a clean bullish movement on October 9, 2015. This has led to a bullish bias on the market, which could enable the price to go upwards by at least, 200 pips. The supply zones 137.00 and 138.00 could be tried this week.   

EUR/USD:  The EUR/USD seems to have ended a few weeks of high volatility with no clear direction, having gone upwards last week. In order to sustain this new bullish direction, the price needs to continue its upwards journey, reaching the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450.  There are support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200, which may not be tested as long as the bullish direction holds.


USD/CHF: It was once noted that the direction on the USD/CHF would largely be determined by the direction of the EUR/USD itself. Since the later has gone upwards, the former has gone downwards. The former (USD/CHF) has started a bearish movement, which would hold out as long as the latter (EUR/USD) is strong.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD made a nice bullish movement last week – which resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This outlook on GBP pairs is bullish for this week, and we may see a continuation of the current bullish journey, taking the price towards the distribution territories at 1.5400 and 1.5500.   

USD/JPY:  This market remains in an equilibrium phase, not going above the supply level at 121.00 nor going below the demand level at 119.00. There must be a journey above the supply level or below the demand level before it can be said that the equilibrium phase is over (which is something that will happen this week or next week). When a breakout does occur, it would probably be towards the north, for there is an expectation of bullishness on JPY pairs.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY performed a clean bullish movement on October 9, 2015. This has led to a bullish bias on the market, which could enable the price to go upwards by at least, 200 pips. The supply zones 137.00 and 138.00 could be tried this week.  

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Trading Signals for JPY Pairs (October 12 - 30, 2015)

USDJPY = Buy

AUDJPY = Buy

CADJPY = Buy

CHFJPY = Buy

EURJPY = Buy

GBPJPY = Buy

NZDJPY = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 12 - 16, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
EURUSD went north last week, closing above the support line at 1.1350. This seems to have ended the recent choppy movement in the market. By every indication, it is much more likely that the pair would continue going upwards this week, breaking above the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450. The support lines at 1.1300 and 1.1250 should try to defend the current bullishness in the market.    

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market has become bearish, dropping from the resistance level at 0.9750, and testing the support level at 0.9600. This has led to a bearish signal in the market, which might enable price to continue going further south. As long as EURUSD keeps on going up, USDCHF would be under selling pressure. The support lines at 0.9600, which has already been tested, could be re-tested. It could even be broken to the downside as price targets another support line at 0.9500.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish    
Contrary to the sideways movement that was witnessed two week ago, GBPUSD performed some bullish movement last week. There is no longer a bearish outlook on GBPUSD. Price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5150 and closed above the accumulation territory at 1.5300 (though it briefly went above the distribution territory at 1.5350). For this week, the outlook on the pair is bullish: something that is true of GBP pairs. We may thus see price attaining the distribution territories at 1.5450 and 1.5500.    

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral    
This currency trading instrument has not yet made any serious direction movement, except that price vacillates between the supply level at 121.00 and the demand level at 119.00. This has been going on for several weeks. However one thing is sure: There would be an end to the present consolidation in this month and it might happen this week. When a breakout happens, it would most likely favor bulls.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
The rally that happened on this cross has caused a nice Bullish Confirmation Pattern on it. On Friday, price closed at 136.58; on a bullish note.  This means the cross is much more likely to continue going further upwards and thus, a northward movement of at least, 200 pips, could be witnessed this week. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week; partly owing to the ongoing weakness in JPY.     

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The most important thing is to understand that the “holy grail” in trading is the combination of discipline and a strategy with a positive expected value. Once you have that, you just have to be successful.” – Oliver Klemm
                                                                                                  


  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html 

Friday, October 9, 2015

Trading Signals for AUD Pairs (October 12 - 28, 2015)

AUDJPY = Buy

AUDUSD = Buy

EURAUD = Sell

AUDCAD = Buy

AUDCHF = Buy

GBPAUD = Sell

AUDNZD = Buy


NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 lots would be used. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained. You need to use your technical analysis to know when to enter, since you may want to trade a pair only after your entry criteria have been met.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



  
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Martin Schwartz: He Lost Money For Nine Years Before Making Millions Every Year

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 14

“Most traders will quit and stay away from trading after blowing up a few trading accounts. But those with grit will constantly reflect upon their actions and seek to better themselves, which separates the winners from the losers.” – Rayner Teo

Name: Martin Schwartz
Year of birth: 1945
Nationality: American
Hobbies: Professional trading and professional horse racing

Career
In 1967, Martin attended Amherst College. He also earned an MBA from Columbia University in 1970. He served in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserves from the year 1968 to the year 1973.  He also worked as a financial analyst at E. F. Hutton.

He saved about one $100,000 USD and went into full-time trading, buying a seat on the American Stock Exchange. That year, he made a profit of $600, 000 USD and in the following year, he made a profit of $1.2 million USD. But we need to know that prior to that time, he was a consistent loser in the markets.

In 1984, Martin became famous when he won the U.S. Investing Championship. He’s made great wealth from the markets. He authored a book titled “Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader.” He loves to go for short-term market fluctuations, and being successful at doing that, he began managing money for other people.

From the year 2002 till now, Martin Schwartz has been winning in professional horse racing.

Insights
  1. Contrary to some people’s opinion, it’s possible to become a successful trader using technical analysis. When Martin was trading based on fundamentals, he was losing. When he became a technical analyst he earned a fortune. However, there are also successful fundamental analysts. The lesson is that, you shouldn’t say something can’t work for others just because it isn’t working for you.

  1. You need to approach the markets as a serious business; those who comply with this fact get paid from those who don’t comply.

  1. You need to work hard before you can become a profitable trader. There’s nothing worth having which comes easily. Hard work is part of your probability of attaining success as a trader.

  1. We want to make money, without being necessarily right. We need to master our ego and realize that making money is more important than being right. We make money by cutting our losses, and we lose money by letting them run. Martin Schwartz says that by preserving your capital through the use of stops, you make it possible to wait patiently for a high-probability trade with a low-risk entry-point. One of the great tools of trading is the stop, the point at which you divorce yourself from your emotions and ego and admit that you´re wrong.

  1. Prepare for each trading day, for it matters much. No trades, no profits. You need to pull the trigger before you can hope to make any profits.

Conclusion: There are traders who’ve spent many years in the markets without being profitable. Isn’t it so frustrating when we keep on losing money in spite of the vast knowledge we’ve in the markets? We’ll be tempted from time to time to conclude that it’s impossible to make money trading Forex, yet we won’t give up because there is a kind of inner hope that would keep on pushing us to success. We definitely need to be courageous. We shouldn’t make things difficult for ourselves when trading. Majority of traders don’t want to agree that using difficult trading methods don’t increase profitability. 

This article is ended with a quote from Martin:

“Trading is a psychological game. Most people think they are playing against the market, but the market doesn´t care. You’re really playing against yourself.”



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders
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