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Tuesday, June 30, 2015

It Is Time to Purchase Metal Tiger Shares

Metal Tiger shares (LSE:MTR) are trying to rally and this is something that is supported by the present price action in the market. The price has been volatile but it can be seen that the bulls are gaining upper hands.

In the chart, the ADX period 14 is at the level 30, which means that the momentum in the market is rising. The DM+ is clearly above the DM-, meaning that the bias is bullish. The MACD default parameters, has both its signal lines and the histogram above the zero line. This shows a vivid Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the best action to take now is to go long.

When the price starts moving, it would disregard any forms of analysis you use, no matter how complicated. Reliable trading methodologies sometimes appear useless when the market conditions are temporarily not favorable to them.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“But the interesting aspect about trading is that your IQ has little to do with successful trading. We have seen traders who made millions with a zero level education, and traders who failed even with a master’s degree.” – Rayner Teo

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (July 2015)

Gulf Keystone stock (LSE:GKP) has broken out of a long-term base and this could be the beginning of a persistent bullish run. The price trended south in January to March 2015. The gap that occurred in February simply proffered an opportunity to sell short in the context of a downtrend.

Since April, the stock has been moving sideways, forming a strong base. Upon a closer look, it would be seen that the price was consolidating to the downside.  What would happen now? There is one sure outcome: Sideways and slow movements would be followed by strong and fast movements, no matter how long the slow movements take. Strong and fast movements would be followed by sideways and slow, no matter how long the fast movements take. When the markets are moving slowly and sideways, trend-following strategies suffer.

The price has broken to the upside, closing above the EMA 21; plus the Williams’ % Range period 20 gone into the overbought region. The price appears to be ready for a northwards journey within the next several months.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“After all, one thing is certain: The best tip will only be of use to you if you believe in it deep down and can then apply it consistently in practical trading.” – Marko Graenitz

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Sunday, June 28, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 29, 2015

The GBP/USD fell by roughly 200 pips last week, threatening the recent bullish outlook on the market. The bullish outlook would be valid only as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5650 is not broken to the downside. Once the accumulation territory is breached to the downside, the outlook would become bearish – an event that is more likely this week. This would also affect other GBP pairs.

EUR/USD: There is already a bearish signal on this pair, though there is a formidable barrier to the bears’ interest at the support line of 1.1150. A break of that support line would enable the price to go further southwards more smoothly.


USD/CHF: This market has the propensity to go upwards, which would become possible in case the EUR/USD goes further downwards. There is a stubborn resistance level at 0.9400, which the bulls need to breach in order to maintain the existing dominance.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD fell by roughly 200 pips last week, threatening the recent bullish outlook on the market. The bullish outlook would be valid only as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5650 is not broken to the downside. Once the accumulation territory is breached to the downside, the outlook would become bearish – an event that is more likely this week. This would also affect other GBP pairs.

USD/JPY: This is currently a persistent sideways market which has been going on for a few weeks. There is bound to be a break above the supply level at 124.50 or below the demand level at 122.50.  On the USD/JPY, there would be a great directional movement in July 2015 (and most probable in direction of bears).  

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY is a bear market, and since the bearish signal has been formed, the market has been going in a sideways movement. However, there could be a significant movement today or next week. The fundamental events in the Eurozone could cause a great impact in the market; plus the situation of the Euro would be the greatest determinant of the movement on this cross.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Saturday, June 27, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 29 – July 3, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Because of the events in the Eurozone, EUR pairs might open with gaps this week and in case the gaps happen, they would harbinger great volatility in the markets for the rest of the week. EURUSD trended downwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bearish and a bearish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. The possible breakout would happen when the support line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside as price goes further downwards to other support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000. A movement above the resistance line at 1.1300 would render this expectation invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair trended upwards in the beginning of last week, and later moved sideways till the end of the week. The bias is bullish and a bullish breakout is possible at the end of the current sideways movement. This week, the sanguine bulls would try to keep price moving upwards, and so, the possible breakout would happen when the resistance level at 0.9400 is broken to the upside as price goes further upwards to other resistance levels at 0.9450 and 0.9500. On the other hand, a movement below the resistance line at 0.9200 would render this stated possibility illogical.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable came down by roughly 200 pips last week – a threat to the extant bullish bias. Price then moved in an equilibrium phase till the close of the market on Friday, June 26, 2015. There is now a very high probability that this market (and most other GBP pairs) would become seriously weak, starting from this week and in the first half of July 2015. The current bullish bias would be valid only as long as price is above the accumulation territory at 1.5650.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral   
This trading instrument is currently consolidating. Price is generally moving/oscillating between the supply level at 124.50 and the demand level at 122.50. It would normally be expected that price would eventually break above the aforementioned supply level or demand level, paving way for a sustained trending move. A strong southward movement is highly possible in the month of July 2015.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Just like EURUSD, this cross first trended downwards last week before moving sideways. Whatever happens to Euro (such as gaps, strong movement), would have similar impact on this cross. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and a strong bearish trend is probable in July.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“When you trade from a carefree state of mind, everything about your trading changes.
Remember, that the primary skill that we are talking about here is simply trading without fear. This is a trading skill. It is the primary trading skill that you will have to acquire to create consistency – to trade without fear.” – Mark Douglas
                                                                                                  


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Thursday, June 25, 2015

The Greatest Trading Skill in the World

“With every trade or investment there are four possible outcomes. You can have a small win, big win, small loss or big loss. As long as we make sure we eliminate the big loss from happening, we can certainly live with the other three.” – Sam Seiden

What’s the most important thing every trader can/must do? What’s the greatest trading skill in the world?

One market wizard was asked this question, and he answered that there are 3 things you must do:
1.      Cut your losses.
2.      Cut your losses.
3.      Cut your losses.
If you can do these three things, then you may have a chance of becoming a successful trader.

Warren Buffet also has been quoted as saying that there are two most important things you must do:
1.      Don’t lose your money.
2.      Don’t forget the rule above.

The market has no respect for your educational background or achievements. It has not respect for your high school diploma or a collection of PhDs. The market doesn’t respect your political posts or achievements. The market doesn’t respect any strategy you use whatsoever: whether simple or complicated. The market doesn’t know whether you’re highly experienced or have no experience. The market has no knowledge of your religious background, beliefs and titles (whether you’re a bishop, primate, general overseer, etc.). The market has no acknowledgment of your race, tribe, nationality or region or age or gender. It doesn’t know if you’re a chairman or a president or an administrator or a manager or a CEO or a founder. The market has no sympathy for your poor background or your rich status. You may be a celeb, a star or a hero somewhere else, but the market couldn’t care less. The market couldn’t care less whether you’re a chief market strategist or a currency analyst or a senior analyst or an official analyst or a coach or a funds manager or a website manager or an accomplished programmer or a software developer or a financial journalist. The market has no regards or honor for who or what you’re. The only person the market respects is the person that cuts his losses. 

 When you see professional traders dashing themselves against the floor of their trading rooms and crying like a baby, it’s because they don’t cut their losses. When you see a pro trader running to a medical doctor for help; while the doctor says there’s nothing wrong with her/him, it’s because she/he doesn’t cut their losses.

The best trader in the world is excellent at cutting his losses. When a trade is opened according to a technical or fundamental signal, the best trader opens his trade. However, if there’s a loss, he quickly closes the trade. There’s no hope or question or argument from the best trader. When a trade doesn’t work, he closes it. But another trader – the crazy speculator – argues in favor of significantly losing positions.

Losses are like weeds in a garden while profits are like flowers in the garden. We want to remove our weeds and water our flowers. We don’t want to water our weeds and remove our flowers, but according to cold reality, many traders remove their flowers by cutting their profits and water their weeds by allowing their losses to run.

Your ability to cut your losses when they’re still insignificant is the most important aspect of your trading career. It’s the greatest determinant of your everlasting success, your ability to survive losing streaks (which all proficient traders must inevitably face occasionally), and the possibility of ending up being profitable.

Someone with 80% accuracy will lose his money eventually for failing to cut her/his losses while someone with 40% accuracy will ends up winning eventually for cutting losses. When 80% profits are cut and 20% losses are run, she/he ends up losing money because the 20% losses that aren’t controlled can take away all the profits and provide further negativity. When the 60% losses are cut and 40% profits are allowed to run, she/he ends up making money.

Triumphant traders focus on what they can really control, i.e. their losses (plus profits), knowing full well that their overall success has nothing to do with their strategy which simply shows them when to buy or when to sell. The knowledge of fundamentals, technicals, Elliot Wave, Fibonacci, programming, etc. can’t help you if you fail to cut your losses. When an Elliot Wave company makes forecasts and loses, they can be saved only by cutting their losses. Decades of experiences can’t help you unless you are good at cutting your losses. Failure to cut your losses will eventually lead to frustration.

Great fundamental figures like Non-farm Payroll have sent some people to their grave because they bet too big and failed to cover their losses. On the other hand, these great fundamental figures have benefitted sane speculators as well.

If you believe in scalping or robots or candlestick patterns, don’t forget that the ability to cut your loss while it’s small is the ultimate thing. When you enter a trade based on a Hanging Man (Hammer), you might later see it as a “Sitting Man (fata morgana)” if you don’t cut your losses. Whether you follow signals or copy trades, cut your losses. Whether you use 5-minute charts, or 30-minute charts, or hourly charts, or 4-hour charts or daily charts, cut your losses. 

You shouldn’t bet big in the first place: only bet very small. When the small bet proves to be wrong, then exit with a small loss. This is your life insurance in the market. A small loss that’s allowed to run can metamorphose into a gargantuan negativity.

When I place a trade and it loses, I exit at a predetermined level.
When I place another trade and it loses, I exit at a predetermined level.
When I place another trade and it loses, I exit at a predetermined level.
When I place another trade and it loses, I exit at a predetermined level!
When I place another trade and it loses, I exit at a predetermined level!!
When I place another trade and it loses, I exit at a predetermined level!!!

Anytime I see a weed, I don’t allow it to grow. I can continue losing, and usually, I don’t go down more than 5% in worst-case scenario. After all, the existence of my account is the most needed thing, not the profits on it. When a winning streak comes around, I quickly recover. This is the most effective way to make uncertainties my ally.

With a series of stop loss triggers, breakeven triggers, trailing stop triggers and take profit triggers (alternating themselves randomly), I’m sure to move ahead in the long run, no matter how slowly.

You remain victorious as long as you cut your losses without hesitation. Last month, I made a profit of 950 pips as a result of cutting my losses. I’m not better than other traders – neither is my strategy. I realize that cutting my losses is what I must do in order to make profits consistently and enjoy permanent success as a trader. Ability to cut losses is a huge edge indeed! Please don’t let your competitor know about this.

The quote below ends this piece: 

“Cut Your Losses Short and Let Your Winners Run,” is the salvation of our trading plans.  Since we will both win and lose, big winners outshine small losses every time… Here’s a rule we can take to the bank:  Whenever you identify HOPE as the primary reason for holding a position, CLOSE IT IMMEDIATLY!” - Bob Robertson




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

A Miracle Will Soon Happen on Afren

A Miracle is expected to happen on Alfren shares (LSE:AFR), which would make them soar. This is what sensible speculators have been waiting for and they almost would not get disappointed. The market was in a strong downtrend late last year and in January 2015. However, since February, there has been a very tight sideways movement in the chart, which is valid till now.

The sideways movement might continue, but there is bound to be a breakout. A breakout to the downside is not a possibility to be ignored, though a breakout to the upside is more likely.

It can be seen that the price has been moving within the upper and lower Trendlines, and it is yet to break out above or below one of them. The RSI period 14 is going towards the level 50, which means that the bullish strength is a kind of rising. When the RSI is above the level 50, the best option would be to go long, especially when the price breaks the upper Trendline above. The reverse is true of a bearish breakout, which is a price break below the lower Trendline and a movement of the RSI below the level 50.

There are trading methodologies which are worthless and there are useful methodologies.  Astute speculators remain faithful to their useful methodologies when they work and when they do not work; thus making average gains that are more than average losses. There is no way bad times will not come occasionally, irrespective of a trading method used, but it is important to remain faithful to one’s methodology.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“I’ll try to give you a few things to think about, but unless you can overcome your inability to accept risk, you don’t have much of a chance to make it as a trader.” - Andy Jordan

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Valirx Stock Is Useless to Sellers

Valirx stock (LSE:VAL) is not  a market in which sellers can currently make money, and therefore, it is useless to them. From January to May 2015, the price moved in an equilibrium zone, and then broke upwards seriously. The price is currently volatile, but things are still in favor of buyers.

4 EMAs are used for this analysis: they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown in the top left part of the chart. All the EMAs are currently sloping upwards, allowing a confirmation of a bullish bias. The price may temporarily pull back into the EMA 10 and 20 (or even the EMA 50), proffering buying opportunities.

Further bullish movement is thus expected on Valirx. Though a market prognosis may be beneficial, but that does not mean that one has a guarantee of what would happen tomorrow.  When monitoring open positions, one will realize that times of entries and exits are important. When trades are constantly followed, some losses would matter over time.  

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Mobile Trading has opened up the financial markets to a remarkable degree. No longer are traders forced to stay at their desktops in order to access the markets.” – Joe Rundle

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Sunday, June 21, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 22, 2015

The GBP/USD moved upwards nicely last week – a movement of 350 pips. Since June 8, 2015, the price has moved upwards by 650 pips. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is now being threatened and it could be slashed to the upside, as bulls target another distribution territory at 1.5950. However, the pair could reverse massively before the end of this week or this month.

EUR/USD: This pair remains a bull market, for the bulls were able to keep the price upwards in spite of the bears’ effort to push it down. The possible targets for this week are the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. On the downside, there are support lines at 1.1250 and 1.1200.


USD/CHF: This is a bear market. The selling pressure that happened last week enabled the recalcitrant resistance level at 0.9250 to be breached to the downside (including another resistance level at 0.9200). The support level at 0.9150 has also been tested and it could be tested again. It could even be breached to the downside. As long as the price is unable to go above the resistance level at 0.9350, the bearish outlook would remain intact.

GBP/USD: The GBP/USD moved upwards nicely last week – a movement of 350 pips. Since June 8, 2015, the price has moved upwards by 650 pips. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is now being threatened and it could be slashed to the upside, as bulls target another distribution territory at 1.5950. However, the pair could reverse massively before the end of this week or this month.

USD/JPY: Following some protracted consolidation that first happened last week, there was a false bullish breakout in the market, which happened briefly before the bears pushed down the price. There may be further downwards movement this week.

EUR/JPY: Although the outlook here is bullish, the price condition is not stable. This week would determine whether the price would continue going upwards or whether it would go downwards: depending largely on whatever happens to the EUR.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html 


Saturday, June 20, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 22 - 26, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURUSD first consolidated last week; then it broke upwards, closing above the support line at 1.1300. The bias is still bullish and price could test the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. Failure to do this could lead to a drop in the price, and therefore, the condition of USD would be the greatest determinant of the movement of EURUSD for the rest of this month. Only a significant weakness in USD may help EURUSD maintain its current bullish bias.   

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair was able to break below the resistance level at 0.9250 (which bears could not breach in the first two weeks of June 2015). Since then, price has moved below another resistance level at 0.9200. The support level at 0.9150 was tested last week and it could be tested again, especially with more selling pressure in the market. That support level could even be breached to the downside.     

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBP is really strong, and the evidence can be seen on most GBP pairs. Cable moved upwards by 350 pips last week, and it has moved upwards by 650 pips this month. The distribution territory at 1.5900 is currently being besieged and it might end up being slashed by bulls. Another possible target is the distribution territory at 1.5950. However, Cable must now be approached with caution because it is possible that the pair would become weak before the end of this week or this month.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish     
This market first moved sideways last week. On June 17, there was a false bullish breakout, which made the market go upwards by 100 pips before bears came in to force it lower. The market is now close to the demand level at 122.50, which may be breached to the downside anytime. It should be borne in mind that this market is expected to trend lower and lower in the month of July 2015: hence any rallies in the short-term could well bring short-selling opportunities.  
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross did not make any large movement last week, though the outlook remains bullish. The bullish outlook itself is not very strong. So, any movement below the demand zone at 138.00 would mean the end of the bullish outlook, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This is a condition that would signify the bearish power on the cross.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“My opinion is that traders who have long been around and keep learning, will establish themselves automatically.” – Dr. Brett N. Steenbarger



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Sam Zell: A Famed Investor

 INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 7

“I appreciate the opportunity to manage money for others. A lot of people don’t enjoy it, but I do.” – Mike Melissinos

Name: Sam Zell
Date of Birth: September 27, 1941
Nationality: American
Occupation: Business magnate, investor and philanthropist
Website: www.egizell.com

Career
Sam’s parents were Jewish immigrants who left Poland to settle in the States before the outbreak of the World War II. Sam was born in Chicago and he attended Highland Park High School in Highland Park, Illinois. He obtained a BA from the University of Michigan and later, he obtained a JD (Juris Doctor) from the University of Michigan Law School.

In 1967, Sam founded Equity Group Investments. Bob Lurie Robert H. Lurie joined him and they worked together to transform the firm into a vast business empire. Lurie died in 1990, but the business continues to grow and grow and grow. One source confirms that the majority of Sam Zell’s investment portfolio ranges across industries such as energy, logistics, communications and transportation, but he is often best known for his pioneering role and stewardship in creating the modern commercial real estate industry. Moreover, EGI’s holdings also include fixed-income investments in public and private companies.

Sam is involved in various international and local causes, donating generously to them, including education. He’s blessed with 3 children.

As of January 2015, Sam was worth about $4,900,000,000.


Insights:

1.      Good traders and investors are able to tackle the uncertainties in the markets, solving the problems of the unpredictable nature of the markets in simple ways. That’s the secret of our ongoing success. We make complex problems (that put off people from the markets) look simple. We simplify these problems and come with simple solutions. That’s exactly what Sam has been doing in decades – unraveling the mystery of various markets and amassing huge wealth by doing so.

2.      There’s one though-provoking quote on Egizell.com, which says: “Solid business strategy is not anchored in suit, or a tie. It comes from the gut. Corporate culture can’t be dictated. It comes from the soul. A great company comes from the heart.” How true is it!

3.      The qualities of a good trader aren’t measured by her/his attitude when things are right, when things are fine, and during winning streaks; but when the road is rough, tough and during losing streaks.

Conclusion: Winning strategies are the ones that go contrary to the expectation of the public, and that’s why it takes serious discipline to follow such strategies. We want to follow good strategies when they work and when they don’t work.

This article is concluded by a quote from Sam:

“The reality is that I need to be challenged and interested, as long as the risk and reward is in line.”


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html   

Further reading: Advfnbooks.com



Source: www.tallinex.com  

Is It Now Dangerous To Buy Cap-XX?

Cap-XX shares (LSE:CPX) have been trending downwards for the past several weeks, and further movement downwards in the next several days would result in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.

The price went upwards significantly within the last days of April and early May 2015, but since then things have been getting bearish in the short term. The ADX period 14 is not too far below the level 30, meaning that the market currently has some momentum in it. The DM+ is below the DM-, which means that the bears are currently strong. The MACD default parameters still has its histogram below the zero line, plus the signal lines are also about to cross the zero line to the downside.

A close below the demand zone at 2.500 would result in a clean bearish signal and it would then be dangerous to go long here: unless there is a significant rally.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Trading requires discipline. A trading plan is of little value if you abandon it prematurely. The disciplined trader executes a plan and controls his or her emotions until the plan comes to fruition.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Where Will Clear Leisure Price Go Next?

Clear Leisure stock (LSE:CLP) is currently making some attempt to go upwards. So far in this month, the market was moving sideways, just as the crab walks sideways, but there is currently a bullish price action in the chart, in the context of the recent turbulence in the market. Where will the price go next?

The price is now above the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is also in the overbought region. This is a ‘buy’ signal: the price would continue going upwards, breaching the distribution territories at 2.0 and 3.0 to the upside within the next several months. This would happen as the unbelieving bear feels at ease. It is easier to remove something from a kid’s grasp when they are fast asleep (when the bear is sleeping). The expected further journey to the upside should really be a surprise to the bulls.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Say ‘yes’ to what moves you towards your dreams. Stretch, strive, and dare to let your imagination run wild about what you are capable of achieving. The best traders do it, and so can you.” – Louise Bedford

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders



Sunday, June 14, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 15, 2015

In spite of the struggles of the bulls, the USD/JPY is still bearish in the short-term. The only factor that can render the bearish trend useless is an event in which the price goes above the supply level at 125.00; otherwise the bearish outlook would be valid for most part of this week.

EUR/USD: There is still a valid ‘buy’ signal on this pair, and it is rational to expect that the pair would go further upwards, testing the resistance lines at 1.1350 and 1.1400. After all, the resistance line at 1.1350 was tested last week. A continuous movement above the support line at 1.1150 would make the bullish expectation valid; otherwise, things would go bearish.


USD/CHF: This is a bear market, and the desperate struggle between the bulls and bears have created lots of volatility here. Last week, it can be seen that the price tested the support line at 0.9250 a few times, but it was unable to break it to the downside. The support line must be broken to the downside this week in order for the bearish bias to be strengthened further. Should that fail to happen, there would be a high risk of a bullish breakout.

GBP/USD: The Cable is currently strong and it should reach the distribution territory at 1.5700 this week. Nevertheless, a serious weakness could happen later this week or before the end of the month.

USD/JPY: In spite of the struggles of the bulls, the USD/JPY is still bearish in the short-term. The only factor that can render the bearish trend useless is an event in which the price goes above the supply level at 125.00; otherwise the bearish outlook would be valid for most part of this week.

EUR/JPY: The dominant bias on this cross is bullish but the current price action in the market is a threat to the dominant bias. This week and next week, the events on this cross would be largely determined by what happens to the Euro; and therefore a significant weakness in the Euro could make the cross tumble.


Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, June 13, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 15 - 19, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair is still in a bullish mode in spite of the effort of bears to pull price down. There are support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050 and a downside breach of the support lines would result in a new bearish outlook. There are also resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450: an upside breach of those resistance lines would result in further confirmation of the existing bullish mode. However, even if the market moves further upwards, it is more likely that it would become weak by the end of this week or before the end of this month.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish  
On USDCHF, last week was characterized by desperate struggles between the bull and the bear. The bear is still strong enough to check the bull from realizing his objectives and as such, the bias on the market remains bearish. A movement below the support level at 0.9250 would result in a stronger bearish propensity, especially when price closes below the support level and moves further south towards another support level at 0.9200. This is because price could not close below the support level at 0.9250 last week, and a movement below it would mean that the bear is stronger. However, any significant weakness in EURUSD, which may happen before the end of this month, would cause USDCHF to rally seriously.    

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Cable rallied by 300 pips last week, rising from the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and closing above the accumulation territory at 1.5550. Further upward movement is possible, enabling price to reach the distribution territory at 1.5700. However, a strong bearish trend is anticipated on Cable (and other GBP pairs) before the end this week or this month. This bearish trend might also be in force in most of July 2015.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish     
This currency trading instrument has already gone bearish – though the bulls are fighting a losing battle to reverse the trend. Price tested the demand level at 122.50, and then bounced upwards. Though a movement above the supply level at 125.00 could challenge that new bearish signal, the upward bounce could also bring an opportunity to sell short at a better price. In case of further southward movement, price could breach the demand levels at 122.50 and 121.50 to the downside.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
On Friday, June 12, 2015, this cross closed at 139.00.  The outlook on the market is currently bullish, though threatened.  Price needs to move upwards in order to save the bullish outlook. A breach of the demand zone at 138.00 could result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and as such, price should not go below that demand zone; otherwise the recent bullish outlook would be rendered invalid. This cross, plus other JPY pairs, has a high probability of becoming weak by the end of this month and in most of July 2015.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“…The only truth is the chart.  Don't ever listen to the news without looking hard and long at the chart.  The chart is the truth.  Nothing else is the truth.”  – Scott Brown


What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html




Thursday, June 11, 2015

48-hour Movement Trader – Part 2

A Rule-based Swing Trading Method

“I’ve become more and more selective, sometimes to a fault. I used to always want to be in the market. I’ve learned that you’re much better off letting the market prove itself before entering.”*

Snapshot of the Trading Method
Strategy name: 48-hour Movement Trader
Suitability: Good for both full-time and part-time traders
Time frame: Hourly charts
Indicators: SMA 20 and RSI 20
Instruments: Use pairs and crosses that tend to trend well, e.g. EURJPY, AUDJPY, EURUSD, AUDUSD, EURNZD, EURCAD, GBPUSD, GBPCHF, etc
Setup: Go long when the price is above the SMA and the RSI is above the level 60. Go short when the price is below the SMA and the RSI is below the level 40.
Order type: Instant executions
Stop loss: 90 pips from the entry price
Take profit: 180 pips from the entry price
Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2
Position sizing: Please use 0.01 lots for each $2000 (and thus making it 0.05 lots for $10000); or 0.1 lots for each 20000 cents in a cent account (making it 0.5 lots for each 100000 cents)
Breakeven: You may move your stop loss to breakeven after you have gained about 50 pips.
Exit rule: Either the initial stop or breakeven stop or the target will be hit within 48 hours. Close an open position when it is 48 trading hours old – whether negative or positive
Maximum trade duration: 48 trading hours
Survivability: Long term success is possible, even with 50% hit rate

A Few Trade Examples
After the strategy has been set up on a chart, the chart can be moved backwards to see how the past signals unfolded. In addition, you are advised to test the strategy in a simulation mode for at least four months before going live. Testing in simulation mode greatly helps as you experience first-hand how the strategy behaves in the markets. Running real-world simulations is definitely beneficial when compared to mere back-testing. In the trade examples below, spreads were no considered. In each of the accompanying charts, the vertical red line on the right shows where a position was opened, while the vertical red line on the left shows where it was exited.
Example 1: In June 2012, the major trend on the EURNZD was bearish. Our entry criteria were met on June 8, 2012, and a short position was opened. You would notice that there were minor pullbacks and a gap during the course of this trade (which could test our emotions), but it was great to stick to the exit rules while the trade was running. This was a nice trade.
Instrument:
Order: Sell
Entry date: June 8, 2012
Entry price: 1.6280
Stop loss: 1.6370
Take profit: 1.6100
Exit date: June 12, 2012
Exit price: 1.6100
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 180 pips

Example 2: On March 13, 2012, a bullish signal was generated on the GBPCHF. Please note that this cross experienced some consolidation prior to this, especially a few days before this particular signal. This trading method can be used to avoid a range-bound market in that the RSI would neither be above the level 60, nor be below the level 40 when there is consolidation. This trade also worked well.
Instrument: GBPCHF
Order: Buy
Entry date: March 13, 2012
Entry price: 1.4400
Stop loss: 1.4310
Take profit: 1.4580
Exit date: March 14, 2012
Exit price: 1.4580
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 180 pips

Example 3: This example shows a trade that first went in the anticipated direction, failed to reach its target, but which did not go negative. The trade first went in the forecasted direction. Once the price had fallen by 50 pips, the stop loss was adjusted to be equal to the entry price (breakeven). The price hit a major demand zone and was shot up, therefore hitting the then current stop (as distinct from the initial stop). The trade was prevented from turning into a loss.
Instrument: AUDUSD
Order: Sell
Entry date: June 1, 2012
Entry price: 0.9682
Stop loss: 0.9772
Breakeven: 0.9682
Take profit: 0.9502
Exit date: June 1, 2012
Exit price: 0.9682
Status: Closed
Profit/loss: 0 pips

Conclusion
With the kind of trading approach discussed here, signals should be taken with unflagging willingness and you ought not to prevaricate. A trading week invariably proffers certain speculative signals, but speculators ought to possess valid methods for opening and closing trades at the expiration of the speculation period, whether profitable or unprofitable. You would do well to elect a technique that fits you the most and allow intrepidity and be unperturbed enough to stick to your clear-cut rule. In case a trader still anticipates gains to rain down, the realization of this may be nearer than imagined. What should you do? Please commit yourself to trading education and always be on look for a wealth of trading information, and be resolute to leave indelible footprints in the trading world. 


The article is ended by the quotes below:

“Each trade can be viewed as one of many that you will take in your career. If it works, great. If not, that’s okay; you’re still in the game. There will be others.”*


NB: This article was originally written by Azeez Mustapha, and published in Futures Magazine. It is reproduced here with permission from Futures Magazine.

*The quotes at the beginning and the end of this final article are from Dave Landry. He was interviewed in TRADERS’ Magazine December 2014 (www.tradersonline-mag.com). The quotes are not part of the original article. 



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Sirius Minerals to Continue Moving Upwards

Sirius Minerals shares (LSE:SXX) are expected to continue to going upwards in the context of an established uptrend. The price action supports this view as this analysis shows.

From the beginning of January to the end of March 2015, the price moved in a tight consolidation phase, but it broke upwards significantly in April, moving far away from the upper Trendline. The RSI period 14 has stayed mostly above the level 50. There may be corrections or sideways movement along the way, but the price might continue trending upwards till the supply levels at 35.0 and 45.0 are attained. This would happen this year.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Should You Sell Short Bacanora Minerals?

The situation on Bacanora Minerals stock (LSE:BCN) looks dicey, making traders wonder whether they should buy or sell. The recent bias was bullish but the price has been coming down since last month. The trend has turned bearish in the short-term.

In the chart, 4 EMAs are used and they’re EMAs 10, 20, 50, and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. The price has crossed the EMA 50 to the downside; plus the EMAs 10 and 20 are sloping downwards. Sure, day traders and swing traders could short this market, aiming for short-term gains.

However, position traders may not short the market until there is a Death Cross, i.e. the EMA 200 is breached to the downside. If the price fails to breach the EMA 200 to the downside, then it could be the beginning of another long-term bullish journey.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders





Sunday, June 7, 2015

Daily analysis of major pairs for June 8, 2015

The USD/JPY moved sideways last week and it later broke upwards significantly as a result of the employment figures coming out of the US. The upwards break happened in the context of an uptrend and thus, further upward movement is possible this week.    

EUR/USD: The popular Non-Farm Employment Change and other employment figures coming out of the US and Canada caused significant impact on the markets on June 5, 2015. The figures had positive effects on USD and CAD and therefore, other USD pairs and CAD pairs were seriously affected in the near-term. The effect on EURUSD was negative, which was trying to make some bullish attempt last week. There is a bullish outlook on this market unless the support line at 1.1000 is breached to the downside. The NFP has given potential buyers an opportunity to enter the market at better prices, because there could be an upwards bounce. However, a movement below the aforementioned support line could be a beginning of another bearish run. 


USD/CHF: The NFP had a positive impact on the USD/CHF, though the major bias remains bearish. The bearish bias would be in place until the USD/CHF goes above the resistance level at 0.9550. Unless that happens, long trades are not advisable.

GBP/USD: The NFP had a negative effect on this pair, thus driving the already weak price further south. Initially last week, the bulls tried to push the price upwards, but the effect was thwarted by the NFP, resulting in the forfeiture of the bullish gains that were made last week. The price could fall further from here. 

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY moved sideways last week and it later broke upwards significantly as a result of the employment figures coming out of the US. The upwards break happened in the context of an uptrend and thus, further upward movement is possible this week.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY cross moved upwards very strongly last week. This is the kind of movement that benefits traders more, when compared with weak movements. A weekly movement of 500 pips is something that is significant enough to generate a Clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook for this week is bullish.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert

InstaForex Companies Group

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html  

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 8 - 12, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The popular Non-Farm Employment Change and other employment figures coming out of the US and Canada caused significant impact on the markets on June 5, 2015. The figures had positive effects on USD and CAD and therefore, other USD pairs and CAD pairs were seriously affected in the near-term (please see what happened to USD and CAD pairs). The effect on EURUSD was negative, which was trying to make some bullish attempt last week. There is a bullish outlook on this market unless the support line at 1.1000 is breached to the downside. The effect of the US employment figures has given potential buyers an opportunity to enter the market at better prices, because there could be an upwards bounce. However, a movement below the aforementioned support line could be a beginning of another bearish run.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The economic figures released on Friday had a positive impact on this pair, but the bearish outlook is still in place. The bearish outlook is now precarious, as price threatens to break the resistance level at 0.9500 to the upside. Should price succeed in doing this, it would close above the resistance level and that could lead to a ‘buy’ signal. A movement below the support level at 0.9300 would result in reinforcement of the existing bearish bias.  

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market. Last week, bulls made praiseworthy attempt to push price upwards and the price moved above the distribution territory at 1.5400, trying to go towards the distribution territory at 1.5450. But the bullish energy is far outstripped by the selling pressure, which made the bulls to forfeit their gains in the last week. There is a need for Cable to move above the distribution territory at 1.5450 before long trades can make any sense here.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish     
This currency trading instrument has moved upwards over by 600 pips since the middle of May 2015. Last week, price first moved sideways as bears began to challenge bull’s supremacy, but the fundamental figures that came on Friday were a final blow that broke the bears’ obstinacy. This trading instrument could thus continue trending upwards as long as Yen is weak.
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
EURJPY cross moved upward very strongly last week. A weekly movement of 500 pips is something that is significant enough to maintain a Clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Obviously, traders are more benefitted by strong movements when compared to weak movements. The supply zone at 141.00 has been tested. It could be tested again and breached to the upside.  Even if this cross would experience some bearish correction later this week or next week, there could be some initial northward attempt.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“If you diversify, control your risk, and go with the trend, it just has to work.” -
Larry Hite



What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (June 2015)

Gulf Keystone shares (LSE:GKP) are now in a tight equilibrium zone. This is a condition that has been going on since March 2015; and a breakout is expected very soon. There would either be a breakout to the upside or a breakout to the downside.

The ADX period 14 and its DM+ and DM- are closely intertwined – showing no directional movement. The MACD default parameters, has both its histogram and signal lines below the zero line. It is thus more likely that there would be a breakout to the downside.

A breakout to the upside would take the price above the resistance level at 50, leading to a renewed bullish journey. A breakout to the downside would take the price below the support level at 30.00, leading to a clean bearish bias.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders


Churchill Mining Rewards Buyers Generously

Churchill Mining stock (LSE:CHL) has shot skywards significantly. Within the last several months, the price simply moved sideways, creating a strong base which might even prevent serious bearish plunges.

This is a type of market that benefits buyers. The bullish journey started in May 2015, and it ran till the end of that month. In this month, there has been an accelerated movement to the upside; as if a bullet was shot in the sky. While there can be occasional southward corrections, the price action currently points to further bullish movement.

The price is above the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is not far from the overbought territory. Sellers, beware!

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders




Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Seth Klarman: A Winner on Wall Street

 INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 6

“Value investing requires a great deal of hard work, unusually strict discipline, and a long-term investment horizon. Few are willing and able to devote sufficient time and effort to become value investors, and only a fraction of those have the proper mind-set to succeed.”

Name: Seth Klarman
Date of Birth: May 21, 1957
Nationality: American
Profession: Value investor, funds manager, financier and philanthropist

Career
Belonging to the Jewish ethnicity, Seth was born and raised in the US.  He’d worked for Max Heine and Michael Price, which is now part of Franklin Templeton Investments.  In 1982, he founded Baupost Group and the firm grew and grew. Recently, it was estimated that the firm was managing more than $22 billion US dollars. He also authored a book titled: “Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor.” That book – now out of print – is seen as a value investing classic.

In the year 2013, he earned an income of $350 million US dollars and subsequently, he was named among the highest earning funds manager. As of the year 2014, he was worth $1.3 billion US dollars. Sometimes they call him the Warren Buffett of his generation.

Seth is involved in philanthropy and politics, heavily donating to the causes he believes in. He lives in Brookline, Massachusetts, and he’s married to Beth Klarman.

Insights:
  1. Seth makes great returns on his investments despite his unconventional investment methods. Sometimes, he makes up to 50 per cent per annum, by investing in unpopular instruments and looking for undervalued markets. You don’t need to do what most others are doing before you can make money in the markets. No matter how odd your strategies are, they’re OK as long as you make consistent gains. Let people criticize you. Let them say your trading style is weird; you’re fine as long as it works for you.

  1. You don’t need to be a star or a celebrity before you can make money as a trader. There are many people who make money in their private living rooms without the public knowing. In certain cases, most of the so-called professionals who speak at seminars, trading shows, public events, and on radio/television programs aren’t successful traders. Some of the loudest mouths are flops in the markets.  As for Seth, he doesn’t always speak in public and doesn’t usually grant interviews, He keeps a low profile, despite being a market wizard.

  1. The public don’t know when the markets are overbought or oversold and that’s why their timing tends to be wrong. For those who know how to play the markets, outperformance is possible.

  1. According to Seth, successful investors tend to be unemotional, allowing the greed and fear of others to play into their hands. By having confidence in their own analysis and judgment, they respond to market forces not with blind emotion but with calculated reason. Successful investors, for example, demonstrate caution in frothy markets and steadfast conviction in panicky ones. Indeed, the very way an investor views the market and its price fluctuations is a key factor in his or her ultimate investment success or failure. 

  1. Some investors think of buying alone, though at times, it’s better to bet on long-term bearish trend with some success. When one pays too much attention to the possibility of stocks going up without thinking of the possibility the stocks going down, one may easily miss trading opportunities on the downside.

  1. People invariably showcase their inability to profit from long-term investments based on real fundamental figures. Value investing is inherently long-term in nature.

  1. Computer programs and mathematics can do little to help you in the markets. In the end, you’d need to use common sense when handling investments. Unlike many people, think about how you can lose and try to control that. Don’t think only of how much you can gain.

  1. We like to look for simple solutions to intricate challenges: seeking success formulas. Searching for the Holy Grail is common, while that doesn’t exist.

  1. Remember what happened to CHF Pairs on January 15, 2015. When analysts express too much confidence in certain markets, you need to be very careful.

The quote above is from Seth Klarman and the quote below is also from him. The quote ends this piece:

“Investors must try to understand the institutional investment mentality for two reasons. First institutions dominate financial market trading; investors who are ignorant of institutional behavior are likely to be periodically trampled. Second, ample investment opportunities may exist in the securities that are excluded from consideration by most institutional investors. Picking through the crumbs left by the investment elephants can be rewarding. Investing without understanding the behavior of institutional investors is like driving in a foreign land without a map. You may eventually get where you are going, but the trip will certainly take longer, and you risk getting lost along the way.”




What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Super Traders
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