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Thursday, July 31, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 4 - 8, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair has been able to continue its southward journey. The price is now going below the resistance line at 1.3400.  The resistance line is a war zone between the bulls and the bears, for the price would be making some attempts to breach it to the upside. Should the initial resistance line get broken to the upside, another resistance line at 1.3450 would serve as another hurdle for the bulls. A break above the resistance line at 1.3450 would pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend may continue, thus pushing the price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 0.3300.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
As it was forecasted last week, the USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls would like to take their profits, because the price ought to retrace southwards from there. For the bullish journey to continue, the price needs to break that resistance level to the upside, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. Should the price fail to do this, a near-term or medium-term bearish run would  begin.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The Cable dived by about 120 pips this week. The bearish outlook is currently strong, forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price has a great probability of continuing further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively. On the other hand, the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 should act as impediment to any rallies along the way.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
The Greenback is strong; no wonder the USD/JPY rallied, especially in the face of the weakness in the Yen. The market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken to the upside before the northward movement can continue. Otherwise, there could be some deep pullbacks that might take the price towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
The EUR itself is not that strong, but as a result of an exponential weakness in the JPY, the EUR/JPY cross has been able to reject the recent bearish bias on it, paving way for a new bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, the bullish signal would make sense. The price might even go upwards towards the supply zone at 138.00.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The markets are, as it were, behavioral economics in action. And that is what you benefit from as a trend follower.” – Michael Covel

Source: www.tallinex.com


Wednesday, July 30, 2014

The Easiest Ways to Turn Losses into Profits

“Isn’t the promised reward of greater independence, financial freedom, and life choices worth the risk?” – Louise Bedford

Anyone who says trading is easy is telling a lie. Anyone who says success in trading isn’t possible is also telling a lie. Trading is challenging as well as it’s rewarding. The challenges are the blessings that awaken the trading genius in us.

Even, celebrated psychics have made accurate and failed predictions. If I was sure I could predict the future with the utmost certainty, I’d rather buy lotto tickets and enter my lucky numbers. Before the results were announced, I’d start smiling to my bank because I knew I couldn’t lose! By behaving as though we know what the market will do, we tend to think we’re very smart, but the market is kind enough to remind us occasionally that we’re not always smart. If you don’t forget that you’re a student of the market, that’ll be your saving grace.

The multitude finds trading difficult, owing to some preconceived notions. Trading is emotional, for the results of our decisions are seen on our portfolios immediately. Because of certain preconceived notions, inexperienced and undisciplined traders inadvertently maximize their negativity and minimize their positivity: experienced and disciplined traders do exactly otherwise.

Turning Losing Approaches to Winning Approaches
How can you turn losses into profits? Your past trading records can’t be changed but your future trading records can be satisfactory if you determine to stop using trading approaches that bring you frequent losses over a long period of time.

The market has symmetry: if you do something and make money, you’d have lost if you did the opposite. For example, when you sold the AUDJPY and lost 200 pips, that means you could’ve made a profit of 200 pips if you’d bought it. This means you need to stop doing what brings you losses and try to do it the other way round. Let’s give a few examples:

1.      One secret in trading is that less popular trading instruments are more easily predicted than the popular ones. The less popular pairs have very little noise affecting them, and tend to move in more predictable manners. The EURAUD is thus more easily predictable than the EURUSD, since the EURUSD is very popular and therefore, much affected by noise. It’s the noise that causes a lot of false signals on the pair. The CHFJPY is more easily predicted than the USDJPY. If you’re using a trend-following approach, you’ll find that it works far better on less popular currency trading instruments. Counter-trend methods tend to work better on popular pairs; and vice versa on less popular pairs.

2.      If you discover that you’re more prone to making more money on some pair(s) than the other(s), you need to concentrate on the pair(s) that favor your trading system most.

3.      When you discover that you tend to make more money on Forex markets than futures markets, you may want to give Forex markets some serious thought.

4.      People who lose money by setting risk that’s much bigger than reward would surely do themselves a big favor by reversing that: they’ll need to set reward that’s greater than risk. That means better RRR (like 1:2, 1:3 or more).

5.      If failure to use (optimal) stops constantly has adverse effects on your portfolio, please try to start using (optimal) stops as from now. The stop is not a perfect money management tool – no money management tool is perfect – but the eventual benefit outweighs the short-term disadvantage. That’s your life insurance in the markets.

6.      If you lose money by cutting your winners and running your losers, you’ll start making money when you cut your losers and run your winners.

7.      If you make more money on Monday with, say, swing trading, then you’d want to continue doing that. Those who lose on Fridays may want to stop trading on Fridays. If you discover that your hit rate increases on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays, you may want to take trading serious on those days. If you observe that you make money the most in London session, you may want to stop trading the Tokyo Session; and the other way round.

8.      If you lose often when you pick tops and bottoms, then you may want to consider selling at bottoms and buying at tops. If you’ve a strategy that loses too much (always) for long periods of time; if that strategy loses more money in protracted losing streaks than it makes in short-term winning streaks, then you’ll experience your breakthrough if you open opposite orders when the strategy gives you signals, e.g., like going short when it gives a ‘buy’ signal.

Is a higher hit rate part of the solution? A gambler that uses a system with 90% hit rate can still ruin her/his portfolio; whereas a skilled risk manager can have a permanently satisfactory and rewarding career with only 40% hit rate. With some effort, the hit rate can be improved or some losing trades can be avoided by applying filter and/or staying out of a losing streak. Indeed, one way of improving our trading results is to try to avoid some bogus signals as well. We’ve some ways of doing this, but that’ll be the subject of another article.

Conclusion: In summary, the easiest way to turn consistent losing into consistent profiting is to change your trading approaches according to principles that ensure success in the markets. Stop doing what doesn’t work for you and embrace what works for you. If something makes you constant loss, you’ll make money by going contrary to it.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“By matching the amount of risk you take with your tolerance for risk, you can trade more calmly, and that usually means you'll trade more profitably.” – Joe Ross


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Monday, July 28, 2014

Tangiers Petroleum: The Stock Drops Like A Stone

Tangiers Petroleum stock (LSE:TPET) has dropped like a stone as a result of a sudden weakness in the market. The downward break happened with a huge gap that violated recalcitrant demand zones that would normally be extremely difficult to violate with normal price actions.

In the chart, the 4 EMAs that are used have periods 10, 20, 50 and 200 each. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left part of the chart. In June 2014, the 4 EMAs supported the price in a bullish journey, but the significant weakness that started in the same month has resulted in a strong southward backtracking that finally culminated in the latest gap down. The EMAs have started sloping downwards: the movement of the price below the EMA 200 signifies a Death Cross. Long trades are currently not sensible in this market.

While a bounce in the market could be correctly anticipated, it may be short-lived when it happens. The price may thus go further downwards to reach the demand zone at 8.00.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“I have very little emotional involvement with my losing trades. I know that my style of trading will always be having losers, but a very good expectancy… Losers literally are a cost of doing business and unavoidable. Managing the damage is the key. My style of trading is to take small losses and hold for big winning trades.” – Larry Tentarelli

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (August 2014)

Gulf Keystone shares (LSE:GKP) are very weak right now. For several months, the price has been unable to go determinedly upwards in spite of desperate efforts by the bulls.

Again, the price has broken out below the lower Trendline, while the RSI period 14 has gone below the level 50. While this signifies a ‘sell’ signal and the continuation of the bearish outlook on the market, there may be occasional reverting towards the region above the lower Trendline (which may make the price movement look like a false breakout). This occasional situation would be invariably short-lived, as the price goes further south.

The price may test the accumulation territory at 70.00; even before having any chance of transitory or sustained bullish reversal.  

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“A trader needs to learn to maintain emotional stability. If a trader gets excited on winning days, and then goes into a depression on losing days, he may hesitate to take a trade even when he sees an opportunity.”   - Adrienne Tograhie

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (August 2014)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
The recent bias on Gold is bearish, but the bulls have been making serious effort to push the price higher. It is possible that the price could go downwards, but this should be short-lived, for the price would meet some obstruction at the support levels of 1287.00 and 1297.00. In fact, it is highly possible for the price to go upwards determinedly, starting around the middle of August 2014. When this happens, the upward journey could become strong enough to override the current bearish bias, as the expected bullish bias would hold out very long when it is established. The bulls can target the resistance levels of 1330.00 and 1340.00 in the near term.  


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish  
The fate of Silver would be similar to that of Gold in the month of August 2014. This is possible because Gold and Silver are highly correlated (positively), and therefore, a strong upward movement in Gold would also cause Silver to move upwards. This bullish run has a very high probability of starting sometime in the month of August (especially around the middle of the month). The expected bullish run could last for a few months after it finally happens. Any pullbacks along the way would be challenged at the demand levels of 20.2600 and 20.1600. The price could go on towards the supply levels at 21.3500 and 21.5500 consecutively.  



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 28, 2014

The bullish trend on the USD/CHF is now very strong. Interestingly, the market has tested the resistance level at 0.9050, and with the continuation of the trend, the market may go towards the resistance level at 0.9100.

EUR/USD:  The bearish outlook on the EUR/USD is currently very strong. On Friday, July 25, 2014, the price closed at 1.3428, in a serious bearish tone. The price is currently trading below the resistance line at 1.3450. The price may then go towards the support line at 1.3400.


USD/CHF: The bullish trend on the USD/CHF is now very strong. Interestingly, the market has tested the resistance level at 0.9050, and with the continuation of the trend, the market may go towards the resistance level at 0.9100. This is the target for this week, and it is prudent to seek long trades now.  

GBP/USD:  The Cable dropped by up to 130 pips last week, as a result of the perceived weakness on it. The clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart ensures that the probability of the price going further downwards is great. The market may first test the accumulation territory at 1.6950; it may then go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6900.

USD/JPY:  This is a bull market, but the possibility of significant bullish movement would be limited, and therefore, intraday traders and scalpers may want to take their profits at the supply level of 102.00.  This is a level where the price could have a deep pullback, unless the buyers are seriously willing to push the price past that supply level.

EUR/JPY:  As it was mentioned on Friday, the supply zone at 137.00 would challenge the latest rally in the context of a downtrend. The demand zone at 136.50 could be retested: it could even be breached to the downside, as the price goes towards the demand zone at 136.00

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



Friday, July 25, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 28 – August 1, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair has dropped by over 140 pips since last week, testing the support line at 1.3450. The price has tried to bounce upwards from that support line, but the upward bounce is weak. It is still expected that the price would test the support line again, and possibly break it to the downside, going further downwards. The resistance lines at 1.3500 and 1.3550 could do a good job resisting any significant rallies that may jeopardize the existing bias. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The USD/CHF recently achieved a feat – it broke the great support level at 0.9000 to the upside. Apart from that, it has been able to stay above that support level, making more attempts to go further northwards. The next target, which is an obstacle to be breached, is the resistance levels at 0.9050 and 0.9100. While it is possible that the market could challenge those levels, it may be very difficult for it to breach the level 0.9100 to the upside. Therefore the bulls may want to take their profits there.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
It is not a surprise that the Cable has become bearish, following a good bullish run that has just ended. Since the price was unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.7150 (not to mention closing above it), it gave way to gravity. From that distribution territory, the price has gone downwards by roughly 180 pips. The price is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.7000; it could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6900.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
Unlike most other JPY pairs, the USD/JPY did not go seriously downwards because of the strength in the Greenback. The bull is now flexing his muscle, pushing the price upwards; and this has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price may easily test the supply level at 102.00: it may even break it to the upside, going further north.  On the other hand, there is a risk of a sudden pullback, which may take the price towards the demand level at 101.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
This is a strongly trending market – with a marked weakness. The price dived and tested the demand zone at 136.50, after which it bounced upwards. The upwards bounce may be contained at the supply zones of 137.50 and 138.00. From these zones, the price may go downwards again towards the demand zone at 136.50.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“…The fundamental factors suggest what ought to happen in the market, while the technical factors suggest what actually is happening in the market” – Richard Schabacker



Thursday, July 24, 2014

Losing Trades, Winning Trades

“The vast majority of "rich" people I've known have accumulated wealth as a result of taking risks, working very hard, and spending and investing their money wisely over time.” – Joe Ross

Snake-oil vendors promise you that your account would double every month and you can often win 55 trades successively. You’re blown off. After all, who doesn’t like to make consistent profits? Is this kind of lofty promise sustainable?

Traders who entertain lofty thoughts can’t control their emotions on the battlefield of the financial markets. This is possible because when a signals provider or an open position does not go according to their lofty thoughts, irrational emotional outbursts follow. In order to break free from this kind of harmful mindset, we must bear it in mind that no-one on earth is perfect (no not one). We all make mistakes, every one of us. This is why we can’t be a good trader if we think that we or others mustn’t have a negative order in their account history.

We’d be prudent when we don’t expect perfect results in our account history. The reality reveals that we all make some trades that don’t go positive. If anyone can show a valid account history with a minimum of 500 trades which are all positive, then that person is already a god. In reality, there is no speculator that makes only winning trades always. When we shy away from realities – the emotional effect can be satisfactory, but the career would be replete with disillusionment and ire. 

As we surf the markets, we come across price actions we detest or make orders that we regret. However, we can react positively and constructively to these situations. It’s to do with our mindset.

Constant Profits Don’t Come By Chance
Some people think that the majority of traders lose their money. But they lose not because they don’t make profits; they lose because they don’t know how to capitalize on their profits. Losses are alternated by profits. Isn’t that correct? If you said “No,” I’d donate $50 to your favorite charity if you can lose 50 trades in a row. Every trader, including pros and noobs, make both losses and profits, but the pros know how to maximize their profits and minimize their losses.

One research carried out by a big trading company reveals that majority of traders make profits. This is absolutely true. Sadly, as a result of irrational and illogical behavior, most of these traders (who could’ve been victorious) are using negative expectancy methods, like running their losses and cutting their profits; like making their stops wider than their targets.

Less risk comes with less roll-downs; and the other way round. Don’t think you can make higher profits on an individual order without increasing the risk on it. You can’t make an omelet while, at the same time, trying to save the eggs, as one writer puts it.

Is there any benefit when you place 10 trades and you win 7 trades, making $2 per trade and you lose 3 trades, losing $6 per trade? 

It’s easy to make money over the time only when we use positive expectancy methods. Constant profits don’t come by chance. If you can do the opposite of what irrational speculators do, you’ll end up becoming successful. Truly, this is what we want.

This article ends with the quote below.

“The real difference between winners and losers is not so much native ability as it is the discipline exercised in avoiding mistakes.  What separates the amateur from the old pro is that the pro makes fewer mistakes.” - Roy Longstreet 



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Petropavlovsk Shares Shall Crash Further to the Floor

Petropavlovsk Shares (LSE:POG) are a very weak market and it is expected to continue crashing to the floor. The next targets for the bears are located at the support levels of 32.00, 31.00 and 30.00.

In the chart, the price is trying to effect a weak rally, which is a normal thing in a strongly trending market. The price is currently trading below the EMA 21 and the Williams’ % Range is constantly in the oversold territory. The % Range may leave the territory temporarily, but it would still go back towards the oversold territory. The price has been crashing down so far in this year, and it would continue to crash towards the support levels mentioned in the introductory paragraph – the proverbial floor.  

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“We all pay the price of learning how to trade, for me it took years. I learned from Dr. Alexander Elder’s work that the goal of all new traders should be to just survive at first. It is very good advice. Pro’s trade first not to lose big, and then to make money.” – Larry Tentarelli

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Angle - A Bear Market

Angle stock (LSE:AGL) is a bear market, having been caught in a long-term bearish outlook. Granted, there would be occasional short-term rallies, which would be followed by the continuation of the bear market.


The ADX period 14 is around the level 20, showing that the market is currently without momentum. But momentum would soon return to the market. The ADX DM+ is below the DM-, testifying to the bears’ supremacy. The MACD (default parameters) has both its histogram and signal lines going below the zero line. This is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price may go more south, reaching the accumulation territories at 70.00 and 65.00 respectively.

This kind of market is favorable to sellers, but it is better for them to view the bearish run on a long-term basis. Being disturbed about your returns on daily basis may not be in your best interest as treating them as something you get on a long-term basis.

This analysis is ended by the quote below:

“Once I fully accepted that I, nor anyone else, is able to consistently and profitably predict anything, and I turned it over to just trading price, my results improved drastically and my outlook was much, much better.” – Larry Tentarelli

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Monday, July 21, 2014

Sell Signals Generated on Gold and Silver

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold experienced a massive sell-off last week, which rendered the recent bullish bias completely invalid in the market. The market has been very volatile since then, with short-lived victories that are alternated between the bull and the bear. In this kind of market, a wide stop is recommended; plus the most probable direction is southward. Only a movement above the supply level at 1324.00 could make the probability of the bearish direction useless. Meanwhile, the price may reach the demand level at 1293.00. After all, that demand level was tested during the massive sell-off that happened last week.


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish 
There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in this market, which was brought about as a result of the strong weakness that happened last week. It is known that Gold and Silver are highly correlated (positive correlation), and any discrepancy in the direction would create a profitable trading opportunity, especially the one that causes transitory negative correlation. Right now, it is most likely that this commodity would continue its weakness, but the volatility in the market must be taken into consideration. Sellers may want to take some profit at the support level of 20.3300, for this may be an area where the price would bounce upwards significantly.   


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Sunday, July 20, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 21, 2014

The USD/CHF made an effort to test the great resistance level at 0.9000, and the price got retraced after this was done. The market tested that resistance level several weeks ago, but it was unable to break it to the upside.  There is now a need to break the resistance level to the upside, so that the bullish journey might continue.

EUR/USD:  This pair is now very bearish: the price tested the support line at 1.3500 last week and the price bounced upwards temporarily after that. There is a resistance line at 1.3550 (plus another one at 1.3600). These resistance lines ought to act as a great impediment to any rallies that may jeopardize the bearish effort this week. It is possible that the price tests the support line at 1.3500 again and possibly break it to the downside.


USD/CHF: The USD/CHF made an effort to test the great resistance level at 0.9000, and the price got retraced after this was done. The market tested that resistance level several weeks ago, but it was unable to break it to the upside.  There is now a need to break the resistance level to the upside, so that the bullish journey might continue. Should the price fail to do this, things may turn bearish.

GBP/USD:  The inability of the Cable to continue its upward journey has resulted in a serious threat to the recent bullish bias. In fact, short trades have begun to make more sense than long trades in this market and the break of the accumulation territory at 1.7050 would mean that it is completely irrational to seek long trades.

USD/JPY:  This market moved downwards and later got some bullish correction on Friday, July 18, 2014. The price closed at 101.33 – it could go further downwards because there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.

EUR/JPY:  This cross dropped by over 160 pips last week, before it began to experience shallow bullish correction. The price is expected to go again below the supply zone at 137.00. Meanwhile, the supply zone at 137.50 is a barrier to further bullish correction.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group





Thursday, July 17, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 21 - 25, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The dominant bias for this week has been the same for last week – it is unchanged.  The bearish trend in the market is now particularly strong, and it may continue as such. The price may reach the support lines of 1.3500 and 1.3450 within the next several trading days. Meanwhile, there are possible rallies in the context of the downtrend, which may take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.3550 and 1.3600, respectively. Those resistance lines ought to act as a serious impediment to the rallies that may render the bearish bias invalid.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
In contrast to what the EUR/USD is doing, this pair is in an uptrend. It is currently trading above the support level at 0.8950, and it should go further upwards, following the current shallow retracement in the market. However, it is very unlikely that the great resistance level at 0.9000 would be breached to the upside, and thus, the bulls may want to take their profits at that level. Should the price breach the resistance level at 0.9000 and succeed in closing above it, that would signify the continuation of the constant stamina in the market, and a continuation of the bullish bias.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This currency trading instrument has been able to maintain its recent bullish outlook in spite of its present inability to go further upwards in a significant mode. The inability to go further upwards in a significant mode has also resulted in a great risk of the price sliding downwards. In fact, any movement below the accumulation territory at 1.7050 would mean the bullish outlook has been rendered totally useless. For the bullish outlook not to become useless, the price needs to stay above that accumulation territory, and better go upwards again.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The market is still able to maintain its bearish bias; as a result of the strength in the Yen. The bearish outlook is expected to continue, though things may not be a significant as the situation on other JPY pairs. The demand level at 101.00 should, at least, be tested.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
The weakness of this cross, brought about by the weakness in the Euro versus the strength in the Yen, has resulted in a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern. The price is expected to continue going downwards, though the probabilities of transitory rallies and consolidations cannot be ruled out along the way.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Some of the most famous hedge fund managers are renowned for being skilled risk takers from a young age.” – Bruce Bower




Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Are Top Athletes Richer than Top Funds Managers?

“If you understand this way of thinking – that by taking smart risks you can make money over time – it will improve your willingness to take risks.”

What is the answer to the question that forms the topic of this article? The answer is a big NO!

Floyd Mayweather, LeBron James, Cristiano Ronaldo, Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Lewis Hamilton, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Cliff Lee, Usain Bolt, etc. Each of these stars is one of the best in their respective fields, and no doubt, they’ve achieved success and fame that billions of people can only dream of. Yet, each of them is still poor when compared to the highest paid funds managers in the world.

If you want to know what each of the star athletes mentioned here earns, you’d need to do the research yourself. On Buzz.money.cnn.com, Jesse Solomon shows a list of the ten highest paid hedge funds managers in the year 2013:  David Tepper, Steven Cohen, John Paulson, James Simons, Kenneth Griffin, Israel Englander, Leon Cooperman, Lawrence Robbins, Dan Loebb and Paul Tudor Jones.

David Tepper earned $3.5 billion last year. In the year 2009, he earned some $4 billion. He’s currently worth $10 billion. David’s riches are even far more surpassed by those of some market legends like Carl Icahn ($24.5 billion) and George Soros ($26.5 billion). I don’t even want to mention the Wizard/Sage/Oracle of Omaha.

How much do you think a boxing champion like Floyd Mayweather earned? He earned $105 million, thus currently making him the highest paid athlete in the world. Nevertheless, the 10th highest paid hedge fund manager is Paul Tudor Jones who got a paycheck of $600 million in the year 2013. This means that Paul is more than 5 times richer than Floyd in terms of income last year. Paul’s net worth is $4.5 billion.

The highest paid soccer player in the world is now Cristiano Ronaldo, with less than $100 million in total earnings per annum; yet his income is more than 6 times smaller than that of the 10th highest paid funds manager in the world.

Can you now get my point?  The world of trading has produced many billionaires – past and present. These traders are extremely rich, and the incomes of the star athletes pale into insignificance when compared to the earnings of those funds managers.

It’s true that top athletes enjoy heavy glare of publicity and are far more popular because of myriads of fans the world over. Some professional traders aren’t famous because they trade behind their computers in the comfort of their offices. Most people don’t know them, save interested individuals who’re mostly traders/investors.  When many football fans talk about how rich their favorite players are, they are often not aware that some professional traders are far richer than them.

With a worth of $1.1 billion, the New York Knicks are the most valuable team in NBA for the year 2013 (with revenue of $243 million for that year). Real Madrid is the most valuable sports team, worth $3.3 billion (with revenue of roughly $700 million per annum). However, David Tepper, who’s not the richest trader in the world (only the highest paid for the year 2013) is far richer than New York Knicks and Real Madrid combined. According to Jesse, the top 25 funds managers took home $21 billion among themselves last year.

You’ve to congratulate yourself on being a trader, irrespective of your experiences in the markets. The richest traders didn’t become rich overnight, nor did the richest athletes, for most of them had very humble beginnings. By adjusting your trading approaches to achieve everlasting triumph, and by sticking to those approaches, you’ll soon reach financial freedom (though you mayn’t attain the list of the highest paid traders).

The quote above is from Bruce Bower. Another quote from him ends this article:

“Focus on making good risk/reward decisions, keeping losses small, and you will start to become profitable.”


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Oilex Goes Further Upwards, Moving Above the EMAs 10 and 20

Oilex shares (LSE:OEX) go further upwards, moving above the 4 EMAs that are used in this analysis. This is a bull market and the market has resumed its upwards journey, as it should.

In the chart, the 4 EMAs used are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown in the top left part of the chart. All the EMAs are sloping upwards, confirmation the bullish outlook on the market. At the present, the price, which has pulled back into the EMAs 10 and 20, has started going upwards again. A long trade can be sought, while the EMA 50 would be considered as a stop area.

As long as the price does not touch the EMA 50, the long trade would be valid: plus price is expected to reach the distribution territory at 10.00 in the medium term.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“Mind the fact that good decisions are not restricted to knowing what stock to buy. There are far more important decisions a good trader can make, in the absence of knowing what the outcome will be. Selling losers before a mistake turns into a problem is just one of them.” – Dirk Vandycke

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach



Alba Mineral Resources Gets a New Lease of Energy

Alba Mineral Resources stock (LSE:ALBA) has been given a new lease of energy. This means the price has gotten some stamina and should continue going upwards, following the sudden jump up (a significant bullish breakout).

The price broke out significantly from the area of the Upper Trendline. This ended the many months of boring equilibrium phase in the market. Following the jump up in the market, the RSI period 14 has gone into the overbought area, underlying the conspicuous strength in the market. While normal bearish corrections are expected along the way, the market could reach the resistance levels at 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. It could even go beyond them.

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Monday, July 14, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (July 14 - 28, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 101.528
Stop loss: 102.538
Take profit: 99.538

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 95.356
Stop loss: 96.378
Take profit: 93.378

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 94.777
Stop loss: 95.795
Take profit: 92.795

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 113.843
Stop loss: 114.864
Take profit: 111.864

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 138.283
Stop loss: 139.299
Take profit: 136.299

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 173.456
Stop loss: 174.477
Take profit: 171.477

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: July 14, 2014
Entry price: 89.383
Stop loss: 90.409
Take profit: 87.407

Recent performances
December 2013 = 5.0%
January 2014 = 2.1%
February 2014 = 4.5%
March 2014 = -9.7%
April 2014 = 0.0%
May 2014 = 1.0%
June 2014 = -2.0%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 14, 2014

The USD/JPY is still in a bearish mode, although the price is making some rally attempts. The rally may be contained at the supply level of 101.50. This is an area from which the price may go further downwards.

EUR/USD:  The bias on this market is bearish and the price is expected to go further downwards. On Friday, July 11, 2014, the price closed at 1.3606: it would easily test the support line at 1.3600 this week. This week may see the price going below that support line.


USD/CHF: Unless one is a scalper or a day trader, this market is not currently attractive. It seems the bulls and the bears have equal strength (no-one is stronger than the other). The market would need to break either above the resistance level at 0.8950 or below the support level at 0.8900. After this, one would know the direction to take. If the resistance level is breached, one would seek long trades. Reverse the logic for a scenario in which the support level is breached.

GBP/USD:  This market is also a bull market, in spite of the consolidation on it. The consolidation is simply a pause in the market, after which the bullish journey would resume. The price is expected to test the distribution territory at 1.7200 this week.

USD/JPY:  The USD/JPY is still in a bearish mode, although the price is making some rally attempts. The rally may be contained at the supply level of 101.50. This is an area from which the price may go further downwards. When this happens, the price may touch the demand level at 101.00.

EUR/JPY:  The Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart adds to the possibility that this cross would be going further downwards. The demand zone at 137.50 was tested and it could be tested again. The supply zone at 138.00 could also contain any possible rally along the way.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group




Friday, July 11, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 14 - 18, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
Although the EUR/USD remains a weak pair, the direction on it has not been significantly bearish (neither has the price been able to go upwards significantly). However, this kind if market is great for scalpers and intraday traders, but not for swing and position traders. Before the bias can be termed as bullish, the price would need to break the resistance line at 1.3650 to the upside - therefore rendering the bearish bias invalid – or the price may break the support line at 1.3600, therefore adding to the bearish strength. Until then, swing traders may stay aside.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The condition affecting this pair is similar to that of the EUR/USD. The bias is bullish but it is very weak. In fact, a movement below the support level at 0.8900 would render the bullish bias invalid, and therefore, for the bias to continue to make sense, the price needs to break the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside. It should, however, be noted that the price would find it very difficult to breach the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable remains logical. The pause in the upward journey has resulted in a clean sideways movement, after which the upward bias could continue. The bulls have so far refused to allow the price to be pushed seriously. When the bullish momentum returns to the market, the distribution territory at 1.7150 would be breached to the upside, but it is important that the price is able to remain above that territory. Should the price breach the accumulation territories at 1.7100 and 1.7050 to the downside respectively, then the bullish outlook would become illogical.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, and the USD/JPY is supposed to continue going further downwards. This would not be without challenges, since the bulls also would be making effort to push the price upwards. The demand level at 101.00 could be tested; and it would require more bearish effort to violate the demand level, closing below it.  

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
This cross is weak: a result of the weakness in the EUR and the strength in the JPY. The downward movement could continue, making the price to reach the demand zone at 137.00. Meanwhile, the supply level at 138.50 ought to be an impediment to possible rallies along the way.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“I am absolutely satisfied with the markets being my line of work, because it is always interesting and there are constantly new challenging scenarios that need to be analyzed.” – Martin Pring


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Why we want you to become a successful trader

A STEP BETWEEN PENURY AND SOLVENCY

“Once you take the desire to make money out of your trading and put in the desire to do what good traders do, your mindset shifts and allows you to make more good decisions.” – Craig Cobb

Alan* has reached the end of his tether. His handiwork is not enough to feed him with staple foods, not to mention paying his rent. He’s getting old and he needs to get married so that he can start a family, but he can’t even afford the lowest-key wedding ceremony. He wants to gather some money for his wedding. He applies to a chemical factory and he’s hired immediately. It happens that anyone who applies there will be hired immediately because no educational background is required. Besides, the strongest man in the world can’t work in the factory for one year.

Alan discovers that the working conditions are so ignominiously abject. Apart from the fact that you must work for a minimum of 12 hours per day (84 hours per week), with very hard labor, factory safety is zero rating and the pungent chemical itself carries a major health hazard.  If you get injured, you’ll be fired with no first aid. The monthly salary is less than 100 USD. You’ll be penalized for coming late to work and 3 USD would be deducted from your salary per day if you’re absent, even if your absence is due to heath issues.

Alan likes to work hard and he’s hardy, yet he quits the job in less than 3 weeks. The stinking chemical is taking tolls on his health. 

Samson’s wife is dead, leaving 3 children for him. Samson believes the only way to honor the memory of his dearly beloved wife is to take good care of her children. Although his income is not that much, he manages the money well so that the children can attend school and have access to basic balanced diet.

Suddenly, Samson’s boss announces that the firm is no longer making profits and all the employees would be laid off in a month’s time. The firm folds up. Since then, Samson has been looking for a job – any job – without success. He lives in a country where over 40% of able-bodied citizens aren’t employed. The kids are now suffering: they’re out of school and malnourished.

Alisa is a full-time housewife and a responsible mom. She’s resigned from her work in order to attend to her kids, for she’s worried that her kids may suffer some disadvantages if she and her hubby have to stay away from home for economic reasons.

Alisa, however, perceives that her husband’s income would be barely enough to sustain the family. Therefore, she needs to look for some passive income to supplement the family’s income and possibly safeguard their future.

Life is full of risk. Someone loses an election after a huge amount of money has been spent. That doesn’t make it improper to spend money on elections. Someone starts a transportation business and ends up running at loss. That doesn’t mean that transportation business is bad. Someone loses his child after spending a fortune to bring them up and educate them. That doesn’t mean it’s wasteful to take care of one’s children. Someone purchases some valuables that are eventually stolen, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong to buy valuables. A movie or an album is produced, but it does not sell well (a floundering title or a crashing failure). Do we then need to tell people to abstain from movie or album production? A dear Christian brother is ill and hospitalized. We pray fervently for his recovery; yet he dies. Does that mean prayers are useless? Someone’s house is destroyed in a natural disaster, but it doesn’t mean we should be preaching against owning a home. Someone’s marriage crashes after spending huge sums on the union. Does that mean it’s wrong to get married? Someone has an accident with his car. Does that mean one shouldn’t buy a car? The list could go on. Doctors jailed. Ferries capsize. Mines explode, etc. The list of professional hazards out of trading is inexhaustible.

The fact that some people lose in trading doesn’t make it a bad career. This is in a huge contrast to what members of the public believe. If they see one negative trade, they start preaching to people to avoid trading like a plague. These are the people that suffer losses in other areas of life but they don’t see bad things in them.  If you don’t know successful traders, there are many of them.

Many people see trading as being risky. Yet, they lose heavily in other aspects of life. Majority of people start small scale businesses; but statistics shows that over 90% of small scale businesses fail within their first 3 years. Think of an easy job, millions of people are also thinking of doing that job. The economy is already glutted. Generally, the jobs and trades that every Tom, Dick and Harry finds easy to do or start scarcely bring financial freedom. The kinds of jobs that bring real financial freedom – like trading the markets – are what most people abhor and find extremely challenging.

Some educated people are suffering because they believe in ‘I beg to apply’ mentality. After all, that’s the reason why most people go to college. One of the most difficult things one can do now is to seek and get a good job. The number of school leavers would continue to outpace the number of jobs created and the situation has high chances of getting worse.

I know somebody who wanted to get employed in a popular oil company. He was told to get a master’s degree, for he’d only a bachelor’s degree then. He enrolled in a master’s degree program. After he completed the program, he went back to the oil company, only to be told that there was no vacancy for him. While his degrees aren’t a disadvantage to him, must he work for an oil company?  Can you ask Deron Wagner or Anton Kreil to go for master’s degrees before you employ them?

Without financial freedom, the future looks bleak indeed. Most private companies don’t have retirement plans for their employees, even in developed lands. Most companies and organizations now prefer contract staff.  Do you want to put your financial destiny in the hands of your boss?

You may be working right now (or even self-employed), but do you think people will still need your services at old age? If you’re a plumber or a driver, would people still give you jobs to do at old age, when there are numerous young men who’re also competent? Have you even saved enough money for your old age, or do you expect your children to support you then? 

Growing older is no offence:  it’s a privilege. Nevertheless, some employers wouldn’t consider you if you’re above a certain young age. They’ll tell you: “Applicants who’re above the age of 25 need not apply.” Can they ever say that to David Tepper or David Harding?

Nothing ventured, nothing gained; and to do nothing is to become nothing. If you can become a successful trader, you’ll attain financial freedom. You aren’t going to be retired, for you’ll continue to trade at your old age. You’ll trade leisurely and effortlessly and get rewarded. People like Van K. Tharp and Joe Ross are elderly traders and they’re successful.

The older you become and the more the years of experience you gain, the more valuable and the more sought-after you’ll become.

Trading is as serious business. We want you to become a successful trader. While people complain of economic hardships, you’ll only be smiling to you bank.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“…Trading is the art of paying the price for something you want.  It is the art of regarding fear as the greatest sin, and giving up as the greatest mistake.  It is the art of accepting failure as a step toward victory.” - Roy Longstreet 

*Names in this article have been changed


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Quadrise Starts a New Northward Outlook

Quadrise stock (LSE:QFI) has started a new northward outlook, as it rises. The northward outlook could last for several months.

The recent bias was bearish and the price has been extremely volatile – making wide stops sensible in this market. In the chart, the price broke above the EMA 21, gapped upwards and closed above the EMA. The strength of this northward break has also been confirmed by the Williams’ % Range period 20 which is now in the overbought territory. While there could be some transitory southward retracements along the way, the price should go further northward, reaching the supply levels at 45.00, 50.00 and 55.00 successively.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“One of the most powerful things is working out of a previous drawdown to new equity highs. If you did it once, you have the confidence to do it again.” - MeiHua

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Tricor Brings Losses to the Bulls

Tricor shares (LSE:TRIC) bring losses to the bulls as they dived for most part of the year 2014. Even the tight range that followed still showcases the supremacy of the bears.

Anyone who had gone long, or who goes long in this market, will suffer. The ADX period 14 is above the level 60, showing the extant stamina of the dominant bearish bias. The DM+ is clearly above the DM-; another confirmation of the suffering of the bulls. The MACD (default parameters) still has its signal lines below the zero line. Although the histogram is above the zero line, it would be illogical to rely on that.

The price has the possibility of going further downwards, reaching the support levels at 1.00, 0.55 and 0.25 respectively. The only scenario that would bring the possibility of the price going upwards is the condition in which the MACD signal lines and histogram go above the zero line and the ADX DM+ goes above its DM- counterpart.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“So the markets are an excellent place to make money, but unfortunately the makings aren’t that easy.” - Ron Shear

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Monday, July 7, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (July 7 - 21, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 101.880
Stop loss: 100.873
Take profit: 103.873

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 95.451
Stop loss: 94.428
Take profit: 97.426

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 95.387
Stop loss: 94.368
Take profit: 97.368

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 114.042
Stop loss: 113.027
Take profit: 116.027

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 138.626
Stop loss: 137.612
Take profit: 140.612

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 174.547
Stop loss: 173.534
Take profit: 176.534

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: July 7, 2014
Entry price: 89.100
Stop loss: 88.083
Take profit: 91.083

Recent performances
December 2013 = 5.0%
January 2014 = 2.1%
February 2014 = 4.5%
March 2014 = -9.7%
April 2014 = 0.0%
May 2014 = 1.0%
June 2014 = -2.0%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for July 7, 2014

The Cable is still facing a big challenge around the price territory at 1.7150. However, the market is expected to go further upwards as a result of the strong northward bias on it.

EUR/USD:  As it was said in the last forecast, this pair has already assumed a new bearish bias, going downwards. Right now, the price closed below the resistance line at 1.3600. The target for this week is at the support line at 1.3550; and with the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market makes it is logical that that the price would go further downwards.


USD/CHF: After much effort from the bulls, the USD/CHF has turned bullish, going further north. The resistance level at 0.8950 has been challenged and it would be breached to the upside as the bullish energy continues. But it is unlikely that the price would also breach the great resistance level at 0.9000 to the upside; therefore buyers may want to take their profits around that resistance level.

GBP/USD:  The Cable is still facing a big challenge around the price territory at 1.7150. However, the market is expected to go further upwards as a result of the strong northward bias on it. Should this happen, the price would go towards the distribution territory at 1.7200.

USD/JPY:  This is a bull market, and the price ought to go further upwards. Nevertheless, the bullish journey is not without difficulties. As long as the price is above the demand level at 101.50, the bullish outlook is sensible.

EUR/JPY:  This market is not yet attractive, and one may do well to abstain from it until there is a clean directional bias in the market. The EUR is weak and the Yen is also weak, but one must be strong than the other so that a direction can be determined.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



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