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Monday, September 29, 2014

Trading Signals on the AUD Pairs (September 29 - October 23, 2014)


Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 95.417
Stop loss: 94.406
Take profit: 97.407

Instrument: AUDUSD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 0.87171
Stop loss: 0.86163
Take profit: 0.89162

Instrument: EURAUD
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 1.45547
Stop loss: 1.46559
Take profit: 1.43561

Instrument: AUDCAD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 0.97262
Stop loss: 0.99249
Take profit: 0.97254

Instrument: AUDCHF
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 0.82937
Stop loss: 0.81918
Take profit: 0.84918

Instrument: GBPAUD
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 1.86314
Stop loss: 1.87339
Take profit: 1.84339

Instrument: AUDNZD
Order: Buy
Entry date: September 29, 2014
Entry price: 1.12271
Stop loss: 1.11261
Take profit: 1.14261

NB: 1% per trade is risked. All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired. A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 29, 2014

After some hesitation, the USD/CHF was able to go upwards, breaking the support level at 0.9500 to the upside. With further northward movement, the pair may reach the resistance level at 0.9550. That is the first target for the week.

EUR/USD:  This currency trading instrument closed at 1.2683 on Friday, September 26, 2014; on a bearish note. The price is now below the resistance line at 1.2700, making attempt to reach the support line at 1.2650. This trading instrument would continue its weakness as long as the USD is strong. That is the initial target for the week.


USD/CHF: After some hesitation, the USD/CHF was able to go upwards, breaking the support level at 0.9500 to the upside. It may be thought that the pair could experience a large pullback whenever the USD becomes weak suddenly; but the fact is that the market would continue going upwards as long as the EUR/USD is weak. With further northward movement, the pair may reach the resistance level at 0.9550. That is the first target for the week.

GBP/USD:  The perpetual weakness in the GBP, coupled with the perceived strength in the USD, has enabled this market to go bearish. This has led to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart and it is no longer sensible to seek long trades at this time. More weakness may enable the price to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6150 this week.

USD/JPY:  This is a bull market – a result of the stamina in the Greenback. The Greenback is, in fact, one of the strongest currencies among the majors right now. The supply level at 109.50 has already been tested, and the price may later break it to the upside, closing above it. On the other hand, the risk of a pullback still exists.

EUR/JPY:  The reality in this market is that it is weak: the bearish bias has been confirmed and there is a possibility that the market may continue to be weak, reaching the demand zone at 138.00.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



Defense is Better than Attack in Trading


“Defensive strategic trading clearly is more successful in the long run than you might think! There will always be people who briefly achieve huge returns using daring maneuvers, but in the long term the strategist with an approach based on sound statistics will be successful…”

When an advancing army anticipates attack, they tend to prepare themselves so that they can fend off the attack successfully. When a state of war seems hopeless, an intelligent and experienced general would tell his army to wait and let the enemy attack first, while they prepare for the attack. Defense is better than attack. In football, when a team is too desperate to score goals at all costs, their defense may be unknowingly put in disarray and this may enable the opposing team to utilize the sudden weakness and score a goal, thereby frustrating the team’s effort.

The same is true of trading, because the most important goal is not to lose our money. When we achieve the goal, there would be times when profits would come normally. We not need to bury our heads in the sand, ignoring reality. We would need to come to grips with the fact that we may not survive the markets permanently until we learn how to deal with the uncertainty of the markets. The way risk is handled clearly differentiates between a market veteran and a novice. A market veteran does not react negatively during a loss; whereas a novice does.  A veteran waits for another trade after some negativity – she/he does not overreact when there is loss.

If we feel that all our trades will be profitable, we might later be surprised that we are not right. The market does not ask for our approval before it turns against us. The fly does not ask for our permission before it perches on us. Negativity happens in all ventures. The ultimate action we can take is to tame the risk and not gamble our funds away – as many traders do.

The quote above is from Rene Wolfram. The quote below is also from him, (Based on his interview in Tradersonline-mag.com, September 2014). The quote below ends this article: 

“Most traders think topics like mental coaching or risk management are boring, but that’s exactly where the problem is: These things are the most important ones in trading. And there’s another problem: Many traders know trading approaches that work but are simply incapable of implementing them on a regular basis.”




Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (October 2014)

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
This market became bearish in July 2014, and since then the price has dived by over 1300 points. The bias is still very bearish – characterized by great volatility in the market. This shows that there is a serious struggle between the bull and the bear. The price has tested the support level at 1206.00, and with more weakness in the market, the price may breach the support level to the downside, going towards another support levels at 1205.00 and 1204.00 respectively. The bull – though currently fighting a losing battle – may eventually succeed in pushing the price upwards towards the resistance levels at 1235.00. Should the price rally above that resistance level, it may be a serious threat to the bearish outlook.


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish  
Since July 2014, Silver has dropped by over 4000 points, going downwards with magnanimous alacrity and reaching as low as the demand zone at 17.3000. This sustained trending movement shows the wonderful advantage of running one’s winner and truncating one’s negativity. It also shows that in a strong trend like this, short-term counter-trend movements invariably proffer new opportunities to join the trend at bargain prices. Further movement to the south may cause the aforementioned demand zone to be breached to the downside, allowing the bear to target another demand zone at 17.0000. However, it ought to be repeated that there is a high possibility of a strong rally around the months of November/December 2014.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 29 – October 3, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The bearish journey of this pair has continued unabated; in a slow and steady manner. In the past several weeks, the market has been breaking one support line after the other and it is currently trading below the resistance line at 1.2800. Further bearish journey might cause the price to test another support lines at 1.2700 and 1.2650 successively. Along the way, there is also a risk of large rallies – which can be brought about by sudden weakness in the Greenback. The probable rallies can take the price towards the resistance lines at 1.2900 and 1.2950.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The USDCHF pair has been achieving incredible feats by breaking one resistance level after the other. The pair has succeeded in closing above the support level at 0.9400, going further upwards. As long as the USD is strong (and the EURUSD is weak), the pair would be going upwards. There are possible targets at the resistance levels at 0.9500 and 0.9550; whereas the support levels at 0.9350 and 0.9300 should act as barriers to southward attempts along way.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
There is a bullish signal in this market, as long as it stays above the accumulation territory of 1.6300. However, the bullish signal is very precarious because of the bears’ effort to drag the price further downwards. The market is largely moving sideways and thus, a breakout is expected. A breakout to the upside may cause the price to test the distribution territories at 1.6450 and 1.6500, while a break to the downside would cause the price to test the accumulation territories at 1.6200 and 1.6150 respectively.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is still strong, given the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The USDJPY can still go further north, but long orders should be handled with caution because the possibility of a determined bearish correction is now very high. While the USDJPY might manage to reach the psychological supply level at 100.00, any exponential weakness may cause the market to retrace southward towards the demand levels at 108.00 and 107.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
This cross is still generally bullish, but the pullback that has occurred since last week has made the price action dangerous for the bulls. With a movement below the demand zone at 138.50, the bullish bias would be rendered completely invalid. The price needs to break the supply zone at 140.50 to the upside so that the bullish trend can resume; otherwise we may expect the bias to turn completely bearish.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“In financial markets too, there are underlying forces an investor or trader has to know and needs to respect in order to be successful.” – Dirk Vandycke




Tuesday, September 23, 2014

You Can Continue Holding Kibo Mining Shares and Get Kicked in the Butt

Kibo Mining shares (LSE:KIBO) are very weak, and they would continue to be weak. Unless one goes short, anyone who holds the shares, thinking things would soon go bullish, would end up being kicked in the butt. Most tend to think that all that matters is the correct picking of stocks, but you can be correct in your forecast and still sustain negativity. Kibo Mining is a good example of this.

The market is very volatile, with the sellers gaining the upper hands.  4 EMAs are used here – and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown in the top left part of the chart. It can be seen that the EMAs are all sloping downwards, testifying to the power of the bears. The EMA 200 is a great barrier to any bulls’ machinations along the way, for the price would be bearish as long as it is below the EMA 200.  

Rallies have invariably been opportunities to sell-short when the price is a kind of high. For new sellers, constant selling opportunities are already existent in this market. Where we plan to plant a cacao tree, a cacao tree has grown there naturally.

While enjoying their gains, the sellers are always suspicious of what the buyers may do. The quail is so suspicious that it appears as though it had eyes all over its body.  Irrespective of this, the price may drop further, whether reluctantly or willingly, towards the accumulation territories at 1.87 and 1.85 successively.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“My old dad used to say, “All you need to know is whether the market is going up or down, the rest is just detail.” The best advice is always simple and the more it annoys the more likely it is to be useful.” – Clem Chambers

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Long-term Trading Forecast on Alibaba Group

Here is a long-term forecast on Alibaba Group Holding stock (NYSE:BABA). This is a new market – one of the newest on earth and the media is full of the hype. It is better to speculate on this market with the aim of making long-term gain that is bigger than loss, while also considering potential pullbacks along the way. It is important that you make enough profits to cover the costs of trading; otherwise you would be fighting a losing battle.

In the chart, the market made a futile attempt to rally, but got pushed down a bit. Since then, the market has been in a kind of consolidation, bringing no big loss to the bull or the bear. The conspirator who dug the pit only dug a shallow one. The victim who fell into the pit has not broken any limbs. We should be thankful for small mercies.  The price is still within the 2 Trendlines, but a break to the upside is more likely when the market begins to trend.

A break to the downside could be temporary, thus turning out to be a false breakout. The RSI period 14 is below the level 40, showing that the market is currently consolidating to the downside.  In the long-term, bearish attempts my make the price go towards the demand zones at 85.00 and 80.00. Meanwhile, bullish effort my drive the price upwards, enabling it to reach the supply zones at 98.00 and 100.00 within the next several months.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“When it comes to money and investing, we're not always as rational as we think we are - which is why there's a whole field of study that explains our sometimes-strange behavior.” - Cathy Pareto

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Sunday, September 21, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 22, 2014

The EUR/USD pair is still trending downwards. On Friday, September 19, 2014, the price closed at 1.2829, on a bearish note. It is possible that the price would test the support line at 1.2800 very soon.  

EUR/USD:  The EUR/USD pair is still trending downwards. On Friday, September 19, 2014, the price closed at 1.2829, on a bearish note. It is possible that the price would test the support line at 1.2800 very soon.  This week, there is also the risk of a significant rally in a case of a sudden weakness in the USD.


USD/CHF: This pair is still trending upwards, significantly on a bullish note. The price is now trading above the support level at 0.9400 and with more stamina in the market, the price could reach the resistance level at 0.9450. Meanwhile, the risk of pullback may cause the price to test the support level at 0.9300.

GBP/USD:  This currency trading instrument generated a bullish signal last week, but a sudden weakness in the market has caused the price to drop, testing the accumulation territory at 1.6300. The market ought to rally from here so that the bullish outlook would continue to remain valid; otherwise the bullish outlook would become useless as the market trades below the accumulation territory at 1.6250.

USD/JPY:  The USD/JPY has been in one of its strongest rallies in recent times. The market is currently going above the demand level at 108.50, making attempts to test the support level at 109.00. Nevertheless, there is a great risk of a serious pullback, which may take the price towards the demand levels at 108.00.

EUR/JPY:  This cross is also strong in the long-term, but weak in the near-term. The price ought to go upwards from here; otherwise a movement below the demand zone at 139.00 would pose a large threat to the extant bullish scenario. 

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group




Saturday, September 20, 2014

The Costliest Assassination in World’s History

The most expensive assassination in world’s history did not happen in North America or Asia or on any other continent apart from Europe. The assassination was carried out by someone who was often considered to be too weak, small in stature, and sickly to fire a shot that would be heard throughout the whole world.  It was carried out by someone who came from an extremely poor and impoverished family; a family that saw most of its offspring die in infancy. The assassin, however, was not executed, though arrested. He died of a natural cause – TB. 

Yes, a gaunt hound could hunt down a squirrel. Most viewed the assassin as a villain, but certain people saw him as a hero. A plaque still commemorates his action and his weapon can still be found in a museum. The history of the First World War will never be complete without mentioning his name. The reason why his act of assassination was the costliest in world’s history would be mentioned at the end of this article.

The assassin was Gavrilo Princip.

Princip lived from 1894 to 1918. Since his folks could not cater for him, he went to live with his elder brother in Sarajevo. After some studies, he joined a nationalist movement which favored a union of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia. He wanted to join an irregular Serbian guerrilla unit whose aim was to achieve Bosnia-Herzegovina independence from Austro-Hungary; but his application was declined. He also made another attempt, yet he was rejected because of his fragile and weak stature. As a result of this, it was thought that he decided to prove himself by doing something extraordinarily brave.

Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his pregnant wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were invited by General Oskar Potiorek, Governor of the Austrian provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Archduke Franz Ferdinand accepted the invitation, though he knew it was dangerous to do so. Meanwhile, a group of conspirators, including Princip had been instructed to kill the Archduke and then commit suicide. They were given some poison and weapons. When the Archduke and his wife arrived, their car began to speed along the Appel Quay. One of the conspirators, Muhamed Mehmedbašić became afraid and thus failed to carry out his plan. Another one, Nedeljko Čabrinović was bold enough to throw a bomb at the royal car. The royal car was driven faster by its driver, who saw the bomb flying toward them. This made the bomb injure the next car following the royal car. The two VIPs inside the car were badly injured.  The attacker tried in vain to commit suicide: it became apparent that the poison he was given was not effective, and thus, he was arrested.

The Archduke was given a grand reception, after which he decided to visit Čabrinović's victims in the hospital. General Oskar Potiorek wanted him to take another route, but the royal driver was not advised of this, so he turned into Franz Josef Street. Gavrilo Princip was around a café when he saw the royal car coming. The driver came back to his senses and tried to reverse the car. However, before he could go out of that place, Princip took the opportunity, moving closer to them. The distance between him and the royal car was 1.5 meters. He shot two times into the car, hitting the Archduke in the neck and the pregnant Sophie in the abdomen. They both died shortly after.

The pistol used by Princip was wrested from him. He was arrested at the scene and taken into custody. Under the then law, he was too young to be sentenced to death, and he therefore bagged a maximum of 20 years of imprisonment. He was incarcerated in harsh conditions which even became worse as the First War World I raged.

On 28 April, 1918, Gavrilo Princip died of tuberculosis. That was the end of the perpetrator of the costliest assassination in the world.

What made Princip’s action so expensive? Well, there was a series of events that led to the War – one of them was the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand (which was the last straw that broke the camel’s back). That very assassination was used as an alibi for the Great War. When Princip’s colleagues were nabbed, some members of the Serbian military were implicated. Austria-Hungary therefore issued an ultimatum, making some demands that could not be totally met by Serbia. Because of this, one thing led to the other and nations began to declare war against nations. The War lasted from 1914 to 1918. 

What was the cost of that war? About 38.8 million people were dead, missing and wounded.  The financial cost of the War was far more than $186 billion. These affected Allied and Central powers. War is definitely not a good thing!

Do you know any costlier assassination? 






Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

He Stabbed His Own Wife More Than 500 Times

The murderer mentioned above is Robert Bailey. His murdered wife was a 36 year old former legal secretary who once referred to her husband as being like one of their 3 children. The husband aged 46 at the time, was a bus driver.

The incident happened on September 11, 2008, and it was preceded by an argument in the kitchen. The woman was stabbed more than 500 times. Being stabbed in the kitchen of their Locker Park suburban home, that attack and struggle were protracted. Bailey made use of a double pronged carving blade and many knives on Elaine, his poor wife. There were also many penetrating and superficial wounds to her body.

The woman got most of the stabs while she was still breathing; though she received more stabs after she died.  The woman suffered severe agonies before her death.  There were at least, 126 penetrating wounds to her face and head, with most around her eyes. At least, 4 stabs went through her eye sockets into her underlying brain.

The blows, stabs, punctured and incised wounds were inflicted with a measure of force. About two stabs entered her chest – one penetrating her heart and the other went through her lung.  Additionally, her arms and hands were seriously stabbed as she struggled to defend herself. The pattern of the mutilation was bizarre. The woman died in an unthinkable situation.

At the time of her murder, her body was so mutilated to the extent that her parents, along with authorities, were only able to recognize her body by her dental records. 

After he was satisfied with the way he killed his wife, Bailey left for a neighbor’s house, wearing a Liverpool FC shirt covered with blood. The neighbor was Glynis Boyle. He banged on her window with a foot-long knife he had in his hand. The neighbor saw someone that looked maniac and possessed, swearing oaths. She had to call 999 and escaped into her garden. Meanwhile, he was able to enter her house stabbing her furniture and causing additional damages that were worth £20,000. When police officers came, they escorted Mrs. Boyle to safety. They saw Bailey watching television, grinning: knife in hand.  He had smashed a window to get to one officer that was escorting Mrs. Boyle to safety, though he did not leave the house.

When armed officers came to him to arrest him, he stabbed himself in the chest, piercing his diaphragm.  He was however taken to the hospital and treated.

When they got to Bailey’s house, they saw his dead wife in the kitchen with knives scattered around her body. The murder scene was cordoned off

At Liverpool Crown Court, the emotionless man later accepted that he murdered his own wife. He was jailed for life with a minimum of 20 years imprisonment.

The victim’s folks stated that they thought justice had been done as Robert began his life imprisonment for the morbid and horrifying killing of their precious daughter.  Though the dead cannot come back, Elaine would continue to live through her 3 kids who are now being cared for by Stuart, Elaine’s brother.

The folks received condolence letter and cards; which proved that she was loved very much and sorely missed by those who knew her. They showed appreciation for the support they also received from their local community and churches.

They said what remained for them to do was to continue staying together as a family and to mold their kid’s lives in the best possible way.

Later it was reported that the man would be allowed to appeal his jail sentence.  The accused believed the life sentence was too harsh and 20 years too long. He was granted leave to appeal against the Liverpool Crown Court’s pronouncement at the Court Of Appeal.

The reason why he was granted the chance to appeal the case was because of his mental condition. It was thought that the nature of the killing was unusual and the court did not know the fact about his mental condition before the sentence. His psychiatric report was not shown prior to the judgment. This would allow for further investigation.

Bailey had suffered from depression and was treated for it. Nevertheless, he was not thought of being able to commit such grievous crime. He did not know why he lost his sanity and reasoning, but he admitted that the stabs were brutal. He used to have breakdown. His mother committed suicide when he was 27.

Bailey, who has been suffering from behavioral and learning disorders, said he always argued with his wife, for she used to look down on him; plus she used to act like the boss of the house, so he was often afraid of his her. He claimed he lost control completely on the day he killed his wife.

The coupled got married in 1990 and they seemed happy, although Elaine’s mother commented that Bailey had been jealous of the kids since their last kid was born. The kids are two boys and a girl who has Down’s Syndrome. Elaine’s mother conversed on phone with her daughter on the day she was going to be killed. Elaine talked ok, but when she was asked how her husband was doing, she replied that she was annoyed with him for not taking his tablets, but she hoped that he would be alright in 6 days’ time.


Adapted from these sources:



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Friday, September 19, 2014

Signals on the JPY Pairs (September 19 - October 9, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 108.795
Stop loss: 109.811
Take profit: 106.811

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 97.615
Stop loss: 98.653
Take profit: 95.654

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 99.243
Stop loss: 100.261
Take profit: 97.259

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 115.927
Stop loss: 116.926
Take profit: 113.929

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 139.922
Stop loss: 140.942
Take profit: 137.944

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 178.026
Stop loss: 179.042
Take profit: 176.043

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: September 19, 2014
Entry price: 88.583
Stop loss: 89.613
Take profit: 86.615

NB: 1% per trade is risked. All open trades are closed after the duration of the signals has expired. A breakeven stop is used after a 70-pip gain and a trailing stop of 100 pips is used after a gain of 170 pips.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Thursday, September 18, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 22 - 26, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The bias on the EURUSD is still very bearish irrespective of the shallow rally the market is currently experiencing. In this market, rallies have proffered opportunities to sell short in the context of a downtrend. The continuation of the bearish bias may force the price to test the support line at 1.2800. Along the way, serious bullish breakouts may be contained at the resistance lines of 1.3000 and 1.3050. Any movement above these resistance lines would signify the beginning a new bullish journey.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This currency trading instrument is in a bullish mode – with a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bulls have always been interested in pushing the pair further upwards, but this is not without stubborn challenges from the bears. The challenges have resulted in high volatility in the market, and the price may still manage to reach the resistance level at 0.9500, which is the target for next week (provided that the USD continues to be strong).

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair - unlike its EURUSD counterpart - has broken upwards in favor of the bulls. In fact, the price action in the market has resulted in an established bullish signal and short trades are no longer rational. The market is now moving above the accumulation territory at 1.6300, going towards the distribution territory at 1.6450. As long as the market is above the aforementioned accumulation territory, the bullish signal is considered valid.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
This is a strong bull market which has been going upwards since July 2014. Since then, the perpetual weakness in the Yen has enabled this pair to move north by over 750 pips. The same weakness in the Yen has enabled most other JPY pairs go north significantly. This market looks very overbought and a reversal is imminent, but is not advisable to go against the trend until that reversal has taken place. The market can still go further north; testing the supply levels at 109.50 and 110.00. Should the Yen gain any considerable stamina, the market may plunge towards the demand levels at 107.00 and 106.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
It is not a surprise that the EUR, which is weak somewhere else, is strong versus the JPY. The weakness in the JPY is the basic reason for the bullish momentum that is driving this market upwards. From the demand zone at 136.00, the price skyrocketed above the demand zone at   140.00, going further upwards. This is a movement of over 440 pips since last week. The market is overbought, but it is still seen as being capable of reaching the supply zones at 150.50 and 160.00 respectively. Nevertheless, the downside risk is now very high and any sudden strength in the Yen could make the price tumble, reaching the demand zones at 139.00 and 138.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"With love and patience, nothing is impossible for a dedicated trader." -- Old Trader


Tuesday, September 16, 2014

African Minerals Crashes!

African Minerals shares (LSE:AMI) have crashed – dropping significantly for the most part of the year. The bearish bias is so strong that anyone that goes long in this market would be sliced up.

In the chart, the ADX period 14 is above the level 50, showing a very powerful trend. The DM+ is below the DM-, meaning that the sellers have upper hands as compared to the buyers. The MACD (default parameters) has its signal lines below the zero line. This is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the upper hands of the sellers are significant indeed. As long as the signal lines are below the zero line, it would be irrational to take any bullish action.

The price is supposed to continue going further south, reaching the accumulation territories at 16.00 and 15.00 successively.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“Winning traders manage risk…  Managing risk not only protects your account balance, but it also helps you control your emotions.” – Joe Ross

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Aminex Suddenly Makes Substantial Gains

Aminex stock (LSE:AEX) has made sudden and substantial gains, breaking upwards from a long-term base that was building for several months. This is the kind of signal that professional speculators want to trade!

The price is now trading far above the EMA 21 as the Williams’ % Range period 20 has already gone into the overbought territory. That does not mean the price would break down from here: it means the trend is strong and pullbacks would be temporary. That base is now a great support level in the market, while the market has the potential to go further upwards, irrespective of pullbacks that may be experienced along the way.

Eventually, the price could reach the resistance levels at 3.000 and 3.500. Yes, more gains would be made by the bulls.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“The key to success is to adamantly refuse to accept limits. Relentlessly apply your focus. Dig in your heels when people tell you it can't be done.” – Louise Bedford

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Monday, September 15, 2014

Gold and Silver Prices Remain Significantly Bearish

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold has been trending downwards in a significant mode since the middle of July 2014. From the supply level at 1344.80, the price has tested the demand level at 1225.50. This is a downward movement of close to 2000 points. The weakness in the market remains valid and the price may continue moving further downwards in spite of rallies that come its way occasionally. In fact, those rallies are really short-selling opportunities in the context of a downtrend. The price may end up reaching the demand levels at 1220.00 and 1210.00 successively. Nevertheless, this weakness is not going to last forever, for there is no such thing as an everlasting trend. It is likely that Gold would rally sustainably around November or December 2014.


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish  
Silver is also a bear market, having been dropping downwards since the middle of July 2014. From the resistance level at 21.5400, the price has gone south long enough to test the support level at 18.4200. This is a downward movement of more than 3100 points. Now, it is possible that the downwards trend might continue, breaking further levels and reaching the support levels at 18.3000 and 18.1000 respectively. The bears cannot hold sway for ever – for a northward turnaround is expected around November or December 2014.


  
Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 15, 2014

The EUR/JPY continues to be strong as a result of the weakness in the Yen and further bullish determination in the Euro. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market is very conspicuous and one supply zone after the other has been breached. Right now, the price is moving above the demand zone at 139.00, going towards the supply zone at 140.00.

EUR/USD:  This pair is still bearish in the long term, but bullish in the near term. The bulls have shown their determination to keep on making attempts for the price to go further upwards in spite of serious battering from the bears. A movement above the resistance line at 1.3050 would mean the end of the bullish outlook and the beginning of the bearish outlook. On the other hand, the price may become weak and go towards the support line at 1.2850. That is in the case when the bearish move is once again renewed.

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument closed at 0.9332 (Friday, September 12, 2014); on a bullish note. There is an immediate support level at 0.9300, while the price is expected to go further north this week, testing the resistance level at 0.9400.


GBP/USD:  Just like its EUR/USD counterpart, the Cable is also showing some determination to go further upwards, although the long-term bias is bearish. Any movement above the distribution territory at 1.6300 would mean the beginning of a new bullish journey, but the price may fall back towards the accumulation territory at 1.6150.

USD/JPY:  This pair is strong and it is now above the demand level at 107.00. The first target for this week would be reached at the supply level of 107.50.

EUR/JPY:  The EUR/JPY continues to be strong as a result of the weakness in the Yen and further bullish determination in the Euro. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market is very conspicuous and one supply zone after the other has been breached. Right now, the price is moving above the demand zone at 139.00, going towards the supply zone at 140.00. That is our target for this week. 

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



Thursday, September 11, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 15 - 19, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The EURUSD has been consolidating recently – neither going upwards nor downwards significantly. A breakout is expected very soon, which may likely be in the direction of the dominant bias. This southward break may take the price towards the resistance levels at 1.2850 and 1.2800 successively. However, a rally above the resistance lines at 1.3000 and 1.3050 could mean the beginning of a new bullish journey.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
As long as the EURUSD is weak, the USDCHF is bound to be strong. The resistance level at 0.9400 is about to be tested and should that happen, a breach of that resistance level could cause the price to nose towards another resistance level at 0.9450. Along the way, a sudden pullback may also try to take the price towards the support level at 0.9250.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This currency trading instrument remains bearish when looking at the big picture, but the recent rally in the market can pose a threat to the big picture, especially if it continues. As long as the price is under the distribution territory at 1.6350, the bearish outlook is valid. Only a break above that distribution territory would signify a new bullish signal. Further bearish continuation can push the price towards the accumulation territory at 1.6100, which was previously tested.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
As it was forecasted, this market was able to move above the demand levels at 106.00 and 106.50. The price is currently trading above the demand level at 107.00 and the next target could be the supply levels at 107.50 and 108.00. There are barriers to bears’ machinations at the demand levels at 106.50 and 106.00. The bullish signal remains valid as long as the market is above these demand levels.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
The weakness in Yen and the bullish determination in the EUR have enabled this cross to shoot skywards. In fact, the skyward movement has resulted in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. From the demand zone at 136.00, the price has skyrocketed by over 260 pips (most other JPY pairs are also bullish). With more weakness in the Yen, the price might reach the supply zone at 140.00 soon.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading has a poor image among the public, which I don’t think it deserves... Good trading principles are also helpful in normal life.” - Rene Wolfram



  

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Tom Hougaard: A Superstar Trader/Investor

LEARN FROM THE GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 52

“I have been taught the emotional pain of large losses when my ego wanted me to trade too big, and the pain of missing a huge move due to fear of entering a trade.” – Steve Burns

Born in 1969, in Denmark, Tom Hougaard later moved to the United Kingdom in 1992, where he obtained BA and MSc in Economics and Finance. He worked at Chase Manhattan Bank, but left the bank in the year 2000 to manage his personal portfolios. After that, he was employed by a brokerage company.

In 2002, he was chief market strategist at city index where he made copious market comments on popular media. He’s also handled trading presentations and written many articles. In 2009, he started a website named “WhichWayToday” (whichwaytoday.com) where he posts premium articles, trading commentaries and runs a live trading room. The performances of the trading room have been very impressive.

Tom is a successful trader who’s been showing others how to make money through his trading room services, articles and others. He owns a website named TraderTom.com. On that website, one would see some wonderful articles that reveal some of the greatest trading truths.

Lessons
These are some of the lessons you can learn from Tom:

1.      One of the fastest ways to make money in the markets is to copy what successful traders are doing, either by social trading or trading rooms services or signals strategies services.

2.      There are money management, trade management, and risk management styles that are at variance with the mainstream ideas; yet they’re successful in the markets.

3.      The extremely popular analytical tools like Fibonacci extension and retracement levels, Gann’s line and grid, Elliot Waves, Andrew Pitchfork and some others are far from being the Holy Grail. In fact, many traders lose money with those popular tools in spite of them being venerated by the so-called gurus. The secrets to success don’t lie in those analytical tools. Rather the secrets to success lie in what most traders can’t do.

4.      Our mind is our enemy! This is true in most critical aspects of life as well as trading. We want good results and we’re very enthusiastic about getting those results. Nevertheless when it comes to facing the realities that have to do with the process of getting those results, we compromise – we even give up. Those who want to start a strict program to lose weight aren’t discipline enough to deny themselves of some things so that they can achieve their goals. Those who need to fast to achieve some spiritual and/or health goals quickly compromise when their body reacts violently to lack of food (we’re addicted to food). Most of us can’t help staying away from foods and habits that are dangerous to our health. We want to go to gym to stay fit, but we’re reluctant to go when the time comes. We know it’s bad to make/receive phone calls while driving, but we can’t resist the temptation. We know what’s good, but we find it more agreeable to do what’s bad. The same is true of trading. We tend to do those things that aren’t in our best interest as traders. We stay away from the markets or even quit trading altogether when we face challenges in the markets; whereas the way we deal with the challenges is what makes the difference between a successful trader and a failure who’s no longer a trader.

We hear sweet talks from those who motivate us to do exploits in life, including the markets, but we can’t follow their recommendations. Tom says: “The chemical boost of imagining the outcome, to say the outcome out loud is essentially all the motivational speakers are facilitating to create success for themselves. Very few of them actually help people, not for the lack of trying, but because of who we human beings are. According to him, motivational talks are good enough to give us the feeling of achievement, but never take us to the full potential. One moment the mind is your friend, and the next moment it is the enemy, standing in the way of you achieving your goal. This is also true of trading.

5.      When the trend changes, one needs to admit that and trade accordingly. It is not logical to think that the market would trend in a direction forever. We should be able to take advantage of the biases in the markets at any time. Great trading instruments must be cheap enough for buyers or expensive enough for sellers.

Conclusion: Tom makes money in bear and bull markets, and you can do the same. It’s worrisome that some traders still dread bear markets, while preferring only bull markets. Bear markets are also great for making money – you simply need to go short. A downtrend is usually accompanied by common dread and worry on the part of the speculator. While this kind of reaction is not a surprise, for the average speculator doesn’t think that the market may go bearish before they actually go bearish. However, instead of staying out of a downtrend, one can employ trading approaches that work in bear markets.

This article is ended with a quote from Tom Hougaard:

“However, the most important lesson I learned was why 99.9% of people fail at reaching their goals in life. We are addicted to pleasure and will avoid pain like the plague.”


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Nike Shares Can Still Go Further Upwards

Nike shares (NYSE:NKE) are in a clean bullish mode amid persistent volatility. The persistent volatility shows the ongoing struggle between the bull and the bears; with the bulls clearly gaining upper hands as the bears continuously fight a losing battle.

Here, 4 EMAs are used and they are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 200. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left corner of the chart. As you can see, all the EMAs are sloping upwards, supporting the price as it goes northwards. The price is now testing the market level at 81.80. It may break it to the upside, reaching resistance levels at 90.00 and 100.00 within the next several months.

Along the way, the price may be pulled back into the EMAs 10 or 20, but it would go further upwards again into the aforementioned targets.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“In its most simple form, the larger time frame on the charts is the secret to successful trading.” – Nick Santiagao

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Atlas Mara Price Breaks Downwards

Atlas Mara stock (LSE:ATMA) has broken downwards as a result of selling pressure that takes the price below the supply zone at 10.50. This has resulted following a long period of consolidating and very thing market activities.

In the chart, the price breaks below the lower Trendline, coming out from the recent consolidating and very thin market activity. At the same time, the RSI period 14 went into the oversold region. Being below the level 50, the RSI period 14 is still bearish, and irrespective of any normal but fleeting rallies that may be expected, the price can break further downwards towards the demand zones at 9.50 and 8.50 within the next several days or months.

This forecast is ended by the quote below:

“[Brene’ Brown, PhD] says that we must “get into the arena” be willing to embrace the uncertainty and the possibility of failure, in order to be able to experience the exhilaration of success.  The interesting thing about success is that it is very expensive.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Monday, September 8, 2014

Gap Trading Signals on GBP Pairs (September 8 – 22, 2014)


GBPNZD = Sell

GBPUSD = Sell

EURGBP = Buy

GBPCHF = Sell

GBPJPY = Buy

GBPCAD = Buy

GBPAUD = Buy

NB: Every trade could be entered with a stop loss of 100 pips and a take profit of 200 pips. The signals may become too late to be taken after 7.00 AM GMT. Only 0.5% is risked per trade. With an account balance of $20,000, a position size of 0.1 would be used. The trading duration is 2 weeks. The breakeven stop is set after about 70-pip profit is made. A trailing stop of 100 pips is set after over 170 pips have been gained.


Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for September 8, 2014

The strength in the USD/CHF has continued, although there was a shallow bearish retracement in the chart on Friday, September 5, 2014. The price closed at 0.9310, and it is expected that it may go further upwards this week.  

EUR/USD:  The EUR/USD trended southward in a significant mode last week. This trend has a high probability of continuing this week, but the possibility of rally attempts cannot be ruled out. The attempted rallies may cause the price to reach the resistance lines at 1.3050 and 1.3100 successively.


USD/CHF: The strength in the USD/CHF has continued, although there was a shallow bearish retracement in the chart on Friday, September 5, 2014. The price closed at 0.9310, and it is expected that it may go further upwards this week.  It may reach the supply level at 0.9350.

GBP/USD: The Cable also dived significantly last week – in a clean positive correlation with its EUR/USD counterpart. The dive might continue this week, taking the price towards the accumulation territory at 1.6250. Meanwhile, the distribution territories at 1.6400 and 1.6450 ought to act as barriers to the bulls’ machinations along the way.

USD/JPY:  The USD/JPY has always been making bullish effort in recent times, with a measure of success. Since the model used in this analysis gave a ‘buy’ signal on August 11, 2014, the price has gone upwards by around 300 pips. The trend may not yet be over, for the price might test the supply level at 106.00 this week.

EUR/JPY:  The massive sell-off that happened on this cross last week has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The weakness may likely continue, taking the price towards the demand levels at 135.50 and 135.00. However, it would take far more weakness in the EUR to accomplish it. Should the EUR recovers from its present weakness, the trend might change. 

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group



Thursday, September 4, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (September 8 - 12, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The sudden weakness in the EUR has caused this pair to tumble. The pair was already bearish when this happened (it has been bearish since June 2014). On Thursday, September 4, 2014, the pair fell further by over 200 pips. In fact, all other EUR pairs tumbled. Therefore, it is plausible to expect further downward plunge in the market, and should this hold true, the price could reach the support levels at 1.2850 and 1.2800. On the other hand, it could have happened that the pair has hit a rock-solid bottom that may be a barrier to further southward journey for the next several weeks. Any rallies in the context of the downtrend could take the price back towards the resistance levels at 1.3100 and 1.3150.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
Since the USD/CHF is negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is no wonder that the former has gone upwards determinedly. Really, our target for this week has been exceeded and price is now poised to go upwards towards the resistance levels at 0.9400 and 0.9450. However, the USD attainment of parity with the CHF is not likely in the long run – that is a far cry. As long as the EUR is weak and the USD is strong, the bullish trend would continue; but should the opposite occur, a strong bearish retracement may force the price to test the support levels at 0.9200 and 0.9150 respectively.    

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The consolidated bullish attempt that occurred on the Cable last week turned out to be an opportunity to go short. This week, the market has dropped by over 300 pips, going below the distribution territory at 1.3650. The distribution territories at 1.6400 and 1.6450 could be barriers to any bullish attempts in the context of the currently strong downtrend. The next target in the market is the accumulation territory at 1.6200.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the Greenback has lots of stamina in it, it is more likely that this currency trading instrument would continue to go further upwards, going towards the supply level at 106.00. The demand level at 104.50 is an immediate hindrance to any pullback that may occur along the way.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The sudden loss of stamina in this cross (brought about by further weakness in the Euro) has led to a new lease of Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market.  The demand zone at 136.00 has been tested, and with further weakness of the cross, the price can go on towards another demand zone at 135.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Swing trading is actually one of the best trading styles for the beginning trader to get his or her feet wet, but it still offers significant profit potential for intermediate and advanced traders. Swing traders receive sufficient feedback on their trades after a couple of days to keep them motivated, but their long and short positions of several days are of the duration that does not lead to distraction.” – Jason Van Bergen (Source: Trade2win.com)




The Most Important FACTOR Behind Traders’ Failure – Part 2

“Our mind is our enemy.” – Tom Hougaard

Our mind is really our foe, especially when we find it extremely difficult to do what are in our best interest. Doing the right things tends to make us uncomfortable initially, unless we train our mind to adapt to doing the right things until they become our second nature.  In the part one of this series, I mentioned how drivers and motorcyclists need to be forced to do what are in their best interest and the best interest of their loved ones (including members of the public).

 It’s well known that smokers are liable to die young. A few years ago, I visited an elderly man who’s a dad to one of my friends. He was glad to see me. After some time, he reached for his drawer and took out a cigarette. He lit it and started smoking. The elderly man noticed that, by my countenance, I wasn’t happy that he was smoking. I was concerned about his health, for he looked a bit emaciated. Before I could speak, he said:

“Young man, I know you aren’t happy that I’m smoking, but that’s not your business. I’d been smoking before you and your friend – who’s my son – were born. I know cigar is dangerous to my health, but mind you, if my health deteriorates and I die, it’s nobody’s business. Nicotine is thought to be poisonous; yet I buy it with my money and take it into my body. It’s my body and my life, not your body or you dad’s body. If I do what can affect my life, it’s nobody’s business. It’s my life and it’s not your concern if I lose it. I’ll smoke till I die. Whether I smoke or not, it’s something that’ll cause my death. Your friend, who’s my son, has accepted this fact and has stopped remonstrating with me. I’ve told my children that if I die today, I should be buried quickly so that I don’t cause a stench in the neighborhood.”

What does this have to do with trading? Many traders who know what can’t pay them in the markets still find those things irresistible. This is the most important reason why most traders won’t make it. Below, you can read 4 things that will guarantee your failure in the markets. If you avoid those things, you success is then guaranteed.

4 Things that will guarantee your failure in the markets
1.      Thinking that risk control isn’t very crucial: Risk control is one of the major factors that contribute to your everlasting success in the market. If you don’t know what it is, you’d better learn it and start applying it. If you know it already, you’d better start applying it with strict religiosity.

2.      Thinking that you know everything: It’s unfortunate that many traders feel that they know what the price would do next. We tend to feel we’re hot, but the markets sometimes remind us that we’re cold. The expert traders’ saving grace is that they never forget they’re students of the markets. It’s thus helpful to trade what you see and properly manage your trades. It’s by far more helpful to use speculation methods that have stood the test of the time historically: plus methods that make money regardless the direction of the markets.

3.      Thinking that overtrading can bring more profits: Overtrading doesn’t improve any statistics, especially when the extant market situation isn’t favorable to your trading methodology. Rather than doing that, you may think of temporarily suspending a certain trading approach until the market conditions become favorable to it. The time of favorable conditions is recognized based on expertise and experience. Another key is to make sure that there’s no reason not to trade a particular setup. This ensures that we enter a position based on our logical entry rules only, not based on irrational emotions.

4.      Thinking that your education and knowledge in other field can help you in trading: I know speculators who were very good at other things but who’re now grappling desperately with the markets. Bill Gates, who’s very successful in the computer world, was recently beaten at a chess game by a chess champion. John McAfee was successful as a software engineer and programmer, but failed as an investor. Your expertise in one field doesn’t automatically translate into success in another field. Someone who’s successful as a TV superstar may fail as a politician. No matter your level of education or degree of expertise in another field, you’ll need to learn the art of successful trading.

Weigh the consequences
There are consequences for suicidal and safe trading principles, and therefore, you’d do well to weigh the consequences before you allow your mind to mislead or lead you. Testing a method in real market conditions is more preferable and more agreeable. When a good method doesn’t work, we patiently control our risk and wait for the time when the conditions in the market would be favorable to it again. The easiest trading methodologies are also the most profitable.

This article is ended with the quote below:

“When I gave up trading due to frustration and losses. I realized the markets didn’t beat me, I beat myself. The classic Jesse Livermore line. I firmly believe that most, if not all of trading over a longer time frame is psychological.” – Larry Tentarelli


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


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