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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 3 - 7, 2014)

The new lease of energy in the Greenback has resulted in the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF. The also has had impact on other major pairs, resulting in near violation of major biases in certain cases. The continuous strength in the Greenback could spur on the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF; otherwise things may change.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Until recently, this pair was making attempts to trade northward, before it was affected by the strength in the Greenback (coupled with the fact that the Euro itself is weak). There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price is expected to continue trading southward for as long as the Bearish Confirmation Pattern is valid. The price could thus reach the support line at 1.3500.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
The new lease of energy in the Greenback has resulted in the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF. The also has had impact on other major pairs, resulting near violation of major biases in certain cases. The continuous strength in the Greenback could spur on the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF; otherwise things may change. The USDCHF must stay above the support level at 0.9000, for the current bullish bias to be valid.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The former bearish bias on this market was put in jeopardy as a result of the exponential weakness in the Cable. The new ‘sell’ signal in the chart has been confirmed and the price could go on towards the accumulation territories at 1.6450 and 1.6400 consecutively, especially in the face of perpetual weakness in the Cable. Meanwhile, the distribution territories at 1.6550 and 1.6600 would act as hurdles to bullish threats.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There are serious upswings and downswings on this currency trading instrument, but the bearish outlook on it remains unchanged. The demand level at 102.00 was tested last week and this week upwards from that level – with limited rallies – and it has often come back to the level. For the bearish outlook to remain more sensible, that demand level must be breached to the downside, while the price goes further towards another demand level at 101.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross has been weak since the beginning of this year and the price has dropped by over 450 pips. This week has also been bearish and next week would be like that. The USD seems to be having some stamina and the EUR is showcasing a sign of perpetual weakness, as the price goes below the supply zone at 139.00. It now heads towards the demand zone 138.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Seasoned traders report that they make the most profits when they aren't expecting them. They observe the markets openly and freely, and suddenly they make a profitable trade.” – Joe Ross


Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders


Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Who Should Be Your Trading Mentor?

Experienced trading mentors have groomed successful traders over the years. While some frown on the idea of mentioning mentors, it’d be necessary to say that the writer of this article would’ve quit the trading world many years ago when things became so hopeless in the markets, provided he didn’t come across those seasoned coaches and traders who revealed the secrets of successful trading to him. It’s reckless to assume that you can just read a few articles from some ‘Golden Goose proponents’ and then conclude that you can go to the battlefield of the financial markets on your own. The reality is totally different from this.

When it’s possible to become successful after many trials and errors of your own, things would be very much easier and far less intricate if you go to the battlefield with a trading veteran who’s also a talented trainer. It’s easier for one to call oneself a hero/heroine before one faces a real battle. Those who ignore the fact above would eventually be forced to look for help when they face the quirk of the markets with their shallow experience.

You tend to be like trading mentors you like. They can be successful traders - or losing traders - based on whom you like. There are mentors whose trading principles are worth emulating. You don’t need to have met the mentors face-to-face. In this Internet age you and your mentor can telecommute.

Your trading mentor doesn’t have to be perfect, nor winning always. It’s unrealistic to think that a mentor must be a saint that no one can ever find any fault with. You also have your own weakness and human flaw. No human being is perfect, and such your mentors may exhibit some human errors, yet they would be exemplary when it comes to trading and some other professional aspects, and therefore they can be great role models in the world of trading.

It’s possible that you’ve many trading mentors; as many as you want. One might be good at trading with precision accuracy, while another might be a good trading money and risk manager. Another one might be an expert in trading psychology and disciplined mindset. My own role models are many. They include Joe Ross, Dr Van K. Tharp, Sam Evans, Dr. Alexander Elder, Dr. Emilio Tomasini, Loiuse Bedford, and others.

How You Can Benefit from Your Trading Mentors
1.         Carry out research and observe them and have an insight into their trading principles.

2.         Interact with them. There are many technological devices that can be used in achieving this, like telephone, webinars, trading rooms, teleconferencing, chatting facilities, etc.

3.         Ponder your role models’ trading qualities, strengths and principles. As you ponder these, you’d see yourself imitating them.

4.         When you choose a trading mentor, your aim won’t be to transform yourself to be exactly like the person. Probably, you still possess your own innate good trading traits and strengths. Nonetheless, having role models in the trading world would help bring out the best in you as a trader.

You can learn as part of a trading team or group. Before you can become part of hedge fund, you’ll first need a good account history, even if your capital is small. Getting employed as a funds manager is highly dependent on your track records. Should you become part of a trading group, you’d then need to gain more ideas from the most talented and the most proficient speculators in that group. Good reputation in trading has to do with your records and longevity – these are mandatory.

Excerpts from Trading Role Models
Quotes are beneficial and inspirational, for they have transformed many souls. Quotes from famous, seasoned and profitable traders are thus no exception. Below are excerpts from articles written by a few of my role models:

“People act like they've got all the time in the world, oblivious to the fact that the hourglass is running out of sand. They waste time when they could educate themselves. They entertain when they should focus…. People's lives seem to be getting more and more crammed with a lot of ignorance, self-entertainment one way or another, and... well... not much else. Don't let this world-wide trend define THIS month for YOU! You have a choice. Invest your time and reap the benefits. Spend your time and it will be gone forever.” – Louise Bedford (Source: www.tradingsecrets.com.au)

“Learning to trade is different from learning to ride a bike; it’s more like learning a profession. Unfortunately, most traders think they can just close their eyes, pick stocks, sit back and let the money roll in. But it doesn’t happen that way, and eventually, new traders figure that out—often painfully. Successful trading takes a tremendous amount of planning, skill and training—just like any business venture. Essentially, your trading should be viewed as a business—because it is a business. And if you want that business to be profitable, you need to understand the parts of your business, you need a good plan, and you need the discipline to follow the plan… If you're looking for a quick and easy way to make money in the markets, even Tharp Think won’t help. There is no "silver bullet solution" to trading success.” – Dr. Van Tharp (Source: www.vantharp.com)



Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Annual Trading Forecast on Ebay (2014)

The Ebay shares (NASDAQ:EBAY) are experiencing upswings followed by downswings, but the price may go upwards determinedly this year.

In the chart, the price broke up from the Trendlines (January 2014), spiked upwards, and then got corrected lower. The lower correction is therefore going into the Trendlines again, but it would not go below the lower Trendline. From that place, the price may resume its northward journey and move determinedly upwards. Apart from the fact that there is a demand level at the lower Trendline, this assumption is further confirmed by the RSI period 14 which also showcases a northward propensity.

Conclusion:  Ebay remains a murky market, but there could be a protractedly directional move this year. With the situation of things, I would prefer to be bullish and keep record of what happens in this market. I do not need to seek the Golden Goose trading methodology, though I am open to new trading principles. I would give those principles some baptism of fire and see for myself whether it can stand the test of the time. Should the outcome be negative, I would discard the principles. I am determined to keep a log of my trading activities and look for fine signals. The log helps me in many ways: like telling me what I did badly or right before. It is sad that some traders do not do this.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“When the market changes, then you should change, but investing according to what you think might happen rather than what is happening is usually a recipe for disaster.” – Van Tharp

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (February 2014)

Gulf Keystone stock (LSE:GKP) has been going south, though it is not likely that it would go below the support zone at 150.00, which is a target for the bears.

There has been a ‘Death Cross’ in the chart as the price crossed the EMA 200 to the downside. The EMA 10 has also crossed the EMA 200 to the downside, affirming the current weakness in the price. The price could go lower towards the aforementioned support zone, but it may rally massively from there.

Conclusion: On Gulf Keystone, the Big Picture for this year is bullish, but that does not mean that sellers cannot gain from occasional large pullbacks in the market. Some interesting stocks pulled back by about 40% last year and made surprise recovery. That is because of the Big Picture (which was northward). I think it’s helpful to learn from others’ winning principles. The most frequent headache gotten by speculators happens when crazy movements occur in the market and an order that would go in one’s direction is automatically smoothed abruptly. That is why it is OK to consider volatility with one’s stop and ride the bias for as long as possible, thereby gaining a lot.

There's a strong urge to contemplate the past and worry about the future. It seems wise to do so, but looking at your past often gets you nowhere, especially in trading. And excessive worry about the future often distracts you from what you need to do right now in order to ensure future success.” – Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators.com)

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders


Monday, January 27, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (January 27 – February 7, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 102.620
Stop loss: 103.624
Take profit: 100.624

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 87.774
Stop loss: 90.778
Take profit: 87.778

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 92.330
Stop loss: 93.345
Take profit: 90.345

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 114.392
Stop loss: 115.411
Take profit: 112.411

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 140.295
Stop loss: 141.308
Take profit: 138.308

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 170.102
Stop loss: 171.114
Take profit: 168.114

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 27, 2014
Entry price: 84.528
Stop loss: 85.555
Take profit: 82.555


Recent performances
December 2013 = 5%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.


Source: www.tallinex.om

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for January 27, 2014

Last week was very interesting in the markets because there were significant reversals. For example, the EUR/JPY, which has long been in an equilibrium zone, was able to break out in the direction of the bears. The new biases would continue to be valid for this week.


EUR/USD:  This pair was able to shrug off further bearish threats on it, as it went into a positive correlation with the Cable. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price would break the resistance line at 1.3700 this week, while going further towards the resistance line at 1.3750.

USD/CHF:  This pair was able to shrug off further bullish attempts on it, as it went into a negative correlation with the EUR/USD. There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price would break the resistance line at 0.8900 this week, while going further towards the resistance line at 0.8850.

GBP/USD:  The Cable topped at 1.6650 and later plummeted by close to 160 pips. The RSI has crossed the level 50 to the downside, but the EMAs are yet to validate that. Only a movement below the accumulation territory of 1.6400 would render the current bullish bias invalid. Without that, it is believed that the price could rise from here.

USD/JPY: Caution had always been expressed about the limitation of the recent bullish signal in this market. Things have now suddenly gone bearish, and the indicators in the chart have confirmed this. From the supply level at 104.50, the price dropped by more than 200 pips; and it may continue going down this week

EUR/JPY: Last week was very interesting in the markets because there were significant reversals. For example, the EUR/JPY, which has long been in an equilibrium zone, was able to break out in the direction of the bears. The new biases would continue to be valid for this week.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders



Friday, January 24, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 27 – 21, 2014)

There have been interesting developments in the markets as currency trading instruments experience significant reversals. For example, the EURJPY was able to break out in the direction of the bears, after some protracted consolidation phase. The price went below the supply zone of 140.00, and it is expected to continue going down further.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
In an effort to become positively correlated with the GBPUSD, this pair has gone seriously bullish. From the support area of 1.3550, the price shot upwards by over 150 pips. Soon, the price would be trading above the resistance line at 1.3700 (which is currently being challenged). The ultimate target for the week is at the resistance line of 1.3800. Meanwhile, the support line at 1.3600 should act as a hurdle to the bears’ threats.  

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on this pair, as a result of the sudden weakness in the USD that started recently. The indicators on the chart show this, plus the fact that the price has tested the support level of 0.8900 before bouncing upwards. The upwards bounce should be something temporary, because the price is going to test that support level again and again; until it finally breaks it to the downside. The next target is at the support level at 0.8850.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The Cable moved upwards recently by about 250 pips, topped at the distribution territory of 1.6650, before the price nosedived. The price is now trading below the distribution territory of 1.6500, although the bullish bias is still valid in the market. There are mixed signals on the chart in that the current bearish threats are formidable; but as long as the price stays above the 1.6400, the bullish bias is a valid thing.  

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Before the present bearish reversal in this market, it was going upwards in a limited manner. Now the price has plummeted seriously, testing the demand level at 102.00. That demand level would definitely be tested again, especially in the face of the extant selling pressure in the market. Once the demand level is again tested and broken to the downside, the next target in the market would be the demand level at 101.00.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There have been interesting developments in the markets as currency trading instruments experience significant reversals. For example, the EURJPY was able to break out in the direction of the bears, after some protracted consolidation phase. The price went below the supply zone of 140.00, and it is expected to continue going down further. The supply zone at 142.00 would act as a barrier to any bullish possibility. It is a normal thing to be caught by sudden fundamentals. Therefore, one would need to capitalize on the impact caused by the fundamental, no matter the direction of the price.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“There’s only one way to make money trading, and that is testing, testing, testing… Take a trading strategy or a trading idea, and test it rigorously. And sometimes you’ll be surprised by the outcome…” - Markus Heitkoetter


Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Investing Wisdom from a Total Novice


“It is so important in the training for trading to do the right things from the very
beginning.” – Norman Welz

I recently met someone who doesn’t even know how to trade Forex, though he’d heard the word ‘Forex.’ We were chatting together and he, interestingly, said that when he was ready to do Forex, he would just put down his money with a funds manager that has a proven track record, and he would then forget the investment for many years. He said he’d even be happy when small but consistent profits accumulate of the account on a quarterly or annual basis (totaling about 15% to 30% per annum).

Unlike those who prefer gargantuan profits very quickly, the man didn’t mention doubling accounts again and again in a short period of time. What do you want from trading? Latest automobiles, beautiful girls and financial liberty – which can all be gotten at will. The hope of making money without lifting one’s fingers looks feasible, though some don’t think that the hope could be out of touch with what are real. Many a speculator targets the probability of living affluent and carefree lives. Plus there seems to be the probability of attaining the goals thru trading. We’re grateful!

Online trading remains one of the best jobs we can do. It incorporates self-employment with liberty and the chances of getting rich. But the fact is that one would get rich slowly, not quickly. As mentioned in some of my past articles, trying to get rich quickly is very risky. Please consider the wisdom in the statement made by the man mentioned in this article, and lower your expectations.

Conclusion: It’s not likely that hard work would make you a multimillionaire. In trading, it looks great to go for small but consistent profits rather than home runs. The mortals’ mistakes sometimes have far-reaching effects… Occasionally, an incident that lasts several hours or an ‘extraordinary situation’ might bring a trader’s dreams to an abrupt end. Therefore, it makes sense to try to be realistic when managing trades.

The article is concluded with the quote below:

“Being your own referee is just as hard in trading as it is in football. But those in this profession who fail to submit to discipline control can quickly find themselves left out of the game. Most of those affected remain.” – Norman Welz (Source: Tradersonilne-mag.com)



Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Annual Trading Forecast on Yahoo! (2014)

Yahoo! stock (NASDAQ:YHOO) was bullish for the most part of 2013 and this would continue this year. The probability of a trend going further according to a dominant bias is much more than the probability of it reversing.

Right now, there is a pullback in the market and the ADX period 14 is showing the presence of bearish threats. Things have not gone completely bearish, except the RSI period 14 goes below the level 50 and the ADX DM – is vividly above its DM+ counterpart. The reversal would be confirmed further when the ADX line rises above the levels 30, 40 and 50. Without this being fulfilled, the price would keep on going upwards, possibly reaching the resistance line at 45.00 this year.

Conclusion: Interestingly, Yahoo! is a strong stock which could continue its upwards journey. You would thus survive this market (making money) by using small position sizes to, paradoxically, make more money. The less you stake the more you make. Though, when traders make money, the intensity of their happiness is less than the intensity of their sadness/anger when they lose money.  Whether the last order was positive or negative, the market would always be there for on Monday morning.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

Over the years, I have made things very complicated and suffered from “Analysis Paralysis”. But when I finally simplified things, my trading improved tremendously.” - Markus Heitkoetter

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders


Annual Trading Forecast on FTSE 100 (2014)

FTSE 100 (FTSE:UKX) has been going upwards since the middle of December 2013. This is a trend that is supposed to be sustained for the most part of this year.

On the chart, the price is above the EMA 21, which is sloping upwards; while the MACD (standard settings) has both its histogram and signal line above the zero line. That is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price could reach the distribution territories of 6850.00 and 6950.00 respectively.

Conclusion: FTSE 100 is a bull market, and things would continue being bullish on it. It is therefore, better to seek long trades only and bear risk in mind. You simply need to control yourself enough and to stake as small as possible so that unforeseen events in the markets do not affect your portfolio. Your risk control measures would protect you from a huge drawdown – which means that your negativity can be recovered more easily. Besides, your life would be much easier if you look at the Big Picture (bull market) and adopt a part-time trading approach. It may not be in your best interest to sit at your PC all day long and watch every movement. Should you do this, you would not be able to control your emotions and this can be costly.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“Making money in the stock market requires a maximum degree of mental and strategic competence and discipline. Extra caution should be exercised at the start of trading,
which resembles a mass start at sporting events. Once the starting gun goes off, all the participants will storm ahead causing the risk of accidents to be high.” – Stephen Arnold (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com)


Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Monday, January 20, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (January 20 – February 3, 2014)

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (January 20 – February 3, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 104.199
Stop loss: 105.210
Take profit: 102.210

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 91.719
Stop loss: 92.736
Take profit: 89.736

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 95.105
Stop loss: 96.126
Take profit: 93.126

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 114.626
Stop loss: 115.642
Take profit: 112.643

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 141.357
Stop loss: 142.371
Take profit: 139.371

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 171.269
Stop loss: 172.300
Take profit: 169.300

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: January 20, 2014
Entry price: 86.072
Stop loss: 87.101
Take profit: 84.101


Recent performances
December 2013 = 5%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.


Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.

Source: www.tallinex.om 

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for January 20, 2014

This week, the USD/CHF should be able to trade above the market level at 0.9100.  The ultimate target for this week is the resistance level at 0.9200.

EUR/USD:  This market has been bearish and it would continue to be so this week. We are watching the support lines at 1.3500 and 1.3450, which are the successive targets for the bears. Meanwhile, the resistance lines at 1.3600 and 1.3650 should act as barriers to any possible bullish threats.


USD/CHF:  This, week the USD/CHF should be able to trade above the market level at 0.9100.  The ultimate target for this week is the resistance level at 0.9200. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart reveals that the bias should go on being bullish in favor of buyers.

GBP/USD:  This pair has been ‘reluctantly’ bearish, and it experienced a massive rally on Friday before the market closed at 1.6422. The question now is: Would this pair go upwards or downwards this week? To get an answer, one would need to wait for a clearer signal in the chart. The price would have to go above the distribution territory at 1.6500 before a bullish bias can be confirmed. Likewise, the price would have to go below the accumulation territory at 1.6300 before a bearish bias is confirmed.

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument traded lower at the beginning of the last week and later rallied massively before moving sideways. The price action reveals that it is possible for the price to continue going upwards.  

EUR/JPY: This cross started the last week in a bearish mode, and then experienced a bullish challenged before going bearish again. The price should cross the demand zone at 141.00 to the downside, going towards another demand zone at 140.00.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Friday, January 17, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 20 – 24, 2014)


For a few weeks, the EURJPY has been experiencing limited bullish energy. Since the overall bias is bearish, it looks sensible to seek ways to go short when the price rallies, at least, to make allowances for the huge upswings and downswings in the price, as it occasionally happens. The price has been moving sideways for some time, and it would soon experience a renewed momentum in favor of the extant bias.  

What would then happen if there is a renewed momentum while the price stays in an equilibrium phase, going possibly downwards? The agreement between the bulls and the bears would eventually result in wonderment, then inaction, at times worry. The worry can then result in a mad rush, which would cause increased selling pressure, thus driving the price further south.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair has remained bearish since the beginning of this year, although certain bullish attempts in the market nearly rendered the bias invalid at some time.  The price is currently in an equilibrium phase, but there would soon be a breakout in the favor of the sellers. The support line at 1.3550 stands a chance of being breached to the downside. This support line was tested last week, and thus could be tested again.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair has remained bullish since the beginning of this year, although certain bearish attempts in the market nearly rendered the bias invalid at some time.  The price is currently in an equilibrium phase, but there would soon be a breakout in the favor of the buyers. The resistance level at 0.9100 stands a chance of being breached to the upside. This resistance level was tested several times this week and last week, and thus could be tested again.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Slowly and steadily (sometimes with significant but short-term rallies) the Cable is moving downwards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.6300 and 1.6250 within the next several days, especially in the face of the extant bearish bias. Meanwhile the distribution territories at 1.6400 and 1.6500 serve as major hurdles to possible bullish attempts.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The situation on this currency trading instrument is rather tricky, and would require some patience. For a few weeks, it is clear that the bulls are having limited power here; and at the same time, the price has not been able to go downwards protractedly. Effective barriers to the buyers’ interest exist at the supply levels of 105.00 and 105.50. We are watching the demand levels at 103.00, which should be reached when the market plunges further.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
For a few weeks, the EURJPY has been experiencing limited bullish energy. Since the overall bias is bearish, it looks sensible to seek ways to go short when the price rallies, at least, to make allowances for the huge upswings and downswings in the price, as it occasionally happens. The price has been moving sideways for some time, and it would soon experience a renewed momentum in favor of the extant bias. 

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“If you know how to read price on a chart, you will understand how to recognize the true footprints of the major market players, mainly the institutions.” – Sam Evans

Source: www.tallinex.com


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders


Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Annual Trading Forecast on IBM (2014)


International Business Machines stock (NYSE:IBM) has been rallying since December 2013. The price has formed a Double Bottom pattern (a “W’ shape), which means a true bottom has been found at those extreme ends, and the price ought to be going upwards.


In the chart, the EMA 20 has crossed the EMA 50 to the upside, as a confirmation of the new bullish bias that was started last month. This current pullback in the price is thus a good opportunity to go long dearer. The ultimate target for the year 2014 is at the resistance level of 200.00. Though, there is a possibility that the level could also be breached to the upside.

Conclusion: IBM stock is supposed to keep on going upwards for most part of this year, although this could be accompanied by occasional large pullbacks in the market. This would cause temporary negativity for bulls. Negativity is nothing new in trading – rarely does a week or month go perfectly. But overall, one would attain some profits. Every speculator should be aware of the limitations of their orders and know that they need to attain agreeable parameters of the limitations. In addition, any negativity should be treated and taken as one of those orders that have the potential of bringing positivity.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“Were currencies cyclical?  Were stocks and bonds cyclical? Did anyone really know? Do stocks have cycles? Maybe sectors have cycles. Would a natural gas cycle be the same as a crude oil cycle? I'll leave such decisions to scientists and mathematicians to figure out. While they are figuring it out, I'd rather figure out how to take money from the markets.” – Joe Ross


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders



A Helpful Website for Serious Traders and Investors


“To become an exceptional trader, you may need to give up some things that don't really mean that much in your life to gain immense rewards.” – Louise Bedford

ADVFN.COM

There is one website that’s great for pros and noobs. The website is www.advfn.com. It contains valuable information and features for those who want to approach the markets and benefit from them.  On the landing page, you’ll even see many of the features and services they offer. This enables you to monitor the price changes in the currency markets and keep yourself abreast of the latest information as long as the prices are concerned.

There are unique features that are offered by the website, a few of them are mentioned here:

Investment Books
One of the quickest ways to become successful in the markets is to tap from the trading/investing principles of successful traders. Navigating the ocean of the markets without knowledge that works can be catastrophic

Why it matters: By learning the principles and beliefs that have been employed by skilled traders, you would give yourself a solid foundation and a helpful start. This has helped me seriously, as well as many others; it would certainly help you.


Financial Newspaper
Get yourself educated and informed by world-class trading journalists. You will get free access to interesting news, reports and various articles that have to do with trading and investment. For example, there are sections that are dedicated to banks, oil and gas, mining, commodities, technical analysis, technology, penny stock, foreign exchange, etc.

Why it matters:  You simple can’t afford to miss latest news, tips and articles that matter to you, as far as your investment interests and portfolios are concerned.


More features
One of the most important qualities of a financial information website is customer support. At ADVFN, every subscriber is treated as an essential individual, not as a number. You can contact them and be rest assured that they’d respond to you as quickly as possible. Their online support staff are always happy to help with any issues or questions you may have. There’s availability of free membership, and you can start having access to major world markets, indices, forex, futures, options, ETFs, and warrants. There are features like, streaming charts, real-time quotes, monitor watch lists, etc. The website has an extremely active financial forum. Lastly, you can access stock data on iPhone, iPads and Android apps.

Conclusion: ADVFN is really a place to be. Play the markets and keep your risk under control. Clem Chambers says the best way to lose money in the market is to forget risk. Conversely, I’d say the best way to make money is to be aware of risk and manage it. If you’re afraid of risk, you may dread the art of speculation, negativity, or failing to take an advantage of a great trade. Paradoxically, your fear of risk or quest for perfectionism may end up being a disadvantage in your life.

This piece is ended with a food for thought below:

“Trading is a decision making process at its core foundation and requires us as market speculators to take responsibility for the choices we make to buy, sell and manage our risk.” – Sam Evans

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for January 13, 2014


The EUR/JPY has shown its inability to trade higher than the supply zone at 143.00, in spite of testing it several times last week. Should the price then fall below the demand zone at 142.00, it could mean the beginning of a new bearish trend.

EUR/USD:  After moving sideways for most of last week, this pair was able to break out upwards, thus rendering the recent bearish bias almost invalid. The bearish bias is not yet completely invalid. What would make it invalid is a situation in which the pair trades above the resistance line at 1.3700, which would have led to a clean bullish bias by then.


USD/CHF:  After moving sideways for most of last week, this pair was able to break out downwards, thus rendering the recent bullish bias almost invalid. The bullish bias is not yet completely invalid. What would make it invalid is a situation in which the pair trades below the support level at 0.9000, which would have led to a clean bearish bias by then.

GBP/USD:  Interestingly the Cable and the EUR/USD seem to be going into a positive correlation with each other. This means that both are making attempts to go northward. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable has been existing since last week. The price should be able to close above the distribution territory at 1.6500 this week.

USD/JPY: This currency trading instrument closed at 104.15 on Friday, after forming another bearish signal. I think it is better to begin to look for ways to sell rallies in this market, for the recent bullish signals on it have been showing signs of failure. The price has not been able to trade above the supply level of 105.50.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has shown its inability to trade higher than the supply zone at 143.00, in spite of testing it several times last week. Should the price then fall below the demand zone at 142.00, it could mean the beginning of a new bearish trend. This view is supported by the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders


An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method


Selling the Rallies and Buying the Dips in Direction of Dominant Biases

“All you can do in the end is do your best, and keep building up your trading skills. If you keep trying to excel, but stay realistic, you'll eventually achieve lasting success.” – Joe Ross

In a recent article titled ‘An Introduction to a Demand and Supply Signals Strategy - Long-term Pending Orders at Effective Demand and Supply Zones,’ it’s mentioned that the signals from the strategy would be coming on a monthly basis. Another trading method explained here makes you trade like Smart Money does. It’s also the 2nd signals strategy that would be used to send signals and therefore, it is better to familiarize yourself with the strategy, so that when the signals come, you’ll know the principles and reasons behind them. 

Since the currency markets are the best trending markets that exist, it is rational to follow the dominant trends, also in a logical way. When a pair, say the GBPJPY, is dropping like a stone, it’s more likely that it’ll continue dropping for its loss of stamina. But the drop in price would be accompanied by occasional transient rallies in the context of the southward propensity. Someone who goes short on the GBPJPY could be stopped out by a transient rally before the price continues to go further downward in their favor. This would happen because a stop may be too tight and because the price doesn’t go in a straight line.

With this trading method, we’d be speculating on JPY pairs: USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, CADJPY, and CHFJPY. The JPY pairs tend to move in noteworthy manners; and since they tend to be positively correlated to one another, they’re easier to predict. We buy a pullback in the context of an uptrend or sell a rally in the context of a downtrend. This makes us sell dearer on weak instruments and buy cheaper on strong instruments – really good bargains!

This method doesn’t do well when a trend is changing. But soon the change would be confirmed and we’ll prepare to take signals in respect of that. This means a rally may signal the end of a downtrend, and vice versa for an uptrend. It also means either the hegemony of the bull or the bear is over. We would be behaving like the majority when we allow ourselves to be carried away by irrationality; for trading with irrationality can prevent us from realizing our goals, as it happens to the majority. We just want to make sure that the vagaries of the markets don’t have adverse effects on our portfolios. We can face transitory negativity triumphantly (negativity would always be transitory), and later recover quickly and move ahead when the markets smile on us. Such is trading. 

In order to understand this trading method, please see the details below.

Details of the Strategy
Strategy name: JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method
Strategy type: Swing trading
Trading style: Systematic
Suitability: For full-time and part-time traders
Time horizons: Hourly chart
Currency instruments: JPY pairs
Order type: Instant execution
Signal days: Mondays
Period: Evening
Entry rules: Buy a pullback in the context of an uptrend or sell a rally in a context of a downtrend
Stop loss: 100 pips
Take profit: 200 pips
Position sizing: Please use 0.01 lots for each $2000 (and thus making it 0.05 lots for $20000); or 0.5 lots for each $100000
Risk per trade: 0.5% per trade minimum, depends on equity ratio
Risk to reward ratio: 1:2
Exit: Close any open positive trade which is 2 weeks old
Breakeven: You can move you stop to breakeven after you gain up to 70 pips
Trailing stop: You can set up to a 50% trailing stop after you’ve gained up to 170 pips
Maximum signals per week: 7
Duration: 2 weeks

More Explanation
Based on my experience, this would be done only on Mondays.  If there is a Monday in which the entry criteria aren’t fulfilled, no trades would be taken. Sometimes, it may even take a few Mondays before there are tradable signals. That is the peculiarity of the strategy. When the entry criteria are met, you’d know when to place your orders since you know the setups are clean. It’s when you smooth your orders that your account balance can be increased and therefore your exit criteria must be taken serious. This method netted me a profit of 500 pips (5%) in December 2013. Of course, there were losses which were smaller than the profits. Understandably, there’d be negative months or months when there would be flat performances. However, there’d be profits to show in the long run.

Below is an example of how a JPY pair order signal looks like:

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: November 25, 2013
Entry price: 137.300
Stop loss: 136.300
Take profit: 139.300

The signals would be published on this website. The signals would also be traded live for Tallinex clients to see. These signals will initially be emailed to subscribers, but will soon be offered via the automatic trade-following feature of our upcoming social trading platform.

Conclusion: The aim of this trading method is to buy dips in an uptrend or sell rallies in a downtrend.  We need to respect the major bias always.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“It is by watching and managing the losing trades that you will make money. The winning trades can be left alone (never, never, close out too soon).” – Alan Saunders


Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders


Friday, January 10, 2014

Weekly Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 13 – 17, 2014)


 Next week, the markets are expected to keep on going contrary to the dominant biases. As expected, there have already been breakouts from the current equilibrium phases that are seen in some cases. As the breakouts are being expected, it would also be helpful to watch what volume is doing. Experienced traders know that volume is an important factor behind prices. But it is amazing that most traders do not pay attention to it.

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair was trading largely sideways until there was a bullish breakout in the market. The breakout, though a serious threat to the extant bearish bias, has not really rendered it useless. The price has closed above the support line of 1.3650, but it would need to close above the resistance line of 1.3700 before it can be said that the bearish bias is over and the trend has turned bullish. Otherwise, the current price action would simply be an opportunity to sell another rally.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
This pair was trading largely sideways until there was a bearish breakout in the market. The breakout, though a serious threat to the extant bullish bias, has not really rendered it useless. The price has closed below the resistance level of 0.9050, but it would need to close below the support level of 0.9000 before it can be said that the bullish bias is over and the trend has turned bearish. Otherwise, the current price action would simply be an opportunity to buy another dip in the price.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
Oddly enough, this pair, which is supposed to be in a positive correlation agreement with its EURUSD counterpart, is in a negative correlation with it. This kind of phenomenon sometimes happens before the law of positive correlation comes into effect again. Right now, the trend in the market is bullish and it may be possible for the price to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6600, unless it would go into a negative correlation with the EURUSD.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish
For a few weeks, this currency trading instrument has been having difficulties in trading significantly higher. The trend is bullish, but it seems that the near supply zones are becoming too formidable for the bulls. The greatest barrier is at the supply level of 105.50, and should the bulls find it impossible to breach that level to the upside next week, this would be beginning of a long-term southward journey in the market. With that, we would prefer to sell rallies.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross has already been bearish and the bulls are unable to even push the price beyond the supply zone at 143.00 (though that zone has been tested several times recently). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price could fall further seriously from here – certain JPY pairs have done that.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading is serious business and you must be prepared with the best that you have in order to do battle in the trading trenches.” – Dr. Woody Johnson


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders



An Introduction to a Demand and Supply Signals Strategy


Long-term Pending Orders at Effective Demand and Supply Zones

“I know, that all action on the market is there to be read in the chart: as long as one knows where to look and what to look for.” – Alan Saunders

This is an introduction to a signals strategy that would start coming up later this month. It just makes sense that interested traders get familiar with the details of the strategy so that they can know what to do in any circumstances brought about by the markets.

As we experience the zigs and zags of trading, we want to be sure that we’re doing the right thing. Doing the right thing means going with the flow of the markets. At a demand zone, buyers are willing to buy from sellers who’re rushing into the imbalance of the price at a wrong time. The same thing is true of a supply zone: the sellers want to sell to the buyers who want to go long when the imbalance in the price is against them. This kind of timing can scupper the effort of speculators who go into the wrong side of the market.

The Demand and Supply Signals Strategy makes you buy logically low and sell logically high, and do it right. Please see the details below:

Details of the Strategy
Strategy name: Demand and Supply Signals Strategy
Strategy type: Position trading
Trading style: Discretionary
Suitability: Good for part-time traders
Time horizons: 4-hour charts, sometimes daily charts
Order type: Pending orders (Buy Limit and Sell Limit)
Entry rules: Based on powerful demand and supply zones on the charts
Stop loss: 100 pips
Take profit: 200 pips
Position sizing: Please use 0.01 lots for each $1000 (and thus making it 0.1 lots for $10000); or 1.0 lots for each $100000
Risk per trade: 1%
Risk to reward ratio: 1:2
Breakeven: You can move you stop to breakeven after you gain up to 70 pips
Trailing stop: You can set up to a 50% trailing stop after you’ve gained up to 170 pips
Maximum signals: 20 signals
Maximum trades: 10 trades per month
Duration: One month 

Further Note
All the available signals in a month would be generated simultaneously. In the details of the strategy above, you can see that ‘maximum signals’ are different from ‘maximum trades.’ This is because not all pending orders would be filled. Expiry date is set for each pending order which is usually one month in duration.  About 13 pending orders were generated in December 2013, but only 3 were filled. 2 of the trades hit their targets, giving me 400 pips, but the third trade was slightly negative. The logic for exiting it is to close it once it has reached any positivity (no matter how little). The worst thing that can happen on that trade is for it to hit its stop loss.

Below is an example of how a pending order signal looks like:

Instrument: EURUSD
Order: Sell Limit
Entry date: June 18, 2012
Entry price: 1.2572
Stop loss: 1.2674
Take profit: 1.2374

The signals would also be traded live, but only account holders at Tallinex.com may have access to that. This ensures that they get the signals in a timely manner, for prices can move surprisingly. Nevertheless, the signals would usually be published on this website.

Conclusion: Many want to enjoy gains without seeing the occasional drawdowns that come with it. There’s no way around the fact that negativity will come occasionally, but we can control it so that it has no big impact on our capital, which is one way of remaining permanently triumphant in the markets. This strategy has the potential to trigger trades that have winners that are bigger than average losers on a long-time basis. One way of doing this is to let our profits run. The pressure we feel comes from us; really, we’re the ones who desire the quick profits that others are talking about. As for me, I’m content with the results I get, so I don’t care as much if people say that the profits are small. Besides, I like being the kind of trader I want to be.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“By starting small and following a few simple rules, trading can be the best career on the planet!” – Rick Wright

Source: www.tallinex.com


Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders



Thursday, January 9, 2014

Vladimir Ribakov: A Winning Signals Strategist


LEARN FROM GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 44

“Most people don’t understand that they need a trading system if they are to make money in the markets. Most importantly, that system must fit you, your objectives, your psychology, and your beliefs, for you to be able to trade it effectively.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp

Vladimir Ribakov is a renowned expert trader, mentor, signals provider, blogger, author, trading software developer and funds manager. He’s his roots in the part of the world that used to be called USSR. For many years, he’s been handling the uncertainty in the currencies exchange markets and commodities markets victoriously. 

Having achieved success in trading, he decided to reach out to those who need help – those livid and exasperated souls who long to make gains from the markets. Most of these people were misled into adopting various suicide trading principles in the past, and they suffered as a result of this. Vlad has endeavored to assist some of those people in learning and applying winning trading principles and the results have been wonderful. Vlad’s websites are: Vladimirforexsignals.com/, and: Vladimirribakov.com/. On those websites, you may want to tap into his peerless knowledge and experience. You can also access his trading signals, strategies, blog posts, eBooks, etc. All these are constantly updated.  He’s released some free but helpful trading software like Spread Detector and so on. Spread Detector helps you determine when your broker widens the spread unfairly or according to their terms and conditions. It also helps you see whether a broker really has fixed spreads if they promise that. 

One best way to learn from Vlad is to download his free eBooks that reveal important trading secrets. Those eBooks ought to come at a price, but the author really wants to help as many people as possible. His free eBooks are: “The Secret Meaning of Japanese Candlesticks Part 1,” “The Secret Meaning of Japanese Candlesticks Part 2,” “What Type of Traders Do You Want to Be?” “Psychological Trading and Money Management System,” and “Converting Knowledge Into Practice.” His premium eBooks are titled: “Sell the Rally, Buy the Valley” and “Profitable Trading Mind.”

Lessons
The best way to learn from Vlad is to download his free eBooks and subscribe to his free trading signals. In addition, these are some of what you can learn from him:

1.      The easiest and the quickest way to become a successful trader is to follow a winning trader’s buy and sell recommendations – with physical stops, targets, trade management and risk control. One pitfall is that most people aren’t disciplined enough to follow the signal provider’s recommendations as originally intended. Yet, they blame the signals provider. This also explains why many people would purchase profitable trading strategies and still receive margin calls with them: the systems either don’t fit them or they don’t stick to the rules of the strategies.

2.      Vlad himself declares: “I constantly scan the web for new systems, strategies and Forex services. I have to admit, there is a lot of crap out there but still, I have managed to find here and there interesting systems that actually work nicely. Sometimes I even test how to integrate them with my strategies and tools, to dramatically improve system performance.” There are great trading strategies out there. Do you have a winning trading strategy? Vlad’s winning strategies are Divergence Trading Method, Forex LST System (LST stands for: Learn, Simulate, Trade), etc. You can learn how to use those strategies from him.

3.      Real winning traders should publish their genuine trading results. In the past, I mentioned some expert speculators who publish their tract records for people to see. There are many people who claim to know much about online trading, but when you ask them for their track records, they can’t show it. This is because they got know track records. They know much about trading, but they can’t make consistent gains. Vladimir is one of those rare breeds who make their track records public. This means that if you’ve followed his trading signals to the letter, you would’ve achieved the same results like him.

4.      However, you should know that good trading methods have winning and losing phases. The real thing is to have average winners that are much bigger than average losers over a long period of time. Personally, I’ve seen that a losing phase may hold out longer than an average trader expects. I can experience this phase for up to 4 months in a year, but I manage my risk effectively, avoiding large drawdowns, and still coming out ahead at the end of the year (no matter how small the positivity may be). There’s no way around this truth; you got to accept this or go do something else.

5.      Make your chart to be as simple as possible. It’s awful to see how many traders use complicated trading techniques (and in reality, complicated trading techniques don’t make more money than simple ones). The real secret to Holy Grail is in using a positive expectancy strategy and controlling yourself and your risk. Please clean up your chart, and make your life easy. Why should you put too many indicators, custom indicators, bots and semi-automated systems, only on one chart! Ah! You chart doesn’t need to look like Michelangelo’s paintings before you can become triumphant. Clean up your chart and keep things simple. KISS. 

6.      Some year ago, Vlad published an article titled “Brokers Horror Stories.” There are good brokers out there, and there are bad brokers. The kind of broker you choose will also play a big factor in your success or failure as a trader.  Good brokers make sure that their clients experience excellent services and customer support; and merely 1 or 2 disgruntled clients don’t really make them skunks (for no company is perfect). According to Vlad, some of the factors you need to consider before choosing a broker are: 1) Being authorized and regulated in the country where they have office, 2) Excellent customer support, 3) Competitive spreads, 4) Having been used and trusted by someone you know personally, 5) Meritorious awards, 6) Many accounts, funding and withdrawal options, 7) Being around for years, 8) Generous promos and so on.

Conclusion: Unsuccessful traders seek help because they lose consistently after approaching those who call themselves markets gurus. You can’t be a winning trader without learning what it takes to be a winning trader. Imagine starting your boxing career by challenging a world heavyweight champion. You know what the outcome will be, don’t you? Really, current heavyweight champions started somewhere; as they envied the heavyweight champions of those days. The trick in trading success is to practice winning trading methods over and over again, until it becomes your second nature, although no methods works 100% of the time.  Effective trading principles always work.

This article is ended by a quote from Vlad:

“Like love, trading is an international language.”

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders
 


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