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Thursday, May 29, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 2 - 6, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market has been moving downwards in a slow and tardy manner. Since early May 2014, the downward move that begun has taken the market down by over 380 pips. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is rational to expect that the downward move could continue, although the possibility of a transitory rally cannot be ruled out on the way. The support line at 1.3500 is our target for the next week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish  
This currency trading instrument has been caught in a slow and tardy mode also. After the ‘buy’ signal was generated earlier in the month of May 2014, the price has moved upwards by over 270 pips. Now, the possibility of the price moving higher cannot be ruled out, for the northward bias has been established. There could, nevertheless, be some pullbacks in the market along the way, but they ought not to take the price below the support levels at 0.8950 and 0.8900. Any movement below the support levels (especially the latter one) would mean the end of the northward bias. In the meantime, the price may trudge towards our target at the resistance level of 0.9000. It may even break it to the upside and move towards another resistance level at 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The Cable gave a spurious ‘buy’ signal last week. Because the price was unable to move higher and break the accumulation territory at 1.6900 to the upside, the Cable skydived and tested the accumulation territory at 1.6700. The ‘sell’ signal in the market has been confirmed: the price could continue trading lower, with the probability of reaching another accumulation territory at 1.6650.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a difficult market – a market in which false breakouts are no longer a curiosity. In addition, sustained trending moves are rather rare. Unless one is scalping or speculating on intraday basis, one may think of getting out of the market until a determined movement occurs. When it does occur, it is more probable that the price would go lower.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since early May 2014, the cross has gone down by close to 400 pips. The bearish outlook is still valid and may continue till next week, reaching a target at 137.00. It is rational to sell the cross on rallies.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The key word here is patience. If you're using the correct strategies, you can be sure that [a] bad run will end, it’s only a matter of time.” - Marcus de Maria



Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver (June 2014)

Here’s the current outlook on Gold and Silver.

GOLD (XAUUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
Gold was in an equilibrium phase for most of the month of May 2014, but price has now broken out in the direction of the bears. From a weekly high of 1301.28, the price has dived, reaching a low of 1255.77. This shows that the upwards move that occurred on May 26, 2014, was a classical example of a false breakout. With a Bearish Conformation Pattern in the market, the price is supposed to continue to move downwards, although there is a high possibility of a rally which is expected to be transitory in nature. The resistance level at 1277.00 ought to serve as a challenge to the expected rally, while the price may go further south and reach the support level at 1200.00 in June 2014. There is even a possibility that the support level might be breached to the downside.  


SILVER (XAGUSD)
Dominant Bias: Bearish
This is also a bear market – with an established bearish outlook on it. Although the extent of the southward journey is not as strong as that of Gold, it is expected that the price would go further south. The present price action was preceded by high volatility in the market (which lasted for more than two weeks).  In the month of June, the price could continue going further south, reaching the demand levels at 18.0000 and 17.5000 respectively.


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Wal-Mart Stock Dives on Panic Selling

From February 2014 to the end of May 2014, Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) was in a bullish bias. From the beginning of this month until now, the bias has become significantly bearish. This comes as a result of some panic selling, which has made the stock skydive.

Yes, the bears are pushing the price southwards and this may continue longer than is thought. The ADX period 14 has its line above the level 30, which shows a strong bias. The DM- is vividly above the DM+, which means the sellers have an upper hand. The MACD (default parameters) has both its histogram and signal lines below the zero line. This is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern, and therefore long trades are no longer sensible. Some biases are novel and some have been confirmed. This bias is relatively novel, and as well as confirmed.

It pays to trade only what you see, according to your trading methodology, and resist the feeling that you can predict tomorrow. This is a type of market in which the bear makes money – though a novice may only feel panicky. With the right guidance, you can learn the proper approach in this type of market. Some mentors out there can help. Truly, an instructor that could do everything to help you be a profitable trader is quite worth the effort.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“You have to accept that quality comes before quantity especially on the stock exchange – and many trades does not equal success.” – Dirk Stiller

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (June 2014)

Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP) is in a long-term bearish trend, though the trend last year was bullish. This reveals that it is only a matter of time before gains are given up – whether it takes months of years.

These shares are a good instance of choppy instrument. This is a kind of price action that favors those who look for objective demand and supply zones.  Right now, the price seems to have found a bottom at the support level of 80.00, which has posed a serious threat to the bearish trend.

In the chart, a price close above the EMA 21 would signify a possible uptrend (especially when the Williams’ % Range goes into the overbought region). Anything apart from this would mean the continuation of the extant bias.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“So you see, it's never too late to get started building your own fortune. Many people will sadly pass away with fortunes only in their mind, never to be shared with the rest of us. Whether their barriers were financial, emotional, or just a form of laziness, most people will not fulfill their true potential.” – Joe Ross


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

Monday, May 26, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (May 26 – June 6, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 101.932
Stop loss: 102.944
Take profit: 99.944

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 94.185
Stop loss: 95.185
Take profit: 92.184

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 93.839
Stop loss: 94.866
Take profit: 91.866

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 113.906
Stop loss: 114.933
Take profit: 111.933

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 139.066
Stop loss: 140.081
Take profit: 137.083

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 171.666
Stop loss: 172.698
Take profit: 169.679

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 26, 2014
Entry price: 87.138
Stop loss: 88.191
Take profit: 85.191


Recent performances
December 2013 = 5.0%
January 2014 = 2.1%
February 2014 = 4.5%
March 2014 = -9.7%
April 2014 = 0.0%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.




Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 26, 2014

The situation on the USD/CHF is now getting interesting. After a long period of siege and repeated bullish attacks, the price managed to close above the support level of 0.8950. For the bullish victory to continue, the price needs to move towards the resistance level at 0.9000.

EUR/USD:  After much determined effort on the side of the bears, the resistance line at 1.3650 was breached to the downside. It was not an easy task, for the price had been making that attempt since the middle of this month. It is now intriguing to see what the price would do next. According to the established bias, the price might continue trading downwards, going towards another support line at 1.3600.



USD/CHF: The situation on the USD/CHF is now getting interesting. After a long period of siege and repeated bullish attacks, the price managed to close above the support level of 0.8950. For the bullish victory to continue, the price needs to move towards the resistance level at 0.9000.  This week would thus see whether this target would be realized or not. Yes, the situation is interesting!

GBP/USD:  This market appears to be unable to sustain the recent bullish indication on it. From the distribution territory at 1.6900, the market nosedived and closed below the distribution territory at 1.6850. A test of the accumulation territory at 1.6800 would mean the end of the bullish indication; which means short trades may then be sought.

USD/JPY:  There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this pair, as it moves determinedly upwards. The price ought to easily breach the supply level at 102.00 to the upside, as it goes towards another supply level at 102.50.

EUR/JPY:  The southward outlook on this market remains valid, in spite of the current shallow rally in the market. The rally is currently being challenged at the supply zone of 139.00 – a zone from which price could nosedive.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

Learn from the Generals of the Markets:

Friday, May 23, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 26 - 30, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The dominant bias on the EUR/USD has been bearish for most part of this month. However, the adamant and obdurate support line at 1.3650 has been a major headache to the bears. As a result of this, the southward journey has been limited, e.g. the market has only moved down by 55 pips this week. The expectation is: the support line has to be broken to the downside so that the bearish journey can continue.  Should the support line get broken to the downside, the next price targets could be the support lines at 1.3600 and 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish  
The dominant bias on the USD/CHF has been bullish for most part of this month. Nevertheless, the recalcitrant and obstinate resistance level at 0.8950 has been a major problem to the bulls. As a result of this, the northward journey has been limited, e.g. the market has only moved up by 42 pips this week. The expectation is: the resistance level has to be broken to the upside so that the bullish journey can continue.  Should the resistance level get broken to the upside, the next price targets could be resistance levels at 0.9000 and 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish  
From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the price has moved upwards by over 150 pips. The price is currently challenging the distribution territory at 1.6900 – a vigorous challenge indeed! The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart ensures that the current bearish retracement remains shallow and another opportunity to buy long during such retracement.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the overall bias on this pair is bearish, there is a serious challenge to the bias. The price has closed above the demand level at 101.50, but it needs to close below it so that the bearish bias might continue. In fact, the price also needs to breach the demand level at 101.00 to the downside and continue its journey further downwards. On the other hand, a movement above the supply level at 102.00 would mean a serious jeopardy to the bearish bias, especially when the price closes above it.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument remains weak. One reason for this is the weakness in the EUR itself. The southward moved has been slow and tardy; and there is a need for the price to breach the demand zone at 138.50 to the downside so that the southward journey can continue.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“It is possible to make it big in trading if one has a clear idea of direction, degree, and timing.  One must know when to buy, when to sell, and when to stay out of the market.” - Roy Longstreet 



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Thursday, May 22, 2014

I Can’t Win Trading Competitions

“We’ve seen plenty of traders over the years make huge returns on their accounts, well over 1000 per cent in a relatively short period of time, but as soon as they hit a drawdown period they just as quickly give it all back. This is because they were trading well beyond risk limits in the first place.” – Charlie Burton

The currency markets have many benefits that are no longer secrets: the biggest daily turnover, inability of Smart Money to control the markets permanently to their favor, interesting fundamentals, high liquidity, 24-hour availability, low spreads, etc. As a result of the increasing popularity of the markets, many types of programs are coming up in the financial industry; and one of them is trading competitions.

I once participated in some of the competitions and never won a single one. In spite of my trading knowledge, I’ve never even ended in the top 50, not to mention the second or third position. Why?

On demo and live accounts, I don’t usually risk more than 0.5% or at most 1% per trade. I need to do this consistently so that it becomes my second nature. Trading is a game of survival, but in those kinds of competitions, even if I make 2000 pips in a month, my profits would only be 10% or 20%. Now, someone else could make less than 500 pips in a month and achieve 500% profits. The difference lies in the amount of risk per trade. Can you now see why I can’t win a trading contest?

In most competitions, a contestant who achieves the highest returns within the shortest time duration is usually declared the winner. A trading competition - usually a demo accounts competition – tends to last for one week or one month only. Every competitor thus strives to achieve hundreds or thousands of percentage of returns during the short period. I’ve seen a competition in which a participant made 3000% returns in less than one week! I’ve seen a trading competition in which a participant made 700% returns in a month. Does this means they’re the most proficient traders on the planet? The answer is NO.

When the market is favorable to your trading method, you’ll be making money with new orders, no matter what. A winning streak can last for days, weeks or months, before it’s alternated by a losing streak (before another winning streak comes again). It’s too common that most people who make money in winning streaks give back more than their profits during losing streaks, as a result of excessively high stakes and lack of risk control methods.

Most types of trading competitions encourage people to make the highest possible money as quickly as possible. This kind of indoctrination can’t favor traders that aspire for a lasting career. Just as speculators who get hundreds of percentage of profits because of excessively big position sizes, but soon they’re no longer in the markets; one who risks too much per trade is a gambler, but one who takes risk control method serious is a real trader. When a competing gambler is in a winning streak, she/he can make hundreds or thousands of percentage returns when 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% or 60% (or more) of the portfolio is risked per trade. Nevertheless, the higher the stake per trade, the higher the loss or the drawdown when something goes contrary to the trading method.  That’s why some of the so-called expert traders or trading champions later crashed and burned in the markets. They’ll still tell you trading is great and they can trade very well, but they’re no longer in the markets because their suicide trading methods backfired at them.

Would you prefer to get rich quickly and have a temporary career or would you want to make small and constant gains? What matters most to you: the safety of your account or big profits as soon as possible?

There are also certain trading competitions in which organizers rule that winners must accurately predict the exact price of a particular trading instrument within a specific period. Isn’t that hard? Market wizards all agree that future prices can’t be predicted, yet we can harness gains from them. How can I predict the exact future prices when I’m not clairvoyant or psychic?  If psychics could even do that, I guess they’d have become billionaire traders. Should you predict an exact future price within a specific period and win, it is by pure chance.

The Types of Trading Competitions I Can Win
There are types of trading competitions I can win, but sadly, they’re not that common in the Forex world.

I can win a trading competition that rules that winners would be those whose accounts are still intact and positive after making 1000 trades (or at least 500 trades) within some years. How many gamblers can win that type of competition? I can win a competition that gives awards to those who achieve the least amount of drawdowns after several months or years. I can win a trading competition that recognizes contestants who makes most pips, not most profits within several months.

Yes, if that kind of trading competition allows contestants to compete for 10 months or even years, I can win it. One week or one month is definitely too short to test the reliability of a trading system. 

A good trader is someone who deals with losing streaks successfully and recovers from them, not someone who makes great profits in winning streaks and crashes in losing streaks.

The most important thing a good trader can do is to keep an account permanently safe in the face of the vagaries of the markets. Making profits is a secondary aim, for there must be an intact capital before profits can be made. If the capital is gone, there’s no means of carrying out additional transactions that could be successful. One best way of keeping our accounts safe is to learn how permanently victorious traders have managed to keep their portfolios safe for decades. 

Conclusion: Most speculators who’ve made billions of dollars from the markets have become extremely rich because their portfolios are huge and they make relatively small, consistent gains. They haven’t become billionaires because they achieved 100% gains over and over and over again within very short time periods. They achieve their aims by looking for low risk investment opportunities, and capitalizing on them by giving their winners enough leeway. This is easier said than done, for most traders find it difficult to run their winners – it’s really difficult. But it’s essential for long-term survival.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“Pace yourself, take small gains and small losses, trading is not a sprint towards riches, it’s a marathon towards financial independency.” – Alesh Patel



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Tower Resources: A Bad Market for the Bulls

Tower Resources shares (LSE:TRP) are a very weak market – a bad market for the bulls. Nevertheless, it is a good market for the bears, who are currently smiling to their banks. It would be a bad decision to go long on this kind of market. Some people know the decisions they want to make are bad, yet they go on to implement them.

The price has broken below the resistance level at 3.000, going further downwards. Meanwhile, the RSI period 14 is below the level 50. This is an indication of a bearish signal, and the price may reach the support level at 1.000. The current bullish candle is merely a noise.

You can benefit from this price action by going short; keeping your risk under control. You cannot enjoy higher returns while you remain conservative or aloof; neither can you make huge gains without increasing your risk.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“When I first started trading, most of the time I felt alone, confused, and completely bewildered. It took me over 3 years just to break even, and a full decade to become consistent… No financial situation is permanent, unless you decide it is.” – Louise Bedford

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals




This is an Opportunity to Make 100 Points on Bowleven

Bowleven stock (LSE:BLVN) has been in a long-term downtrend, with the inability to move significantly upwards. Someone who went short last year would have made some easy money. Even novice traders make money when there is a sustained bias that holds out very long.

In the chart, 4 EMAs are used. They are EMAs 10, 20, 50 and 100. The color that stands for each EMA is shown at the top left side of the chart. All the EMAs show that the stock is weak – occasional short-term rallies are often accompanied by southward moves. Such rally started at the beginning of May 2014, and the price has been coming down gradually since then.

The price may reach the support level at 20.00. This is a good chance to make some quick bucks. However, there is a possibility that the aforementioned support level may reject further downward trend and a sustained uptrend could start from there.

It is imperative that you take advantage of the price action with good timing. Your trading results have to do with the end results including possibilities.  Profit-making is not the birthright of Smart Money only.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“Our low confidence can drive us further and further away from the market and many potentially successful traders have given up completely, perceiving themselves as failures but not recognizing that the reason for it is purely because they were not prepared and they failed to practice discipline.” –Razi Hammouda

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals 



Monday, May 19, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (May 19 - 30, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 101.425
Stop loss: 100.429
Take profit: 103.429

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 94.614
Stop loss: 93.594
Take profit: 96.594

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 93.315
Stop loss: 92.301
Take profit: 95.301

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 113.703
Stop loss: 112.681
Take profit: 115.681

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 139.038
Stop loss: 138.048
Take profit: 141.045

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 170.580
Stop loss: 169.592
Take profit: 172.592

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Buy
Entry date: May 19, 2014
Entry price: 87.467
Stop loss: 86.472
Take profit: 89.472


Recent performances
December 2013 = 5.0%
January 2014 = 2.1%
February 2014 = 4.5%
March 2014 = -9.7%
April 2014 = 0.0%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, May 18, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 19, 2014

  From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the Cable has bounced upwards. The upward bounce should pause at the distribution territory of 1.6850, so that the present bearish outlook may continue to be valid.

EUR/USD:  The EURUSD trended gracefully to the downside last week. However, the graceful downward movement has been challenged at the support line of 1.3650. That support line needs to be breached to the downside, so that the bearish outlook may continue to be valid. We envisage the support line at 1.3600 as our target for this week.


USD/CHF: This pair moved gracefully to the upside last week. However, the graceful upward movement has been challenged at the resistance line of 0.8950. That resistance line needs to be breached to the upside, so that the bullish outlook may continue to be valid. We envisage the resistance line at 0.9000 as our target for this week.

GBP/USD:  From the accumulation territory at 1.6750, the Cable has bounced upwards. The upward bounce should be paused at the distribution territory of 1.6850, so that the present bearish outlook may continue to be valid. The price should reach the accumulation territory at 1.6700 this week. Any movement above the aforementioned distribution territory will put the bearish outlook in jeopardy.

USD/JPY:  The bias on this market has been bearish, but there is a stubborn barrier at the demand level of 101.50. Around this level, there has been a serious battle between the bull and the bear – as the bull is giving way with great reluctance. The price should go more southward, thus breaking the stubborn demand level at 101.50 to the downside.

EUR/JPY:  Here too, the demand zone at 139.00 has been battered mercilessly, since the bears are determined to push the price lower than that demand zone. Should they succeed in doing this, the next price target would be at the demand zone of 138.50.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group

Learn from the Generals of the Markets:

Friday, May 16, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 19 - 23, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument has been bearish since last week. From a high of 1.3993, the price dropped by over 340 pips, reaching the support line at 1.3650. The support line has brought about a temporary halt in the bearish journey. This halt resulted in an upward bounce that has taken the price above the support line at 1.3700. The support line at 1.3750 should act as a barrier to further rally in the context of a downtrend. The bearish journey is supposed to continue when the price breaks the support line at 1.3650 to the downside, targeting another support line at 1.3550.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish  
The current upward move has been the strongest trending move on the USD/CHF since April 2014. From a low of 0.8700, the price skyrocketed by over 250 pips, topping at the resistance level of 0.8950. There has been a short-term pullback which has been challenged at the support level of 0.8900. In case of more determined bears’ machination, the pullback could also be challenged at the support level of 0.8850. Generally the price ought to go further upwards, breaking the resistance level at 0.8950 to the upside as it goes towards another target at the resistance level at 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
The pair gave way to gravity as well: it went down toward the accumulation territory at 1.6750 before the price experienced some shallow rally. The rally is seen as a temporary thing in the context of a downtrend. It is something that allows the bears to sell short at a better price. The next target is at another accumulation territory of 1.6650, which could be reached within the next several trading days.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a confirmed bearish outlook on this market, though the bearish run is not as strong as other JPY pairs. There is also a recalcitrant demand level at 101.50. This demand level has succeeded in rejecting further bearish move – it did that last week and this week. The price needs to breach the demand level to the downside and close below it, for the bearish outlook to continue o be valid.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross is in a downtrend and it is currently challenging the demand zone at 139.00. The demand zone has a high probability of being breached to the downside. When this happens, the price could target another demand zone at 138.00.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“With the changes in the perception of Forex trading from being a high speed, high risk gamble, to being a scientifically driven investment vehicle, supported by social media, there are likely to be many more Forex traders in the coming years.” - Razi Hammouda 



Wednesday, May 14, 2014

The Blatant Realities of Trading – Part 2

“I’m a breakout trader, and I’ll tell you, over time I have had to learn over and over again to resist the temptation: “This thing is going to go up, I need to get in before it breaks out of this pattern.” - Peter Brandt

Facing the realities of the markets successfully is a must for anyone who wants to enjoy permanent success in the market. When our nature and mindset blend with what it takes to be a successful trader, the “challenges” are seen as normality. The “normality” is then seen as a real blessing. 

In the past, few people were fortunate to start enjoying success as soon as they began their trading career. Many people had to grapple with the markets before they started to enjoy success. During the time, they learned hard lessons.* You too can begin to trade like the pro when you adapt your trading approaches to suit that of the pro. If you ignore the facts, then I’m sorry for you.

Here are specific suggestions. These suggestions came as a result of decades of studies of the realities of the markets, and they’ll definitely help you.

1.      You can’t guarantee what the markets might do next. You just need to trade what you currently see in the charts. Success isn’t about accurate prediction of price developments; it’s all about risk and money management. A gambler that trades with 95% accuracy can end up ruining her/his portfolio. A good risk manager can end up making money with only 40% a or far less.

2.      If a market is trendless (in an equilibrium phase) and there is no clear direction on it, please don’t trade it unless you’re a scalper.

3.      Veterans of the markets agree that it pays to follow the trend. Don’t go against the line of the least resistance.

4.      When the dominant bias is northward, you can increase you odds of success when you trade only ‘buy’ signals and ignore ‘sell’ signals. Reverse the logic for a scenario when the dominant bias is southward.

5.      You’ll do yourself a great favor if you can learn from the generals of the markets and follow their trading principles and advice.

6.      Your trading method must fit your personality. If you’re always busy with a good job outside the trading world, an intraday method can’t pay you. If you’re naturally impatient, a position trading method can’t pay you. Your performances improve only when you use a strategy that agrees with your psychology. 

7.      When you’re faithful to your positive expectancy trading method, you don’t make a mistake if you lose. Mistakes are made only when you betray your trading rules, even if the betrayal results in gains. The recent positive results shouldn’t make you overconfident; neither should you become too afraid to trade the next setup owing to the recent negative trade.

8.      Effective risk control method and optimal position sizing techniques will ensure your everlasting victory as a speculator. This is your life insurance in the markets. Risk the same amount of money on each trade, and keep the risk very small so that you’ll remain indifferent to the outcome of an individual trade. An optimal stop, regardless of its demerits, would end up serving your best interest.

9.      Open you orders according to the winning principles that give you an edge, not according to your irrational emotions.

You’d want to agree with me: We don’t know what the markets might do next but we can be victorious, irrespective of what the markets do. One wise author of a trading book responded to a question. He said he didn’t know which direction the next significant movement would follow, but he could survive any adverse movement or make nice profits from favorable movement. According to him, No-one knows when the next storm is coming, but we can take measures and build a ship that can withstand the storm. What more? The experience can even be satisfactory.

Always bear this truth in mind. The markets offer you financial freedom, and numerous traders have already attained it.  Ultimately, you can become an affluent trader.

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“I’ve developed every type of system, fast and slow, done well with most, badly with a few, but in the end, I prefer trading the trend.” – Perry Kaufman

*There are many ways to start enjoying quick success in the markets, but that would be discussed in another article.


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals



Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Learn from the Generals of the Markets

“If I tell you how I would manage that [$100,000,000] now, I would no longer have a competitive edge.” – Perry Kaufman

No matter what your trading results have been in the past, trading remains one of the best ways to the ultimate attainment of financial freedom. During the recent global credit crunch, many people became fearful of the future, because economic crises sometimes compel good organizations to dismiss their responsible workers.

Many people did not realize this until it happened to them. They thought they only needed to work hard, and their job would be secure, and they would enjoy the ensuing financial security. But after the myth has been busted, many people became so anxious about a poor financial future and the effects it could have on their family.

Then many people started seeing trading as a great option: you can trade successfully anywhere, as long as you have access to a good internet connection and then enjoy financial security. The riches inherent in the markets are limitless, though it would be realistic to walk towards this gradually. Please renew your determination and partake in the journey to financial freedom.

‘Learn from the Generals of the Markets’ is a ground-breaking book.

For those who want to attain success by trial and error, it would take many years of harrowing experience to attain success. Nevertheless, for those who are guided by the principles adopted and revealed by the traders who are already victorious, the learning curve can be sped up and the journey made smoother. This means that it will take a far shorter period to attain success if you learn from the industry experts.

You can trade successfully!

This piece is ended with the quote below:

“[Aim] for less and/or less complex rules to build a stable and robust trading system… Churning out higher returns in the end is near to impossible without continuously risking less along the way.” – Dirk Vandycke


Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

A Southward Breakout is Expected on Motive Television

Motive Television stock (LSE:MTV) is in a vivid equilibrium phase, but a significant breakout is expected very soon. Equilibrium markets do not last forever and as such, the price would eventually break out and go in a direction determinedly.

The equilibrium phase is brought about as a result of  less and less trading activity. This is what results in a drop in volatility. When Smart Money influences the price movement, intelligent traders would perceive their action and they would trade accordingly. This is what causes a sustained movement in one direction.


Based on the price action in the chart, it is more likely that the market would fall further when a breakout does occur. The price is almost closing under the SMA (Simple Moving Average) period 30 and the Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region, showing that the stock is weak. Generally the equilibrium move reveals the bears’ machination. The bulls are afraid to push the price upwards. The cockroach would like to dance, but the fear of the chicken prevents it from doing so.

When the market falls, it may reach the accumulation territory at 0.014. However, small lot sizes are recommended, since high volatility is envisaged. Some speculators think that bigger lot sizes are needed to reap bigger gains. They think they need to bet the farm in order to become rich. Is that so?

Anyone who prefers easy life would not have what it takes to face the realities of life. The same is true of trading.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“The horrible truth is that most people never do a freaking thing! The may want the results the markets can provide. They may dream about what their life could look like. But – unless they take action, they’ll never move forward… The best time to make the choice that will put you in the top 5% of traders was 10 years ago. The next best time is now. You want your life to change? You need to change.”- Louise Bedford (Tradinggame.com.au)


Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals


Monday, May 12, 2014

JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Signals (May 12 - 23, 2014)

Instrument: USDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 102.172
Stop loss: 101.179
Take profit: 100.178

Instrument: AUDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 95.640
Stop loss: 96.652
Take profit: 93.652

Instrument: CADJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 93.765
Stop loss: 94.779
Take profit: 91.779

Instrument: CHFJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 115.075
Stop loss: 116.104
Take profit: 113.104

Instrument: EURJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 140.560
Stop loss: 141.573
Take profit: 138.573

Instrument: GBPJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 172.345
Stop loss: 173.366
Take profit: 170.366

Instrument: NZDJPY
Order: Sell
Entry date: May 12, 2014
Entry price: 88.070
Stop loss: 89.092
Take profit: 86.092


Recent performances
December 2013 = 5.0%
January 2014 = 2.1%
February 2014 = 4.5%
March 2014 = -9.7%
April 2014 = 0.0%

Note: The period mentioned above reflects the duration of an open position taken from the signals. For you to know the principles and reasons behind the signals, please see the article titled “An Introduction to a JPY Pairs Pullbacks Trading Method.” The trade and risk management recommendations for open positions are also contained therein. The URL that directs to the article would soon be made available.

Disclaimer: Trading signals are provided for information purposes only and shouldn’t be construed as trading advice.



Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Daily analysis of major pairs for May 12, 2014

 From a low of 0.8702, the USD/CHF shot upwards significantly. The pair trended upwards by over 160 pips within 2 days. This is the strongest upward move since early April 2014.

EUR/USD: As a result of exponential weakness in the Euro, this currency trading instrument has formed a Bearish Confirmation Pattern and the price is supposed to continue to nosedive this week. This is true of all other EUR pairs. From a high of 1.3993, the price dropped by over 240 pips. This could be a beginning of another long-term downtrend: the price could reach the support line at 1.3700 this week.


USD/CHF: From a low of 0.8702, the USD/CHF shot upwards significantly. The pair trended upwards by over 160 pips within 2 days. This is the strongest upward move since early April 2014. Needless to say, the established bias is now bullish and it is expected to continue this week. Our targets are set at the resistance levels of 0.8900 and 0.8950. In the course of this, the support level at 0.8800 ought to act as a barrier to possible pullbacks along the way.

GBP/USD:  This pair has also dropped in a serious mode. This is possible because of the perceived strength in the USD. The accumulation territory at 1.6850 has been challenged and the price needs to go below that territory in order for the bearish bias to get confirmed.

USD/JPY:  On Friday, there was no significant movement in this market. The outlook remains bearish, but the price needs to breach the demand level at 101.50 to the downside, so that the bias can continue to be valid.

EUR/JPY:  The price action on this currency trading instrument has resulted in an established bearish outlook. The price could reach the demand zone at 139.00 this week.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders

Friday, May 9, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 12 – 16, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The dominant bullish bias still exists in this market, but it is seriously under threat.
The price attempt to reach the resistance line at 1.4000 failed, and the price got corrected significantly. Should price test the support line at 1.3800 or cross it to the downside, then the bullish bias would be rendered completely useless. Until that happens, it might be assumed that the price could rally i.e. if it could maintain its presence above the support level at 1.3800.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
The outlook here is bearish, though the situation looks very precarious. The bulls have been very active recently: the bears have been subjugated and they need to prevent the price from remaining above the resistance level at 0.8800. The inability of the price to fall back below the aforementioned resistance level would result in the bearish outlook being rendered invalid. The invalidation would be especially strong when the price succeeds in challenging the resistance level at 0.8850.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bullish bias is still in place, but the price has been unable to cross the distribution territory at 1.7000 to the upside. In fact, the price has been consolidating to the downside for the past few days. The accumulation territories 1.6900 and 1.6850 have a job to do – they have to prevent the price from slashing though them and closing below them successively. This is the only thing that can keep the dominant bias intact. As long as the price is unable to breach those accumulation territories to the downside, it could be expected that price would rally from this point.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The recent equilibrium phase on this currency trading instrument has resulted in a slow southward propensity. However, the pair has met a great challenge at the demand level of 101.
50. The demand level has been tested several times, but there is a need for the price to breach it to the downside so that the southward move could continue.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The sudden weakness in the Euro has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. Short trades are currently recommended. The cross should be trading below the price zone at 140.50, as it goes towards the price zone at 140.00. On the other hand, there might be some short-term rally from the aforementioned demand level.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"People ask me when I'm going to retire, well… I actually have retired. This [trading] is the most under-worked and overpaid occupation in the world."- Chris Tate


Eye-opening trading lessons: http://www.harriman-house.com/experttraders




Thursday, May 8, 2014

Leda Braga: A High Earning Hedge Fund Manager

LEARN FROM THE GENERALS OF THE MARKETS - PART 48

“I’d never work for anyone else again.   Plus, I love what I do.” – Dr. Van. K. Tharp (Trading specialist)

Leda Braga, a female trader, is one of the highest paid funds mangers in the world. Holding a PhD in engineering, she’s the president of BlueCrest Capital Management (which was founded by Williams Reeves and Michael Platt in 2000). The firm has offices in a number of counties.

Leda manages the firm’s biggest portfolio which is worth $16,000,000,000, using a proprietary trend-following approach. BlueCrest itself has a total of $37,000,000,000 as a portfolio. She’s an active researcher; always looking for better investment opportunities and strategies. She’s gained an estimated 16.67 per cent per annum since the year 2005.  She’s personally earned about $5,000,000 as a result of her trading activities.

Her firm’s official website is: Bluecrestcapital.com/

Lessons
Here are some of the lessons that can be learned from Leda:

  1. Leda uses trend-following approaches to tackle the markets, which means that trend-following methods work.

  1. No trading method is perfect. The portfolio managed by Leda sometimes reaches break-even or flat performance. When your trading method performs below expectation, you’d need to take it as a normal thing. It happens to expert traders as well; so it doesn’t mean you’re not a good trader.

  1. Leda first worked as a lecturer and researcher before she inadvertently dived into the ocean of trading. She’s never regretted her decision. Before she joined BlueCrest, she didn’t place real trades (though she’d been exposed to the markets). No matter what you’re currently doing for a living or as a hobby, you’ve the potential to become a great trader. The seed is in you. The fact that you’ve not placed real trades now doesn’t mean you can’t be a great trader in future. Trading would become more and more interesting in future, and you merely need to adapt so that you can survive. Many talented students with mathematical and scientific backgrounds are showing interest in trading and hedge fund world. They can certainly make great contributions to trading. This profession is highly competitive and hard. Therefore you must find ways to become better than others and have an edge.

  1. According to one source, Leda’s passion is the continual testing and refining of selected trading systems. Her firm emphasizes research and analysis. If you’ve great trading systems, you might want to find ways to improve them. No matter how good you’re at trading, there’s always room for improvement.

  1. Mighty oaks from little acorns grow. There was a time when BlueCrest’s fund was only $300 million; now it’s worth $37 billion. Try to be successful on smaller accounts first, then you may be worthy to handle much larger accounts. Your success with smaller portfolios would surely take you to greater heights.

  1. Technological advancement has made trading more enjoyable. There have been structural changes in the markets, including the way traders speculate. There are more transparency and better quotes. Electronic trading has been a boon to serious traders.

  1. Leda thinks that technology will keep on playing vital roles in the trading world. She forecasts that in future, science and technology will have a great influence on trading.

  1. Should funds managers try emerging markets? Yes, but they need to weigh their pros and cons. There are good market names in South America, Africa and Asia. These markets should be watched for excellent investing and trading opportunities, for they’ll become very attractive as they grow and stabilize. But there are some hitches to be wary of: tradable products, changing regulations, liquidity, opening/closing hours, sizes limitations and other restrictions.  Truly, regulations on emerging markets keep changing just like a highway code that keeps changing while one is driving, it would make safe driving difficult. You must make sure you know what you’re doing – most traders don’t.

Conclusion: Author Dennis Fisher wrote that at the first battle of the Marne during the First World War, French lieutenant general Ferdinand Foch sent out a communiqué saying: “My center is giving way, my right is retreating. Situation excellent. I am attacking.” Dennis went on to say that the lieutenant general’s willingness to see hope in a tough situation eventually led to victory for his troops. (Our Daily Bread, January 4, 2014). You may even experience negativity with your first trade ever, yet you can become a good trader in future. Many experienced pros can testify that they’ve been trading for 40 years or 50 years and they still love the markets. There will be the trial of our commitment to trading success; it happens to the pros of the markets, and it will happen to us. The markets are full of rewarding experiences that can satisfy our hearts and make us happy, rich and good examples in the trading industry.

Leda Braga, who believes that the basis of successful trading is backed up by mathematical justification, says white box trading is better than black box trading. Her quote ends this piece:

"We're actually a white box, the white of the mind. We are fully auditable. If you are a pension fund with long-term liabilities, you want some reassurance that the business is sustainable. The hedge fund business is filled with very talented people, but talented people retire. What we do, this effort to articulate the investment process through algorithms, though equations, through code, means that the intellectual property exists in its own right. If I disappear tomorrow, it's fine."




Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Blinkx – the Bears Are Happy

Blinkx stock (LSE:BLNX) is a bear market and the bears are happy as they follow the downward trend. The price has been falling since the beginning of the year 2014. In recent times, the price has been consolidating, while it is clear that further upward push is being rejected. The price could continue trending further downwards.


Even those who follow the trend on simulation mode would have made clean virtual gains. If you cannot make gains in simulation mode, how can you do that on real portfolios? The EMA 21 is sloping downwards, and the Williams’ % Range period 20 is also sloping downwards after being in the oversold situation for some time. There is currently a bearish candle forming in the chart, and it would lead to a renewed ‘sell’ signal when the price closes again below the EMA. There is a target at the accumulation territory of 70.00.

Any technical bounces in this market would continue to proffer short-selling opportunities. With some of the downtrends in the markets, it is clear that those who forecast rally on short-term technical bounces for fundamental reasons have sometimes been proven wrong, irrespective of the fact that they are highly educated and paid.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“You can’t be worried about taking a loss. In fact, you need to be able to embrace a loss. It’s just part of the process. If you can’t cut a trade and take a small loss then you’ll
never be a trader.” – Perry Kaufman

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders



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