Weekly Trading Update (January 14 – 18, 2013)

EURUSD

Primary trend: Bullish

The pair moved up by more than 300 pips last week (January 7 – 11, 2013). All technical indicators that are put on this chart shows bullish confirmation pattern. The bullish scenario is expected to continue this week. Though there could be some pullbacks in the near-term, the next price target would easily be the resistance line at 1.3400 and then the resistance line at 1.3450.

USDCHF

Primary trend: Bearish

The USDCHF pair plummeted seriously last week; by close to 160 pips. All the technical indicators that are put on the USDCFH chart testify to a bearish confirmation pattern. It is still expected that the bearish plunge will continue, given the weakness in the USD. The next price level that would be reached this week is at the support level at 0.9100, and then the support level at 0.9000.

GBPUSD

Primary trend: Bullish

Unlike the Euro, the Cable is not that strong versus the Greenback. Some bleak economic outlook might be responsible for this. Overall, the Cable was bullish last week, but not significantly. With some luck, perhaps the Cable could rise up a little bit more, especially if the Euro is also bullish this week. Otherwise, the Cable would trade sideways and oscillate between the distribution territory at 1.6200 and accumulation territory at 1.6100.

USDJPY

Primary trend: Bullish

Far beyond expectations, the USDJPY continues to break one supply level after the other – to the upside. Well, there is no end in sight for this outlook. Because, all technical indicators that are put on the 4-hour chart will ultimately support the northward outlook. Should this outlook hold out long enough, the market might reach the supply zone at 90.00 this week, and then another supply zone at 90.50.   

EURJPY

Primary trend: Bullish

The EURJPY, like most other JPY pairs, was also involved in some noteworthy northward outlook. The cross seems determined to go on being bullish, so the ultimate target for this week is at the supply zone around 119.50, and then the supply zone at 120.00. Since the cross moved up by more than 450 pips last week, this target is not far-fetched.

Conclusion: The world of speculation would go on being monitored, but it does not mean that the uncertainties of the future or downtrends would be removed. Sudden price moves occur in the trading world because of greed and fear – a phenomenon that is no longer new, as market players cause the markets to move as they call new trades and use modern electronic trading devices and core speculative strategies. Mostly, many traders, institutional and private, may not be able to move the markets always. Your mind ought to be made up even prior to risking your portfolio. Moreover, market players affirm that transactions would expose some part of their portfolios. If a day speculator stops their activities, even investors may not get the prices they want, and this would cause many adverse chain reaction, including unavailability of trends.  

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Overall, traders should make an effort to win the largest possible amounts in

their profitable trades and only have small losing trades.” – Marc Rivalland

Azeez Mustapha

www.paxforex.com

Weekly Trading Signal (January 9, 2013)

 CHFJPY: SELL

In the past few weeks, the CHFJPY cross was in an overall bullish mode. Just above the price zone of 95.50, and before the price could get to the supply zone of 96.00, further bullish bias was rejected. From this phase, the price nosedived by around 150 pips (though not without some intermittent rallies). Last week, the price fell below the Exponential Moving Average 21, but the RSI period 14 did not fall below the level 50, which revealed the price action as a false signal. This week, the price fell below the EMA 21 again, and this time around the RSI period 14 plummeted below the level 50. It can be seen that the price has closed below the EMA 21: this is a ‘sell’ signal. One may target the demand zone at 90.00 – the stop might be put at the supply zone at 96.00. The price is currently at 94.34.

Chart: 4 hour

 

Source: www.paxforex.com

 

 

Annual Trading Forecasts On Major Pairs (2013)

EURUSD

Primary trend: Bullish

The EURUSD has been in a moderate bullish mode – save for the last bearish week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013). Really the moderate bullish outlook still has much room to go, but there would be some serious short-term and medium term pullbacks along the way. These pullbacks could provide nice opportunities for day traders to make some quick bucks. The short-term pullback could take the price downwards to the support line of 1.3000, while the medium-term pullback could take it downwards towards the support line of 1.2500. Generally, this year’s rallies could take the pair towards the resistance line at 1.4000.  

 

USDCHF

Primary trend: Bearish

The USDCHF pair has been caught in some moderate bearish mode – save for the last bullish week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013). Ultimately, the price on this market could fall towards the support level at 0.8000, even breaking it downwards in this year. We should note that this assumption does not rule out the possibilities of short-term and medium term rallies in this context of the overall southward bias. These rallies could take the price to the support levels at 0.9500 in the near term and 0.9900 in the medium term. But the US Dollar and the Swiss Franc would not come to parity this year.

 

 

GBPUSD

Primary trend: Bullish

The Cable is in for an exciting year, as a new Governor of the Bank of England is expected to assume office by the middle of this year. There are chins in the air, and I can say without mincing words that the Cable would trend upwards for the most past of the year 2013 – though there would be some southward corrections along the way. The corrections might push the price lower to the accumulation zone at 1.6000, and another accumulation zone at 1.5500 (this may be the worse-case scenario for the year). Normally, the primary trend should take the price towards the distribution zone at 1.7000.

 

USDJPY

Primary trend: Bullish

For about 15 weeks, this pair has been in a significant bullish mode. Can we say that the price has gone too far (when most indicators are showing overbought conditions)? Nope. It is yet assumed that the price would continue going upwards, and may do so for the rest of this year. At least this rally would eventually reach the supply territory at 89.00; going towards the supply territory of 90.00. The northward move would be slow but steady. On the downside, some near-term and medium-term bearish retracements could take the price towards the demand territories at 88.00 and 87.50 respectively.   

 

 

EURJPY

Primary trend: Bullish

This cross is in a bullish mode, and would be predominantly bullish for the most part of this year, with some pullbacks along the way. Talking about these expected pullbacks, the price might retrace towards the demand territory at 115.00 in the near term. Experienced intraday market speculators would be proffered with excellent money-making opportunities when these pullbacks materialize. In the medium term, it might pull back towards the supply territory at 114.00. But in the long term, the primary trend might push the price upwards to the supply territory at 116.00, and eventually towards another supply territory at 117.00.

 

Conclusion: Current price levels are the products of buying and selling pressures in the markets. When there is a long trading signal, there would be a pullback at some point. This is the ideal place to enter a new long order (the same is also true of short side). For the analyses above, weekly charts are used.

 

This article is concluded with the quote below:

 

“Technical analysis is like a set of headlights on a car. It doesn't show you all the way home, but it does illuminate a patch of ground ahead, allowing you to drive more safely, as long as you do it at a reasonable speed.” – Dr. Alexander Elder

 

 

Azeez Mustapha

 

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

 

www.paxforex.com

 

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

 

NB: Trading has become a calling!

 

Source: www.paxforex.com

 

What’s So Special About Mark Carney?

Mark Joseph Carney is an economic giant who’s now constantly making headlines. Even his critics can’t deny his achievements.

 

Meet the Economic Giant

Mark was born in March 16, 1965. He was educated at Francis Xavier High School in Edmonton, Harvard University, St Peter's College, Oxford and, Nuffield College, Oxford (bagging a PhD in economics in the year 1995).  For 13 years, he worked for Goldman Sachs at their various offices in important cities. Between the year 2004 and the year 2007, he worked at the Canadian Department of Finance. From the year 2003 to the year 2004, he was a deputy governor of the Bank of Canada. In February 2008, he became the 8^th Governor of the Bank of Canada. He’s also serving as Chairman of the G20's Financial Stability Board (assuming that post in the year 2011).

 

What’s So Special About Mark Carney?

Mark is said to have saved Canada from the adverse financial circumstances of the late-2000s. And as a result of this, he was given accolades by top financial magazines. This feat was achieved by giving enough liquidity to the Canada’s financial system, keeping Canadian banks well funded, keeping interest rates very low, and other conservative measures. The Canadian economy has survived the global credit crunch, and is now doing well.

 

On November 2012, George Osborne (the British Chancellor of the Exchequer) made it public that Mark would be the next Governor of the Bank of England. He’s expected to succeed Sir Mervyn King at the end of June 2013. He’ll be the 1^st Governor of the Bank of England who’s not a Briton, since the founding of the Bank in the year 1694. The official term for a governor of the Bank of England is 8 years, but Mark has mentioned the possibility of stepping down after 5 years. His annual remuneration is close to $1 million USD – far more than his predecessor.

 

Mark Carney has enjoyed enviable academic career, professional career, and the glare of publicity. He’s highly paid and would even be paid higher. Because he shielded Canada from the adverse effects of the world financial crises (while many other countries languish), he’s now seen as someone who can bring Midas Touch to the British economy. In order to achieve this, the Bank would be given more powers.

 

I wish Mark Carney the best of luck in his career. I hope he’ll be able to meet the expectations of the British people, and return the British economy to an enviable position in the world scene.  However, the strategies that work in one context might fail in another context. What works in one country might fail in another, as a result of many factors that space and the time would not permit me to mention. The best central bank governor isn’t a magician. In the midst of these accolades and honors, Mark should tread very carefully, for the whole world is now watching him. If he does well, the accolades and honors will continue, thus increasing. If not, the praises and commendations would turn to morbid criticisms. Rather than being realistic, the public are often idealistic. This moment, the public may say: “The crown is ideal.” The next moment, the public may say: “The crown isn’t ideal.”  So that ‘Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord!’ won’t be turned into ‘Crucify him! Crucify him!’

 

Conclusion: Whatever the Bank of England does under Mark will have profound impacts on the British economy and the Cable (and perhaps Europe and/or the world). Nevertheless, the good news for Forex traders the world over is that, whatever happens to the Cable; whether it goes up or it goes down, we can make money from it by going long or going short.

 

This article is ended with the quote below:

 

“…However, ensure that you never get too optimistic and take bigger and bigger risks as a result of overconfidence.” –Steven Giles

 

Source: www.paxforex.com

 

Weekly Trading Signal (January 3, 2013)

EURGBP: SELL

There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the EURGBP chart as this analysis shows. 2 indicators are used (coupled with price action): the Simple Moving Average (SMA) period 21 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) period 20. The price had been going upwards until the last week. The horizontal red line at the upper side of the chart shows where further rally was rejected. On December 28, 2012, the price started coming down. That same day, the price crossed the SMA 21 to the downside and closed below it. At this time too, the RSI 20 has crossed the level 50 downwards. On January 2, 2013, the price gapped down significantly, showing strong bearish pressure. There could be a short trade, with stop loss around 0.83000, while targeting the price level at 0.75110. At the time of writing this forecast, the EURGBP was trading at 0.81119.

 

Source: www.paxforex.com