Monthly Forecasts for CFDs (September 2016)

AUS200

Dominant bias: Bearish

AUS200 dipped at the beginning of August, and moved sideways till last week, when it went down significantly. The bias has turned bearish, and unless price goes above the resistance line at 5620.0 to effect a new bullish outlook on the market. This month, further dips are expected, which would enable bears to reach the support lines at 5350.0, 5250.0 and 5200.0 respectively.     

SPX500

Dominant bias: Neutral  

SPX500 has recently experienced what can be called an unprecedented volatility contraction in the last few decades. The market went flat throughout August 2016 – an action that has brought about a neutral bias which essentially started in July. This neutral bias would remain in place this September, until there is an end to it before the end of the month or early next month. Yes, the sideways movement would end as price goes conspicuously upwards or downwards. On the upside, there would not be any protracted bullish movement any longer, since the bullish phase has already reached maturity; and on the downside, price would decline seriously in case anything awakens the slumbering bears.

US30

Dominant bias: Neutral  

This market also did not go upwards or downward significantly last month, which has resulted in a sideways phase. Price would continue to swing to and fro within resistance level at 18670.0 and the support level at 18240.0; until something forces it to go above that resistance level or below the support level. When the market gains momentum, most probable direction would be southward, because smaller timeframes like 4-hour and hourly charts reveal that bears are currently making some covert attempt to end the neutral bias against bulls.    

GER30

Dominant bias: Bullish  

As it was anticipated last month, this trading instrument was able to go above the high of June 23, 2016, which was 10470.8 (which had been our goal since the large pullback of June 24), therefore enabling buyers to fully recover their recent losses. The bias remains bullish in the daily chart and neutral in the 4-hour chart. Bullish effort is noticeable in the market, as it closed with bullish candles in daily and 4-hour charts. This means that bulls are still willing to push price upwards this month, which could reach the supply levels at 10805.0, 10855.0 and 10900.0. These targets are attainable this year.   

FRA40

Dominant bias: Bullish

Just like GER30, FRA40 also closed on a bullish note last Friday. In August, price reached a low of 4290.4 and a high of 4525.9. Bulls are also willing to effect further northward movement, for there are Bullish Confirmation Patterns in the 4-hour and daily charts. Price is now at the highest level since April 2016, and the achievement for this month would be to break above the high of April 2016, which is located at 4612.9.  

Source: www.tallinex.com

  

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Daily analysis of major pairs for September 5, 2016

The USD/JPY cross has continued the bullish journey it started on August 26, 2016. Since then, price has gone upwards 400 pips, now around the supply level at 104.00, which was tested last week and could be retested this week. This bias on this pair, as well as other JPY pairs, is bullish. Until there is a noteworthy change in the market, long trades would be logical.

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD underwent a measure of bearish activity last week. Bulls made attempt to push up the market on Thursday and Friday, but bears prevented that from happening as they halted further upward movement, thus saving the current bearish signal. Unless price goes above the resistance line at 0.9850, the bearish signal would be intact.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF underwent a measure of bullish activity last week. Bears made attempt to push down the market on Thursday and Friday, but bulls prevented that from happening as they halted further downside movement, thus saving the current bullish bias. Unless price goes below the support level at 0.9650, the bullish bias would be intact.

GBP/USD: The Cable went sideways from Monday to Wednesday and started going upwards on Thursday and Friday. This was an upwards movement of 280 pips, and price has already tested the distribution territory at 1.3350. The bias on the market is bullish in the near-term and bearish in the long term. Other GBP pairs are also bullish (while EUR/GBP is bearish), and therefore, high volatility is expected this week.

USD/JPY: The USD/JPY cross has continued the bullish journey it started on August 26, 2016. Since then, price has gone upwards 400 pips, now around the supply level at 104.00, which was tested last week and could be retested this week. This bias on this pair, as well as other JPY pairs, is bullish. Until there is a noteworthy change in the market, long trades would be logical.

EUR/JPY: The protracted equilibrium phase that occurred on this cross ended on August 26, 2016. Since then, price has gone upwards by 300 pips, now testing the supply zone at 116.00. Once price goes above that supply zone, the next target for bulls are at the supply zones at 116.50 and 117.00.

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Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August September 5 - 9, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

                                          

EURUSD

Dominant bias: Bearish

EURUSD went bearish last week, closing at 1.1152 on Friday. Bulls made serious effort to push price upwards on Thursday and Friday, but bears came with stronger hands to effect a movement to the downside. There are support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050, which may be tested this week. On the other hand, the resistance lines at 1.1300 and 1.1350 would oppose any meaningful rallies in the market. This bearish bias cannot be overridden until price goes above the resistance line at 1.1350.  

USDCHF

Dominant bias: Bullish  

USDCHF went bullish last week, closing slightly above the support level at 0.9800 (on September 2). Bears made serious effort to push price downwards on Thursday and Friday, but bulls came in to put a check on this, thereby preventing a serious decline. There are resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900, which may be tested this week. Additionally, support levels at 0.9750 and 0.9700 would check any pullbacks that may occur in the week. This bullish outlook would remain valid as long as price does not go below the support level at 0.9700.

GBPUSD

Dominant bias: Bullish

Cable consolidated in the first few days of the week, and then began moving upwards on September 1. The upwards movement was significant enough to result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Further upwards movement is possible, which might enable price to reach the distribution territories at 1.3400 and 1.3450 this week. We would continue to witness high volatility on Cable and other GBP pairs this week and this month.

 

USDJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

USDJPY has been able to sustain the bullish movement it started on August 26, 2016. Since then, price has gone up 400 pips, assayed to stay above the supply level at 104.00, but closing below it on Friday. The outlook on the market, as well as other JPY pairs, has become strongly bullish, and that is the reality right now. This means that USDJPY is expected to continue going north until there is a significant change in the market situation.     

                                                                                                                               

EURJPY

Dominant bias: Bullish

As it was expected, the protracted equilibrium phase that occurred on this cross from August 8 to 26, 2016 has ended. Price has rallied by approximately 290 pips since then, currently making effort to settle above the supply zone at 116.00, which is trying to aid bears in their current losing battle. Bulls have to overcome that supply zone in order to effect further rally, which is anticipated for this week. Since JPY is now weak, any currencies (like GBP) which become strong would enjoy massive gains versus the Yen.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The world's most successful traders believe in themselves and their ability to win. In fact, many of them feel that they “own” the market. They are not necessarily being arrogant, but they are sure of themselves and that they are able to take profits out of the market.” – Andy Jordan

Source: www.tallinex.com

 Super Trading Strategies: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertradingstrategies/index.html     

  

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

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Noam Gottesman: Founder of a Successful Trading Business

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MASTER TRADERS – PART 16

“Traditional risk management simply fails to account for the fact that the most dangerous risks are those which occur infrequently and don’t show up in track-records.” - Jack Schwager

Name: Noam Gottesman

Year of birth: May 1961

Nationality: American, British

Occupation: hedge fund manager, businessman

HE APPROACHES TRADING AS A BUSINESS

Noam is of Jewish ethnicity. He also has dual citizenship (the US and UK); and based in New York.  He got his B.A. from Columbia University.

He first worked at Goldman Sachs, in a London branch, and rose up the executive ladder, becoming a manager of one of their private client funds. After leaving Goldman Sachs in 1995, he co-founded GLG Partners.

As of year 2014, Noam was worth $2 billion, which made Forbes list him among 400 richest people in that year. This means that his trading activities were hugely profitable.

In 2007, GLG Partners grew up to the point of managing $24.6 billion; and becoming a publicly traded company on New York Stock Exchange.

Noam has other business and activities of interest like, TOMS Capital (investment Company), Eleven Madison Park (restaurants), the Tate Gallery Foundation (trusteeship), etc. He was blessed with 4 children.

What You Need to Know:

1. Contrary to what certain people believe, trading is no gambling. Well, it’s gambling for those who see it as such. For those who see it as a serious business, like Noam, it’s just what it is: a business. Treat your trading career as a business and you’d have higher chances of being successful.

2. You track record is important. It shows how you controlled risk in the past and profited from uncertainties. Noam has his track records, making him an undisputed super trader.

3. Your trading system(s) must be able to survive all market conditions, and you must be able to follow your rules flawlessly. By this, I mean winning rules. Adhering to losing rules would only make you lose your money.

4. Yes, when you become successful in trading, you can also try other businesses, just like Noam. Breakthrough in a very tough but highly rewarding business like trading might encourage you to venture into other fields. Peter Thiel is another good example.

5. As you become richer, then enjoy your money. Forbes revealed that Noam got married in May 2015 (second marriage) to the sales director of fashion label Reed Krakoff in Italy, an elaborate event attended by such celebrities as Beyonce and Jay Z.

This article is ended by the quote below:

“A mistake occurs when you don’t follow your written trading rules, and if you don’t have written rules then everything you do is a mistake. An efficiency level of 80% (two mistakes in ten trades) can ruin your trading system and your profits.” – Dr. Van Tharp

Source: www.tallinex.com

Super Trading Strategies: Super Strategies   

  

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

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Monthly Technical Reviews on Gold, Silver and Bitcoin (September 2016)

GOLD (XAUUSD)

Dominant Bias: Bearish

Gold generally consolidated from August 1 to 19, 2016; and then began moving south perpetually. The southwards movement was significant enough to have brought about a bearish bias on the market.  Price has gone down 3500 pips since August 22, making it illogical to seek short trades right now. Further bearish movement is anticipated for September 2016, which may enable price to reach the demand levels at 1290.00, 1280.00 and 1270.00. 

SILVER (XAGUSD)

Dominant Bearish    

Silver decline from August 1 to 26, and then moved sideways till the end of the month. This has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, as price reached a high of 20.7500 and a low of 18.3550 in August. Further southward movement is possible this month, and price could test the support levels at 18.5000, 17.5000 and 16.5000 before the end of the month. Nonetheless, there would be a bullish reversal sometime in future, which may also affect Gold

BITCOIN (BTCUSD)

Dominant Bias: Neutral

Bitcoin remained a flat market throughout August 2016, save the bearish movement it underwent on the last day of July and the first few days of August. Price has been volatile on smaller timeframes and it is directionless. This sideways movement may continue in September, but a serious directional movement would soon happen, which would most probably favor bears. The short term outlook is neutral and the long term outlook is bearish. 

Source: www.tallinex.com   

Super Trading Strategies: Super Strategies    

  

Source: http://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/authors/azeez-mustapha

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