Friday, May 13, 2011

Weekly Trading Update (May 13, 2011)

“Nothing worth having is captured and mastered overnight. It takes time and energy. You need to develop the dogged determination and the endurance to go the distance and become a winner. The drive to persist and persevere is fueled by the initial vision…” – Dr. Woody Johnson


You need to know when the trend is your friend and when it’s not; when you’ll do what others are doing and when you’ll not do what they’re doing. According to Joe Ross, the key is to know when to follow the crowd and when to go against it. The crowd is usually right, until a turning point occurs. When virtually everyone has taken the position that the market is headed in a particular direction, there are few traders left to push the trend further. At that point, a countertrend initiates and moves the market in the opposite direction. The challenge is predicting when that turning point will occur, anticipating it, and developing a trading plan to capitalize on it. Now, this all sounds easy in theory, but in practice, it is difficult to implement a trading strategy to capitalize on this cycle. How can you predict the turning point? Some say it is almost impossible. All you can do is develop a sound method that works most of the time, but also admit that it may [sometimes, but not always] fail.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.


Primary Trend: Bullish

The bearish correction that happened from May 2 – 5, 2011, was followed by a bullish continuation from May 6 – 10; and yet another bearish correction has been in place since May 11. This condition made me got stopped out with some profit.

Order: Sell

Entry date: May 3, 2011

Entry price: 1.0913

Stop loss: 1.1113

Trailing stop: 1.0705

Take profit: 1.0317

Exit date: May 6, 2011

Exit price: 1.0705

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 208 pips


Primary trend: Bullish

Instead of bearish corrections followed by bullish continuations, this pair has been in a clear equilibrium zone since May 5, 2011. But there’s a greater probability that the uptrend would soon continue, and when it does, it’ll be nice to find a good way of going long.

Order: Sell

Entry date: April 27, 2011

Entry price: 0.8063

Stop loss: 0.8263

Trailing stop: 0.7925

Take profit: 0.7466

Exit date: May 6, 2011

Exit price: 0.7925

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 138 pips


Primary trend: Bullish

The strong bearish reversal that started on May 5, 2011, is still in place. If this situation continues for more days, perhaps several, it’ll make the longer-term bullish bias invalid. I still have an open position in this market.

Order: Sell

Entry date: May 5, 2011

Entry price: 1.4204

Stop loss: 1.4404

Trailing stop: 1.3908

Take profit: 1.3617

Exit date: N/A

Exit price: N/A

Status: Open

Profit/loss: 488 pips


Primary trend: Bearish

The Euro is getting weaker – having lost some of its recent gains against other currencies. While this is something that seems to have come just recently, the Euro has been getting weaker and weaker against the AUD since March 17, 2011. When the Euro was strong, it was hopeless against the Aussie, then how much more when it’s now weak? I expect this bearish trend to continue, and therefore my position is still open – until my target is probably hit.

Order: Sell

Entry date: May 5, 2011

Entry price: 1.3795

Stop loss: 1.3995

Trailing stop: 1.3511

Take profit: 1.3202

Exit date: N/A

Exit price: N/A

Status: Open

Profit/loss: 430 pips


Primary trend: Bullish

This cross is one of the fastest moving instruments in the currency markets. The correction that took place last week hit my target, plus the correction is still valid. The price is now quoted below the SMA 20. The ADX 20 level is, however, below 30 (showing a decrease in the market volatility). The -DI has crossed the +DI to the upside. If the present domination by the bears hold out long enough, the primary trend may eventually turn bearish.

Order: Sell

Entry date: May 5, 2011

Entry price: 1.8687

Stop loss: 1.8887

Trailing stop: 1.8687

Take profit: 1.8109

Exit date: May 6, 2011

Exit price: 1.8109

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 578 pips


Primary trend: Bullish

Interestingly, the price movement on this market is quite similar to that of the AUDUSD, especially on the daily charts. I was stopped out by a bullish continuation (while holding a short position). I’m now trying to look for another entry level, preferably in the direction of the trend.

Order: Sell

Entry date: April 21, 2011

Entry price: 88.47

Stop loss: 90.47

Trailing stop: 86.12

Take profit: 82.49

Exit date: May 6, 2011

Exit price: 86.12

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 235 pips

Conclusion:: The markets are currently in a critical phase: it’s becoming difficult to see clear directions. Only time would tell whether the ongoing corrections would lead to resumption of the trend or sustained reversals on the market.

I end this article with another quote from Dr. Johnson:

“Greatness lies in the understanding that it is not focusing on the win, but mastering the fundamentals and consistent implementation that leads to the win. Greatness is in your grasp — you can program yourself for success with the right combination that unlocks the power of intention. Success is where opportunity meets preparation.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Senior Analyst

FX Instructor, LLC


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NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

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