Thursday, July 28, 2011

Weekly Trading Update (July 29, 2011)

“Yes I do (I believe that successful trading can be learned). But it’s obviously not easy. Once you’ve worked your way to a professional level, it’s also important not to want to optimize everything excessively. The KISS rule (Keep it Simple, Stupid) has proven to be a reliable guideline for professionals… It’s important that things don’t get too complicated here. So keep your strategy as simple as possible and avoid overly complex interpretations since this can exert unnecessary pressure on you while trading in real time.” - Thomas Kahdemann


I used to believe that institutional traders were more skillful than private traders. Then, I wondered how long it’d take me to be like them, but later it dawned on me that they also can’t predict the future with absolute certainty. The fact that a trader has access to huge funds to manage doesn’t automatically make her/him a better trader than a trader who has less money. Furthermore, some people believe that trading in summer months are difficult because some traders tend to take vacation, yet I know those who currently make profits regardless of this belief; for there are always trending pairs/crosses somewhere. The fact that most top traders find the market difficult right now doesn’t mean that some private traders aren’t making money. I’ll continue saying that traders need to keep their strategies simple, because I’ve seen how a single indicator which is combined with price actions makes more pips than a complicated strategy using expensive charting software. There is no trading guru somewhere: the only way to become a guru is mentioned at the conclusion of this weekly update. And you’d do well to see the quote that follows at the end of the article.

Below is the summary of some of my trading activities this week.


Primary Trend: Bullish

Last week, I said it was good to go long on this pair. I had a long trade here. Why? It was because the price action confirmed it: there was no other reason. However, it may be too late to go long right now.

Order: Buy

Entry date: July 22, 2011

Entry price: 1.0830

Stop loss: 1.0730

Trailing stop: 1.0959

Take profit: 1.1124

Exit date: July 29, 2011

Exit price: 1.0986

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 156 pips


Primary trend: Bullish

This pair has continued its journey northwards since last week. The kiwi remains a strong currency, but its days of strength are numbered. It’s possible for the price to retrace at this point. It’s always good to look left to make the right decisions.


Primary trend: Bearish

The pair is trying to edge its way upwards now, though the overall trend remains bearish. The price would need to break the price level at 1.3700 for this assumption to be true. I’m still anticipating more weakness in the Loonie.


Primary trend: Bearish

The strength in the AUD has been asserted again this week. There has been a sharp sell-off on this instrument. It’s better for speculators to find price levels by which this bearish move could be taken advantage of, rather than asking about the whys and wherefores of the market move.


Primary trend: Bearish

Slowly but steadily, and contrary to what I expected, the bearish move has continued. The price is still quoted below the SMA50 and SMA 200. The ADX 20 level is pointing towards the level 30, indicating a possible renewal of strong bearish pressures. The -DI has just crossed the +DI to the upside. I’ve no new position here.

Order: Sell

Entry date: July 15, 2011

Entry price: 1.6789

Stop loss: 1.6889

Trailing stop: 1.6639

Take profit: 1.6521

Exit date: July 19, 2011

Exit price: 1.6949

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 268 pips


Primary trend: Bearish

This market looks difficult: the long-term trend is still bearish, but the bearish outlook has been seriously violated. My last order was exited at breakeven. It’s better to stay away from this market now, as the AUDJPY is currently misbehaving.

Order: Sell

Entry date: July 12, 2011

Entry price: 85.42

Stop loss: 85.42

Trailing stop: N/A

Take profit: 82.46

Exit date: July 26, 2011

Exit price: 85.42

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 0 pips (breakeven)

Conclusion: I’ve always revealed the folly of trying to predict the markets or using complicated strategies. We should focus on trading with very, very small position sizes; cutting losses as many as they are and running profit as many as they are. There’s no other way to be victorious.

The article is ended with a quote - which is an eye-opener - from Thomas Kahdemann.:

“When I was at the beginning of my career, working in a bank’s branch office, I always thought that people at the Frankfurt headquarters were better than everybody else and knew ‘how the … market really works.’ When I later worked at the headquarters, I quickly realized that this was not the case. There was the same uncertainty there as in branch office. Then I thought that at least the traders in the trading departments, for example, in Zurich, should know. When I worked there in proprietary trading, there was no trace of omniscience either. ‘But the top traders in the US are bound to know how it works,’ I thought. Yet again, I was disappointed when I worked in Chicago and was looking for the Holy Grail. No-one knows with absolute certainty how to achieve continuous gains. As a trader, you’ve to accept that and learn to cope with the inevitable uncertainty.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Senior Analyst

FX Instructor, LLC


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NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

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