“If there is one vital
lesson I’ve learned in my own trading career that has served me better than any
others, it is to keep things as simple as possible in trading as this is really
nothing more than a game of probabilities and mental fortitude… Now, while we
are happy to look for those rewards in the market, we often let the excitement
of making money overpower the reality of losing money… Just because you are a
trader, it does not mean that you have to trade all the time.” – Sam Evans
Last month, the currency
markets experienced great volatility and trend-based pressures. The instruments
that went up did so without moderation, and so also were the instruments that
went down. Speculating on seriously falling markets remains one of the most
agreeable trading methods. Extremely falling markets would soon offer traders
excellent opportunities to enter the markets long at very cheap prices. Even
position traders would like to speculate on low prices and anticipate them to
rise in value. When a trend goes down for a long-period of time, timing the
accurate turning point for a bullish market is the knowledge that victorious
traders ought to have. There are many ways to speculate on the markets that
seem to have gone too far.
In July, 2012, there were
gaps that occurred at the beginning of the markets. A gap that opened lower in
a downtrend showed that the bears were dying to get their hands filled. This
could not have been interpreted in other way, except to mean mere southward
pushes. The bulls’ aspiration was overwhelmed with bearish pressure, till the
bears were satisfied. The markets were then forced to drop further. What was
the outcome of this? The bears have subjugated the bulls. The bulls were really
in a pitiful condition as the markets tended to go against them.
Below is the summary of some of my trading forecasts this month:
AUDUSD
Primary
trend: Bullish
The
AUDUSD rose by over 280 pips last month - something that could have been gained
as returns provided profits were allowed to run. On the chart, we see a bullish
Confirmation Pattern that is still early enough. The ADX line is trudging
upwards (now at the level 27), while +DI is above -DI. The MACD signal line and histogram are now
above the zero line. The bullish trend is still valid.
AUDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
This cross did not trend that much in the
month of July 2012, but the bias is still to the upside. The perpetual strength
in the JPY could end anytime soon and the cross might garner enough stamina to
assume a significant bullish stance. On the chart, we have a Convergence
Pattern; which mean that the bears are getting tired in their desperate battle
against the bulls. If their strength is exhausted, the cross might rise.
EURNZD
Primary
trend: Bearish
Early
last month, I said this cross was in a bearish mode. The cross fell by well
over 500 pips in the month of July. The bias is still down. On the chart, we
have a conspicuous Divergence Pattern, showing sellers’ supremacy. The fact
remains that the EUR is weaker than the NZD. The next support level is 1.5100,
and if it is successfully broken, the price might trend lower to 1.5000.
EURCAD
Primary trend: Bearish
This cross
also nosedived by far more than 500 pips in the month of July 2012. The present
Divergence Pattern on the chart stands for a confirmation of the present
southbound bias. Both the signal line and the histogram of the MACD are clearly
below the zero line, while the ADX line is far above the level 40. This shows
potent bearish pressure. The price may be corrected up a little before it moves
down further.
AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bullish
This exotic instrument had a significant rally last month,
but it is currently having a serious correction. It was corrected lower by more
than 100 pips as the price in the month of July 2012 ended at a low of 1.2928. This
potentially gives us a great opportunity to buy cheaper in the context of an
uptrend. However, there are obstacles to overcome in the distribution zones at
1.3000 and 1.3050.
GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bullish
This market is currently around 200-pip bearish correction
after it moved up by 500 pips last month. The ADX line went up above the level
at 40 - hence the present bearish correction. I still maintain a bullish
scenario on this market, assuming that the current price action would afford me
the opportunity to buy cheaper. There are demand zones at the levels 1.52000
and 1.5015.
Conclusion: Next week,
you would have the privilege to see some trading signals that were taken with
the kind of analyses used here. Being a market speculator, you show know your
level, be faithful to your trading rules, and be brave about the trading
convictions you have. If you do what you need to do to be a permanently
triumphant trader - some may not like you, but your success in trading might
endear you to many who crave trading success. Sure,
you can try to be just like every other trader moving downwards rather than
upwards. But that’s so boring! Being a permanently successful trader makes you
stand out in a good way. It doesn’t make you weird. It makes you likable.
It’s part of the FXEmpire.com’s
mission to make you thrive as a trader - to metamorphous into a market wizard,
and flourish as a market speculator.
The article is concluded with the quotes below:
“However, it is true that trading is difficult. Of the many
who try, few realize lasting success…. While the risks and sacrifices can be
many, you don't have to give up your whole life to become a trader. Initially
you might not be able to spend as much time with your family as you would like,
but that is a choice you make, not one that is put upon you. You might have to
work extra jobs to build up capital needed for trading or to pay for trading
expenses… I don't believe it's necessary to focus exclusively on trading. You
want and need to have a life.” – Joe Ross
“The KISS approach’ –
‘keep it simple & stupid’ and is more important then ever for today’s
trading world. With thousands of systems, indicators, markets and brokers, it
is easy to fall into the trap of information overload. Media also brings most
moves into the limelight in which the contrarian should mostly tend to look the
other way. Any market can only move in the directions; up or down (and of
course sideways). With this in mind, primarily you can flick a coin and the
outcome of up or down will have a 50.50 chance. Why make the process more
difficult by suffocating these probabilities with a hundred indicators or a
thousand possible news outcomes? "Simplicity" is key” – James King
If you want to receive
permanently free winning Forex trading signals, please send me an email titled:
“A Request for Free Trading Signals.”
Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.
Thank you.
With best regards,
Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds
Manager &Coach
For more articles at FXempire.com, go to:http://www.fxempire.com/author/mustaphaazeez/
Open an account here: eng.fxclearing.ca/ib/915
Copyright (C): Fx Empire, LLC
If you want to receive permanently free winning Forex
trading signals, please send me an email titled: “A Request for Free Trading
Signals.”
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NB: There is risk of loss in
trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.
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