“Though the initial starts were
discouraging, I kept going on with the simple reason that if some traders are
making money, then there has to be a way.” - Sunil Mangwani
When the
markets are really choppy, there can’t be an extended upward or downward bias.
When a pair/cross makes an attempt to go down while in a choppy mode, it mayn’t
even go beyond the most recent low of the last candle before it flops. This
flop may be sudden or may be protracted.
Below is
the summary of some of my trading forecasts this month:
AUDUSD
Primary
trend: Bullish
This pair was essentially bullish for the
most part of last month – though not significantly. Another bullish run is
expected for this month, especially so as the USD itself has consistently
failed to show protracted strength. The ADX +DI is above its –DI counterpart
(whereas the ADX itself is far below the level 30, showing that the market
pressure is weak). The MACD signal line is moving towards the zero line.
AUDJPY
Primary trend: Bullish
There is a ‘Buy’ signal on the AUDJPY –
since the cross has turned bullish. The ADX 14 period has gone far above the
level 30 (showing a strong trend), while the +DI has crossed the –DI to the
upside: significantly. The MACD histogram and signal line are both above the
zero line. What we have on the chart is therefore a Bullish Confirmation
Pattern.
EURNZD
Primary
trend: Bullish
Here,
the MACD histogram and signal line are above the zero line, but the ADX 14 is
not giving a clear direction. There is a distribution zone around 1.5800, and
an accumulation zone at 1.5700. Yes, the long-term outlook on the EURNZD
remains bullish, but the market itself is not attractive at the present. One
would need to wait for a clearer signal before taking any position.
EURCAD
Primary trend: Bullish
The bullish
bias on the EURCAD cross has been very significant. The month of October 2012
saw what could be called a continuation of the northward journey in this market
(which moved up by over 350 pips in that month). The ADX line is at the level
30, while the +DI remains above the –DI. The MACD histogram and signal line are
conspicuously above the zero line.
AUDNZD
Primary trend: Bullish
The trend on this instrument is now bullish as the
Aussie proves to be a kind of stronger than the Kiwi. Lately, the price has
been caught in an equilibrium zone; but it will soon go out of this zone. When
this happens, it would be more probable for the price to break upwards.
There is a Convergence Pattern on the chart – something that shows a potential
bullish reversal.
GBPCHF
Primary trend: Bearish
This cross went bearish last month, before giving up a
large chunk of the bearish trail. The bias still remains bearish, because the
Bearish Confirmation Pattern (Divergence) is still available on the chart,
although the ADX which is below the level 30 shows that the market pressure is
currently weak. Should this bearish determination continue to hold on, the
price could reach the support level at 1.4950.
Conclusion: One trader admits: “I’ve
stopped losing too much, and I’ve more patience. I feel better in the markets.
Best of all, I’m happy to know that by caring about the safety of my accounts,
I’m working for their lasting existence. I used to think that making hundreds
of percentage per month is the ultimate goal. But now that I’ve starting
risking small to lose small, I wouldn’t trade it for anything!” Loses are
common in trading, but they won’t ruin your career unless you let them! In the
end, it’s not the losses you encounter in the markets but how you deal with
them that’ll make or break your trading career.
The article
is ended by more quotes from Sunil Mangwani:
- “Trading without stops is like walking
the tight rope without a safety net. And if my trade is stopped out by
unforeseen circumstances, I just accept the loss as a part of trading and
move on to the next trade.”
- “Focus on your trading process and not
on the outcome. Losing trades are a ‘part and parcel’ of trading and do
not expect to get all your trades correct. Accept the losses and learn to
see failures and setbacks as opportunities for learning.”
Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.
Thank you.
With best regards,
Azeez Mustapha
Forex Signals Strategist, Funds
Manager &Coach
For more articles at FXempire.com, go to:http://www.fxempire.com/author/mustaphaazeez/
Open an account here: eng.fxclearing.ca/ib/915
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