Thursday, April 11, 2013

Monthly Outlook on Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium (April, 2013)

Dominant bias: Bearish
Since the year 2012, the outlook on the world-famous gold has been bearish. This highly-sought precious metal has plummeted by more than 13500 points since December 2012, when the model used for this analysis gave a long term short signal. The outlook is bearish and the price would continue to respect that, for the Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart remains extant. The recent bullish correction would not take the price upwards beyond the resistance level at 1580.00 while the price may ultimately reach the support level at 1530.00.

Dominant bias: Bearish
Since February 2013, this market has fallen by over 400 points, following some futile but noteworthy bullish effort that was seen in January 2013. The dominant trend is bearish (there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart), for the indicators in our model support this. In the short term, some bullish attempts may take the price towards the distribution territories of 28.00 and 28.50; yet the bears are expected to prevail, for the price could be pushed downwards towards the accumulation territory of 26.00.     

Dominant bias: Bearish
Irrespective of what happens in this market, the major outlook remains bearish. For example, the market traded in some defined equilibrium zones in most part of March 2013, yet the bias is to the downside. Recently, there is a bullish attempt in the market, but this only proffers a good opportunity to sell short at dearer prices, while the market is still in the context of a downtrend. There are supply levels at 1560.0 and 1565.0, which should contain any bullish threats: meanwhile the price could reach the demand level at 1500.0.

Dominant bias: Bullish
On Palladium, our model gave a ‘buy’ signal in November 2012. Since then, the precious metal has moved upwards by more than 15600 points – topping at the supply zone of 787.50 on March 8, 2013. Since then, the price has a kind of moved sideways, and right now, there is a serious threat to the long-term bullish bias on the chart. Despite this, the outlook is bullish, and short orders are not yet recommended (unless they are done on a short-term basis). Whether the event in the market would lead to a ‘sell’ signal or the bulls would push the price upwards remain to be seen - so one would do well to wait for further confirmation before taking a decision.     

Conclusion: However, some financial instruments which were reaching for the skies now seem unable to regain their recent losses. Why? Researches have revealed that financial instruments there were formerly going northward perpetually, spurred on by incessant bullish pressures, are now unable to sustain their former biases, whereas instruments that once seemed hopeless now showcase the tendency to maintain constant stamina. These are the instruments that make headlines when they hold out longer than expected in their northward determination.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Trade to make money, not to fill some other unfilled emotional hole.” - Mike Dever

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