Friday, March 7, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 10 - 14, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for this week:

Dominant bias: Bullish
The weakness in the USD and the stamina in the EUR have caused the price of the EURUSD to result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price would continue going further upwards - though not without the possibilities of occasional pullbacks. The strong psychological resistance line at 1.4000 is now the medium-term target for the bulls.

Dominant bias: Bearish
From the previous support level at 0.8800, this currency trading instrument rallied and topped at 0.8894. At that time, the price action nearly resulted in a ‘buy’ signal (which proved to be bogus). Cautious traders would normally wait for an establishment of the bullish outlook before seeking long orders. The ‘waiting’ would have spared them a real surprise because a sudden weakness in the USD caused the price to drop like a stone, slashing though the previous support level at 0.8800, and closing below it. The support level at 0.8700 has thus become an easy target for the bears.  

Dominant bias: Bullish
In the last forecast, it was said that the bullish signal on the Cable was still valid in spite of the then consolidation and occasional southward pulls on the price. Well, the price has been able to reject further southward pull and has started rising gradually. The bulls’ strength is not very significant but their domination is clear. It is possible for the price to continue going further upwards.

Dominant bias: Bullish
On smaller timeframes, one would see that most JPY opened on March 2, 2014 with minor gaps. When those gaps were seen, it was immediately perceived that there would be significant movements on the JPY pairs during the week. That is exactly what has happened. Starting from March 4, 2014, the exponential weakness in the Yen caused all the JPY pairs to skyrocket by an average of 300 pips within 3 days! The USD/JPY is part of this drama and it is now around the market level at 103.00. There may be pullbacks along the way, but the pair would continue going further upwards, possibly reaching the supply level at 104.00.

Dominant bias: Bullish  
From a weekly low of 139.14, this cross was able to shoot skyward, reaching the supply zone at 143.00. This movement is noteworthy indeed and the price is expected to continue going upwards, punctuated by some transient periods when the price would be on sale.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“The markets are going to reflect the conditions and circumstances that are present in the order flow; and, you’ll want to accept the reality of the charts rather than assume that the reality will change merely because you want it to.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

Eye-opening trading lessons:

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