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Thursday, May 29, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 2 - 6, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
This market has been moving downwards in a slow and tardy manner. Since early May 2014, the downward move that begun has taken the market down by over 380 pips. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, it is rational to expect that the downward move could continue, although the possibility of a transitory rally cannot be ruled out on the way. The support line at 1.3500 is our target for the next week.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish  
This currency trading instrument has been caught in a slow and tardy mode also. After the ‘buy’ signal was generated earlier in the month of May 2014, the price has moved upwards by over 270 pips. Now, the possibility of the price moving higher cannot be ruled out, for the northward bias has been established. There could, nevertheless, be some pullbacks in the market along the way, but they ought not to take the price below the support levels at 0.8950 and 0.8900. Any movement below the support levels (especially the latter one) would mean the end of the northward bias. In the meantime, the price may trudge towards our target at the resistance level of 0.9000. It may even break it to the upside and move towards another resistance level at 0.9050.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
The Cable gave a spurious ‘buy’ signal last week. Because the price was unable to move higher and break the accumulation territory at 1.6900 to the upside, the Cable skydived and tested the accumulation territory at 1.6700. The ‘sell’ signal in the market has been confirmed: the price could continue trading lower, with the probability of reaching another accumulation territory at 1.6650.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a difficult market – a market in which false breakouts are no longer a curiosity. In addition, sustained trending moves are rather rare. Unless one is scalping or speculating on intraday basis, one may think of getting out of the market until a determined movement occurs. When it does occur, it is more probable that the price would go lower.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Since early May 2014, the cross has gone down by close to 400 pips. The bearish outlook is still valid and may continue till next week, reaching a target at 137.00. It is rational to sell the cross on rallies.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:


“The key word here is patience. If you're using the correct strategies, you can be sure that [a] bad run will end, it’s only a matter of time.” - Marcus de Maria



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