Saturday, October 18, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (October 20 - 24, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bullish
The major determinant of the direction of the EUR/USD (including most other USD pairs) is the USD itself. As a result of the weakness in the USD, the EUR/USD pair has been able to sustain its bullish attempts, which have been going on for about two weeks. There is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price may end up reaching the resistance line at 12900. There are support lines at 1.2700 and 1.2650. The current pullback in the market may proffer opportunities for long trades.

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair has inevitably been moving in the opposite direction to the EUR/USD – hence the bearish outlook on it. Since October 6, 2014, the price has dropped by almost 300 pips. There is a high probability that the weakness in the market may continue, enabling the price to test the support lines at 0.9400 and 0.9350 respectively. Meanwhile, any bullish attempts may be frustrated at the resistance levels of 0.9550 and 0.9600.

Dominant bias: Bullish    
This market is bullish because of the bullish effort on it, and the bullish effort has become strong enough to drive the price above the accumulation territory at 1.6050. Long trades are no longer advisable here, unless the price drops below the accumulation territory at 1.6000. Really, the price is expected to continue going upwards within the next several trading days, reaching the distribution territory at 1.6200.  

Dominant bias: Bearish
This has remained a bear market, unless the current rally in the context of the downtrend continues until the price is able to reach the supply level at 108.00. By all indication, it seems the market is bent on moving upwards, but one should stay aside until the supply level is breache to the upside. Otherwise, this may turn out to be another short-selling opportunity.   

Dominant bias: Bearish
The scenario on this currency trading instrument is nearly similar to that of the USD/JPY. The market is making some commendable effort to go north, but the overall bias remains bearish. This is a highly volatile market, with upswings alternated by downswings. The high volatility should be put into consideration when trading. When the instrument moves above the demand zone at 137.00, it can be said the bearish bias is over; otherwise, buyers should be cautious.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

"At the heart of all trading is the simplest of all concepts—that the bottom-line results must show a positive mathematical expectation in order for the trading method to be profitable." - Chuck Branscomb

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