Saturday, December 6, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (December 8 - 12, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a weak market, and the broke below the line at 1.2400 (which is now a resistance line) led to the strengthening of the bearish bias as price went further downwards, closing below the resistance line at 1.2300. The target for next week is at the support line of 1.2200, which would be tested with the continuation of the weakness in this market. Any rallies, whether shallow or significant, should be seen as opportunities to sell short. As long as the rally does not take price above the resistance line at 1.2500, it cannot render the bearish bias invalid.

Dominant bias: Bullish   
USD/CHF was able to close above the target at 0.9750, which is now a support level. Price was able to close above that level as it moves very close to the resistance level at 0.9800. The resistance level could be breached to the upside as price goes for another target at the resistance level of 0.9850. Could USD reach parity again with CHF? Only time will tell. However, if that would happen, it could be in this month.

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This currency trading instrument is also weak. It was able to break below the price territory at 1.5600, which had been a great hurdle for the bears for a few weeks. The great barrier has been overcome and the instrument has closed below that territory. Should price go further downwards, it would reach the accumulation territory at 1.5500. The distribution territory at 1.5600, which is now a great barrier, should do a good job in resisting possible rallies along the way. Any rally that is strong enough to break that distribution territory to the upside could be strong enough to threaten the existence of the extant bearish outlook.

Dominant bias: Bullish  
The Bullish Confirmation Pattern on this pair is stronger than ever – because of a great strength in USD and a great weakness in JPY.  The supply level at 121.50 is under siege and it would be broken to the upside. On the other hand, there could be a large pullback while the bulls are making effort to push price further north, as it is may be true of other JPY pairs. The possible pullback would be contained at the demand levels of 120.50 and 119.50.    

Dominant bias: Bullish
This cross moved upwards by roughly 200 pips this week (USDJPY moved by 300 pips). Price ought to target the supply zone at 150.00, but the possibilities of bearish retracements cannot also be ruled out; though the retracements should be halted at the demand zones at 148.50 and 147.50. The bias remains bullish.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Trading is a matter of probabilities. We find a method that has a statistical edge and use that method over and over so that the law of averages will work in our favor.” – Joe Ross


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