Saturday, March 21, 2015

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 23 - 27, 2015)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bullish
Without events, there cannot be history. The even that happened last week shows that EUR may not reach parity with USD soon. In fact, it is no longer rational to seek short trades on this pair, for the outlook on it has already turned bullish. As it was mentioned in the past analyses, the great support line at 1.0500 did a good job in preventing further southward plunge in the market, and since then price has skyrocketed by more than 300 pips. The bullish spike on Wednesday, March 18, 2015, was the strongest – in which price shot upward by over 450 pips in a single day, and later got corrected downwards. The support lines at 1.0700 and 1.0600 should do a good job in frustrating the efforts of the bears while price could go further upwards gradually this week.

Dominant bias: Bearish   
As it was expected, only a strong rally in EURUSD was able to bring about the reversal in USDCHF, and that is exactly what happened?   The former rallied, the latter dipped. The former got corrected lower, the latter bounced upward; and vice versa. There is now a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the USDCHF, and price may reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600 this week.

Dominant bias: Bearish
What happened here last week has posed a formidable challenge to the recent bearish bias. Cable was nearly replicating what EURUSD was doing; making price actions on the two markets look nearly similar. After all, both pairs are positively correlated. The expected movement on Cable this week should be favorable to the bulls, for the market would continue its upwards journey towards the distribution territories at 1.5050 and 1.5150. By then, the bias would have turned completely bullish.

Dominant bias: Bearish    
The incipient selling pressure on this currency trading instrument has made it become weak. Price can test the demand levels at 119.50 and 119.00, but it is unlikely that it would breach those demand levels to the downside because there is a high probability that this instrument may rally this week.

Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the bias on this cross is bearish, the bias has almost been rendered invalid. Last week, the general movement on this cross was bullish, enabling price to close above the demand zone at 129.50. The market can move upwards by more than 150 pips this week: an action that would be the final blow for the currently precarious bearish bias.    

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The search for low-risk trading ideas has always been the most important task for traders and investors. That hasn’t changed much. The main goal is to find situations where rewards exceed risks considerably.” – Gabriel Grammatidis

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