Saturday, February 20, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 22 - 26, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Bullish   
This pair went slightly downwards on Monday and moved sideways for the rest of the week. A closer look at the chart revealed a consolidation to the downside, which threatens the recent bullish bias.  For the bias not to turn bearish, bulls must prevent bears from pushing price below the support line at 1.1000. In case bulls succeed in doing this, we may see the price going upwards this week, thereby ending the threat to the recent bullish bias.    

Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF went up 170 pips last week, but it met a strong opposition at the resistance level of 0.9950. Price was unable to go above that resistance level in spite of several attempts to breach it. This week, the movement of USDCHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. USDCHF may experience great difficulty in breaking the resistance level at 1.0000 to the upside (an event that could end the current bearish bias in the market). Failure to do this could reinforce the bearish bias, which is currently under threat from bulls.  

Dominant bias: Neutral     
From the high of Monday, Cable dropped by 280 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4250 on Wednesday, February 17, 2016. The accumulation territory at 1.4250 has proven to be a recalcitrant barrier to bears, for the price could not go below it in spite of forays into it, and this has forced Cable into a neutral phase. The market ended on Friday with a strong upward bounce, which might be a short selling opportunity unless the distribution territories at 1.4550 and 1.4600 are overcome. 

Dominant bias: Bearish   
This market rallied 120 pips on Monday – resulting in a better entry price for sellers. From the high of Tuesday (114.87), price dropped by 240 pips, to close at 112.64 on Friday. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which indicates the possibility of price going further south, reaching the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00. The chances of JPY pairs rallying significantly this month are now slim.
Dominant bias: Bearish
In the context of a downtrend, EURJPY cross went upwards on Monday and started coming down from the high of Tuesday.  From Tuesday, price came down gradually by 300 pips, reaching the demand zone at 125.00 on Friday. There is an ongoing bearish signal on this cross, which may enable it to move further southward by at least, 200 pips this week, reaching the demand zones at 124.50 and 123.50. Only a sudden weakness in the Yen would cause this cross to skyrocket.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“As you fully understand “your trading game” and know how the markets are functioning, you greatly increase your probability of success. Most of all, you will have “fun” trading — independent of winning or losing. If you do not enjoy yourself trading, then you are probably not trading the right systems – ones that fit you.” - Gabriel Grammatidis

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