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Saturday, May 28, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (May 30 – June 3, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
                                          
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish
Last week, EURUSD went downwards 110 pips, just as it was projected. There is a bearish signal in the market, which would cause its weakness to hold out, as long as USD is stronger than EUR. The pair would continue trudging south this week, unless USD shows any signs of vulnerability. This means that EURUSD could rally in case USD shows any signs of weakness. EUR might also experience some gains against certain currencies.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish  
This pair trended sideways last week, and moved slightly higher on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, coupled with a possibility of testing the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000 (a level of parity of USD with CHF). However, it is unlikely that the price would ever go above the resistance level at 1.0000, because a probable threat from CHF remains. CHF might gain strength versus certain majors – which could also affect USDCHF.    

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish  
Cable moved upwards 200 pips, testing the distribution territory at 1.4700 on May 25. Price was unable to stay above that distribution territory, since bears fought successfully to halt further rally, effecting an 80-pip correction. This week, the probability of Cable rallying further is higher than the probability of it going south significantly. The outlook on the market is bullish, though constant presence of disgruntled bears is a threat.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral  
This market was caught in an equilibrium phase throughout last week, with no bullish or bearish victory. Nonetheless, a closer examination reveals that bulls are still willing to push price northward; and they would gladly do so when conditions become favorable to them. In case bulls win, a bullish breakout to the supply levels at 111.00 and 111.50 might be witnessed. The possibility of a northward breakout would be in place as long as price does not go below the demand levels at 108.50 and 108.00.         
                                                                                                                               
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
This currency trading instrument has been going sideways for 2 weeks. The sideways phase would be in force until price crosses below the demand zone at 121.50, or above the supply zone at 125.50. Those demand and supply zones are strong, and unless price overcomes one of them, this sideways movement would remain. The longer the sideways movement is in place, the more imminent a breakout is (and the more directional the breakout would be when it occurs).   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The big dogs are making an average profit over lots of occurrences utilizing modern technology and the plethora of ways that they can trade. Even so, the little guys with smaller sized accounts can complete with them and, in many cases, outperform them. That’s because they are small and don’t have liquidity issues or regulatory restraints.” – Phil Newton (Source: Trade2win)




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