Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Would Thanksgiving Rally Happen This Year?

Would Thanksgiving Rally Happen This Year?
GOLD (XAUUSD) is currently weak, owing to another phase of a southward movement, which started a few months ago. The downtrend has been particularly strong since October. This week would be interesting because of a possibility of a Thanksgiving rally. Would it ever happen this year?

Thanksgiving rally has not taken place since last few years, though it occurred every year before then, with stunning accuracy. In case it would happen, it should be during the week in which Thanksgiving is observed. If it would ever happen this year, then it should be this week.

Historical data shows that this kind of rally usually occurred in the years when the long-term trend was bullish. For example, Gold was predominantly bullish from 2002 to 2012 (save the conspicuous correction that took place in 2008, although Thanksgiving rally did take place in that year also). Since 2012, the market has been predominantly bearish, till now, and that explains one of the reasons this rally has not taken place in the last few years.

It should be borne in mind that a market can decline while trend is predominantly bullish. On the other hand, a rally can take place while trend is predominantly bearish; which means that a Thanksgiving rally could take place in spite of the current bearish outlook, and it may not take place at all.

This phenomenon may keep appearing occasionally in the years to come, or it may disappear altogether. Whatever the case may be, skilled speculators have always thrived by trading what they see.

Monthly Technical Reviews on Silver and Bitcoin
SILVER (XAGUSD) is also in a bearish trend. It plunged in the first few days of October, and moved sideways till the end of the month. Silver underwent another strong bearish run on November 11, forming a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This means price may continue journeying downwards, and probably reaching the support levels at 15.0000, 14.0000 and 13.0000 before the end of this year. On the other hand, a serious rally on Gold would trigger a rally on Silver.  

BITCOIN (BTCUSD) is in an uptrend and there is a bullish bias on it. The current bullish trend started in October, following the sideways movement that was experienced in September. The market is quite choppy, but the uptrend is expected to continue till the end of this year. Therefore, price could reach the distribution territories at 750.00, 760.00 and 770.00 within the next few months, since buying pressure is supposed to continue. As usual, occasional pauses and transitory corrections would be witnessed here, but the overall movement would be bullish. 


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