Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The pair went upwards last week, gaining about 200 pips. Price moved
briefly above the resistance line at 1.2050, and then closed below it on
Friday. There is a strong bullish outlook on EUR pairs this week, and
therefore, the pair is supposed to continue to go upwards, gaining at least,
another 200 pips. There would be pauses and occasional corrections along the
way, but the movement this week would generally be bullish.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish
USDCHF is bearish, both in the long-term and the short-term. Price went
downwards by 150 pips, tested and breached the resistance level at 0.9450. The
pair is now under the resistance level at 0.9450, targeting the support levels
at 0.9400, 0.9350 and 0.9300. USDCHF cannot be expected to rally meaningfully
as long as EURUSD is strong. Therefore, the bias is bearish for this week, and
long trades are not currently rational.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
GBPUSD has become bullish after rallying by more
than 280 pips last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.3200, and
closing slightly below it. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the
market and price is thus expected to continue going upwards this week, reaching
the distribution territories 1.3250, 1.3300 and 1.3350. These distribution
territories may even be exceeded as price moves further upwards.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This currency trading instrument dropped about 210 pips last week, testing
the demand level at 107.50 and closing above it. Since the high of July 11,
price has dropped 660 pips and there is much room to drop more. Nonetheless,
the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, and while the demand levels
at 107.00, 106.50 and 106.00 could be reached, there is also a high possibility
of a strong rally before the end of the week.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Neutral
Unlike USDJPY, this cross rather consolidated last week, refusing to
assume a bearish movement. One reason behind this is the fact that EUR is
strong in its own right and its strength versus strength of JPY are almost
equal (hence the short-term equilibrium phase in the market). Price is going to
move out of balance this week, as JPY becomes weaker eventually, allowing this
cross to rally massive before the end of the week.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
This trading instrument is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the
short-term. Price has done nothing except to zigzag upwards and downward. The
market environment is quite choppy and it would be better to wait until it either
goes above the supply zone at 142.60 (staying above it); or it goes the demand
zone at 141.10 (staying below it). Until one of these two conditions are met,
price would remain directionless in the short-term. The most probable direction
this week is towards the north.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“How often you win
isn’t important. How much you win is.” – Rayner Teo
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