Friday, March 11, 2011

Weekly Trading Update (March 7 – 11, 2011)

“I can tell you that my accountant was telling me last year that I have lots of losing trades, but that he is very happy that I keep those losses extremely small… The most important thing for success is learning to cut your losses quickly and to keep those losses very small.” – Dan Zanger


Mr. Dan, quoted above, is a highly celebrated market wizard. He’s one of the greatest traders of his generation. The trading methodology he’s been using has been working for him for many years; something that has changed very little over time. Although his positing sizing is conspicuously higher than I can recommend, I seriously respect his trading approach. As I said in my article 2 weeks ago, Mr. Dan turned about $11,000 to $42 million within 24 months (making roughly 29,000% during the period). He has resplendent houses and a luxurious yacht which he uses to cruise around. In a single day, he can easily earn what most PhDs can’t earn in 10 years.

Both professional and novice traders face losses. The only difference is that professionals know how to deal with the losses and eventually move ahead, whereas novices don’t know how to do that or they’re not willing to do that. I’ve mentioned constantly in my articles that top traders are not the best market predictors. They abort losers when they’re wrong and capitalize on winners – a Golden Rule of trading. Novice traders, on the other hand, cut their winners and run their losers – something that backfires in the long run. There are 2 lessons to learn from Mr. Dan at the end of this article: persistence and cutting of losses.

Now let me review my recent trading activities briefly.


Primary Trend: Bullish

The market is generally difficult at the present. The primary trend remains bullish, but the bulls are getting weaker and weaker. If the prices of gold and oil correct much lower, the USD would gain strength and the AUD would weaken. AUDUSD would eventually weaken. This is more than conjectural.

Order: Buy Limit

Entry date: February 17, 2011

Entry price: 1.0015.

Initial stop: 0.9915

Current stop: 1.0086

Exit date: March 2, 2011

Exit price: 1.0115

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 71 pips

Percentage growth: 0.7%


Primary trend: Bearish

There’s no way for the NZD to gain meaningful strength at the moment. It’s falling against many currencies and vice versa. Even the anticipated strength in the USD would simply make the bearish move stronger. In the light of this development, any upward rally would only be temporary.


Primary trend: Bullish

My last long trade on this cross broke even, emphasizing the fact that the bulls’ power on the market is still limited. The CAD isn’t a weak currency, and the EUR is not strong enough to withstand it. The much anticipated weakness in the EUR would cause strong downward journey and the primary trend could turn bearish.

Order: Buy

Entry date: March 3, 2011

Entry price: 1.3471

Initial stop: 1.3371

Current stop: 1.3471

Exit date: March 9, 2011

Exit price: 1.3471

Status: Closed

Profit/loss: 0 pips (breakeven)

Percentage growth: 0%


Primary trend: Bullish

Buyers are predominantly victorious here. If the level 1.3800 is broken, the level at 1.3850 would easily be penetrated; thus making the level at 1.3900 the next object of attack. If these levels can’t be violated, then a strong bearish trend would occur. You should know what to do if you’re wrong. Failure to abort your losses is like making a rod for your own back.


Primary trend: Bullish

There’s no question about why this exotic cross is riding in a predominantly bullish mode (remember the earthquake). Since the beginning of this month, the market has moved up by roughly 1300 pips. The price is trying to inch above the SMA 20. The ADX 20 level is still showing a very strong trend. +DI has gone much above its –DI. The present extreme bullish bias may cause a temporary pullback. Yes any pullback on this pair is expected to be temporary. Only something unusual can cause steep a fall on this market.


Primary trend: Bullish

I said earlier that the market conditions are generally difficult at the present. I have no open positions at all. The weakness of the JPY is obvious, yet any noteworthy bullish attempts are invariably rejected. The present consolidation phase is paving a way for a serious breakout. Economic data can affect Forex considerably – especially if the announcement was significantly different to what the public was expecting. I’m planning to smooth this position later today, and begin to look for an opportunity to go short.

Conclusion: To perform well in a field, a person must master the information and skills specific to that field. I’m a living witness of the results of persistence and perseverance on the markets. If I gave up when I was totally hopeless on the markets, I wouldn’t be what I’m today. I realized that no-one would be inspired if I surrendered. But I’m glad that I’m now of help to many traders out there. Those who became market wizards faced recalcitrant challenges but continued their journey to success. Novices who later became crashing failures faced similar challenge, gave up and began to broadcast myths about trading. It’s advisable for them to quickly find other things to do (as they think) and see how easy it’s to attain financial freedom or get to the top.

What do you think is the difference between successful traders and so many other traders who have been kicked out of the game? The accompanying quotes from Dan Zanger answer this question:

1. “For me, it is very easy to cut my losses short and I do it often, but I must say that in a choppy, unpredictable market, this will whittle down portfolio quickly, and it is just part of the game.”

2. “… I never give up. I never, ever give up. I realize that if I give up, I will never get any money back that I might lose. I always go back to the charts and stare at them for hours, trying to figure out where and how I went wrong, and where in that chart pattern or daily bars could have foretold that this… market was going to crack before it did.”

3. “Persistence, homework, more homework and more homework is the reason for success. I feel many traders don’t put the time in. They don’t have the desire to learn. They don’t have the laser beam focus to really zoom in with what is working, why it works, what does not work, why it did not work and to put the years in that it really takes to learn all the stuff. People think that trading is going to be easy. They come in and they get crushed after a little while. Then they say they’ll never do it again. Guess what, [they] will never do it again and [they] will never succeed.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Senior Analyst

FX Instructor, LLC


Are you facing any challenges in trading? You might want to explore the secrets of markets wizards and duplicate their success. Get the secrets from my past articles at:

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NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

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