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Friday, April 29, 2011

Weekly Trading Update (April 25 - 29, 2011)

“Stop focusing on whether a trade was a winner or a loser and focus on flawless execution instead… I don’t look at my profit and loss and decide from that whether or not I have had a good trading week. My sole focus is whether I flawlessly executed my trading plan for the week… Most traders use their profit and loss for the week to guide them on how well they traded that week, which in my opinion is a very bad guide. Focus purely on flawlessly executing your trading plan and most of your psychological issues with trading will disappear.” – Travis McKenzie

Hello:

Like Grace Cheng, who was mentioned in my last weekly trading update, Travis McKenzie has also found financial freedom in trading. Travis, whose quotes are above and below this article, (being featured in a recent TRADERS’ edition), combined trading with his career as a lawyer for many years until he finally tired of the corporate world in 2005. At this time Travis established his previously part-time pursuit of trading as full time endeavor. The difference being, Travis spent as little time trading as a full time trader as he did as a part-timer. He now had free time on his hands to pursue other ventures, namely lifestyle. This shows that you can attain financial freedom thru trading if you want it badly enough.

Below is the summary of some of my market viewpoint.

AUDUSD

Primary Trend: Bullish

Trend riders would’ve been enjoying easy profits on this pair for over a month now. The best decision right now is trend-following. This present scenario would hold as long as the fundamentals remain in support of the bulls.

NZDUSD

Primary trend: Bullish

My viewpoint on this pair is similar to that of the AUDUSD. The trend is expected to continue, though it won’t last forever. I’d just keep my eyes on the movement of the real price. The only valid prices always are the high and low prices, never opening or closing prices.

EURCAD

Primary trend: Bullish

There’s been a new bullish breakout on this cross since last week, and this may be fueled more by more weakness in the CAD. Only a seriously weak EUR would reverse the trend.

EURAUD

Primary trend: Bearish

This market has been moving sideways for several days. The reason is that both the Euro and the Aussie are strong. There must be a stronger base currency or counter currency before there can be any meaningful trend. Demand must be out of balance for the price to move nicely. I’ll just keep my fingers crossed in order to know when a new trend would resume. If you can’t see any trend, then the market is in a sideways situation.

EURNZD

Primary trend: Bullish

It looks like the recent bearish correction wouldn’t turn into a sustained bearish move: it looks like a bullish trend is resuming. The price is now crossing the SMA 20 upwards. The ADX 20 level is winding towards the level 30 (showing the possibility of a decrease in the market volatility). The +DI is trying to cross the –DI to the upside. Could this provide a nice buying opportunity?

AUDJPY

Primary trend: Bullish

Since March 17, 2011, this cross has moved up by over 1400 pips. It even recently provided some market speculators with an opportunity to buy when the price was on sale, and in the context of an uptrend. It’s possible that a bearish ride may resume, but it’s better to wait until all the factors are in one’s favor. By doing this, one’s probability cup would overflow.

Conclusion: In his 2 successful books ‘Fooled by Randomness’ and ‘The Black Swan,’ Nassim Nicolas Taleb explains how on the one hand, one’s own perception may distort happiness, and that, on the other hand, staunchly held convictions may be fallible. And, he argues, this is not just the case in trading but every sphere of life. One experienced trader declares that if you’ve been trading for any length of time you’ve probably come to realize that the Traders Grail does not exist! If you’re new to trading, let me break it to you more directly. Stop looking for something that doesn’t exist and lean to trade using decision support tools. Just as there’s no ‘one size fits all’ pair of shoes, trousers or shirt that’s comfortable and fits properly on everyone, there’s no single trading tool, technique that will always work. The best we can do is to become ‘competent’ and ‘confident’ in the way we trade and let the results speak for themselves.

I end this article with a quote from Travis McKenzie:

1. “I was about 18 years old and had just started my law degree at university. I was in the library one day and started reading a magazine which listed the richest 500 people in Australia. I was shocked that nearly all of them had attained their wealth through business, property or the stock market and there were no lawyers on the list who had made millions solely from practicing law. I was always told to study hard, get a good job and you’ll become wealthy but the evidence in front of me contradicted that. It was that magazine that started my passion for [trading]… Italics mine

2. “I can see myself being in my 80s and still trading the markets. It has been a lifelong passion for me and I love the challenge it provides me.”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Senior Analyst

FX Instructor, LLC

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

Are you facing any challenges in trading? You might want to explore the secrets of markets wizards and duplicate their success. Get the secrets from my past articles at:

www.fxinstructor.com/blog/author/amustapha

www.fxinstructor.com/blog

Get my Forex trading signals at: http://www.fxinstructor.com/en/analytics/ituglobal

And my past articles are also available at: www.ituglobalforex.blogspot.com

Yahoo! Messenger ID: saazalmu

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

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