Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Monthly Forecast on Gulf Keystone (October 2013)

It is now suicidal to buy long on Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP), for the price has been making lower lows and lower highs. It is thus better to trade with the flow of the market instead of trading contrarily to the trend. Speculators are aware of the dangers of mean reversion trading; yet they trade in mean reversion modes. Any bull who challenges the current outlook would be whacked: it is like the male rat that challenges the cat to a duel.

The bias on the stock is bearish and it would continue falling lower and lower, reaching the support levels of 160.00, and then 140.00. On the chart, the Williams’ % Range is in the oversold territory, meaning that the weakness in the market is noteworthy. The price closed below the EMA 21 in September 2013, and it has been trending further downwards. Victorious speculators are those who wait for confirmation before taking positions. The bearish confirmation has long been in place.

Even if a good risk controller is caught on the wrong side of this market, the negativity would be negligible. For astute risk controllers, a loss is usually insignificant, and it is not used to judge the validity of future trades.

This forecast is ended with the quote below:

“The main concept behind what I do is following the trend… If you follow the trend and high momentum there is a higher degree of probability and therefore success.” – Marcello Arrambide

Azeez Mustapha

Market Analyst, Trading Signals Provider and Coach

Eye-opening trading lessons: Lessons from Expert Traders

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