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Friday, July 25, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (July 28 – August 1, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair has dropped by over 140 pips since last week, testing the support line at 1.3450. The price has tried to bounce upwards from that support line, but the upward bounce is weak. It is still expected that the price would test the support line again, and possibly break it to the downside, going further downwards. The resistance lines at 1.3500 and 1.3550 could do a good job resisting any significant rallies that may jeopardize the existing bias. 

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish   
The USD/CHF recently achieved a feat – it broke the great support level at 0.9000 to the upside. Apart from that, it has been able to stay above that support level, making more attempts to go further northwards. The next target, which is an obstacle to be breached, is the resistance levels at 0.9050 and 0.9100. While it is possible that the market could challenge those levels, it may be very difficult for it to breach the level 0.9100 to the upside. Therefore the bulls may want to take their profits there.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish  
It is not a surprise that the Cable has become bearish, following a good bullish run that has just ended. Since the price was unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.7150 (not to mention closing above it), it gave way to gravity. From that distribution territory, the price has gone downwards by roughly 180 pips. The price is now trading below the distribution territory at 1.7000; it could go towards the accumulation territory at 1.6900.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bullish  
Unlike most other JPY pairs, the USD/JPY did not go seriously downwards because of the strength in the Greenback. The bull is now flexing his muscle, pushing the price upwards; and this has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. The price may easily test the supply level at 102.00: it may even break it to the upside, going further north.  On the other hand, there is a risk of a sudden pullback, which may take the price towards the demand level at 101.50.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish   
This is a strongly trending market – with a marked weakness. The price dived and tested the demand zone at 136.50, after which it bounced upwards. The upwards bounce may be contained at the supply zones of 137.50 and 138.00. From these zones, the price may go downwards again towards the demand zone at 136.50.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“…The fundamental factors suggest what ought to happen in the market, while the technical factors suggest what actually is happening in the market” – Richard Schabacker



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