Thursday, July 31, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 4 - 8, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair has been able to continue its southward journey. The price is now going below the resistance line at 1.3400.  The resistance line is a war zone between the bulls and the bears, for the price would be making some attempts to breach it to the upside. Should the initial resistance line get broken to the upside, another resistance line at 1.3450 would serve as another hurdle for the bulls. A break above the resistance line at 1.3450 would pose a serious threat to the bearish trend. Meanwhile, the bearish trend may continue, thus pushing the price towards the support lines at 1.3350 and 0.3300.

Dominant bias: Bullish   
As it was forecasted last week, the USD/CHF was able to test the resistance level at 0.9100. This is an area where some bulls would like to take their profits, because the price ought to retrace southwards from there. For the bullish journey to continue, the price needs to break that resistance level to the upside, going towards another resistance level at 0.9150. Should the price fail to do this, a near-term or medium-term bearish run would  begin.

Dominant bias: Bearish  
The Cable dived by about 120 pips this week. The bearish outlook is currently strong, forming a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart. The price has a great probability of continuing further downwards, testing the accumulation territories at 1.6850 and 1.6800 respectively. On the other hand, the distribution territories at 1.6950 and 1.7000 should act as impediment to any rallies along the way.

Dominant bias: Bullish  
The Greenback is strong; no wonder the USD/JPY rallied, especially in the face of the weakness in the Yen. The market has tested the supply level at 103.00, which must be broken to the upside before the northward movement can continue. Otherwise, there could be some deep pullbacks that might take the price towards the demand levels at 102.50 and 102.00.  

Dominant bias: Bullish  
The EUR itself is not that strong, but as a result of an exponential weakness in the JPY, the EUR/JPY cross has been able to reject the recent bearish bias on it, paving way for a new bullish signal in the market. As long as the price stays above the demand zone at 137.00, the bullish signal would make sense. The price might even go upwards towards the supply zone at 138.00.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“The markets are, as it were, behavioral economics in action. And that is what you benefit from as a trend follower.” – Michael Covel


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