Friday, August 15, 2014

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (August 18 - 22, 2014)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair has continued to be weak, though the southward movement has been limited so far. In fact, there is a constant struggle between the bull and the bear, which has resulted in a high volatility. The resistance line at 1.3400 has been battered a few times (bearing the brunt of the struggle in the market). While the possibility of a serious rally holds, the pair could still go further downwards, reaching the strong support line at 1.3300. In the meantime, a stronger bearish bias is needed to break the tough support line at 1.3350 to the downside.  

Dominant bias: Bullish   
On the USDCHF, there is a great support level at 0.9000 and a formidable resistance level at 0.9100. The price presently hovers between the two market levels, while the resistance level at 0.9100 faces more challenge from the buyers. This resistance level was tested several times between August 5 and 7, 2014: it was also tested this week. The price is supposed to go upwards again to test the resistance level. The resistance level ought to be broken to the upside as the bullish trend continues. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 0.9000 would mean the end of the bullish outlook.    

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This currency trading instrument is weak, and the weakness has started since the middle of July 2014. The price has dropped by about 500 pips since then. This week alone, the price has dropped by over 100 pips. There could be another movement to the downside, which could take the price towards the accumulation territories at 1.6650 and 1.6600. Any rallies in the price should be short-term: they should be contained at the distribution territories at 1.6800 and 1.6850.  

Dominant bias: Bullish
Since the JPY is weaker than the USD, it is not a surprise that this pair has been going upwards in a slow and steady manner. In fact, there is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could go on towards the supply level at 103.00 within the next several trading days.

Dominant bias: Bearish  
The bearish outlook on this cross is now under a threat - any journey above the supply zone at 137.50 would mean the beginning of a new bullish outlook and the end of the current bearish outlook. But as long as the price cannot break the aforementioned supply zone to the upside, the bearish bias would be rational.   

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Cut short your losses; let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo (1772 - 1823)  

Learn from the Generals of the Markets: Market Generals

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