Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Thanksgiving Rally on Gold and Silver: Will It Happen in the Year 2015?

Historical data reveals that Gold tends to rally during Thanksgiving celebration in the U.S. – which is held on the 4th Thursday of November of each year. Gold rally often takes place in the week in which the celebration is observed, but in order to check the validity of this trading idea, we would like to remind you of what happened in the past 12 years.

From years 2002 to 2012, Thanksgiving rally happened in each of the year, sometimes moderately and sometimes significantly, which resulted in 100% accuracy within those 10 years. Nevertheless, the Thanksgiving effect did not take place in years 2013 and 2014. With this fact at our disposal, it is interesting to know that within the last 12 years, Thanksgiving rally took place 10 times.

Now the question is: Would we witness another Thanksgiving effect in the year 2015? Since the effect did not take place in the last 2 years, some might think that it could be due to happen this year. If the effect would happen, then it is supposed to take place any time from now; but it must be before the end of this week.

The dominant bias on Gold (XAUUSD) is bearish, for price has moved south perpetually. At this juncture, there is a shallow bullish divergence, following a recent oversold condition in the market. Normally, the bullish attempt ought to be another short-selling opportunity, but a Thanksgiving effect could aid the bulls’ effort, providing that it takes place again this year.

Since Silver (XAGUSD) tends to move in a positive correlation with Gold, the Thanksgiving effect also takes place on it. If the effect did not take place on Gold, it will not also take place on Silver. The dominant bias on Silver is currently bearish – and the price formation on it is quite similar to that of Gold.  


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