Wednesday, January 6, 2016

2016 Technical Reviews on Gold and Silver

Long-term bias: Bearish
In 2015, Gold topped at 1307.35 and later reached a low of 1046.21. Gold was engaged in perpetual and persistent downtrend, trapping bulls with short-term bullish movements. It is completely irrational to open long trades in the market, because the bears have really made their presence felt for a long time. Years 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all strongly bearish, which explains one of the reasons why the Thanksgiving effects did not take place in those 3 years. Since this is a market that currently favors sellers, it would be rational to seek short trades only (using upward bounces opportunities to sell short, especially when bearish candles form following such upward bounces). 

Long-term bias: Bearish   
Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver has been in a persistent downtrend since the year 2013. In this kind of market, the best trading approach is to ignore bullish signals and capitalize on bearish signals. Bullish signals could also be taken as chances to enter short at better prices, which offer lower risk as long as the long-term bias remains bearish. Last year, price reached a high of 18.4500 and a low of 13.6100 – a low that could be breached to the downside this year. In this market, it is recommended that rallies should be viewed with suspicion until there is a “Golden Cross,” which is a situation in which price closes above the EMA 200 on the daily chart, trending upwards. This is when it can be safely said that the bearish trend is over.

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