EURUSD
Long-term bias: Bearish
EURUSD was generally bearish in 2015, reaching a
low of 1.0462 and a high of 1.1712. The
last week of that year was bearish, and the bearishness could continue till
February 2016. From February to April, we would witness serious bullish effort,
which would be eased at the end of April, because bears would come in again and
make their presence felt in the market from April to June. However, a new lease
of bullish journey would be resumed in the market around October/November,
which would last till the end of the year (it would even go beyond the year,
into 2017, ending around February 2017). The ongoing bias is now bearish and
this should be honored.
USDCHF
Long-term bias: Bullish
Since the large pullback that was seen in January
2015, USDCHF has been making perpetual effort to go upwards. Along the way,
there were occasional instances of medium-term bearish phases in the market.
The bearish phases would last for few weeks or months, only for price to
recover and go up higher. In 2016, there could be intermittent phases of
weakness in January. Then the market would most likely show further weakness in
the months of February to April; but we can witness a smooth rally in the
months of April to June. Right now, price is making attempts to go up, and it
could reach the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 in the first full week
of January.
GBPUSD
Long-term bias: Bearish
The short-term, the
medium-term, and the long-term biases on GBPUSD are all bearish. Price reached
a low of 1.4565 and a high of 1.5929 in the year 2015. Since June 2015, price has
come down by 1100 pips, closing at 1.4732 on December 31, 2015. The year 2014
saw far more predictable movements on GBPUSD than the year 2015 (as it was true
of other major pairs and crosses). This year might be different. At the
present, the bias on the GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) is bearish and this would
continue till March 2016. The market could rally between March and May of this
year. It could even continue to rally in June and July; but not without visible
gravity attempts from the bears. Following this, there might not be another
serious weakness in the market until December 2016.
USDJPY
Long-term bias:
Bearish
On this pair, bears won a
pyrrhic victory in the year 2015. The struggle between bears and bulls were so
intense that the market phases for that year were mostly consolidations and
fake-out phases. The year 2014 was even better than the year 2015. The current
bias is bearish, but bulls might gain upper hands before the end of January;
plus their victory could last till June (though not with occasional pullbacks
along the way). The market might go through some phases of weakness within July
and September. Nevertheless, the bulls would push the price higher around October
– an action that could last till December.
EURJPY
Long-term bias:
Bearish
Last year, the EURJPY cross was characterized by high volatility,
choppy movements and deadly struggles between bulls and bears. The extant
weakness might continue till February, when price would be strengthened till
April 2016. The best action to take in the market would be to seek shorting
opportunities between April and September. Additionally, the market might rally
from September to November; while we would witness another phases of choppy and
volatile movements in December 2016.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“You will have to
stick to your process as much as you can even when things do not go as
expected. If you can build such a process and manage to follow it 100 per cent
of the time, then you will be trading like a professional.” – Pierre Veyret
What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html
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