Saturday, April 9, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (April 11 - 15, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Bullish   
In the context of a downtrend, EURUSD consolidated throughout last week. One big formidable barrier to further northward journey is the resistance line 1.1400 (though the resistance line at 1.1450 was also tested). Bulls were unable to breach the resistance line at 1.1400 to the upside in spite of many forays into it. This week would be decisive for the pair. First, a breakout to the upside or the downside would happen. It would most probably be to the downside, should bulls fail to push price above the aforementioned resistance line. In case, price goes above the resistance line and remain above it, it would spell a defeat for bears.      

Dominant bias: Bearish
This pair experienced a flat movement last week, not reaching, nor going below the support level at 0.9500 in spite of the fact that the bias is bearish. By the indication in the chart, the market would most likely go further south this week, which would be corroborated by the ability of USDCHF to go below the support level at 0.9500. In case the pair fails to achieve this, a considerable rally would be witnessed.   

Dominant bias: Bearish  
Cable was very volatile last week – reaching a high of 1.4319 and a low of 1.4004. The overall sentiment is negative, but bulls are not keeping their fingers crossed in this situation, for they are making attempts to effect a rally. One thing should be noted: The possibility of GBP gaining stamina is very high this week. GBP might be seen strengthening versus other major pairs; an event that could start this week. Therefore, the current bearish bias on the market might be challenged and eventually invalidated.  

Dominant bias: Bearish
Since March 29, 2016, USDJPY has dropped by nearly 600 pips. Last week alone, price dropped by at least, 350 pips. This has caused a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. After all, it had been forecasted that that JPY pairs might become weak before the end of this month, and the weakness started earlier than anticipated. On USDJPY, bears are still determined to reach the demand levels at 107.50, 107.00 and 106.50.     
Dominant bias: Bearish
This cross dropped 450 pips last week alone, almost testing the demand zone at 122.50.  The shallow northward effort that was witnessed around the end of the weak is cleanly negligible, for price is expected to continue its southwards journey this week, reaching the support zones at 122.50, 122.00 and 121.50. Long trades do not look rational in the market, unless there is a clear sign of Yen easing.       

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“When you take action, and make enough trades, the odds may work in your favor, and you'll end up with profits. So as you trade, take an action-oriented approach. As Mark Douglas suggests in "Trading in the Zone," the more you find excuses to avoid making trades, the less likely you'll be at actually taking home profits. But if you look for an edge, and use this edge to make numerous trades, you'll increase your chances of success. In trading, there are proven strategies that work under specific market conditions. If you look hard enough, you'll find them, and use them to your advantage.” – Joe Ross (Source:

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