Saturday, June 11, 2016

Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (June 13 - 17, 2016)

Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Neutral
For the most part of May 2016, EURUSD was in a downtrend. On June 3, a strong bullish breakout led to a bullish signal, but price was unable to continue moving up continuously in the following week, which was last week. Price simply went up 50 pips, hit the resistance line at 1.1400 and then nosedived. This has forced the market into a neutral territory, since the bullish gains of June 3 had been rendered useless by the strong bearish correction that took place within June 9 and 10 (whereas bears cannot claim any dominance until price goes below the resistance line at 1.1150). It is likely that EURUSD would continue to go downwards this week, though the bias may not turn bearish until the resistance line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside. For the bias to turn bullish again, price needs to go above the resistance line at 1.1350.

Dominant bias: Bearish  
This pair decline 180 pips last week, going briefly below the support level at 0.9600 before closing above that support level. Since June 3, 2016, price has declined by 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9577. The support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500 are the next targets for bears this week. Any movement above the resistance level at 0.9800 would put the bearish outlook in a precarious position.  

Dominant bias: Bearish  
Contrary to expectation, Cable moved south by 460 pips last week, after testing the distribution territory at 1.4650.  Prior to this, price moved upwards by 260 pips between Monday and Tuesday. It has been mentioned that GBP pairs would experience strong volatility this month (plus NZD pairs). This is because GBP pairs usually move strongly in June while most other pairs experience low volatility. Bremain/Brexit issues are only a catalyst that will spur the usual strong movements on GBP pairs this June. This week, GBP might behave like it did last week: We would witness strong bullish and bearish movements.  

Dominant bias: Bearish
USD/JPY merely went flat throughout last week. Even the faint bullish attempt that was seen on Monday and Tuesday meant nothing when compared to the ongoing bearish outlook. There is a possibility that JPY pairs would trend downwards this week, and so, USDJPY might go further south to test the demand levels at 106.00 and 105.50.           
Dominant bias: Bearish
Between June 6 and 7, this cross went upwards close to 170 pips, but further rally was rejected at the supply zone at 122.50. From that zone, price went down 250 pips, to close at 120.37 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further decline could be witnessed this week. Therefore, the demand zones at 120.00 and 110.00 would be interesting to watch.  

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Even after all these years, I still feel passionate about trading. I love trying to find profit opportunities. It's a great achievement when you can beat the pros.” - Jay McGivney

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