Here’s the market outlook for the week:
EURUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral
This pair has consolidated so far this month. Price has been ranging
between the support line at 1.2250 and the resistance line at 1.2450. This week
may see an end to the neutrality of the market, as price would either move
above the resistance line at 1.2450 (staying above it); or it would move below
the support line at 0.2250 (staying below it). However, a strong movement to
the south is much more likely this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR
pairs.
USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bullish
In the short-term, this pair is bullish. Since the support level at
0.9200 was tested in February 16, 2018, price has rallied by over 350 pips, moving
briefly above the resistance level at 0.9550. The market has been corrected
lower since then, closing below the resistance level at 0.9500. A rally from
here would save the bullish bias; while a plunge from here would render it
invalid. Nonetheless, the market is more likely to go upwards as a result of a
bearish outlook on
EURUSD.
GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Bullish
The bias on GBPUSD has become bullish again, for
price went upwards by 250 pups last week. Even the movement this month has been
largely bullish (price has gained a minimum of 400 pips). The distribution
territory at 1.4200 was tested, but price closed below the distribution
territory at 1.4100 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern the
market, which points to a possibility of further bullish journey, as price
targets the distribution territories of 1.4150, 1.4200 and 1.4250. This,
nevertheless, cannot rule out a possibility of a strong pullback in the market.
GBP pairs will experience high volatility this week.
USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The pair traded southwards last week, to corroborate the presence of
bears. Since January 8, 2018, price has lost 830 pips. It lost 170 pips last
week, after testing the supply level at 106.50. Since there is a huge Bearish
Confirmation Pattern in the market, price can still reach the demand levels at 104.50,
104.00 and 103.50 before the end of this week. A rally may occur along the way,
but it should not be something that would override the extant bearish outlook
on the market.
EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
Although the market is choppy, the bearish trend has been maintained. Price has been going southward since February
5, having lost almost 800 pips since then. Last week, there was a rally attempt
in the context of an uptrend, which was halted once the supply zone at 131.50
was tested. The market shed 250 pips following that, to test the demand zone at
129.00, and closed below the supply zone at 129.50. The expected weakness in
EUR, as well as the bearish outlook on the market, may enable the demand zones
at 129.00, 128.50 and 128.00 to be tested this week.
GBPJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish
The cross is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term.
This is a choppy market: An abortive bullish attempt was made last week, but
that was rejected as the supply zone at 150.00 was tested. Price came down
after that, thus cancelling the short-term effect of the bullish attempt. This
week, there may not be any rallies that will cancel the existing bearishness in
the market. Price could go further southwards, but it is not expected to go
below the demand zone at 145.00, which is the ultimate target for the week.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“Volatility is good for trading… Volatility
can and should be used to a trader’s advantage. It all comes back to
understanding and believing in your trading system.” - Jasper Lawler
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