Sunday, March 10, 2013

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 11 - 15, 2013)

Primary trend: Bearish
There has been a recent potential reversal on this pair. The bullish reversal is noteworthy, but not significant enough to override the major bearish outlook. It is better to wait for further confirmation before new positions are opened (at least for a few more trading days). Whether the current scenario is a transitory rally in the context of a downtrend or it is the beginning of a new trend remains to be seen.

Primary trend: Bullish
Despite the current pullback in the market, the long-term bullish bias on the USDCHF still holds. Since the beginning of February 2013, this pair has moved upwards by more than 300 pips – a slow but steady progress indeed! Right now, the pullback in the market is not expected to go below the support level at 0.9400 or at worst, it should be halted by the immediate support level at 0.9350, after that. It is expected that this pair goes in a continuous bullish journey. 

Primary trend: Bearish
The Cable continues its weakness – a scenario that is expected to hold out longer than this. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, as indicators support a bearish bias. Any rally in this market is simply an opportunity to sell short and sell dearer. The trend is never over until it is actually over, so it is possible for the price to reach the next accumulation zone at 1.4900 in the long run. 

Primary trend: Bullish
This is a bull market, and it has risen by around 170 pips recently. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the chart; the price is still expected to continue going upwards. There could be some temporary bearish corrections pulling the price backwards to the market levels at 94.50 and 94.00 respectively. But eventually, the buying pressure should push the price towards the supply levels of 95.50 and 96.00. 

Primary trend: Bullish
This cross traded in some tight range recently, before the price broke the market zone of 122.00 to the upside. Shortly after this, the price shot northwards by more than 250 pips on Thursday (March 7, 2013). Now, the new bullish signal has been confirmed. This seems to just be the beginning, and while transient bearish corrections could occur along the way, the price may trend upwards and reach the supply zones of 125.00 and 126.00.

Conclusion: The major bias would invariably exert a strong influence on the possibility of profitability of your speculative methodology. We cannot afford to use a method suitable for an equilibrium market when following a great trend; which means that a trading method suitable for equilibrium markets ought to be used in equilibrium markets. Nevertheless, should the price show any sign of great momentum, it should be followed.

This article is concluded with the quote below:

“Your goal should be optimal profits, not emotional comfort.” - Ziad Masri

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