Monday, March 25, 2013

Weekly Trading Forecasts (March 25 - 29, 2013)

Primary trend: Bearish
The dominant bias here is bearish, and this is expected to continue, especially in the face of perpetual weakness in the Euro. There could, however, be some short-term rallies in the price, probably taking the price towards the resistance line of 1.3000. For the bearish trend to be valid, the rally ought not to go beyond the aforementioned resistance line. Meanwhile, the price could reach the support line of 1.2800 in the trading days to come.

Primary trend: Bullish
Recently, the USDCHF pair has traded in a tight range. The pair is expected to shoot out of the equilibrium zone very soon. When this does happen, it is more likely that the pair would go northwards, for the indicators on the chart confirm northward possibility in the market (especially as long as the USD has more stamina than the CHF).  Any short-term pullbacks are not supposed to take the price more downwards than the support level 0.9400, while the bullish pressure may take the price towards the resistance level of 0.9550.

Primary trend: Bullish
The trend on the Cable is now bullish and would continue to be bullish. Recently, this wonderful instrument has moved upwards by more than 110 pips, even in the face of recent volatility and turbulence. The indicators on the chart shows a Bullish Confirmation Pattern, plus the current event in the market has proven that buyers have been able to reject any bearish threats. The price may soon reach the distribution territory at 1.5300.

Primary trend: Bearish
There is a ‘sell’ signal on every JPY pair and the USDJPY is no exception. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart, and it would sound judicious to seek short trades at this moment. In spite of transitory rally that may take the price to some supply level of 95.50, the demand level at 94.00 is not a lofty target, and further southward determination may bring the price towards that area (in due course).

Primary trend: Bearish
There is also a bearish signal on this cross. With the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart (indicators support a bearish bias), the price actions that support the bears would not be a surprise, should the price plunge towards the demand zone of 121.00. It must also be added that there would be some serious volatility along the way. In the near-term, any bullish correction could take the price back towards the supply zone of 123.00, but this is not expected to last too long. In the meantime, the price ought to reach the aforementioned, price zone.

Conclusion: If it happens that a price penetrates an accumulation or distribution territory, breaking through some important levels or shooting out of an equilibrium zone, it usually behaves with some intensity. Following this first shooting out, the price may slow down in its momentum. This is to allow it to decide that the novel bias is tenable. The price may revert towards, or even breach, the recent high or low in the market. Should a speculator who is caught in a wrong direction smooth his positions, and other speculators enter the market in favor of the novel bias, the price might be given a new lease of stamina as it shoots out again, going in the direction of the new bias. At this juncture, traders are advised to stay with the novel direction, not speculating in a contrarian manner towards it.

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